|
Tour of Tasmania Discussion
|
| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 19-04-2018 10:30
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4190
Joined: 13-09-2015
PCM$: 400.00
|
Tasmania! We're finally here after a long journey this season. The 2017 MG season is almost over, and this race is the final stage race in the PT calendar. A 3-day stage race in this island, with a flat stage, a hilly stage, and the final timetrial, to decide who will follow Jerome Coppel in this race's palmares.
The reigning champion is here to defend his crown, but Coppel won't have an easy ride here to get his second GC win in Tasmania, because the other riders that finished in last year's podium, are also here.
Bobridge has finished in the podium in the last two years, third in 2015, second in 2016. Will this be his year to get a home win for him and for his team Jayco? He's the top favourite according to our strenght ratings.
Spilak forms a lethal duo with Coppel for Festina, whose only option to win the PT ranking for the 3rd straight year is that this two riders dominate the race.
Trofimov is a former winner in 2014, who despite starting his declining, he still has the abilities to win a race like this. And Tinkoff surely need him to win if they want to continue another season in PT
Gesink is another rider that shines in both hills and TT, but might be one step behind other riders due his low acceleration.
Phinney hasn't finished in the top10 of the race since 2013, but thinking of Coppel's win last year, if the Frenchman could win the race, why can the American do it this year.
There are more riders with great TT and good hilly abilities, like Sicard, Kangert, Boom, Izagirre, Konovalovas, Keinath or Haig, but is very unlikely that they'll fight for anything higher than a top10 in this field.
| Favourites | HIL | TT | ACC | RES | Contenders | HIL | TT | ACC | RES |  Bobridge | 83 | 77 | 80 | 74 |  Izagirre | 79 | 77 | 63 | 72 |  Spilak | 82 | 77 | 74 | 81 |  Konovalovas | 76 | 75 | 74 | 75 |  Gesink | 81 | 80 | 68 | 80 |  Keizer | 71 | 81 | 73 | 79 |  Trofimov | 82 | 76 | 75 | 77 |  Gastauer | 82 | 66 | 76 | 70 | | Coppel | 76 | 83 | 74 | 78 | Keinath | 76 | 75 | 70 | 76 |  Phinney | 77 | 83 | 75 | 74 |  Vakoc | 80 | 69 | 74 | 71 |  Ponzi | 84 | 68 | 80 | 72 | Haig | 74 | 77 | 73 | 75 |  Bakelants | 84 | 67 | 78 | 78 | Boswell | 80 | 67 | 76 | 73 | | De Bie | 82 | 72 | 75 | 76 |  Gallopin | 74 | 75 | 73 | 78 |  Sicard | 78 | 76 | 70 | 79 | Schreurs | 81 | 66 | 74 | 72 |  Kangert | 77 | 77 | 72 | 75 | Goos | 74 | 76 | 73 | 75 |  Kelderman | 82 | 70 | 72 | 75 | Herklotz | 75 | 72 | 75 | 78 |  Lutsenko | 81 | 68 | 81 | 73 | Koren | 74 | 78 | 66 | 75 | | Boom | 75 | 78 | 75 | 76 | Rosskopf | 75 | 76 | 70 | 71 | | Ginanni | 83 | 65 | 74 | 78 |  Skujins | 83 | 59 | 76 | 77 |
Now we'll talk about the pure puncheurs who are present here and will aim for a really hard hilly stage, where they can create big gaps to the better timetrialist.
For Bakelants, this is debut in the race, so it's unknown what he can do, while Ponzi has only raced the race twice, with a 8th in GC as best result.
Lutsenko and Kelderman were able to finish in the top15 last season, but it's hard to imagine that they'll improve that result.
De Bie is the pure puncheur with the best timetrial abilities, although it's far from being as good as riders like Bobridge, Spilak or Trofimov.
Other great puncheurs like Ginanni, Schreurs, Gastauer, Vakoc, Skujins, McCarthy or Koretzky are here too, but their awful TT abilities will make them to not have a great GC result
| Puncheurs | HIL | TT | ACC | Sprinters | SPR | ACC | FLA | | Bakelants | 84 | 67 | 78 |  Kristoff | 83 | 79 | 75 | | Ponzi | 84 | 68 | 80 | Ciolek | 83 | 79 | 75 | | Bobridge | 83 | 77 | 80 | Grosu | 82 | 80 | 73 | | Ginanni | 83 | 65 | 74 | Guarnieri | 82 | 81 | 76 | | Skujins | 83 | 59 | 76 | Vanderbiest | 82 | 77 | 74 | | Spilak | 82 | 77 | 74 | Roelandts | 81 | 80 | 75 | | De Bie | 82 | 72 | 75 | Zabel | 81 | 79 | 74 | | Gastauer | 82 | 66 | 76 | Saber | 81 | 79 | 75 | | Kelderman | 82 | 70 | 72 | Boeckmans | 81 | 83 | 73 | | Trofimov | 82 | 76 | 75 | Vesely | 81 | 80 | 73 | | Gesink | 81 | 80 | 68 | Petit | 80 | 78 | 76 | | Lutsenko | 81 | 68 | 81 |  Coutinho | 79 | 80 | 72 | | McCarthy | 81 | 58 | 74 | Te Brake | 79 | 76 | 75 | | Schreurs | 81 | 66 | 74 | Merino Criado | 78 | 80 | 73 | | Boswell | 80 | 67 | 76 | Young | 78 | 77 | 74 | | Vakoc | 80 | 69 | 74 |  Kragh Andersen | 78 | 75 | 75 | | Koretzky | 80 | 61 | 79 | Fonseca | 78 | 77 | 74 |  Dowsett | 80 | 63 | 71 | Reimer | 77 | 80 | 75 |
The first stage is a stage for the sprinters, so loads of them have come here thinking of getting that stage win and a day in the leader's jersey. Although we should remember that in 2016 a break took the stage win, so it's not a guaranteed mass sprint in this first stage.
Kristoff and Ciolek are the only 83 sprinters here, but Strava has brought everything they have to this race, with the hope of scoring everywhere to avoid relegation to PCT. Guarnieri has Boeckmans as his final lead-out, something that puts him even or ahead of the 83 sprinters. Vanderbiest, Grosu, Roelandts, Vesely, Saber, Zabel or Petit are all riders that could take the opening stage in any given day, so it will be a big fight for the win.
So we only have left the timetrialist, who aim for the final stage. All the top ones are here. We have already talked about Phinney and Coppel, so the other 83 TTer, Fiedler is another big threat for the stage win. But he might be exhausted after the hilly stage and isn't likely to be in the level of Phinney and Coppel in that day. Zmorka, Vlatos, Keizer, Sutterlin, Dillier, Schadlich, Gonzalez Salas, Viennet... there are lots of great timetrialist in this race, but as i just said, given the TT is right after a hard hilly stage, i can't see anyone outside of Phinney or Coppel taking the win, and if that would happen, a rider like Gesink should be the one stealing the win, not the non-climber timetrialist
| TTers | TT | HIL | | Phinney | 83 | 77 | | Fiedler | 83 | 68 | | Coppel | 83 | 76 | | Zmorka | 82 | 65 | | Vlatos | 81 | 64 | | Keizer | 81 | 71 | | Schädlich | 80 | 64 | | Gesink | 80 | 81 |  Dillier | 80 | 63 | | Gonzalez Salas | 80 | 60 | | Sütterlin | 80 | 65 | | Viennet | 80 | 67 | | Hepburn | 79 | 66 | | Haugard | 79 | 60 | | Cattaneo | 79 | 70 |
|
| |
|
|
| CrueTrue |
Posted on 19-04-2018 11:08
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 27880
Joined: 20-10-2006
PCM$: 200.00
|
Orange reporting for duty. Basically just here to try to screw things up for everybody else  |
| |
|
|
| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 19-04-2018 11:14
|
Team Leader
Posts: 6177
Joined: 20-07-2008
PCM$: 200.00
|
I'm dreading this race, since I could only feature suboptimal leaders here. However a podium in the last stage is a must.
Let's see how this pans out. It would be nice to see Bobridge do the hattrick and continue Jayco's late surge.
Thanks for the preview Aquarius!
|
| |
|
|
| alexkr00 |
Posted on 19-04-2018 11:15
|
World Champion
Posts: 13561
Joined: 05-08-2008
PCM$: 400.00
|
4-3-1 is Gesink's season so far. Naturally, he will finish second here.
|
| |
|
|
| SotD |
Posted on 19-04-2018 11:36
|
World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
|
Taylor Phinney will win this with ease. Hopefully I can put both Spilak and Coppel in top 5 with one of them landing 2nd.
Last season we got 1st and 3rd I believe - It's highly unlikely that we will replicate that. Robert Gesink is probably taking a podium here, while Bobridge will also get top 5.
|
| |
|
|
| tsmoha |
Posted on 19-04-2018 11:54
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11786
Joined: 19-07-2010
PCM$: 300.00
|
The presence of Phinney aand Gesink won't make things easier. Bobridge has a great history here though. I guess he needs to repeat his stage-win on day two from last year and somehow get a notable gap on those guys and Coppel etc. A third consecutive podium would be awesome. Top-5 must be the minimum goal. Even more, since he was pretty disappointing in stage races with TTs this season!
Hopefully Saber will be in the mix for stage one.
|
| |
|
|
| knockout |
Posted on 19-04-2018 12:06
|
Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8236
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
|
Not sending Van Stayen looks like a mistake but i thought Norway would offer him better GC chances and went with that. Skujins here as leader. He crashed out last season but he isnt suited well to this race anyway as he has one of the worst TT stat in my team and that issupposed to mean sth!
hoping for a Strava domination throughout the race!
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
| |
|
|
| ember |
Posted on 19-04-2018 12:43
|
Team Leader
Posts: 7058
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 900.00
|
We're here for the first stage, and so it's very nice to see Kristoff being the joint best sprinter on paper. That should give him a shot at a train, and with Oss and Feillu, it should make for a decent one as well. But as the preview says, Guarnieri has to be the big stage favourite, especially if it works out with Boeckmans. If it doesn't, Kristoff will hopefully be ready to bounce.
Beltran for the GC doesn't give much hope considering the TT, but hopefully that will make him race aggressive and be visible on the hilly stage.
Looking forward to this one! |
| |
|
|
| roturn |
Posted on 19-04-2018 14:59
|
Team Manager
Posts: 22043
Joined: 24-11-2007
PCM$: 3900.00
|
Keizer - Boom - De Bie.
Hopefully getting a top5 and if everything goes perfectly fine another top10 or at least two more in top20-25.
Last year the hill stage didn`t play out that hilly, hence Keizer got some more chance here.
If it is raced very hilly, then Boom/De Bie should be good for a high GC.
Coppel vs. Phinney for the win anyway. |
| |
|
|
| Ad Bot |
Posted on 07-12-2025 10:42
|
Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
|
|
| IP: None |
|
|
| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 20-04-2018 03:51
|
Classics Specialist
Posts: 2773
Joined: 31-12-2007
PCM$: 450.00
|
Here we go!!!
|
| |
|
|
| cio93 |
Posted on 20-04-2018 05:33
|
World Champion
Posts: 10616
Joined: 29-10-2007
PCM$: 500.00
|
Hm, it's time.
Chronologically, we start with a surprisingly good chance for Ciolek to take a decent chunk of points. The small hill in the final might disrupt things and cost too much energy though.
Obviously, despite a decent TT Kelderman needs a hard hilly stage, but my hopes aren't exactly high for that to happen. A lighter stage however should allow for Herklotz and Bongiorno to hang on and provide good depth in the GC, in theory.
Sütterlin in the TT will be a lottery as always, the GC implications are far more important there.
Overall, I hope we can crack the Top 10 somehow, or at least position two riders in the Top 20 and another one close behind, and get a podium somewhere along the way. Herklotz might do well in the fight for white too.
Good luck to most teams involved!
|
| |
|
|
| Heine |
Posted on 20-04-2018 06:58
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4467
Joined: 08-04-2007
PCM$: 200.00
|
Just sent Mattia here as I had a strange amount of race days left, will be interesting to see if he can do anything, doubt it tbh
|
| |
|
|
| fjhoekie |
Posted on 20-04-2018 07:38
|
Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4368
Joined: 25-07-2010
PCM$: 200.00
|
Another race which will show why we deserve to get relegated.
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
| |
|
|
| Shonak |
Posted on 20-04-2018 09:06
|
Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15579
Joined: 16-07-2013
PCM$: 350.00
|
Right... good team work though, hoping Bakelants can make the most of tomorrow. Allez.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
|
| |
|
|
| Croatia14 |
Posted on 20-04-2018 09:12
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 9137
Joined: 13-03-2013
PCM$: 2100.00
|
The (almost) perfect start for Strava to take it up at the very end and avoid relegation.
|
| |
|
|
| tsmoha |
Posted on 20-04-2018 09:14
|
Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11786
Joined: 19-07-2010
PCM$: 300.00
|
Meh. Great sprint from Saber, but a breakaway win sucks.
Pathetic stuff from Haig in particular. Haas dropped. Porte dropped. No depth here then. Now go and work your lazy asses off for Bobridge!
|
| |
|
|
| SotD |
Posted on 20-04-2018 09:29
|
World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
|
That was a surprisingly small group at the end. Luckily the right ones in front for me - also Bouglas apparently sprinting or something 
|
| |
|
|
| ember |
Posted on 20-04-2018 11:40
|
Team Leader
Posts: 7058
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 900.00
|
Underwhelming from Kristoff and the team, but good to see Beltran safely through. Congratulations on the surprise win, DubbelDekker!
Now, let's move on to the anticipated hilly stuff  |
| |
|
|
| knockout |
Posted on 20-04-2018 11:48
|
Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8236
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
|
Nice effort by Smirnovs and good job by Strava. I liked that stage.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
| |
|
|
| Bushwackers |
Posted on 20-04-2018 12:14
|
Sprinter
Posts: 1982
Joined: 07-02-2009
PCM$: 300.00
|
Kind of a weird split, not sure why Reichenbach and Schelling wouldn't make it but it looks like we're out of this race already 
|
| |
|
