The end of the season is imminent, all races but the final one have been raced - and all remaining questions will be answered in Lombardia!
But there's one question being answered now: how do the current standings look like? Well, I could answer that by just posting the table. But no, I actually can't, you know me. I'll cover everything else first - but feel free to fast-forward if you just want the numbers.
One race was mandatory for everyone at the beginning of the month, and 5 teams indeed did only the GP Moscow. 15 teams additionally participated in one of the two remaining PTHC classics - and only two teams did the full program so far, Evonik and Gazelle.
But let's start with the race that had everyone present, GP Moscow. A flat race, one for the sprinters - indeed won by a sprinter. But as almost always, none of the Top 3 sprinters, with the best of these finishing 8th. This time, it was Kanter benefitting from the top guys' bad tactics, winning the race and scoring 225 points! The next Puma was only 73rd, meaning that Kanter's 7 teammates only got minimum points - 260 in total for the Pumas. And a strong statement in the Top 5 or even podium fight!
Same situation for Lidl, who had Kemboi sprinting to a great 2nd place - and having no-one else finishing in the more-than-minimum points. They even just had 7 riders on the startlist, so even less finishing points - 191 points overall for Lidl.
And the third best team did the same - Jakobsen got a great result with his 3rd place, his teammates just did the bare minimum of finishing the race. 164 points for ZARA, some more big points in the fight against relegation!
The next one was the Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec, a PTHC race with most of the world's best puncheurs present! However, the world's best wasn't the smartest one, with MAL's mid-range attack ending in a major blow-up.
Instead, Kinoshita - one of the discipline's top stars as well - mastered the sprint of a group of 5 to add another victory to his already impressive (career) scoresheet! His 170 points were the only ones the Minions scored - not bringing them much closer to safety, but a classic win is always great to get!
Mohoric didn't have a great season so far, but in Canada he was attentive when the decisive attack happened - and ended up 2nd. Another big score boost for Aker, who seem closer to the win than ever! They didn't get many depth points, either, with only Swift and Potts ending up in the Top 50, but 129 is still the second highest score!
Lutsenko on the other hand is having a very strong season, and his 3rd place in Québec is another confirmation of his great form. Gazelle also had Teunissen, Peters and flat beast Mundle in the Top 50, scoring 106 points in total - and they needed these additional small depth points, with Valter and Vesuvio ending up just 1 point behind...
And yet another hilly PTHC classic - this time in Japan. The last race before the season finale - and a really tough one, with a lot of repeated climbing.
Whereas he miserably failed in Canada, MAL played it much smarter, not trying to stay ahead when the chase behind was on. He saved some energy for the final sprint - enough to win the race in a very close finish! 170 points for him, with Polanc adding a strong 16th place and Gavars a Top 50 finish. 188 points for Evonik - a final push for the title, or too little, too late?
Sagan was very strong in the finale, but very narrowly lost out to Lopez in the end. Still a great result for him, rewarded with 125 points. Kwiatkowski on the other hand ended up on a very disappointing 38th place, adding just 2 points to make it 127 for Binance.
3rd place in the race went to PCT, resulting in 4th placed De Bie being the 3rd best PT rider - and Lidl being the 3rd highest scoring team thanks to their leader's 90 points.
So, let's summarize these three races. On top, we get two teams - I won't call them "winners of the month" yet, with one October race left - and they are Lidl and Minions! The former had a great Kemboi result in Moscow and a decent De Bie performance in Japan, with the latter being decent in Russia and winning in Canada. Both teams scored 281 points.
Which is 5 more than Evonik in 2nd place. A disappointment, for sure. With a solid GP Moscow and MAL's win in Japan, even an OK-ish performance by their top puncheur in Québec would have been enough to top the list. But his failed attack cost them a lot of points, and probably the last tiny hope of still fighting for the PT win.
Puma only raced once, and they won. Kanter's Moscow win was enough to bring them to 4th place - and they could very well stand on top of the October update after Lombardia. 260 points for the Germans, just 21 behind the leaders - but they won't give away the win for free!
Rounding off the Top 5 are ELCO, with a decent-ish Moscow result by Coquard and a rare good Koretzky performance in Canada. If both had consistently scored at this level throughout the year, the Greeks probably wouldn't be in big trouble right now... 236 points for them.
The last team above 200 points are Gazelle - who definitely were hoping for more in Japan, but Lutsenko kind of had his "MAL-Québec-moment" there.
The next three teams are close behind, with Binance scoring 197 - mostly thanks to Sagan's 2nd place in Japan - PT leaders Aker getting 195 - Mohoric' 2nd place in Québec worked wonders - and ZARA, who mainly did well in Russia and ended up with 193 points.
Rounding off the Top 10 are Vesuvio, losing more than 100 points to Evonik, and scoring 171. Québec was strong, Russia not quite as much. ISA and cycleYorkshire are next with 151 and 150 points respectively, with Tinkoff, Amaysim and Rabobank rounding off the Top 15.
At the bottom, we have Polar - who definitely were podium contenders two months ago, but haven't scored a lot since. Only 63 points for the Finns. Grieg did a little bettwer with 85, with Carlsberg at 92 being the third team below 100 points.
Here's the full list - without RD or PpRD calculations, you'll get them at the end of the month:
Team
Mos
GPC
Jcup
Total
1
Lidl Cycling
191
0
90
281
1
Minions
111
170
0
281
3
Evonik - ELKO
66
22
188
276
4
Team Puma - SAP
260
0
0
260
5
ELCO - ABEA
148
88
0
236
6
Gazelle
64
106
33
203
7
Binance
70
0
127
197
8
Aker - MOT
66
129
0
195
9
ZARA - Irizar
164
0
29
193
10
EA Vesuvio
66
105
0
171
11
ISA - Hexacta
98
53
0
151
12
cycleYorkshire
150
0
0
150
13
Tinkoff - La Datcha Team
118
20
0
138
14
Amaysim Australia.com
62
0
67
129
15
Rabobank
88
32
0
120
16
King Power
40
75
0
115
17
MOL Cycling Team
54
0
52
106
18
Moser - Sygic
102
0
0
102
19
Cedevita
100
0
0
100
20
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
92
0
0
92
21
Grieg-Maersk
79
6
0
85
22
Polar
63
0
0
63
Full Ranking
We said it in the September updates: the race for the title isn't really close this year. And indeed, despite losing some of their lead, Aker are still comfortably sitting on top, currently totalling 7,504 points. They even still have a chance at beating last year's winning score of 7,644 points, just proving how strong of a season they had! With just Lombardia to go, it's looking great for them - but it's still not over! We've seen both in Canada and Japan how much of an impact a single bad day - or a bad strategic decision - can have...
But let's be honest: with the gap to 2nd exceeding the amount of points awarded for a monument win, it's looking really good for Aker. However, Evonik - and MAL in particular - haven't thrown in the towel yet. With 7,169 points, they trail by 335 points; a monument win is worth 280. So in addition to winning Lombardia, they'd have to hope Aker don't score a lot, and Evonik would need some great depth on top of that. Impossible? No. Unlikely? Yep. But we'll soon find out...
However, it's much more likely that Evonik will slip down to 3rd rather than winning the title. Because EA Vesuvio are just 42 points down - and they'll surely have some ambitions in Italy, too. Evonik should be stronger on paper, but show me a race that's raced on paper...
It's pretty likely that these three teams will indeed end up on the podium; the gap between 3rd and 4th is exactly the points for a monument win, 280. And in 4th, we have the Pumas, thanks to Kanter's rather surprising Moscow win. They could very well win Lombardia - but would it be enough to overtake either of Evonik or Vesuvio?
On the other hand, Herklotz will have to deliver, as Polar are just 72 points down, totalling 6,775. The trend is clearly speaking against the Finns, but any trend can eventually be stopped and turned around. It's about time for them to do so, if they are to hold onto their Top 5 spot...
Because Gazelle in 6th are just 77 points down as well, and they should have some bigger hopes to get a great result from Lombardia. On the other hand, they probably don't really have to fear their chasers, with Tinkoff being 200 points down already. Except if Skujins does his best race of the year... Cedevita are just 44 points further down - totalling 6,450 - but their hopes of a great Lombardia result probably aren't extremely high.
What's sure (well, not mathematically, but still...) is that the Top 8 teams will hold onto these spots. MOL in 9th place are 554 points down at 5,896, not a gap that can be closed with a normal race outcome. On the other hand, the fight for the final Top 10 spots will be tense; cycleYorkshire are 37 points down, and King Power just another 25 points. That's 3 teams separated by 62 points, fighting for two Top 10 spots!
There's a small chance that we'll end up with Lidl in the Top 10, but De Bie would need to win in Lombardia. They're 256 points behind cycleYorkshire in 10th - doable, but not easy. And they have Carlsberg trailing by just 56 points, with the two teams most likely ending up 12th and 13th, order to be defined.
It's then a gap of 340 points down to Grieg, totalling 5,207 points. The Scandinavians might be at risk of missing out on the Top 15, but they're not really in big relegation danger. Nor are Moser, who currently hold the final Top 15 spot with 5,149 points.
But it's only 100 points down to 16th, where we find ZARA. Jakobsen probably definitely saved them in Moscow, but there's still a risk of dropping down to PCT. 5,044 points are 262 more than 18th place... Rabobank are even a little bit more in danger, being 36 points behind the Spaniards, or 226 clear of the relegation zone.
These margins basically need that the teams on the bottom 5 spots need to win the final race of the year to have a chance of still reaching safety. The first of them is Amaysim - clear winners in PCT last year, but beaten by 3 of their fellow promoting teams. With 4,782 points, they really need a miraculous result to bring Rabobank or ZARA down to PCT - all others aren't realistically at risk.
Despite having a good month so far, it's an even bigger task for ELCO, sitting 17 points behind Amaysim. Still, these are the only two teams having some tiny hopes of survival left.
ISA as the next team are another 200 points down - or almost 500 behind safety. Minions have an additional 200 points gap, and Binance basically would need to take the Top 8 spots in Lombardia - and basically no Rabobank rider finishing the race...
Here are the numbers - individual standings will only be posted after the last race:
Well, well, well. It obviously looks very promising for us. Though, I remember one edition of Lombardia, I think it was when Festina and Vesuvio fought for the title (?), where one of the teams got a massive points haul due to the positioning in the sprint for top placings/depth placings. Looking at the startlist and the depth Evonik got, we must finish the job and grab a good amount of points ourselves to not depend on how luck plays it part for Evonik.
For the fight against the drop, it looks really difficult for any of the teams in the relegation zone now to get out of it. As Fabianski writes, a win is likely needed, and that looks difficult to achieve for all of them.
First time we've had a low pressure finish to the season in quite a while. A top 15 looks nearly secured now and there's no way for us to relegate. What a season—thanks David!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Looks like we won't be sweating as much this year. We could still finish abobe Zara, but obviously the only goal that we care about is to finish above the red line.
