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Tour of Northern Europe Discussion
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 11-02-2015 19:12
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The Tour of Northern Europe is one of the hardest races to predict on the calendar with sprints, cobbles hills and time trials. It's my favourite race I invented for the ManGame, who will emerge from the madness to win this year?
Race History
| 1 | 2 | 3 | | 2013 |  Coppel |  Cancellara |  Schumacher | | 2012 |  Pozzato |  Devolder | Cancellara | | 2011 | Cancellara | Devolder |  Boom | | 2010 |  Gusev | Burghardt | Devolder |
This year we taken on the reverse of last year's route. Jerome Coppel rode out of his skin with neither the hills nor cobbles providing as many gaps as expected, time trial became a vital stat. But the year before the cobbled stage wiped out the hopes of most. If you didn't finish in the first group on that stage, you were stuffed, and Pozzato used the hills and sprint time bonuses to outweigh the TT strength of Devolder and Cancellara.
Cancellara won 3 stages on his way to victory in 2011, again the cobbled stage was most decisive. Finally in 2010, you needed to make the cobbled stage selection to be in with a chance but Boonen and Burghardt's 2 minute advantage came undone on the Mur de Huy, with Gusev storming to the GC win.
So last year aside, history tells us you need a good cobbles stat. So here are the top cobbled riders:
| Hill | TT | Cob |  Burghardt | 72 | 64 | 84 |  Cancellara | 71 | 82 | 83 |  Bewley | 71 | 71 | 83 |  Vanspeybrouck | 71 | 62 | 82 |  Boonen | 69 | 70 | 81 |  Blythe | 65 | 68 | 81 |  Summerhill | 73 | 59 | 81 |  Sibilla | 63 | 58 | 81 |  Gusev | 72 | 75 | 80 | | Nolf | 66 | 64 | 80 |  Zepuntke | 68 | 65 | 79 | | Fenn | 61 | 63 | 79 |  Vanmarcke | 66 | 62 | 79 | | De Vocht | 58 | 63 | 78 |  Jacobs | 64 | 62 | 78 |
We know what stage they will be targeting, meanwhile the time triallists will aim to survive the cobbles and ardennes with as much damage limited as possible, before moving on to their terrain.
| Hill | TT | Cob |  Fiedler | 68 | 83 | 60 | | Cancellara | 71 | 82 | 83 | | Cornu | 72 | 81 | 69 |  Kittel | 64 | 81 | 57 | | Sergent | 69 | 80 | 53 | | Van Winden | 63 | 80 | 57 |  Posthuma | 73 | 79 | 71 |  Dempster | 64 | 79 | 60 | | Boom | 75 | 78 | 74 |  Bernaudeau | 61 | 78 | 53 | | Steensen | 72 | 77 | 60 | | De Kort | 66 | 77 | 72 |  Dillier | 62 | 77 | 68 | | Navardauskas | 56 | 77 | 56 |
That Ardennes stage is pretty tough though! And with the Swedish hills too, these guys can certainly make up for lost time:
| Hill | TT | Cob | | Claeys | 83 | 64 | 64 | | Schumacher | 82 | 75 | 69 | | Van Garderen | 82 | 69 | 67 | | Gilbert | 80 | 72 | 72 | | v.d. Hugenhaben | 80 | 71 | 65 |  Costa | 80 | 76 | 61 | | Flügel | 80 | 65 | 59 | | McCarthy | 79 | 58 | 69 | | Sanchez Gil | 79 | 75 | 63 | | Pozzato | 78 | 70 | 74 | | Sagan | 78 | 68 | 62 | | Roux | 78 | 62 | 52 | | Diggle | 77 | 70 | 51 |  Konovalovas | 76 | 75 | 65 |
Throw that all together, and these riders emerge as our overall favourites:
| Hill | TT | Cob | HTC | | Cancellara | 71 | 82 | 83 | 236 | | Gusev | 72 | 75 | 80 | 227 | | Boom | 75 | 78 | 74 | 227 | | Schumacher | 82 | 75 | 69 | 226 | | Bewley | 71 | 71 | 83 | 225 | | Gilbert | 80 | 72 | 72 | 224 | | Posthuma | 73 | 79 | 71 | 223 | | Pozzato | 78 | 70 | 74 | 222 | | Cornu | 72 | 81 | 69 | 222 | | Burghardt | 72 | 64 | 84 | 220 | | Boonen | 69 | 70 | 81 | 220 | | Kluge | 68 | 74 | 77 | 219 | | Kruijswijk | 72 | 72 | 74 | 218 | | Van Garderen | 82 | 69 | 67 | 218 | | Sanchez Gil | 79 | 75 | 63 | 217 | | Costa | 80 | 76 | 61 | 217 | | Sinkeldam | 75 | 64 | 77 | 216 | | Konovalovas | 76 | 75 | 65 | 216 | | v.d. Hugenhaben | 80 | 71 | 65 | 216 | | Vanspeybrouck | 71 | 62 | 82 | 215 |
But what stands out here is that many teams have come with a leader for each terrain. Bpost have Vanspeybrouck, Cornu and Van der Hugenhaben, Rothaus have Boom and Sanchez, Wikipedia have Van Garderen and Summerhill, Pendletons have Gilbert and Gusev, etc.. Covering all scenarios maybe, but there is every chance it could all go wrong if one of the specialists waits for another on the wrong day.
And let's not forget the sprinters, with 3 opportunities for them.
| Sprint | Acc | | Swift | 84 | 82 | | Bewley | 83 | 83 | | Boonen | 83 | 80 | | Van Heerden | 82 | 73 | | Avelino | 82 | 78 | | Guarnieri | 82 | 81 | | Roelandts | 81 | 80 |  Kennaugh | 81 | 81 | | Stauff | 80 | 81 | | Kip | 80 | 82 | | Vanoverschelde | 80 | 75 | | Ulanowski | 80 | 77 | | Rowe | 79 | 80 | | Croket | 79 | 71 |
Full startlist:
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| Heine |
Posted on 11-02-2015 19:17
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Pozatto, Flügel and Zepuntke, neither are the best in their terrain but I can't help expecting some good results
Cancellara and Bewley are my big favorites, I hope the hilly stage will be hard enough so that Pozatto drop them and win this (A)
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| Smowz |
Posted on 11-02-2015 19:22
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Team Leader
Posts: 6386
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A great chance for Fabian here, in what really is one of the last races to really suit him before the dreaded stat drop. I was disappointed last year to be beaten by Coppel, easy way to ensure that doesn't happen again is to buy him and not race him!
Bewley and Schumacher are big threats for me, i am not sure how the cobbles will play out if they do make hard selections then should be good for me.
Looking forward to this unique race!
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| roturn |
Posted on 11-02-2015 19:29
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I need a good GC here. In best case by more than one rider. Plus lots of stage results.
I hope the breakaways won't take too much as I guess with my several leaders, we won't go into the break.
Quite interested how my team goes on that terrain and if I have a clear leader such as Boom. |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 11-02-2015 19:29
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Directeur Sportif
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Pretty cool race indeed and so is this preview! Great overview, covering the possible threats for the GC.
Cancellara looks like a sure ber for the podium, if there's anything near "sure" in this race. Would be great to see Rothaus bouncing back big time. Boom surely with the needed allround package. That would be nice to be rewarded.
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 11-02-2015 19:44
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Hello ProTour! Wondering what someone like Vaitkus can do here in preperation for the WC. Ulanowski could win a stage if he's positioned perfectly, small chance, but still...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| beagle |
Posted on 11-02-2015 20:56
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And one of most awaiting races is here (at least for me)!! Massive competition, with Cancellara as the biggest favourite (again at least for me). Hopefully stage 2 won´t be screwed up by poor AI.
Thanks for great preview!!!
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| rjc_43 |
Posted on 11-02-2015 21:09
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Team Leader
Posts: 6490
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Going to be some BIG sprint, cobble and TT fighting here. Looking for stage success in terms of sprinting and cobble stage.
I never quite have a contender for the GC as Blythe would need some considerable training in hills and TTs.
[url=cleavercycling.co.uk]  [/url] |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 08-12-2025 06:08
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| ember |
Posted on 11-02-2015 23:44
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Very nice preview with all the stats included!
Can't see past Cancellara for the win here with the cobbles coming first. It should really be his race to lose. For my own team, I just hope the AI handles Kruijswijk as our captain, which would be really cool to see, but I fear Van Heerden will be our "mighty" man 
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 12-02-2015 01:07
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World Champion
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Nice work with the stats.
A GC according to the combined stats for cobbles, hill and time - trial would look pretty good for me 
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| Roman |
Posted on 12-02-2015 01:12
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What a nice preview!
This is going to be an interesting one. Hopefully Sagan can help Bewley a lot here. The last year Bewley and Coppel together worked for me, why not Bewley and Sagan duo this year. The clear favourites for me are Cancellara, Pozzato and Schumacher though. My hope here is mainly for a lot of good stage results.
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| OlegTinkov |
Posted on 12-02-2015 06:58
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Still hoping for a KoM this season, maybe this could be the race!
Edited by OlegTinkov on 12-02-2015 19:14
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| roturn |
Posted on 12-02-2015 08:10
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Team Manager
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Could have nominated Schadlich here actually for 1-2 stage results.
But probably needed this race for Sbaraglis exp. Plus a 7th is probably not that worthy. |
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| dave92 |
Posted on 12-02-2015 11:21
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Always a fun race. Echoing what others have said, hard to make anyone beyond cancellara the top favorite but. Pozzato win would not surprise me at all
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 12-02-2015 12:30
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Great work on the preview, thank Took the two-leader gamble here, so hoping for a one-two...
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| CountArach |
Posted on 12-02-2015 12:45
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Grand Tour Champion
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Thanks SN for the preview, really cool.
So I clearly have banked a lot on this race, but this could really go hideously if, as you say, people wait for a struggling co-leader.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 12-02-2015 15:19
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Superb preview. Fascinating race this is, you can only guess who the favourites are when you come to the last few stages.
It's hard to see this happening, but if the cobbled stage becomes doesn't bring much change to the GC Rui Costa could take a reasonable result here. Here's hoping.
Looking at history and the HTC list, Cancellara should be seen as the clear man to beat, though.
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 12-02-2015 15:53
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Sprinter
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Nice preview. Hopefully Schumacher can pull off something similar to last year's result.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 12-02-2015 20:30
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Directeur Sportif
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Some early drama! Feel sorry for all those going ddown but for Boonen/beagle in particular. Was looking forward to another Bewley/Boonen battle. And the whole team dropping back may be huge team spirit, but it's pretty disastrous for a DS point of view.
Gratz, Roman. Beastie Bewley strikes! Pozzato proving his shape and ambitions too. VW will love him right now 
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| roturn |
Posted on 12-02-2015 20:32
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Awful first stage for many teams with possible GC riders down.
Unfortunately two of my outsiders were hit as well. At least should define my three leaders better. Still not ideal except they go into the breakaway now eventually.
You must have the most crashes SN. I barely experience a lot of those in my races. 
Boom, Vanmarcke, Sanchez and Nizzolo did not know who is the leader and just finished next to each other. In best case tomorrow's stage is not selective enough so that LLS is able to get a good GC as well. |
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