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PT Rankings Update #1
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| roturn |
Posted on 03-11-2017 08:37
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Team Manager
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Let`s check how the PT field performed in January.
Qatar as only PT stage race, Badaling as usual classic to open the PT season and then the PT/PCT combined PTHC Colombo Classic.
Hence puncheurs and sprinters this month with only a bit of time trialing in between.
With the PTHC division it`s similar as last year with HC events for PT. The teams not necessarily have the same amount of race days and hence you can`t compare to 100%. In especially early on the order surely impacted by the amount of PTHC raced by each team.
Let`s start with Badaling. The race was won by new puncheur star Sagan it seems. Will it be the big season for former Becherovka now Moser? A top result in the hilly classics was rather rare in the past and now this was a big mark by the team. Easily top scorer in China with Puma and Strava coming next in that event and hence also doing well in the rankings for the moment.
The Colombo Classic then was raced by 12 teams including Moser and even though their performance there was unlucky with Sagan crashing, it still was small points for them. Jayco and Aker the big winners there and best PT teams.
Qatar then easily the biggest points on the table this month and yet again Moser scoring hugely. Bewley winning the race and hence 2/3 races won by the team this month. If this continues, we can already end the season I guess. Question is, how good is Velits as their 3rd big leader in the mountains.
Qatar as well moved other teams high in the ranking that didn`t performed very well in Badaling. Those are mainly Festina, who had a great event with Coquard and Coppel as also Aegon, who got 2 stage wins and 2nd in the GC with Swift.
Other teams that had good results this month were Porto with Avelino in a surprisingly strong Qatar, Tinkoff with a still strong Trofimov in Badaling, Vesuvio not that strong but Gastauer showing very active racing, which hopefully gets rewarded at some point, Evonik/Hugo Boss doing fine in Badaling, but a no show in Qatar then.
Hence those mentioned teams are quite decently placed in the middle section usually. eBuddy showed decent consistency and is 8th without big single results really, which is similar for Spotify.
Iberia at 12th surely will have a long season as Izagirre didn`t perform and Degenkolb not as strong as last year. Mohs surely being missed already.
At the bottom RBC, though it likely is Phinney again pulling them out of the dirt, while Pendleton`s must hope for a stronger Lutsenko later on. Ayubowan!, Wiesenhoff, Nemiroff all need to wait for the GTs/mountains or cobbles to get higher.
| | Team | PTHC | Total | RD | Bad | ColCl | Qat | | 1 |  | Moser - Sygic | 32 | 836 | 10 | 278 | 32 | 526 | | 2 |  | Festina - Dexia | 0 | 535 | 8 | 97 | 0 | 438 | | 3 |  | Aegon - Lavazza | 0 | 480 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 435 | | 4 |  | Team Puma - SAP | 73 | 450 | 10 | 188 | 73 | 189 | | 5 |  | Strava | 0 | 429 | 8 | 196 | 0 | 233 | | 6 |  | Porto - Prio | 5 | 411 | 10 | 48 | 5 | 358 | | 7 |  | Jayco - Cobra9 | 125 | 349 | 10 | 75 | 125 | 149 | | 8 |  | eBuddy | 62 | 320 | 10 | 102 | 62 | 156 | | 9 |  | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 0 | 310 | 8 | 164 | 0 | 146 | | 10 |  | Aker - MOT | 117 | 307 | 10 | 62 | 117 | 128 | | 11 |  | Spotify - Haglöfs | 0 | 285 | 8 | 64 | 0 | 221 | | 12 |  | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | 0 | 285 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 245 | | 13 |  | Vesuvio - Accumalux | 37 | 224 | 10 | 104 | 37 | 83 | | 14 |  | Gazelle | 82 | 221 | 10 | 87 | 82 | 52 | | 15 |  | Evonik - ELKO | 0 | 204 | 8 | 144 | 0 | 60 | | 16 |  | Hugo Boss | 0 | 203 | 8 | 137 | 0 | 66 | | 17 |  | Project: Africa | 0 | 189 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 123 | | 18 |  | Nemiroff - ABBYY | 30 | 166 | 10 | 40 | 30 | 96 | | 19 |  | Wiesenhof - Andritz | 4 | 136 | 10 | 78 | 4 | 54 | | 20 |  | Ayubowan! | 20 | 131 | 10 | 61 | 20 | 50 | | 21 |  | Pendleton's | 24 | 122 | 10 | 40 | 24 | 58 | | 22 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 0 | 88 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 42 |
No projected ranking early on for the PT yet as the one stage race would lead to totally unrealistic numbers.
Instead the individual scoring:
Bewley on top is no surprise after winning Qatar. Question is if he is leaving this top spot at any time this season now! Surely one of the big favourites for the title.
Swift following as in general the top sprinters in that top spots.
Sagan though on the podium as well with the Badaling win. Coppel at 11th as best non puncheur/sprinter after winning the Qatar TT.
| 1 | Sam Bewley | NZL | | Moser - Sygic | 471 | | 2 | Ben Swift | GBR | | Aegon - Lavazza | 355 | | 3 | Peter Sagan | SVK | | Moser - Sygic | 253 | | 4 | Bryan Coquard | FRA | | Festina - Dexia | 227 | | 5 | John Degenkolb | GER | | Iberia - Team Degenkolb | 212 | | 6 | Óscar Avelino | POR | | Porto - Prio | 199 | | 7 | Jan Bakelants | BEL | | Strava | 161 | | 8 | Jack Bobridge | AUS | | Jayco - Cobra9 | 160 | | 9 | Jonas Ahlstrand | SWD | | Spotify - Haglöfs | 153 | | 10 | Gerald Ciolek | GER | | Team Puma - SAP | 138 | | 11 | Jerome Coppel | FRA | | Festina - Dexia | 129 | | 12 | Yuri Trofimov | RUS | | Tinkoff Sport Academy | 129 | | 13 | Ian Boswell | USA | | eBuddy | 122 | | 14 | Francesco Ginanni | ITA | | Gazelle | 122 | | 15 | Wilco Kelderman | NED | | Team Puma - SAP | 121 | | 16 | Jacopo Guarnieri | ITA | | Strava | 115 | | 17 | Kristian Dyrnes | NOR | | Aker - MOT | 110 | | 18 | Simone Ponzi | ITA | | Hugo Boss | 97 | | 19 | Georgos Tzortzakis | GRE | | Project: Africa | 88 | | 20 | Lasse Norman Hansen | DEN | | Strava | 88 |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 03-11-2017 08:43
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World Champion
Posts: 13561
Joined: 05-08-2008
PCM$: 400.00
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Why this in the CT forums?
Indeed, very consistent results. A top 10 for Grosu in Qatar would have made it 3 top 10s in 3 races in January which would have been pretty great.
Only 2 races in and Boswell already has almost half of last year points (he wasn't maxed out then but now he is on lower wages  ). May the "overperforming" continue.
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 03-11-2017 08:46
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Team Leader
Posts: 7366
Joined: 19-02-2008
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Nice.
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| roturn |
Posted on 03-11-2017 08:47
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Team Manager
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Having Barth on 100k wage due to pure stupidity on my end, it`s at least nice to see he got 21 points in Qatar. Fully deserved contract I`d say now. 
Guess it`s Frison and Dumoulin now, who have the pressure to pass him. |
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| Shonak |
Posted on 03-11-2017 09:32
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15579
Joined: 16-07-2013
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5th in total, three riders in Top 20, great start to our avoid relegation-campaign _O_
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 03-11-2017 09:34
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11786
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Thanks for the first update!
Satisfied with the start, much better than last year. Badaling and Qatar rather lame for us (especially Durbridge), but Bobridge as 2nd in ColClas prevents us from a low-key january.
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| knockout |
Posted on 03-11-2017 09:51
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8236
Joined: 21-12-2010
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Thanks for the update !
After a disastrous Qatar I find myself way lower than originally expected. I expected like 150 points more from that race with Badaling spot on my expectations. Too early to worry about it but I need a great February to make up for it.
Also I'm pretty sure this is only the second time that Evonik does not own a single top 20 individual ranking rider in a ranking update with the only other time being the CT 2nd Ranking Update 2014
This might actually be the worst ranking update we have ever been on
The predicted top four is already together at the top with Strava the positive surprise as 5th.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 03-11-2017 10:02
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Classics Specialist
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Accidentally clicking here before the race reports and I see Qatar holds nothing good at all for me to look to!! Only positive is Phinney and Summerhill haven't started their seasons on their best terrain yet |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 07-12-2025 08:58
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-11-2017 10:17
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
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Good start to the season. Really interesting to see 4/5 of my supposed top 5 teams already in the top 5.
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| knockout |
Posted on 03-11-2017 10:30
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Grand Tour Champion
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SotD wrote:
Good start to the season. Really interesting to see 4/5 of my supposed top 5 teams already in the top 5.
Who is the fifth team? Vesuvio?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| beagle |
Posted on 03-11-2017 10:45
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4235
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Thanks for the update!
In the past, I was used to to see my team on high places in the start of season. However, it's 2017 and I have to deal with new reality. Like roturn said, it's gonna be a looong season for Iberia - TD 
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| cio93 |
Posted on 03-11-2017 11:00
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World Champion
Posts: 10616
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Strong depth in Badaling and decent 8th places in Colombo and Qatar make for a good season start.
We had more potential in those latter races but looking at way more unlucky teams like Evonik or Pendleton's, our consistency should be the focus and not minor lost points.
Indeed I'd take the Top 4 in that order at the end of the season, but already the triple header coming up can completely turn things around in either direction for a lot of teams.
Certainly a very interesting occasion to judge the race planning skills of most managers and the best opportunity for teams with sufficient depth to set themselves apart.
Thanks for the quick and early update!
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| ember |
Posted on 03-11-2017 14:18
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Probably our worst opening ever in the PT, but it's all expected without EBH Though, Beltran's start to the season, with two no-shows, is worrying, but luckily Dyrnes stepped up and continued last year's overperforming in Colombo, giving us a decent start.
300 points lead must feel good for Roman, but on the other hand, I'd say that also Festina did better than expected in Qatar, loosing less than 100 points to a race winning Bewley and Moser team, meaning SotD will probably feel they're in front of their scheme to the PT crown. But of course, very, very early days still 
Thank you for the update, roturn! |
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 03-11-2017 14:43
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2276
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Not a great start, but cant expect every race to go AS planned. Qatar went as id expect but badaling was a dissapointment. Hopefully the next hilly races be more successfull atleast
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-11-2017 14:44
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
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knockout wrote:
SotD wrote:
Good start to the season. Really interesting to see 4/5 of my supposed top 5 teams already in the top 5.
Who is the fifth team? Vesuvio?
Indeed, that would be my guess yeah :-)
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-11-2017 14:47
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
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ember wrote:
Probably our worst opening ever in the PT, but it's all expected without EBH Though, Beltran's start to the season, with two no-shows, is worrying, but luckily Dyrnes stepped up and continued last year's overperforming in Colombo, giving us a decent start.
300 points lead must feel good for Roman, but on the other hand, I'd say that also Festina did better than expected in Qatar, loosing less than 100 points to a race winning Bewley and Moser team, meaning SotD will probably feel they're in front of their scheme to the PT crown. But of course, very, very early days still
Thank you for the update, roturn!
Yeah, we are ahead of schedule, with Coquard already better than last season, s particularly reassuring sign :-)
That Said, Moser is well ahead of schedule aswell!
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| viking90 |
Posted on 03-11-2017 15:41
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3836
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Its a nice first update for us, Qatar might been the race all season that fits us the best so seeing us in the middle is what we expected after January.
But as seen in Badaling we can score pts even in our weakest terrain.
Looking forward to see how Stallaert can deliver on the cobbles.
Thanks for the update Roturn! And all other guys who keep running this game, Love it |
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| Roman |
Posted on 05-11-2017 11:14
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4279
Joined: 29-05-2007
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Thanks for the update.
Almost perfect start of the season for us really. But when I see the team that is 2nd right behind us... Surely looks like another season for Festina, their depth to score some points everywhere is amazing.
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| knockout |
Posted on 06-11-2017 19:56
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8236
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Apparently Matt is interested in this, too, so I will update the current correlation of the different predictions with the ranking updates throughout the season. The metric I will use for this is correlation coefficient of [Predicted Ranking Positions] and [Points in Ranking Update].
Spoiler I use the points instead of the ranking positions for the updates because i think it is more fair to rate predictions. Close ranking battles are rated more fair than e.g. the pure difference of positions.
Example:
2016 PT Final Ranking
| 1 | [img]pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/tif.png[/img] | Team I-Gen - Festina | 8315 | | 2 | [img]pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/bec.png[/img] | Becherovka - Petrof | 6666 | | 3 | [img]pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vsa.png[/img] | Vesuvio - Accumalux | 6641 |
1. Prediction:
| 1 | [img]pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/tif.png[/img] | Team I-Gen - Festina | | 2 | [img]pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vsa.png[/img] | Vesuvio - Accumalux | | 3 | [img]pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/bec.png[/img] | Becherovka - Petrof |
2. Prediction: | 1 | [img]pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/bec.png[/img] | Becherovka - Petrof | | 2 | [img]pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/tif.png[/img] | Team I-Gen - Festina | | 3 | [img]pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/vsa.png[/img] | Vesuvio - Accumalux |
Both predictions have just swapped two teams with each other from the final ranking but Imo the 2nd prediction should be rated much better than the 1st because the difference of Vesuvio and Becherovka turned out much smaller than the difference between I-Gen and Vesuvio.
A value of 1 would be a perfect prediction, a value of 0 is what you'd expect with a complete random prediction and the highest positive value indicates the most accurate prediction.
I know this is way too early to take anything out of this but anyway here we go:
Main Predictions:
| #1* | Prediction | | 1. | 0,482 | Knockout's PT Prediction | | 2. | 0,473 | matt17br | | 3. | 0,449 | Marcovdw's OVR Final Ranking | | 4. | 0,433 | SN's Slightly Mathematical PT Preview 2017 | | 5. | 0,415 | Tsmoha's "No formula" PT Preview | | 6. | 0,360 | Croatia's current feelings | | 7. | 0,344 | AbishekLFC's PT Team Rankings Prediction - Co-efficient Based |
Both matt and me have Wiesenhof (19th currently) predicted as 16th while everyone else has them as a top 10 team. This is a key reason why these two are at the top. Also it helps that my prediction was the only main prediction to not predict Strava (5th) on a relegation spot.
I also collected a few minor predictions to compare:
Spoiler The names might be slightly confusing so a short explanation to that:
- The main predictions are highlighted in the darker blue.
- "+" Indicates a minor published ranking that was presented in combination with another prediction. e.g. Part of the calculation process or using a different weighting of factors.
- "#" indicates that i did not use the predicted rank but a different score like "expected points (e.g. Abisheks History Based one) " / "artificial Team-OVR " (e.g. Marcovdw) or "Average Finishing Position" (Knockout's Prediction). In theory these should be more accurate than the "normal" predictions.
- ° indicates a ranking that was not actually predicted by anyone but uses other things to predict the rankings:
°2016 Rankings = Taking the finishing order of last season's ranking as prediction -> 1. Festina 2. Moser .... 22. Ayubowan
°Longest Existing Team = The theory is that longer existing teams have an advantage over newer teams because they could let their team grow over multiple years so I i thought it would be interesting to see whether that would have a chance against any proper predictions: 1. Vesuvio, 1. Festina ... 21. Evonik 22. Strava.
°Median/Average Prediction: Used for these are all Main Predictions
Yes, right now, lazily picking the 2016 final rankings would beat every prediction 
If i forgot any prediction or you want to see any other metric (average age, number of letters in username, number of owned riders in the team ...) tracked, tell me 
(I'll add Tamijo's prediction for the next updates if he finishes it.)
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 07-11-2017 06:35
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2773
Joined: 31-12-2007
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Already in the top-10 and we are just getting started 
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