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SAA Tour d'Afrique Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 20-05-2021 09:28
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 SAA Tour d’Afrique
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Preview
The SAA Tour d’Afrique is the first of just two PT stage races on the African continent. But while the Tour de Maroc will be the last opportunity for the major stage racers to shine in October, the Tour d’Afrique is sprinters turf.
For a while, you might have called this race the Tour de Ben Swift, as the Brit won all three editions from the race’s inception in 2016 through 2018. But he hasn’t competed last year when the race dropped to HC for a season and won’t this year either, so the door is wide open for defending champion  Ahlstrand to come closer to his record or for a new name to write his name on the list of winners.
We have four flat stages and they're relatively straightforward. There are a few minor difficulties on all stages, including in the final few kilometers of the first two, but if this turns out to be anything but four mass sprints, it would certainly be a surprise.
Another thing of note is the distribution of mountain sprints, with only one in the first three days - claim the mountain jersey on stage one and you can keep it for three days at least. But obviously, that’s more of a sideshow, so let’s have a look at the main guys we’ll see in action:
| FL | SP | AC | ST | RS |  Degenkolb | 76 | 84 | 81 | 73 | 71 | | Ahlstrand | 74 | 83 | 82 | 74 | 73 |  Ewan | 75 | 83 | 81 | 73 | 71 |  Grosu | 73 | 83 | 80 | 74 | 70 |  Bewley | 77 | 82 | 82 | 77 | 75 |  Kennaugh | 77 | 82 | 81 | 74 | 71 |  Demare | 73 | 82 | 81 | 75 | 72 |
Degenkolb and Ahlstrand might be considered the top favorites, but Ewan, Grosu and Bewley certainly aren’t far behind, none of them winning would be a major surprise.
Some of them also have great leadouts, specifically Petit, Appollonio and Van Poppel. Those could be the key pieces to some of the prominent sprint trains we might see.
Kennaugh and Demare are also elite sprinters who should be in striking distance of stage and GC glory at any time.
| FL | SP | AC | ST | RS |  Guarnieri | 75 | 81 | 80 | 76 | 75 |  Vesely | 73 | 81 | 80 | 74 | 68 |  Samolenkov | 74 | 81 | 79 | 75 | 71 |  Cavendish | 71 | 81 | 78 | 71 | 68 | | Haller | 72 | 80 | 79 | 72 | 71 |  Pedersen | 77 | 78 | 77 | 78 | 80 |
Guarnieri is probably closest to the guys in Tier I with his excellent secondary stats, but lacks the high-end speed to make that group. Vesely suffers a bit from a lack of resistance, but is still a contender for top results here, as is Samolenkov. Tinkoff also brings Moser to serve as a potential leadout.
The roles are slightly less clear at Kraftwerk, where Cavendish and Haller are very close in abilities, although the Brit will likely get the nod as team leader. Pedersen typically wouldn’t be this high as a sprinter, his pure speed isn’t up there, but his rouleur abilities are just outstanding and might benefit him especially in some of the longer stages.
| FL | SP | AC | ST | RS |  Afewerki | 73 | 79 | 80 | 77 | 70 |  Lay | 73 | 79 | 81 | 68 | 66 |  Stauff | 73 | 79 | 79 | 72 | 67 | | Lander | 77 | 79 | 77 | 77 | 72 | | Canelon | 77 | 78 | 83 | 65 | 69 |  Mohs | 72 | 80 | 77 | 68 | 59 | | Vingerling | 71 | 79 | 79 | 72 | 66 | | Thwaites | 73 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 70 |  Hayakawa | 73 | 79 | 79 | 75 | 68 |  Ackermann | 72 | 77 | 80 | 75 | 71 |  Silva | 75 | 77 | 78 | 69 | 70 |  Dzervus | 73 | 77 | 77 | 73 | 72 |  Cohen | 73 | 77 | 76 | 71 | 69 |  Gibbons | 73 | 76 | 76 | 71 | 71 |  Philipsen | 68 | 74 | 74 | 68 | 67 |  Bohli | 74 | 74 | 68 | 79 | 75 |
Lots and lots of depth here, it’s probably going to be a bit of a lottery for these guys to be in a position to snatch a good result here and there. Adastra and GCN decided to increase their odds by bringing three capable guys, with Lander and Vingerling given the Number 1 by their teams on the startlist. Afewerki, Lay and Hayakawa could also play a good role if things break right for them.
Everyone from Ackermann down is very much a long shot to achieve any kind of result and are mostly just listed to give every team at least a little bit of attention. This is obviously particularly the case for youngster Philipsen and cobblestone specialist Bohli.
| FL | SP | AC | | FL | SP | AC | | Andersen | 81 | 76 | 74 | Hansen | 77 | 73 | 80 | | Arashiro | 81 | 70 | 75 | Breen | 77 | 73 | 72 | | Per | 79 | 74 | 74 | Manakov | 77 | 72 | 76 | | Kneisky | 78 | 66 | 69 | Sagiv | 77 | 72 | 72 | | Malori | 78 | 63 | 68 | Gerts | 77 | 72 | 70 | | Feng | 78 | 60 | 62 | Mraouni | 77 | 71 | 74 |
To conclude, here’s a quick look at the rouleurs who could be candidates for the very unlikely szenario of a late attack. And also, the full startlist:
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 20-05-2021 09:38
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The mountains didn't quite work for Uran, hopefully the flat will be kinder to us and Vesely.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 20-05-2021 09:46
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Total writeoff for us, most I can hope is couple points somehow
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| tastasol |
Posted on 20-05-2021 10:25
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Don't expect much here. Hope Pedersen will sprint and that guys like Kragh and Norman Hansen can grab some bonus seconds from the intermediate sprints.
Another big race for the relegation battle. Degenkolb and Ahlstrand could both make their teams more or less safe with a win here.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 20-05-2021 12:23
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Demare hasn't had the most convincing sprint performances outside of the Giro this season.
I hope we can get lucky here with opportunistic positioning right behind the clear favorites and be consistently up there for a Top 5 GC result in the end.
It would be a massive step towards consolidating our Top 3 position in the overall rankings as this is the last race of 2020 that features either Herklotz or Demare for us, everything after this will likely only yield minor points at best.
I would particularly like to win the direct battle with Moser and Air France for exactly that podium spot here.
Maybe we're not too high up on the favorites list and can get Declerq or Sagiv into a break to challenge for the KoM as well. We also have our leadout Niu-Aregger here in case there's an opportunity to utilize it, and Ganna/Madouas are mostly just gaining additional experience.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 20-05-2021 18:48
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Tour de France Champion
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Hoping the strong all-round strengths of Demare & Bewley boost them up the AI favorites list, so then Ewan can surf trains. As we continue to pick-up enough points for survival we're just rocking up for fun now.
Not our best support cast for Caleb, but Julian and Darren constantly overperform, and the rest are all solid enough.
Let's see what happends and show off for our local sponsor, Woolworths #ad
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| roturn |
Posted on 20-05-2021 19:00
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Good memories here with Swift winning it back to back for me, which was actually the first ever stage race win for me I think.
Pure bonus second race. With the depth here, quite happy to not be here even though Groenewegen should have been able to do well as he usually is having nice consistency.
Being in relegation fight, I might cheer for teams not around me. 
But may the best win I guess. |
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 20-05-2021 20:23
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Stauff, Canelon and Lander have been disappointing this year, thus I expect nothing
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 06-12-2025 20:36
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| ember |
Posted on 20-05-2021 21:33
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Another race where we're not allowed to have any big expectations due to our lineup. Fingers crossed we join breakaways and fight for minor points. Stage 1 and 4 are keys, as our best bet for points might be the mountain sprints and the KoM jersey.
Looking forward to the reports, cunego59! And thank you for a detailed preview  |
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 20-05-2021 22:46
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Samolenkov was amazing at Nakhon Ratchasima, but together with Moser failed at Moscow. Good positioning is key here, hoping for a 4xtop-5.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 20-05-2021 23:01
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Mucho important race for us. |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 21-05-2021 08:16
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Good luck
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 21-05-2021 09:36
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Hopefully, Guarnieri can step up and put an end to the series of poor results we've had lately. The only other PTHC race he's raced so far this season ended up going very, very well, so I'm hopeful he can punch above his weight again here
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| quadsas |
Posted on 21-05-2021 11:07
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Okay, that was epic. Guaranteed points, and if Hamilton decides to break away again, could be BIG, no, bigger than that, LARGE
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| tastasol |
Posted on 21-05-2021 11:22
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Not a great start, but at least some guys near the top 20. Go for the breaks now, guys!
Big win for ISA.
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 21-05-2021 12:12
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Well, at least we won't fall victim to the yellow jersey curse (yet)
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 21-05-2021 12:15
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Sure, why bother sprinting and getting a top 100? 
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| ember |
Posted on 21-05-2021 13:45
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Good to see us chase when we missed the breakaway. At least that shows we want to be up front, making me hopeful we'll be able to join some of the breakaways on the next three stages.
Sensational leadout by Aregger, just a pity for him and Puma that Demare lost contact. Degenkolb and Ahlstrand as the best two riders could be expected, and a great start for both. Congratulations on the win, Scorchio! |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 21-05-2021 13:50
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That was a weird finish. Grosu went to soon and nothing to show off in the end. But at least Van Poppel got some bonus seconds so I guess this opens up the chance for him to get a good place in the GC.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 21-05-2021 15:36
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ember wrote:
Sensational leadout by Aregger, just a pity for him and Puma that Demare lost contact.
In these kinds of situations, I like to imagine this was the ICL and we'd only get the finish line shot and the result.
That way, not knowing how they got there, I would be over the moon with third and sixth.
So while it may sting a little to imagine what could've been from that position, this is still a massive result for both!
(and thanks for the compliment in there)
I wasn't expecting us forming a sprint train in any stage here, so it's good to see we got the basics right, bar that crucial disruption.
Granjel Cabrera keeps Moser up there as well though, so we need to follow this up with more good sprints.
I wouldn't expect Aregger to add many more bonus seconds, so for him it's all about hoping the riders ahead of him will continue to sweep the top positions while the bottom half of the top 10 is as random as possible, so there won't be too many lower level sprinters overtaking him in the GC.
And for Demare, the pressure is on now after getting a decent headstart over the other 82 sprinters!
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