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Milan - San Remo Discussion
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 18-11-2017 13:02
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 Milan – San Remo
Welcome to Milan for the depart of the first monument of the season, La Classicissima; Milan – San Remo! Just shy of 300 kilometres in length, it’s a true test of any rider and, despite traditionally being a sprinters race, the final two ascents, over the Cipressa and the Poggio can allow a puncheur to escape or enable a powerful team to reduce the pack to a small group where punchy sprinters can excel.
The route is a pretty straight line from Milan – San Remo, true to the classic's historical route. The race begins in the Piazza del Duomo and is reasonably flat until the Passo del Turchino 140km in, which is the peak of the races altitude. Then the race descends to a right turn along the coast, on which it begins flat before reaching La Manie, then it continues along the coast with a few small bumps before the race turns for the Cipressa, which is 4.6km at 4.5% and peaks with about 20km left, before finally the Poggio di San Remo where a lighting fast 2.9km at 5% will greet the cyclists. Following that they will plummet down the climb past blind corners and stone walls before the final battle in San Remo!
History: | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | | 2007 | Filippo Pozzato | Paolo Bettini |  José Ivan Gutiérrez | | 2008 | Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez |  Stegan Schumacher | Paolo Bettini | | 2009 | Franco Pellizotti | Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez | Kpaquin Rodriguez Oliver | | 2010 | Filippo Pozzato |  Gert Steegmans | Alessandro Ballan | | 2011 | Alessandro Ballan |  Sam Bewley | Santo Anza | | 2012 | Diego Ulissi | Filippo Pozzato | Gert Steegmans | | 2013 | Tom Boonen | Sam Bewley | Daniele Bennati | | 2014 | Riccardo Ricco |  Tejay Van Garderen | Phillipe Gilbert | | 2015 | Sam Bewley |  Mikhail ignatiev |  Edvald Boassen Hagen | | 2016 | Sam Bewley | John Degenkolb | Michael Van Stayen |
Most recently of course the dominant Sam Bewley has steamed past a late attack in the final kilometre two years in a row, however the last Italian winner, Ricco was caught right on the line as he raised his arms, proving a break can win. As for the other races, in 2013 Tom Boonen triumphed over Bewley in a sprint, while 2012 and 2011 were also both solo breaks caught on the line. It’s been a long time since a group of riders have escaped or at least a solo man with a considerable gap, in 2008 Samuel Sanchez did that. While 2007 and 2009 saw Pozzato and Pellizoti sprint out of small groups. So certainly a range of possible results, recent history says a bunch sprint but overall attacks winning have been the norm in the history of this race.
Favourites: | Sprinters | SP | ACC | HL | FL | STA | Sprinters | SP | ACC | HL | FL | STA |  Swift | 84 | 82 | 68 | 74 | 73 |  Boeckmans | 81 | 83 | 68 | 73 | 74 |  Degenkolb | 84 | 81 | 69 | 76 | 73 |  Roelandts | 81 | 80 | 71 | 75 | 75 |  Bewley | 83 | 83 | 71 | 78 | 78 | Zabel | 81 | 79 | 69 | 74 | 74 |  Ahlstrand | 83 | 82 | 67 | 74 | 74 |  Saber | 81 | 79 | 68 | 75 | 74 |  Kristoff | 83 | 79 | 68 | 75 | 75 | Enger | 81 | 78 | 69 | 73 | 71 |  Coquard | 82 | 83 | 65 | 73 | 71 |  Holloway | 80 | 82 | 69 | 78 | 77 | | Guarnieri | 82 | 81 | 66 | 76 | 77 |  Stauff | 80 | 81 | 65 | 74 | 74 |  Grosu | 82 | 80 | 73 | 73 | 74 |  Petit | 80 | 78 | 65 | 76 | 76 |  Vanderbiest | 82 | 77 | 64 | 74 | 74 | Van Poppel | 80 | 78 | 64 | 72 | 74 |
Many pure sprinters hope the peloton can stick together for a sprint to the finish and more often than not the race obliges and they can dash it out. Sam Bewley is the foremost of these, he won the race the past two years and he is going for the hatrick this year. The Kiwi has proven that the course poses no challenge to him with his victories, all eyes will be on him.
Of course, other sprinters will be keen to beat him in the finale, foremost amongst them are Swift and Degenkolb, both have high top speed and are of similar quantities on this course. The German as well finished second last year and will want to go one better.
Given the long course, it’s worth mentioning that riders like Guarnieri, Kristoff, Roelandts and Holloway quite like these long races but other sprinters like Ahlstrand, Coquard, Grosu, Vanderbiest and Boeckmans can’t be counted out.
| Puncheurs | SP | ACC | HL | FL | STA | Punchuers | SP | ACC | HL | FL | STA |  Ponzi | 76 | 80 | 84 | 76 | 77 | Koretzky | 71 | 79 | 80 | 73 | 77 |  Gianni | 66 | 74 | 83 | 73 | 78 | Klemme | 66 | 66 | 80 | 71 | 74 | | Sagan | 73 | 76 | 82 | 72 | 78 | Dowsett | 66 | 71 | 80 | 70 | 74 |  Trofimov | 73 | 75 | 82 | 73 | 79 | Boswell | 65 | 76 | 80 | 70 | 77 |  Kelderman | 67 | 72 | 82 | 70 | 80 | Bilbao | 71 | 75 | 79 | 71 | 77 |  Gastauer | 67 | 76 | 82 | 69 | 78 | Bystrom | 68 | 76 | 79 | 72 | 75 |
The puncheurs who will want to use the Poggio or Cipressa for as a launching pad for a solo or small group to enter San Remo without the heavy weight of sprinters. Prime amongst these is Ponzi and the fans lining the climbs will cheer his name. He is perfect for a breakaway too, as he has the power for the streets of San Remo and the sprint to beat any companions. On the climbs themselves, his biggest competitor will be his compatriot Gianni who is a worldclass puncheur.
Many riders will want to beat the Italians if the puncheurs decide the race though, Trofimov represents the Russian threat and Gastauer the Luxembourg challenge. Kelderman has an interesting complex in his teammate Demare as he may choose to focus on making the pace in the pack difficult for his teammate rather than his own gains. Sagan will have even bigger problems, because his DS won’t be happy if he destroys Bewley’s chances. Koretzky, Boswell and Dowsett are other examples of men who can escape.
| Punchy Sprinters | SP | ACC | HL | FL | STA | Barodeurs | SP | ACC | HL | FL | STA |  Van Stayen | 83 | 78 | 79 | 76 | 76 |  Ignatiev | 72 | 82 | 75 | 80 | 81 | | Demare | 80 | 81 | 79 | 73 | 75 | Hermans | 66 | 73 | 75 | 77 | 78 | | Van der Lijke | 80 | 79 | 75 | 73 | 73 | Coppel | 65 | 74 | 76 | 77 | 78 | | Van Avermaet | 78 | 78 | 76 | 78 | 78 | Bellis | 74 | 75 | 78 | 75 | 80 |  Houle | 78 | 78 | 75 | 78 | 76 | Gerts | 70 | 70 | 75 | 75 | 74 | | Reimer | 77 | 80 | 75 | 75 | 77 | Bol | 62 | 67 | 76 | 75 | 71 |
| Barodeurs | SP | ACC | HL | FL | STA | Barodeurs | SP | ACC | HL | FL | STA | | Stoltz | 62 | 74 | 68 | 80 | 76 | Malori | 63 | 68 | 68 | 78 | 74 | | Maes | 62 | 67 | 67 | 80 | 79 | Feng | 60 | 62 | 73 | 78 | 74 | | Dzamastagic | 76 | 78 | 70 | 78 | 76 | Breen | 73 | 72 | 70 | 77 | 72 | | Kluge | 77 | 75 | 68 | 78 | 77 | Hansen | 73 | 80 | 65 | 77 | 74 | | Oss | 74 | 74 | 74 | 78 | 76 | Wohler | 71 | 72 | 66 | 77 | 72 | | Kolesnikov | 70 | 77 | 72 | 78 | 76 | Mundle | 59 | 69 | 64 | 77 | 68 |
Then of course come the riders who blend the line between these two categories. The Kings of this are the punchy sprinters, Van Stayen and Demare are literally made for this course, the perfect situation for them is to hit it out from a small group of 30 riders or so but more likely they’ll be forced to make a tough choice, attack to escape the strong sprinters but risk blowing yourself up or hope the hill tires out or drops enough sprinters on its own. Last year the Belgian let the sprint decide it and he finished third, maybe this year he’ll be more aggressive? Either way both will be in their element.
Van der Lijke also fits into a similar profile to them but being weaker on hills and sprints it’s hard to see him beating the two greats but he can still score a good result if he plays it right, so too for Houle and Reimer. Cobbles star Van Avermaet is also a good punchy sprinter in his own right but he may find himself doing lead-out duties as a very powerful ally for Van Stayen.
Then there are riders with really big engines who may not necessarily be favourites but can surprise the favourites with their strength. Some have strong leaders who they may be forced to work for but also have the capacity to use their leaders as a pretence to go under the radar and attack, an example of this is Stoltz and Dzamastagic working for Evonik or Kluge and Maes for Iberia.
However the key examples of this type of extremely powerful rider don’t have too much pressure on to do domestique duties and are perfect dark horses. Ignatiev, Coppel and Hermans are perfect dark horse riders to surprise all the favourties, especially as they can get over a hill quite well before exhibiting their power in the streets of San Remo, Ignatiev even has already displayed this when he finished 2nd in 2015.
Overall many riders can win this race, which makes it such a brilliant event so we’ll see you for 300 kilometres of gruelling racing before a ripping fast finish of the 2017 Milano – San Remo!
Startlist:
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| roturn |
Posted on 18-11-2017 13:16
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While this race is perfect for Demare/Van Stayen, I expect it to be won by either a top puncheur after an attack or by a top sprinter. Most likely Bewley.
Though with Swift having won a hill stage now, I guess this is a must win. P
Top5 would be nice to get here. |
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| viking90 |
Posted on 18-11-2017 13:27
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Huge preview to a huge race!
We have a Top 10 goal here, we got riders who can do that in different scenarios. Ahlstrand in a bunchsprint and if it comes down to that he should make Top 10.
If it gets to hard for him we have Reimer as an alternative in a sprint with tired sprinters or Bystrom can make an attack for it which we have lowest hopes on. |
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 18-11-2017 13:35
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Why even bother to do a preview if we all know that Bewley is going to win 
Let's go crazy and say that Sagan will win this 
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 18-11-2017 13:36
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Brilliant preview, thanks for that!
Decided to not bring Bobridge and see, what the other guys can do. Burghardt has been our best scorer here in the past, but I doubt Vanspeybrouck will do the same. If Saber has a good day, he may get us a few points. Our barodeurs getting a mention is nice, though I can't see them doing well except of Feng maybe. No expectations, so no pressure here. We would welcome any surprise though, since P-N did not go too well eventually.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 18-11-2017 13:36
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Top 3 season goal. Probably the (one-day) race with the biggest scoring potential all season long.
We're leaving Ciolek home to ensure Demare will get priority this year after that awful 2016 edition, but I'm really scared of this race after P-N and several other races lately.
Behind him, we send the strongest possible team to either attack and make the race hard, or to sweep up the minor positions.
Kelderman and Herklotz hopefully try something in the final, Felline and Arndt can sprint in the slipstreams, Bongiorno and Bol are the best remaining puncheurs and Lander might survive the hills.
Overall I'm very doubtful of that Top 3 goal, but I hope good daily form can get Demare there. If we miss out, I at least hope it's not by much (for financial reasons which stand above sportive success this season) and that we can make up the lost points with good depth in the Top 30.
He might get completely ignored by the AI though...
Incredible preview!!!
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 18-11-2017 13:59
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Top 3 goal I believe... Allez Romain!...
No, really, no hopes...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 18-11-2017 14:00
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Come on, Edi! We need a big one.
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| knockout |
Posted on 18-11-2017 14:24
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Outstanding preview! Love it!
Monuments are prime time for Evonik and after the streak of 5 consecutive monument podiums snapped in Lombardia it's time to start a new streak.And we really need it after a weak season start. Top 3 goal as well.
As written in my newest HQ posts I decided to go all in on Van Stayen as I didn't like how the AI used puncheurs in this race last season so Skujins isn't here. Getting a leadout train would be a dream with GVA and Dzamastagic but that didn't work out often in San Remo. Anyway, I have a strong squad here and I would love if we would put eliminate some favourites with pain on the flat with our flat beasts. Hoping for a sprint finish of course.
Bewley has finished this race on every podium spot but 3rd so a third place for him would be quite cool... 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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Posted on 07-12-2025 08:36
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| Shonak |
Posted on 18-11-2017 14:35
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Top notch preview, loved reading it and here's hoping we see some action from Barodeurs for cancesque MSR finish but unfortunately MSR isn't too kind to them.
I would be happy with two Top 10s from my guys and potentially seeing an attack by Hermans or Hansen. 
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| SotD |
Posted on 18-11-2017 18:49
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Nice preview. Really well done!
We got basically all areas covered with Coquard, Koretzky and Coppel, but neither are strong enough to deliver a top result.
Not quite sure what to expect. Can we get a top 10, then I'd be very happy. Hopefully we can get some good depth points.
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| Spilak23 |
Posted on 18-11-2017 23:54
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Looking forward to our PT debut.
Ignatiev is the team leader here with a good team around him. Hopefully he can show himself in the final. Top 10 is the goal but we're dreaming of a podium. Modolo is also well suited to this race but lacks a bit of speed I think in the sprint.
Hoping Bewley doesn't win so he doesn't pass Pippo.
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 19-11-2017 01:31
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Hopefully the race itself is as exciting as the preview!
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 19-11-2017 08:37
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Second to none preview trekbmc, such a nice read.
I think its between Swift/Degenkolb/Bewley but the charm of La Classicissima di primavera is that it can go so many ways.
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| roturn |
Posted on 19-11-2017 09:26
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Wow, This went bad.
Loved the AI that puncheurs attacked and sprinters got dropped due to it. Unlucky that this year I went for full sprinters with Swift only...pity Villella didn`t try something at least.
Deserved winners there and good to see the hilly sprinters being rewarded for once. Even more bad luck for SN to lose Van der Lijke in a potential top5 race.
And wtf Borges! This is his 2nd race, where he just appears in the top spots. Those kind of results really help Porto to stay up I guess.
Great report. Though your Festina bikes look like you haven`t properly installed the PCM.Daily EP Pack.  |
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 19-11-2017 09:42
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Wow, I knew this wasn't going to be good for us, but this was just horrible.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 19-11-2017 09:42
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Reimer should have managed that top 10 goal here if he stayed upfront instead. What a bad decision. Maybe should have leaved Ahlstrand out of this race.
We still got a good amount of pts thanks to the depth here but dissapointed anyway how this turned out.
Thanks for the report. |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 19-11-2017 09:47
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Respectable result for Haas as 22nd, but other than that, I'm not happy with how riders like Vanspeybrouck got dropped here. Well, couldn't expect a high finish anyway, but with some other teams like Prio regularly scoring, we just finished off a bad month, I fear.
Congrats, MVS. Surely a race, where a rider like him has to deliver and he did.
Thanks for the report!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 19-11-2017 09:48
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Congrats knockout, all that money on Van Staeyen finaly pays off
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 19-11-2017 10:06
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Great race seen from a neutral point of view!
Congrats to knockout, and also cheers to Gustavovskiy with Bruno Borges 4th, remarkably result with the competition he had to face.
Edited by Tamijo on 19-11-2017 20:32
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