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jph's 2025 predictions
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| jph27 |
Posted on 15-09-2025 13:45
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Team Leader
Posts: 7374
Joined: 20-03-2010
PCM$: 900.00
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My predictions here are number based, but also "lazy" as I won't have time to write up any surrounding text 
In terms of methodology, the way it works is by ranking each rider on each terrain using a stat-based formula. The downside here is that the formula is based on last season, so a different game version, but it has a general accuracy of 80-85% when applied back to last season's results.
From there, it is then calculated what the raw % chance of each rider riding any given stage/race on each terrain is based on their RDs and their team's RDs. This is an imperfect method, as realistically there are some races that will definitely be entered by top riders on certain terrains, but it is a lot easier to model this way.
Those probabilities are then used to work out the expected finishing position of each rider on each terrain, and then applied to the total score for that position on that terrain in their eligible races. For example, a rider with an expected finishing position of 2nd in flat races and the ability to ride 40% of the races containing flat stages (or flat classics) would get the points for finishing 2nd in every flat rated stage/race multiplied by 0.4.
Obviously there are a number of imperfections in this method - I think it probably overrates versatile riders and underestimates the best sprinters due to the way the formulas work - but it hopefully is interesting if nothing else. While I don't have time to do a write up I do welcome questions, particularly about the "stranger" results. As ever, I don't trust it as it's about 15 places higher on my team than I am
Instead of point values, each team has a coefficient which is their projected score divided by the average score:
| Rank | Team | Coefficient | | 1 | Evonik - ELKO | 1.58 | | 2 | Xero Racing | 1.33 | | 3 | King Power | 1.29 | | 4 | Team Puma - SAP | 1.20 | | 5 | EA Vesuvio | 1.17 | | 6 | Polar | 1.14 | | 7 | Tinkoff Team - La Datcha | 1.08 | | 8 | Aker - MOT | 1.05 | | 9 | cycleYorkshire | 1.05 | | 10 | Gazelle | 1.04 | | 11 | Indosat Ooredoo | 0.97 | | 12 | Rabobank | 0.97 | | 13 | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 0.94 | | 14 | ELCO - ABEA | 0.92 | | 15 | Sony - Force India | 0.87 | | 16 | Grieg-Maersk | 0.85 | | 17 | Cedevita | 0.85 | | 18 | Team UBS | 0.83 | | 19 | Fastned | 0.81 | | 20 | Los Pollos Hermanos | 0.72 | | 21 | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo Pro Cycling | 0.68 | | 22 | Jura GIANTS | 0.67 |
| Rank | Team | Coefficient | | 1 | MOL Cycling Team | 1.77 | | 2 | Zwift - Newton Foundation | 1.67 | | 3 | Bolt - Eesti | 1.51 | | 4 | Assa Abloy | 1.39 | | 5 | Specialized | 1.37 | | 6 | Hunter Valley Cycling | 1.30 | | 7 | Minions | 1.27 | | 8 | McCormick Pro Cycling | 1.21 | | 9 | DK Zalgiris | 1.13 | | 10 | Bralirwa - Cegeka | 1.13 | | 11 | Ekoi - Le Creuset | 1.07 | | 12 | JEWA TIROL | 0.95 | | 13 | Sauber Petronas Racing | 0.84 | | 14 | Lotto-Caloi | 0.78 | | 15 | Duvel-Tsingtao | 0.77 | | 16 | Spark Team NZ | 0.76 | | 17 | Everesting | 0.76 | | 18 | Tryg - Eni | 0.74 | | 19 | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | 0.73 | | 20 | Colombini Kometa | 0.73 | | 21 | Trans Looney Tunes | 0.72 | | 22 | IESE ProCycling Team | 0.67 | | 23 | Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh | 0.51 | | 24 | DeNA RoadStars | 0.24 |
| Rank | Team | Coefficient | | 1 | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 1.80 | | 2 | Bianchi Enel | 1.69 | | 3 | Euskadi-Murias | 1.55 | | 4 | Peugeot - Bancolombia | 1.46 | | 5 | Ethiopian Airlines | 1.39 | | 6 | Glanbia | 1.19 | | 7 | Podium Ambition | 1.07 | | 8 | IncaLine Pro Cycling | 1.06 | | 9 | SEE Turtles | 1.03 | | 10 | Tafjord Kraft | 0.90 | | 11 | THE ONE - Fox God | 0.74 | | 12 | Kone-Nordea | 0.58 | | 13 | Parmalat - Ecopetrol | 0.45 | | 14 | Euskotren - Pays Basque | 0.44 | | 15 | Team Zappes Kölsch | 0.39 | | 16 | Air New Zealand-Prada | 0.26 |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 15-09-2025 14:26
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World Champion
Posts: 11621
Joined: 17-12-2014
PCM$: 1120.00
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Come on now
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
1x  x1
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 15-09-2025 14:43
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15024
Joined: 08-08-2011
PCM$: 11500.00
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Not last!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 15-09-2025 16:27
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7802
Joined: 22-06-2009
PCM$: 750.00
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I like this one. But surely 2nd is way too high for us. 
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 15-09-2025 16:30
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16552
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 13638.70
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This prediction has me about where I'm hoping to end up, but not sure I agree with quite a few other teams, so we'll see where that puts me.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| SotD |
Posted on 15-09-2025 17:10
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World Champion
Posts: 12630
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
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Seems relatively accurate for PT atleast. I would suspect Gazelle and myself to be lower and Cedevita higher, but mostly it’s around what I would expect aswell…
I Think UBS is in for a better season than most of the previews suggest.
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| Jajajasper |
Posted on 15-09-2025 18:07
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Stagiare
Posts: 170
Joined: 20-01-2021
PCM$: 200.00
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not much change it seems  |
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| knockout |
Posted on 15-09-2025 19:48
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8234
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
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The pressure is on 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 15-09-2025 20:10
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5234
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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Last again, will have to find a way to gain those 0.01 points to Lierse then
If we can somehow make the jump to the group from 15th to 20th, then any outcome in this range could be possible, but I agree that it would take something special to get there...
Rather surprising to see the relegation prediction for Fastned, but after taking a closer look it could happen if one of Vansevenant, Phinney or van Hooydonck don't score at their expected level... Otherwise, I can agree with most of the outcome - and I'll be the last to underestimate Xero again
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 16-09-2025 07:18
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 12680
Joined: 27-07-2015
PCM$: 1961.50
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Will take this prediction every day of the season, and even into next season 
Our honest target this season is 17th, and if we end up 15th that would be a huge success!
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| Heine |
Posted on 16-09-2025 07:40
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4461
Joined: 08-04-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Interesting to see this, kinda the same thought as I had with my points system just with another start. I like this and why I hope for a top 3 or even top 1 I would take 4th and be happy with promotion
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 05-12-2025 12:28
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Bot Agent
Posts: Countless
Joined: 23.11.09
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| redordead |
Posted on 17-09-2025 14:06
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Team Leader
Posts: 5511
Joined: 18-10-2017
PCM$: 200.00
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Hopefully this formula is very flawed and I don't end up being that bad
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| seancoll |
Posted on 18-09-2025 00:23
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Breakaway Specialist
Posts: 763
Joined: 20-12-2022
PCM$: 500.00
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If I recall last year, I was absolutely dreadful in this ranking system, so at least I'm in the pack this year. Still struggling to see how Tafjord is ranked so low here and in many spaces - obviously not the favorite for the division, but I'd expect them to push above their ranking as opposed to worse.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 19-09-2025 07:00
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Team Leader
Posts: 5568
Joined: 12-06-2013
PCM$: 500.00
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Not quite as high here as others but still in the promotion fight which is where we want to be! Thanks jph 
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| Caspi |
Posted on 19-09-2025 13:28
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Domestique
Posts: 705
Joined: 22-09-2022
PCM$: 15500.00
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Ouch.
I think the formula clearly shows that we won't be among the favorites for many, if any, races this season. On the plus side, that means we can be in for some positive surprises along the way.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 21-09-2025 15:04
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Team Leader
Posts: 6174
Joined: 20-07-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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Looks like a sensible prediction. Not sure what PCM thinks of it, but I'm ratifying it.
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 28-09-2025 16:09
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 17833
Joined: 12-05-2012
PCM$: 0.00
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Maths! I don't like maths, and maths doesn't like thte Pirates. We prefer just shooting cannons and asking questions later.
This may be why we struggle.... and the British navy with their maps and compasses and .... well... maths.... kick out butts.... huh...
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