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Tour of Northern Europe - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 17-05-2024 03:01
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 3914
Joined: 02-11-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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Welcome to the 2023 Tour of Northern Europe. Perhaps Tour of Belgium would be a better title, but this year’s route does do a little more touring than last year, as it gets three new sprint stages (3, 5 and 7) which include a start in Düsseldorf on Stage 5 and a day in the Grand Duchy on Stage 7.
The GC stages remain unchanged although the final hilly stage is stage 6 where it was the final stage last year. That stage and stage 2 are both hilly rated and feature short sharp climbs to the finish. Stage 4 adds some cobbles to the bergs and finishes on the cobbled Bosberg climb. Stage 1 is a time trial, it has no hills but about half the 28k are cobbles.
Of late this race has been won by climbers with Kwiatkowski winning last year and Wirtgen the year before. Neither of those two is back but 2020 winner  Oliveira, who also finished 3rd last year, is back. Oliveira is more of a TTer with all round skills.
2019 was the last time a cobbler won this race and that winner was  Wisniowski. He is back and if he could win again, it might secure the Pro Tour title for Aker. He was second last year so he has proven he can compete on this course. But last year’s 4th and 5th placed,  Cavagna and  Polanc, are also back so some of the other title contenders are well represented. Oliveira was riding for another title contender, EA, when he finished 3rd last year but he moved over to Grieg this year and so EA relies on their puncheurs, led by  Valter and perhaps the allround skills of Lampawog. The other two in the PT top 6, Polar and Cedevita, both seem to lack a rider with the combination of time trial, hills and cobble skills needed for this race.
We will look at 3 groups of GC contenders, centered around those strong in each main discipline (TT, HI, CO). First the TTers who can survive the hills and also ride the cobbles.
| Rider | FL | HI | CO | TT | RS | SP | AC |  Cosnefroy | 76 | 71 | 69 | 78 | 81 | 69 | 69 |  Van Baarle | 76 | 72 | 74 | 77 | 76 | 57 | 70 | | Cavagna | 77 | 74 | 73 | 76 | 74 | 73 | 71 |  Leknessund | 73 | 73 | 69 | 76 | 80 | 65 | 69 | | Oliveira | 70 | 71 | 70 | 76 | 72 | 59 | 68 | | Anderberg | 78 | 69 | 80 | 76 | 76 | 60 | 73 |  Stavrakakis | 76 | 68 | 77 | 75 | 70 | 64 | 68 |
Cavagna and Oliveira proved how to do it in this group last year. Put up a good TT and then survive the hills and cobbles to the finish. None of these riders are that strong in the hills but Anderberg and Stavrakakis will look to gain time on the cobbled stage as well. These two have similar skill sets to Gamper, who won the first stage last year. Anderberg also gives Aker a big one-two with Wisniowski, who just misses qualifying for this list. Others just off the list include Lampawog and Bester.
There are a number of other strong TTers on the startlist but most will be handicapped on Stage 1 by their cobbles skill (or lack their of) and limited abilities in the hills. The best pure TTers in the race are  Yatsevich and  Viennet while Kiriakidis overcame his limited cobbles skills to finish 6th overall last year, but he is the only one of the pure TT riders with any climbing skills.
The second group is the puncheurs who can also handle the TT and the Cobbles with some competence, last year’s winner came from this group.
| Rider | FL | HI | CO | TT | RS | SP | AC |  De Bie | 73 | 84 | 68 | 72 | 76 | 72 | 75 | | Van der Poel | 73 | 77 | 72 | 69 | 77 | 72 | 77 | | Malecki | 73 | 76 | 73 | 70 | 75 | 71 | 76 | | Godon | 74 | 75 | 70 | 68 | 77 | 70 | 73 |
Only four riders make the cut here and they all come from Lidl or Gazelle. Both Malecki and De Bie made the top 20 last year but lost too much time in the TT to claw their way back to the top of the GC.
But the race has 3 hilly rated stages and as a result a lot of teams have sent punchers, who at a minimum, will look for stage wins, even if they don’t have the all-round skill set to compete in the GC.
| Rider | FL | HI | CO | TT | RS | SP | AC |  McCarthy | 70 | 82 | 69 | 58 | 75 | 65 | 74 | | Valter | 72 | 80 | 61 | 66 | 75 | 69 | 78 |  Müller | 70 | 80 | 68 | 63 | 71 | 66 | 73 | | Koretzky | 72 | 80 | 62 | 62 | 68 | 70 | 77 |  Van Niekerk | 69 | 79 | 66 | 65 | 75 | 64 | 74 |  Vansevenant | 73 | 78 | 62 | 69 | 77 | 69 | 78 | | Geniets | 74 | 78 | 64 | 68 | 77 | 62 | 69 |  Ardila | 66 | 78 | 62 | 68 | 69 | 62 | 73 |  Gerts | 77 | 78 | 82 | 67 | 80 | 72 | 70 |  Romo | 70 | 78 | 60 | 66 | 75 | 66 | 69 |
Among these riders Gerts is the most likely GC contender with his strong cobbles and a TT skill that only barely misses the cut for inclusion in the prior table. He established his GC credentials by finishing 10th last year. The remainder will likely be too far behind after Stage 1 to threaten the GC but Müller proved this group can be a threat for stage wins by winning Stage 2 last year.
Finally, there are the cobblers who can also get up the hills and ride a passable TT.
| Rider | FL | HI | CO | TT | RS | SP | AC | | Wisniowski | 80 | 71 | 83 | 74 | 76 | 73 | 76 | | Pedersen | 77 | 69 | 83 | 69 | 80 | 78 | 77 |  Per | 79 | 70 | 82 | 72 | 75 | 74 | 74 | | Kasperkiewicz | 76 | 74 | 81 | 72 | 77 | 59 | 67 | | Van Hooydonck | 73 | 71 | 81 | 72 | 74 | 61 | 72 | | Polanc | 72 | 73 | 78 | 70 | 73 | 67 | 75 | | Bohli | 74 | 68 | 77 | 70 | 75 | 74 | 68 |
Wisniowski headlines this group with his big rival Pedersen 2nd on the list. Van Hooydonck carries the banner for the wild card teams.
Other cobblers who don’t quite have the all-round skills include Spengler, Altur and the Tinkoff duo of Senechal and Kamyshev.
In addition to all the GC action there are 3 stages for the sprinters. Although stage 7 includes a significant amount of climbing so it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see that end with a reduced group.
The sprint field includes:
| Rider | FL | HI | CO | TT | RS | SP | AC |  Gaviria | 76 | 72 | 72 | 65 | 76 | 83 | 84 | | Groenewegen | 73 | 67 | 59 | 64 | 71 | 82 | 81 | | Van der Lijke | 73 | 76 | 64 | 66 | 71 | 82 | 79 | | Farantakis | 74 | 66 | 66 | 72 | 72 | 81 | 80 |  Enger | 73 | 69 | 58 | 71 | 73 | 81 | 78 | | Kennaugh | 75 | 63 | 56 | 61 | 68 | 80 | 78 | | Banaszek | 74 | 65 | 59 | 63 | 73 | 79 | 81 |  Kalaba | 74 | 69 | 57 | 70 | 72 | 79 | 79 | | Ovsyannikov | 74 | 68 | 75 | 64 | 72 | 79 | 78 | | Lander | 77 | 69 | 73 | 59 | 72 | 79 | 77 | | Harrison | 72 | 67 | 73 | 72 | 70 | 78 | 81 | | Pedersen | 77 | 69 | 83 | 69 | 80 | 78 | 77 | | Bogdanovics | 73 | 62 | 60 | 63 | 69 | 78 | 77 |
Gaviria is the strongest sprinter on paper, by some margin. He might also hope to make a GC run if he can put together a reasonable TT result. PCT man Groenewegen is his top rival while Van der Lijke won Stage 3 last year. Pedersen will hope to pull off a big sprint result to boost his GC chances, particularly on Stage 7 when the riders will be pushed to their limit.
The maximum possible field here with 24 teams and 192 riders.
Startlist
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| redordead |
Posted on 17-05-2024 05:38
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Team Leader
Posts: 5511
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I'm mostly here for the xp. Hopefully it's a good race and important for the title as well I guess.
Thanks for the preview.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| knockout |
Posted on 17-05-2024 07:06
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8235
Joined: 21-12-2010
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I'm scared.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 17-05-2024 07:18
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7771
Joined: 04-07-2012
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Here for bacon and beans for the most part
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 17-05-2024 13:10
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5234
Joined: 29-09-2018
PCM$: 185.00
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Haven't followed this race closely before, but looks like a pretty cool course actually  Van Baarle and Cavagna look pretty strong, given that cobbles skills tend to have little impact in stage races - otherwise, Anderberg (who must be the favourite for S1) could do something great as well. In any case, huge race for Aker with Wisniowski plus Anderberg, let's see what Polanc can do against them...
By now, I'm expecting to race here next year as well, will be interesting to see what Küng can do 
Thanks for the preview and the reports!
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| SotD |
Posted on 17-05-2024 14:48
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
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We need to pull off something crazy here in order to have a shot at survival. Not too realistic unfortunately despite having a (on paper atleast) decent setup.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 17-05-2024 18:40
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16552
Joined: 27-07-2011
PCM$: 13638.70
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Since we're relatively safe at this point, this race isn't as high stakes as I assumed it would be earlier in the season. Even so, a big performance from Per would be much appreciated obviously. Hope the AI is good and we get a real versatility show here. Always been a unique race I wanted to take part in, but I rarely went for stage race wildcards with cobbles heavy teams.
Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| ember |
Posted on 17-05-2024 21:36
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Team Leader
Posts: 7057
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 900.00
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Well, well, well. Huge race for us, as we need to use ToNE together with our PTHC outings in Rheden and Arenberg to give ourselves a good gap down to the other title challengers before we start the final month of racing. On paper, and with the stage profiles, we have the chance to do that, I feel, but it really comes down to how AI behaves and treats us. We need the cobbles to count, both in the TT and especially out on the road stages.
Must admit I have big expectations for this. Wisniowski has been superb this season, and if this really is his year, it would have been fitting to find a way to score great here, both GC and stage wise. Anderberg is our wildcard here, and assuming he does better than Wisniowski in the TT, which he should, I really need AI to handle them well moving forward with the race! |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 18-05-2024 14:06
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2797
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We have many riders who have a chance of doing well here, but it's very hard to predict whether they actually will. Fingers crossed
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 18-05-2024 14:10
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Tour de France Champion
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Could have done a little bit better given Kasper is ahead, but overall I'm satisfied with that performance. We're within the GC margin of error for time whereas a lot of other cobblers and puncheurs are not. A lot of the guys ahead are pure TT guys.
Gonna be about surviving the next stage without losing much time, then getting ready to hopefully crush the cobbles.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| knockout |
Posted on 18-05-2024 15:54
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8235
Joined: 21-12-2010
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Seems like cobbled TTs have gone heavily towards the TT stat. Which i selfishly kinda like because that reduces the chance for a huge Aker show in Arenberg 
But this result could also hurt Polanc here quite a bit since he starts the next few stages outside the top 50 GC and while he is still the best placed evonik lad, he could still struggle to get favourable AI. S2 might be absolutely crucial for us here.
So really not sure who this stage benefits the most outside of obvious riders like Cosnefroy or Van Baarle who must like this result.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 05-12-2025 18:29
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 18-05-2024 17:22
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Grand Tour Champion
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Everyone finished inside the time limit, which I bloody hope so since it was a TT
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| ember |
Posted on 18-05-2024 18:03
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Team Leader
Posts: 7057
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Ouch, that was very far from what I hoped for, I must admit. Especially also with Arenberg in mind. Really thought Anderberg had all chances to win that one, but clearly in favour of the TTists. And as Fabianski points out pre race regarding cobbles and stage races, I fear the start of not getting yellow, will see us struggle a lot moving on, as I fear this could be a puncheur/sprint race from now on. Really hope I am wrong, though! |
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 19-05-2024 03:26
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This really is a "must score big" race for us if we're going to survive and that's about a good a start as I could have asked for from Cosnefroy. Going to be challenging with the hills and cobbles over the rest of this race but he's got a well-rounded enough skill set that avoiding a bad day in the saddle could mean success. Fingers crossed
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 19-05-2024 17:03
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 16552
Joined: 27-07-2011
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Obviously can't be happy with Per losing 4 minutes to drop out of GC when Aker gets both Wisniowski and (shockingly) Anderberg in the front group (or close), several minutes ahead. Stats don't bear that difference out. Even crazier for Gerts to be dropped. He should be gaining on every other cobbler in a stage like this, not losing two minutes with Pedersen, one of the weakest climbers.
I guess Per was bound to have a dud race at some point though, that's just how it goes, and the AI was always gonna be finnicky here. It's less of an issue since we have a gap to the relegation fight now (though I'd still rather not test that!).
Congrats to EA and Lidl
Edited by baseballlover312 on 19-05-2024 17:11
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| SotD |
Posted on 19-05-2024 17:11
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
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Over and out…
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| knockout |
Posted on 19-05-2024 17:57
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8235
Joined: 21-12-2010
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Yep, this is not going well for us. Valter winning the stage (congrats SN!), Wisniowski with a great stage, Anderberg also very strong, Polanc losing time to all cobblers on a hilly stage, ...
this does not sound good at all.
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| jph27 |
Posted on 19-05-2024 18:11
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Pretty solid hilly stage from the team there. Letting Valter get a gap wasn't ideal, but will take 2nd and 4th.
If we can survive the cobbles then both De Bie and vdP should be able to make the top 10, but not sure if the other hilly stage will be selective enough to fight for the overall. |
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| ember |
Posted on 19-05-2024 18:51
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Team Leader
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Congratulations on the win, SN. EA and Puma could make a very surprising title push here if that was a stage telling how the final hilly stage will go too
Having said that, we did damage limitation well there, with Wisniowski climbing to 5th and Anderberg kind of surviving and holding on to a GC top 10. It all comes down to the AI and how the cobbles stage is played out. We need it to be selective, and we need to be aggressive and part of the attacks/riders that get a gap. |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 19-05-2024 19:59
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World Champion
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With 3 guys in the break, it was clear we are not going for the GC here.
This game has not treated Gerts well in the hills, but there's really no reason for him not to be in the front group today.
And Cosnefroy looking like he might have a big race here is more bad news for us.
Great effor by Hellemose to get the KoM jersey, but we need bigger points here, which it doesn't look like we are going to get.
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Tour of Northern Europe 
