A few quick thoughts before jumping into the analysis:
- I believe that stamina has grown in importance but i suspect that some are overreacting a bit about the importance of the change. A rider like Phinney wont be useless but the risk of crucial off-days is increased. I also think that stamina might have been more important in the last few years than most of us including me have realized as that would explain how e.g. Tinkoff overperformed (my) expecations quite a bit. So i expect high stamina riders to be more valuable than previously but not a complete game changer. It might hit some terrains more than others and for me, its pure guess work which one are which. (I assume sprints wont be hit as hard)
- My process is the same as in basically every of my predictions in the last few years: Give each rider a very quick point score which is only used to give me a first idea where i'll rank them. Then overrule that with my personal impression, particularly in comparison to the surrounding teams. So in the end, this is basically a purely subjective opinion.
- To match with the Evonik moves this year, i wont care whether riders are loaned in, have potential to grow or which team has a wonderkid loaned out. This is just putting out predictions for this season.
Lecuisinier is great but others like Herklotz or Wirtgen could outscore him again as they have more options to use their RDs effectively. Lopez should be the same strong leader we have known for years now.
Ovsyannikov, Herregodts and Plapp are the next tier of leaders. All of them should be effective and good and help with covering all races with the leaders. Foss and Eenkhoorn are also great scoring options but their scoring might be limitted due to not being leaders often enough. Some good rouleurs to add to it.
Evonik should be one of the surest podium finishers we've seen in recent PT seasons but it's a lot closer to me for the title than what many others seem to think. Still, i'm pulling a Heine here and predict myself on top.
2. King Power
Another team with strong leaders on every terrain. Gidich remains excellent value and McNulty can take another step forward. Behind them, i think Hsu can improve a lot on his 2024 season and Tiller could also better his scoring with a bit of luck.
But the reason why i see them very close is the time trialling unit. Ganna is set up perfectly for a huge season and Mano is a great number two on a terrain where stacking leaders can even improve their scoring. A great TTT on top and we have a team that is perfectly built to potentially crush some of the stage races like especially Lithuania with multiple top ten finishes.
Many good scorers behind them with guys like Leung, Contreras, Van Baarle or Chaiyasombat and arguably the best deep team depth (say riders 10-18) and i see a team that is only marginally worse than Evonik. If at all.
Wirtgen remains a force as a top 5 contender and they add Würtz as an excellent #2 with the best TTT around them. This unique combination will lead to getting a ton of guaranteed points from a select few races, assuming they indeed race most of the season together (which they should imo).
The other leaders have more question marks behind them. Mohoric had a very disappointing season and needs to improve. If the vocal opinion that one dimensional puncheurs with high stamina are back, he is strong enough and has good enough support, that he can be a big factor.
Similarly, Spengler has always been worse than his 83CB suggest. I dont trust him to improve but a new game always is an intriguing opportunity for these previously underperforming riders.
Kirsch is the final rider i want to highlight. Solid leader for two GTs who can join the stage and KoM chasing breaks in two GTs and a bunch of shorter stage races due to his fairly low OVR to provide strong value to his team.
I see Vesuvio as the team that has the most obvious path to join King Power and Evonik in the title fight. However, im sceptical about both Spengler and Mohoric and they would be needed for a title challenge.
4. Aker
Aker has three fantastic leaders with Valter, Anderberg and Groenewegen. All three proven PT leaders and with good support so i have no doubt that they will deliver again. Anderberg made another big step forward to secure himself as one of the top 5 cobblers with his training.
Behind them, many intriguing depth options that are PT proven like Kragh Andersen or Darshana Prasad. I also like Javier Romo as a puncheur option but with Valter in the same team, im not sure how effective he will be for the team.
In general, the team has pretty good depth including two solid climbers in Williams and Lopez but I'm not 100% convinced with either of them. I think they are strong enough to once again enter the podium fight with some magic from guys like Andersen or Prasad.
5. Indosat
Indosat had one of the most stellar transfer windows: Starting as a team that was basically just Dunbar, they added three quality leaders: Gaviria was easily one of the two best free agents this year and they signed him for a totally fair wage. They also have a strong leadout train with Nur Hasan and some of Trondsen/Baska/Sagiv so im expecting him to have another fantastic season.
Dunbar obviously is there too. And while he has to contend with the Vesuvio duo and some contenders that are only a bit worse than him, he will still rock the season.
And then there is the stage racing duo of Latour and Stüssi. Both had pretty strong seasons last season and i expect them to repeat similar achievements this year.
Some pretty solid climbing options with Firdaus, Frankiny and Zwiehoff or Nur Hasan as a sprinter add further scoring options but this team suffers a bit from the lack of cobbles or hills options and doesnt have the greatest depth outside of a pretty okay TTT lineup.
Overall, i think they will fight for a top five position which would be one heck of a promotion year!
6. Polar
This is Bernals team and there is absolutely no doubt about it. No need to say much, he is pure quality and will compete for another GT victory for sure.
Behind him, Latour was replaced by Geoghegan Hart as the second stage racer. Should be a bit of a downgrade but they are getting younger and he might fit a bit better with the strong TT core than Latour. Speaking about TTs, Mullen remains as the 2nd head of that unit and will continue to be a valuable co-leader.
Bagioli is a new hills leader for the team and he is one of those rather one-dimensional high-stamina puncheurs where im unsure whether they make their big comeback. He performed well in PCT and has a good sprint which should come very valuable so im cautiously positive for his performance.
Final leader i want to highlight is Enric Mas as their third climber. He had a fantastic season last year representing outstanding value for his wage. I think he overperformed a bit last season but also this season, the GT routes should suit him perfectly so both of these effects might cancel each other out.
Overall, this team looks very similar in concept to Vesuvio but with slightly lower upside. They should be in the top five fight again.
7. Puma
This is the age of Herklotz and we are all just living in his dream. One of the most dominant riders in history and he can almost pick the races he wants to win. No reason to expect changes there.
Kanter is a strong sprinter who i expect to continue getting big results - especially if they unlock the full potential of their leadout. A Rutsch - Steimle leadout for example should be great.
Aforementioned Rutsch has done a big step forward on the cobbles. This should put him on the board as a top ten candidate but he might need one more year of training to be great.
Then Puma continues to have very interesting riders behind them that might not be outright leaders: Madouas, Kämna, Gross & Steimle, Zimmermann and O'Brienare all strong enough to contribute with good results throughout the year, its just a bit tough to predict when thats gonna happen.
Overall, Puma isnt as strong as they looked a couple years ago but they are continuing to build their german core and Herklotz alone gives them such a high floor that its hard to see them finishing outside the top ten.
8. Tinkoff
The team of maxed out stamina stats. If that is now the crucial stat as everyone is suggesting, they are bound to overperform once again.
Sivakov is looking great, Senechal and their sprint duo will surely play an important role once again. They also have a good TTT team as they always have.
Im very doubtful about Skujins. I suspect he might hit the cliff now and stop performing solidly.
I simply suck at predicting them. Always underrating them. 8th is higher than i would normally predict them since i see flaws in many of their riders but the success in the past and the suspected importance of stamina needs to be recognized. From relegation to podium, nothing would really shock me anymore.
9. Xero
Areruya is outstanding and will continue to be a huge factor in the hills and to a lesser degree in the mountains. I also have no doubt at all that Thomas Pidcock will continue to be fantastic.
Vermeersch is a great cobbler who will finally start to deliver nicely and Olivier is a climber who i expect to still be great this year.
Behind them there are a lot of fan favourites and local heroes that should be good but might not always be able to show it: Blums, Fouche, Tesfaye, ... I also have my doubts about Lutsyshyn although there are plenty of races that should suit his taste for pancakes just fine.
Xero should be a midtable squad with potential for a lot more.
Vansevenant carried the team lsat year and i expect him to continue at a similar level. I dont see any reason why he should perform any worse than previously and suspect he might even benefit slightly from the game change.
Phinney is surely one of the most interesting riders to watch with his decline and his awful energy stats. I think he will be more inconsistent. Still has the potential to podium stage races but will have the occasional big flop in between. But there is a wide array of potential outcomes for him this season.
Van Hooydonck, Vesely and Wellens are also pretty solid leaders while someone like Guerreiro has a lot of upside.
I'd say this is the first team in the division that needs to glance towards the relegation fight but i think Vansevant will carry them to a safe midtable finish with the assist of Phinney and a bunch of solid but not great leaders.
11. Rabobank
Rabobank is a team where its super tough to pick who is going to be the top scorer. All of Gerts, Formolo, Evenepoel and Champoussin are reasonable picks to do so.
Gerts is still one of the best cobblers around who had a fantastic year in 2024 and has two really good domestiques in Van den Berg and Meeus.
Evenepoel has finished his development (for now) and will be a massive factor this year. A time triallist / stage racer without any flaws. He has the potential to grow into a Wirtgen level over the next years and is already now super strong and has the additional U25 factor this year. Expect him to be great.
Formolo and Champoussin are two very similar riders of the hybrid Mo/Hi archetype. Formolo had a great season last year and Champoussin is looking massively improved after an off-season training camp.
They also have two great sprinters in Aniolkowski and Kooij (not to be mistaken with van der Kooij) and a bunch of interesting options on different terrains (most notable Kron).
I think they are ready to fight for a top ten position this year.
12. Cedevita
Pogacar, Siric and Philipsen is one of the most exciting leader trios in the entire cycling world. And all of them still very young. Especially Siric has made a huge jump forward and i now see him as a top 3-5 cobbler with only Per and Pedersen above him.
There are few secondary point scorers in the squad with only Schlegel and Ackermann looking noteworthy. I think they are pretty good but neither was particularly convincing in PCT last season. After that, someone like Fred Wright might already be the sixth best scorer in the team. Which is not a positive thing to say no matter how cool he looks.
That lack of depth scoring options is why i put them only midtable eventhough they look like they should be higher.
13. ELCO
Depth, depth, depth. ELCO continues with the same recipe that made them PCT champion. Strong depth on every terrain. Farantakis, Altur, Kinoshita and Giannoutsos are all solid leaders with multiple good domestiques and there are some quality second row riders like Ioannidis or Kortsidakis as well. They also have a strong TTT lineup.
I'd say they lack that top leader that can push them into the top ten but suspect that their depth and also the quality of riders like Farantakis will push them into the midtable positions which SotD would happily take as relegation is a danger - especially if Farantakis doesnt work as well as he should.
14. Gazelle
Dombrowski is still the best rider in the team but how good is he these days? Riders like Sivakov or McNulty should overtake him this year and then he might be caught in that "too good to attack, too bad to get the real big points" tier in the GTs that you might not want to be in.
Leknessund and Aleotti are the next generation and they are looking real good already but they might need another year of training to be real great. Teunissen is slowly getting worse after his decline starts to hit. I think he will be alright this year and dramatically dropping next year but i'm not particularly confident with that call.
Then the next tier of Carboni, Malecki, declined Warchol, Vervaeke, Budenieks, ... are all fine riders but they are not the type of riders that i would want to rely on to get the big points in.
And thats my issue with the team: I dont really see that 1000 points scorer in the squad with Dombrowski possibly not there anymore and Leknessund/Aleotti not there yet and then they avoided the sprints completely and also "only" have Leknessund for TTs. Is it possible to avoid two terrains like that when you dont have the huge leaders to compensate for that? I'm a bit sceptical. Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of quality riders that i really like but i only see the squad in the lower midtable with one eye towards the relegation spots.
15. cycleYorkshire
Morton, Cullaigh, Yates, Kemboi, Oliveira. Thats plenty of quality in a squad and more than enough to stay up, right? It should be but im not 100% convinced because imo the team is a bit too unbalanced. Cullaigh and Kemboi are stealing the best sprint options from each other and Yates is more of a sprinty puncheur himself and might be forced into too many tougher profiles?
Morton is still strong but his climbing support looks rather weak to me as i dont rate Stancu at all and both Harper and Skaarseth are solid as lesser cogs in the gear but are unsuited as big lieutenants.
And Oliveira and Hayter are nice TT guys but dont have that uber strong TTT lineup behind them that other teams have.
So imo there is a lot of quality here but they are weaker than the parts of it and i wonder if they might relegate this year?
16. Carlsberg
One thing seems obvious: Carlsberg need another huge Per year. Last year, he already had a strong points Per wage ratio and they absolulutely need that again. Another rider who had a hugh season last year is Huge Carthy. If he can get any close to that, that would be a big step towards safety.
Also for the mountains there are U25 eligible Skjelmose, and Gregaard who can add nice scoring while Aranburu will likely be more of a hills leader for them again. Question marks behind him because of his low stamina, could see him underperforming although he wasnt performing too well previously either.
In the sprints, Rodenberg and Kragh (also known as AKA) are a solid duo that should add some nice points.
BBL talked a fair bit about being in the relegation fight already and i think he's rightfully concerned. Still, i trust Per enough and see enough quality around him that i suspect they can avoid relegation again.
17. Team UBS
Back to back relegations for Kudus? Could be close but i wont rule out another oops for him.
Kudus will be massive this year. Godoy is a great option for the mountains, some depth behind the duo as well.
On the other terrains, it gets dicy though. I see good potential in Jacobs to deliver solidly but he is a step below the top cobblers for sure. Buchmann might be a better PCT rider than PT rider and both him and Müller share question marks surrounding their skill set. I guess the TTT team is solid as well but thats it already. No individual top TT guys, no sprinter, this will be a tough season with a lot of lowlights.
Sony has a fantastic new leader duo in Jack Haig and Marlen Zmorka. Proven quality although Haig might be more on hitting the right GT startlist than most other top stage racers as he could end up as a GT winner or a somewhat anonymous 5th place and neither would absolutely shock me.
Van Dijke is the X factor. I think he absolutely has the quality to be a solid third stage racer as i see a lot of potential in the mini Pidcock stage hunter role for him but he needs good planning and even more luck to fulfill that role.
There is decent depth in the squad but no riders that i really want to highlight as proven scoring options. Hayter, Leemreize, Cherkasov or the sprinter duo can do nicely but dont have the highest expectations. Generally, Sony seems like one of the squads that have not focussed on the stamina stat as much as some others. No clue whether that will look like a mistake in hindsight but worth pointing out that Haig is the only one with 74+ STA.
It's gonna be a long season for them, i definitely see the upside to stay in the division and hope they will achieve that but they definitely need a bit of luck throughout the year.
19. Lierse
Oh boy, what can i say? Imagine you promote with a strong leader group with Oomen, Gamper and Bonifazio as strong leaders (yes, even Bonifazio!) which is a better situations than many PT teams have after renewals and then you just call it a day after selling one of your two worst min wage riders. Not a single transfer signing, not a single free agent signing, not even a loaned in rider, nada. Only some lvl1 dudes that needed a loan.
I want to keep this short so im not gonna write an essay long roast but the transfer decisions definitely lead to Lierse being in the relegation fight.
A solid leader duo with Higuita and Halvorsen who can perform better than last year. They have to improve their scoring output compared to last year when they want to believe in staying up. Halvorsen does not have a leadout in the squad, probably a conscious decision after leadouts disappointed globally the last couple of years but one that could hurt the team if the sprint game changed.
I'm no big fan of Aular or Lopez Nolasco but both can do a job and there is an argument that MM can help both of them to hide their HI stats better. Ocampo finished development and can start contributing as the "leader" of a solid TTT setup. I'm a bit unsure how to rate him as he is that one-dimensional tt guy that i dont rate typically like.
Relegation is looming and they need to surpass expectations quite a bit to stay in.
21. Jura giants
Groves and Schmid were already the big stars last season and have a hard time repeating those seasons.
Darbellay is tasked to step up after Stüssi is gone. His training will help but Stüssi is just a lot better rounded so i dont think he can match his scoring.
Szarka, Larsen, Fernandes, Ferreyra and Stewart are nice riders that could end up adding some solid points but they will have to improve their scoring if Jura wants to hope for another season.
22. Grieg
Pedersen is still worldclass and he has incredibly strong support around him. But what else is there? Gaudu is a puncheur who loks nice but scored a whopping 181 points last season. Cort Nielsen is kinda solid. And thats about it already.
One positive aspect that needs to be highlighted is the stamina that everyone in the squad seems to have. If suspicions of it mattering a lot more get confirmed, that could be a sign of hope. But i struggle to see who that second or third good scorer could be and without that, this team is looking at the relegation spots.
I will be genuinly surprised if we can pull that off, but obviously also super happy, as I am trying to slowly rebuild the team, especially age wise. Impossible to disagree with your title prediction! Also expect you to win by a bit more than you think yourself, but also less than the «Evonik wins everything» predictions
Very nice to have your thoughts on the division. I see LPH being tipped low by many, but suspect they got leaders with a lot of upside if they get it right, being a team that can do well above expectations, I think, and thus do a surprise survival.
I think your placement and assessment of my team is very fair, though I disagree with some of the other teams I think. I think I'd have Rabobank a bit lower and LPH a bit higher, for instance. Rabo just have too many overlapping riders for my liking.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
I guess having GIANTS in lowercase is a pretty good summary of what I probably have to expect from this season... I tried to convince the sponsor to rebrand to "dwarves", but they wouldn't agree
I'm happy if I can stay in contention for staying up for as long as possible, but I guess every relatively well suited race - like Tasmania - has to go our way to get there.
I also agree on the Top 2 teams, but I do disagree on the stamina thing. Yes, it's not the end of the world, but it does not only have a direct impact (i.e. riders simply running out of steam), but also a positioning impact because the game likes low sta guys much less. But we'll see, it obviously always depends on the startlists as well...
Thanks for doing this, a good read (even though not a positive one ) right before the season starts
SotD - i guess i trust farantakis to do much better than previously which probably assumes that the best sprinters are more reliably good than they were previously. But similar to last year, i just count on your depth scoring being good all year.
Ember - Lets say i was very sure which teams i would put top3 but shuffled around the teams behind it a fair bit. In the end i just like many of your riders a ton and gamble on them to perform to their upside potential that they have shown in the past already.
LPH is a fair shout as a team that has potential to overperform my prediction. Higuita, Halvorsen and Aular have the upside to do well. I still stand with my likely relegation prediction for them but maybe i could have pushed them up a tier.
bbl - i was surprised that i ended up ranking them so high too - on first glance the lack of red stats didnt look as good. But i like that setup a lot. I might have looked a bit too much from an evonik pov but i suspect that evenepoel might be the rider that annoys me the most all season long as a rider that does the very same things Plapp and Herregodts do and doing them very well too. And stealing u25 points from plapp even i see your point of Formolo anf Champoussin being very similar but with the hilly classics in play for them as leader options and two mo/hi friendly GTs i dont think its too much of a problem. I dont want to rule out a relegation fight for them but i reckon a top12 position is more likely
abhi - id like to see you beat my prediction by a spot.
fabianski - regarding stamina: i know youve tested it extensively and dont doubt your take on it being very important. I just think it wont be a 180° turn in terms of results as stamina might have been more important than we realized in the past. My best guess is that a good sta improves the likelyhood of an overperformance greatly while a bad sta increases the chance of a total offday. But i still would back someone like phinney to do really well in a race like Portugal.
I think it's definitely very possible that my team is worse than it was last year which means it's going to be another season of battling relegation rather than looking at a top 10 finish. I'm more reliant on my leaders than before, so if one of them has a bad season I'm easily in big trouble.
