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Amstel Gold Race - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 12-01-2025 16:45
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3914
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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 Amstel Gold Race
Welcome back to the Netherlands for the first of the big 3 Ardennes classics. Simone Ponzi holds the record for most wins in this race with 4. But since he took his 4th win in 2019, we have had 4 different winners. All four of those riders,  Gidich,  Mohoric,  De Bie, and  Lutsenko are back and will be among the favorites for this year. But one name is above them on the favorites list.
| Rider | FL | MT | HI | SP | AC | RS | ST |  Lopez | 70 | 80 | 84 | 66 | 78 | 74 | 76 | | Lutsenko | 69 | 73 | 83 | 72 | 81 | 73 | 76 | | Mohoric | 72 | 71 | 83 | 67 | 77 | 72 | 78 | | Gidich | 72 | 76 | 83 | 63 | 75 | 77 | 78 | | De Bie | 72 | 70 | 83 | 71 | 74 | 75 | 76 |  Skujins | 69 | 69 | 82 | 67 | 75 | 76 | 79 |  Yates | 74 | 70 | 81 | 77 | 80 | 70 | 77 |  Areruya | 72 | 81 | 81 | 68 | 76 | 78 | 76 |  Vansevenant | 74 | 74 | 80 | 70 | 80 | 78 | 79 |  Valter | 72 | 78 | 80 | 69 | 78 | 75 | 76 |  Ardila | 66 | 81 | 80 | 62 | 75 | 70 | 69 |  Higuita | 69 | 79 | 80 | 66 | 75 | 78 | 76 |  Van Niekerk | 69 | 75 | 80 | 64 | 74 | 75 | 72 |  Gesbert | 71 | 74 | 80 | 68 | 73 | 78 | 80 |  Aranburu | 69 | 77 | 80 | 68 | 71 | 79 | 70 | | Romo | 71 | 72 | 80 | 67 | 71 | 76 | 78 |  Formolo | 72 | 79 | 80 | 69 | 71 | 76 | 76 |  Schmid | 72 | 76 | 79 | 70 | 79 | 78 | 71 | | Pidcock | 78 | 75 | 76 | 74 | 81 | 78 | 75 |
That name is Lopez. He finished 3rd in 21, 6th in ‘22 and 4th in ’23 so he should certainly be fighting for a top 5 finish at the end.
A little further down the list is Yates who was 2nd last year and 7th in ’21 so he also seems likely to be in the battle at the end.
Areruya is a new name on the favorites list for this race as he does not have a history here, but there is no reason to believe his incredible skill set won’t play well. Aranburu, Valter, Higuita, and Formolo have similar, albeit slightly weaker skill sets, while Ardila is also the same kind of rider but lacks in energy stats.
Vansevenant has already had an outstanding season and he has finished in the top 30 twice before in this race but with his added maturity he will look to improve on that this year. Romo and Schmid are two more young guns hoping to make a mark this year. Gesbert is a little older than those three but is also looking for his first top result in the race, his all-round skill set should work well.
Van Niekerk is the leading contender from the PCT. The puncheur fields is deep in the PCT this year so the PT teams will glad he is the only invader from that group. He finished 14th last year.
The last rider on the list, Pidcock, would not normally be included but he has shown an ability to stay with the top puncheurs already this year, so maybe he can be a factor at Amstel Gold although with Areruya also here a domestique role seems more likely.
The startlist includes the maximum of 192 riders.
Startlist
 
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 12-01-2025 17:15
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World Champion
Posts: 13560
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Here's to Formolo making the Giro forgotten with some great results in the Ardennes.
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| ember |
Posted on 12-01-2025 18:12
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Team Leader
Posts: 7057
Joined: 27-03-2008
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Seeing how the puncheurs have done so far this year when facing each other, maybe Vansevenant must be considered top favourite here. But it's obviously very close at the top. MAL and Areruya are both frightening if they're able to turn the race a very difficult one, but not sure the hills are long enough here for that. If they're able to, that should play in favour of Valter too, judging by stats. Though, positioning at the key moments will probably define his race, fingers crossed he's recognized by the AI and allowed to race up front!
Valter should be in the lower half of the top 10, that's was least the expectation starting the season, and it feels like what he has done so far, could back it up. Expecting a top 10, and anything more will be a very good result. |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 12-01-2025 18:44
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3030
Joined: 11-09-2010
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Our team is stronger than it usually has been in the hilly classics, but the expectations are quite low. Hopefully we can join the break and take it a bit from there.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 12-01-2025 20:23
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5234
Joined: 29-09-2018
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So, let the Ardennes begin! Very important triple for Schmid, and really looking forward to see what he can do here! Grand-Duché was great, but far more mountainous - and quite some strong puncheurs weren't there. So this will be the first real test of his skills.
I guess looking at what seems to be needed for puncheurs with the current setting - hills, mountains, acceleration, sprint - I can be rather positive about his chances, but that was also the case with Theuns in the cobbled monuments and Groves in flat classics, so that's not really an indicator of potential success. Still hoping for a great result - Top 10 would be cool, Top 15 would be perfectly fine.
Thanks for the preview, good luck to all!
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 13-01-2025 05:29
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Tour de France Champion
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Aranburu did well here last year, but damn, that's a lot of names in front of him even after training. We'll see how it goes! Not sure there's any way that training is worth it at this point, but we can try.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 13-01-2025 08:35
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Classics Specialist
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Ideally Higuita finishes inside the top-10 here. Should be possible, but has had some mixed performances so far this season.
Thank you for the preview, Ulrich. Good luck to all!
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 13-01-2025 08:46
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World Champion
Posts: 11621
Joined: 17-12-2014
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Would love to say that with no Herklotz everyone might clear out for a proper MAL vs Areruya duel but don’t think that will be the case at all, the proper punchers are as big a favourites as any hybrid here.
Hoping Pidcock-Areruya can be a killer combination like in Balkans last year - whichever way around is fine by me, wouldn’t even hate us trying an Areruya attack to set up a Pidcock sprint.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
1x  x1
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 05-12-2025 15:03
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| Bikex |
Posted on 13-01-2025 10:47
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Team Leader
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Last year Gidich won here. I really hope he can challenge for the win again. It's about time my team picks up some pace. So far this season was not a lot of fun, besides some minor successes. It's definitely time for our first victory! |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 13-01-2025 13:08
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2797
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Let's continue that Giro form, Alexey.
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| ryant |
Posted on 13-01-2025 16:28
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2388
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This was Yates' best result of the Ardennes classics last season and we hope to go one better this time around! As ever, the competition is stiff but hopefully we can do well here - with Romo in support we hope to have some good depth scoring here as well.
Good luck!
 John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25Red Bull Driver in RFactor
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 13-01-2025 23:25
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Team Leader
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I don't have much hope of a good result given the field but fingers crossed we can be active!
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| ember |
Posted on 14-01-2025 08:24
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Team Leader
Posts: 7057
Joined: 27-03-2008
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Valter!!! 
Wow, oh wow. In such a field, that is a very surprising result by him. He seemed to play it perfect all the way, and to also have the needed luck for the positioning towards the sprint, being able to sit near the front and launch relatively early. Definitely thought Lutsenko would come around, but then to see him loose momentum with 100 meters to go was a big moment. Also nice to see us as a team contribute from early on, as it was an indication Valter was favoured by the AI.
Must say Vansevenant is quite a rider, though, relentless attacking not giving and result this time, but that was still the kind of racing which has rewarded him earlier this season. Lucky for Valter everyone was able to come back this time around!
Thank you for the report, UU. It obviously had me engaged in it while reading through! |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 14-01-2025 08:53
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3837
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For a second I thought Higuita could go for a top-5 when I saw him well placed near the end, but seems like the juice ran out a bit too early. Still, tenth is decent enough. Not having depth is never ideal, but nice to read that the team (or at least Eaton) was working well all day.
Congratulations on a great win, ember, and thank you again for a fantastic report, Ulrich!
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| Bikex |
Posted on 14-01-2025 09:04
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Team Leader
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Hmm 5th is not very satisfying. Cool to see Quita active, even if he also couldn't get a good result in the end. Thanks for the nice report, UU!
And also congrats, ember! |
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 14-01-2025 09:04
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World Champion
Posts: 11621
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Well, glad that rather than the rivals Areruya and Lopez committing mutually assured destruction on each other, it was the rivals Vansevenant and Pidcock. Do feel for Mauri though, an awesome ride from him (Areruya-like really which makes me grateful someone else filled the role) showing his insane strength.
Happy enough with 3rd from Areruya behind two better pure puncheurs in what is on paper his weakest Ardennes race (and probably hilly classic generally). Congrats to ember on a great win and thanks Ulrich for a pulse-pounding report, a lot of turns in the final kilometres but you charted them well and very entertaining!
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[PT] Xero Racing
5x x5
1x x1
2x x2
2x x2 |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 14-01-2025 11:17
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World Champion
Posts: 13560
Joined: 05-08-2008
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It's not a bad result from Formolo, but it would have been nice if he would have been able to gain a few more spots given the great team work throughout the day.
Good depth score as well with Champoussin, Remco, Kron and Gerts.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 14-01-2025 20:33
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5234
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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After taking 5th in Grand-Duché against a slightly limited field, Schmid finishing 6th on a completely different course, against all the top puncheurs (bar Herklotz, obviously) is a great outcome once again! It looks like he has really arrived at the extended world-class level - although I'll wait for the other 2/3 of the Ardennes week before drawing a conclusion.
But getting a Top 10 both on a pretty climber-friendly route (G-D) and on a pure puncheur course (Amstel) suggests he's a very complete rider and competitve in any race, so training him should really be worth it!
However, during the race I wasn't that sure he'd do well, given that he was never really close to the front. But he was right there when it mattered - a little too far back to fight for the podium, but looking at the Top 5 I'll definitely not complain about taking 6th! Errazkin in 23rd is nothing to scoff at, either, can't expect too much more from a domestique - although I think he could've finished higher had he been attentive earlier on, not having to close a big gap afterwards ^^
Congrats to ember, looks like Valter is really doing what you expected him to as a replacement for Mohoric 
Thanks for the report.
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| knockout |
Posted on 14-01-2025 20:44
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8235
Joined: 21-12-2010
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Not sure if i should be happy with lopez looking kinda strong in the final or mad about his positioning. I guess i can live with the result in the end
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 14-01-2025 22:23
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2797
Joined: 20-04-2008
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Oooh so close. But second is a good result. I'll take it.
Congrats ember!
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