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Tour of Slovenia - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 25-03-2023 18:41
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 Tour of Slovenia
The Tour of Slovenia once again features on the PTHC calendar. This is the 14th edition of the Tour so the race has a long history with some famous winners like Boassen Hagen (2009) and Bobridge (2020) and some not so famous winners like Kai Reus (2017) and Yasmani Martinez (2014). In the last few years the race has been a competition between the time trialists who could climb a little and the puncheurs who could time trial a little. Last year’s winner Filippo Ganna fits in the former category.
For 2022 the race gets a new route although the TT/Hill balance remains. The race opens with a flat stage into Celje. Celje then hosts stage 2, a 31k team time trial. Stages 3 and 4 both belong to the climbers, stage 3 which finishes with a short climb just outside Ljubljana and shouldn’t be that selective. But the TT guys will be more worried about Stage 4 to Predmeja which has more climbing and and two very punchy climbs at the end. But any time-trialists who can stay close will have a big opportunity to regain time with a massive 53k ITT in Trebjne on Stage 5.
Winning the race will require a blend of skills but it seems likely that the TT will be the most selective stage. So group 1 of the favorites are the riders who are strong in the TT and at least solid in the hills and mountains.
| Nat. | Name | MO | HI | TT | RS | AC |  |  Wirtgen | 78 | 75 | 81 | 75 | 72 |  |  Ganna | 69 | 73 | 80 | 81 | 73 |  |  Dunbar | 77 | 76 | 79 | 77 | 68 |  |  Fraile | 76 | 72 | 79 | 76 | 66 |  |  Keizer | 79 | 69 | 79 | 76 | 70 |  |  Mano | 72 | 75 | 79 | 73 | 66 |  | Oliveira | 70 | 72 | 79 | 72 | 72 |  |  Dennis | 74 | 75 | 78 | 75 | 68 |  |  Kämna | 77 | 71 | 78 | 73 | 67 | |  Conci | 77 | 74 | 77 | 75 | 68 |  |  Ioannidis | 75 | 73 | 77 | 74 | 70 |  |  Vlasov | 75 | 72 | 77 | 71 | 69 | | Oliveira | 73 | 72 | 77 | 74 | 70 | |  Fernandes | 75 | 70 | 77 | 77 | 67 |  |  Kung | 70 | 73 | 77 | 72 | 71 |  |  Vangstad | 72 | 70 | 77 | 75 | 68 |
This group includes the some of the biggest favorites. Wirtgen and Dunbar are probably the strongest overall riders in the race. Neither of them is great in the hills or in a sprint, so they may be challenged at the finish on the hilly stages but they don't seem to be likely to be dropped. And Wirtgen is also a top TT rider while Dunbar is very strong as well. A step below these two but still very strong on strong all-around are Mano and Dennis. While Fraile, Kämna and Conci are good diesel climbers and solid in the TT but at greater risk of getting dropped on the punchy climbs.
Ganna, Ivo Oliveira, and Keizer are the remaining really strong TT riders but the defending champion is one of the weakest on the list in other terrains albeit with outstanding secondaries. Keizer will be challenged if the hilly stages are ridden aggressively, he will need a strong TTT result to get positioning in the peloton. The remaining riders are probably not favorites for the overall but could be strong contenders for a top 5 or 10.
Group 2 among the favorites is made up of riders who aren’t quite as strong in the TT but should thrive on the hilly stages. It is a small group
| Nat. | Name | MO | HI | TT | RS | AC | |  Izagirre | 73 | 80 | 76 | 71 | 63 | |  Bobridge | 68 | 82 | 76 | 73 | 79 |  |  Boily | 76 | 78 | 70 | 72 | 74 | | Errazkin | 74 | 78 | 70 | 75 | 73 |
Of these only the first two are likely threats to the overall GC. Both are only a little weaker in the TT than Group 1 but they are two of the strongest riders in the hills and will want stages 3 and 4 to be very selective, although 2020 winner Bobridge is weaker on the the long climbs particularly and Izaguirre has also lost a little with age.
Group 3 is the remaining top time trial riders who will focus on a victory in Stage 5 and could threaten the GC if the earlier stages prove non-selective. Although, the ITT is not completely flat, so they will also have to deal with some undulations on that stage.
| Nat. | Name | MO | HI | TT | RS | AC |  |  Würtz | 67 | 71 | 83 | 78 | 70 |  | Zmorka | 61 | 66 | 82 | 75 | 70 | | Mullen | 62 | 70 | 81 | 74 | 70 | | Vlatos | 52 | 66 | 81 | 71 | 66 |  |  Paillot | 70 | 71 | 80 | 74 | 64 | | Lammertink | 64 | 69 | 80 | 76 | 68 | | Howson | 59 | 65 | 80 | 74 | 68 | | Sütterlin | 59 | 65 | 80 | 77 | 60 | | Gonzalez Salas | 57 | 60 | 80 | 76 | 54 | | Yatsevich | 55 | 68 | 80 | 81 | 63 | | Viennet | 54 | 67 | 80 | 75 | 64 |  | Beniusis | 69 | 60 | 79 | 73 | 67 | | Zakarin | 66 | 66 | 79 | 70 | 70 | | Hepburn | 64 | 66 | 79 | 77 | 69 | | Razumov | 63 | 70 | 79 | 72 | 66 | | Vorobev | 63 | 65 | 79 | 71 | 72 |  | Tanfield | 59 | 63 | 79 | 75 | 72 | | Dal Col | 58 | 64 | 79 | 72 | 70 |  | Goldstein | 55 | 61 | 79 | 72 | 61 |
Among these the standout names are Würtz and Paillot. Würtz will be favorite for the TT and his climbing abilities aren’t terrible so he may be in with a shout on the GC, particularly if his team proves strong in the TTT. Paillot just barely missed out on inclusion in Group 1 above. Zmorka likely lacks the climbing skills to trouble the GC but Ukrainian will definitely want to win Stage 5. The remainder on this list also fit in to that category.
For any of these riders to win the GC though they will need a competitive TTT team.
| Rdr Ct | Top 4 | Top 6 | All | | EA Vesuvio | 8 | 79.7 | 78.7 | 78.1 | | Polar | 8 | 79.7 | 78.3 | 77.8 | | Aker - MOT | 8 | 78.7 | 77.8 | 77.5 | | Tinkoff - La Datcha Team | 8 | 79.3 | 78.8 | 77.1 | | Duolingo | 8 | 79.0 | 77.7 | 76.3 | | Team Puma - SAP | 8 | 78.0 | 76.8 | 76.3 | | King Power | 8 | 78.0 | 77.2 | 76.1 | | Grieg-Maersk | 8 | 79.0 | 77.0 | 75.8 | | cycleYorkshire | 8 | 78.7 | 76.8 | 75.0 | | Minions - Subwoolfer | 8 | 77.0 | 76.0 | 74.8 | | Zara - Irizar | 8 | 77.7 | 76.0 | 74.6 | | Los Pollos Hermanos | 8 | 80.3 | 76.3 | 73.5 | | ELCO - ABEA | 8 | 78.0 | 75.0 | 73.1 | | Carlsberg - Danske Bank | 8 | 76.7 | 74.7 | 73.0 | | Indosat Ooredoo | 8 | 77.3 | 75.5 | 73.0 | | Assa Abloy | 8 | 78.0 | 74.5 | 72.0 | | Red Bull Zalgiris | 8 | 76.7 | 74.0 | 71.9 | | Crabbe-CC Chevigny | 8 | 74.0 | 70.0 | 68.3 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 8 | 73.0 | 71.0 | 67.8 | | Trans Looney Tunes | 8 | 73.7 | 70.2 | 67.8 | | Bralirwa - Stevens | 7 | 73.3 | 68.7 | 67.3 | | Strava | 8 | 64.3 | 63.3 | 62.4 |
This race illustrates the tremendous time-trialing depth in the peloton. The top 7 teams all average over 76 across their 8 riders. The top 3 of these don’t have a single rider below 76.
The best news here has to be for Wirtgen who is not only one of the top riders in the race but also rides with the favorites for the TTT. Izagirre is the other favorite who also has a top 3 TTT team. Bobridge, Ganna and Mano also enjoy the backing of deep TTT teams.
Among the top TTT squads Aker and Tinkoff seem less likely to be focused on the GC as neither boasts a top-class leader. Tinkoff include 2016 winner Yatsevich, but a repeat for him seems unlikely, instead Tinkoff will likely look to Uran and Vlasov, both of whom have a decent chance at staying at the front on the hilly stages. Aker will look to Lammertink and Foss to lead them.
The top favorites who may have to overcome a deficit from the TTT include Los Pollos and Keizer and Indosat and Dunbar. But both of them bring very solid TTT squads so any deficits should be manageable.
Forgotten among all the top class TT and climbing talent are the sprinters. They get one stage for glory, and that stage features some sizable climbs, so a breakaway win isn’t impossible. Assuming their teams can bring the race back together there are a small group of riders who will be looking for glory on Stage 1:
| Nat. | Name | FL | RS | SP | AC | | Farantakis | 74 | 72 | 80 | 80 |  | Carsi | 70 | 69 | 80 | 82 |  | Kalaba | 74 | 72 | 79 | 79 | | Reinhardt | 71 | 66 | 79 | 84 | |  Colbrelli | 74 | 72 | 79 | 75 | | Kreder | 73 | 71 | 77 | 78 | | Sbaragli | 76 | 70 | 77 | 78 |
Crabbe and Strava both bring multiple sprinters so look for them to be doing the chasing. In addition to Crabbe’s Carsi the best sprinter is Farantakis. He won a stage last year and given the small field he might be a decent bet to do it again.
Given the quality shown recently by the Cedevita TTT team it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pogacar return home to try and win his home race in the future. But in the meantime the home fans will have to root for some breakaway success as the Slovenian riders in the race aren’t going to trouble the GC standings. There are four of them (two with home team Trans Looney Tunes): Stimulak, Groselj,  Korosec, and Pibernik.
Startlist
Edited by Ulrich Ulriksen on 26-03-2023 16:26
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 25-03-2023 19:53
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Man, what on earth are we doing here?  Given how weak the sprinting field is, maybe El Sabbahi can do something on stage 1, perhaps a day in white is possible. Other than that, I can only see us scoring a point or two from breakaways, so please do that, kids!
Thanks for the lovely preview UU, really good read!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 25-03-2023 20:08
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Not tolerating the Yasmani Martinez slander 
We have a good TTT team, Dennis should do his best to survive the hilly stages but the TT field is strong. PTHC after all. Not sure if we can expect an amazing result here.
Thanks for the preview!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 06-12-2025 22:24
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| quadsas |
Posted on 26-03-2023 00:10
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Ruff field, but I believe in +5 and we are popping off for at least 600 points here
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| ember |
Posted on 26-03-2023 08:04
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We are here hopefully for depth points. The TTT is absolutely key to make it happen, as that is our chance to have several riders inside the top 20/top 30 going into the TT on the final day. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 26-03-2023 09:13
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Koretzky not even mentioned in the group of puncheurs, makes me wonder if it was s good decision to bring him at all.
Obviously the TT-ing makes it unrealistic for him to achieve a decent GC, but two stages should suit him.
Farantakis is here to hopefully replicate last season. Since his first two races he has been awful though.
Ioannidis and Kiriakidis again in the mix for depth points, but I don’t think this will be a succesful race for us.
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| Luis Leon Sanchez |
Posted on 26-03-2023 09:40
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Hoping for a minor miracle here from Conci! He’s got the right skill set but in this field it’ll be tough for him to be breaking into the Top 10 which has to be our goal. Solid support for him in the TTT from our core but other teams are much stronger!
Thank you for the preview and looking forward to some good racing 
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| redordead |
Posted on 26-03-2023 10:07
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Ulrich Ulriksen wrote:
Given the quality shown recently by the Cedevita TTT team it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pogacar return home to try and win his home race in the future.
NEVER!!! 
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 26-03-2023 12:17
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Great preview, would love to see Cedevita perform well in the home race.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 26-03-2023 15:02
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Well, I made this my top 5 PTHC goal hoping that Kamna would have an outside shot to make that stick with his skillset. My assessment of his individual abilities compared to the other favorite was actually quite on. Where I went wrong was forgetting about the enormous TTT divide between PT and PCT teams generally. A month ago we were one of the best TTT squads in SA. We bring almost the same squad here, and it's bottom of the barrel. Since we're gonna lose big time there, a top 5 is out of the question.
So, instead, let's hope for some more realistic outcomes. A top 10 by Kamna will be tough too, but possible. If we can also keep Eg in a minor scoring position, and KHJ can pick up some stage points, we can still leave here with a decent haul. But everyone has to click for that to happen.
Either way, we need to take advantage of any areas of relative strength for a shot to reenter the promotion fight, so this is big for us. Thanks for the preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| tastasol |
Posted on 26-03-2023 22:30
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Wurtz have proven previously that he can manage hilly stages when he's going for a good GC, so hopefully the same here. We brought some better climbers also, so fingers crossed for a good race.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 26-03-2023 23:32
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Not much to say for us on day 1. Congrats to Sotd on the win!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 27-03-2023 00:12
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Good start, safe at the front of the pack. Congrats SotD on a dominant win, really awesome to see your sprint train play that so perfectly.
Thanks for the report!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| ember |
Posted on 27-03-2023 06:27
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That was textbook from ELCO. Congratulations, SotD!
For us, I thought the first stage was all about getting through, but Norman decided to test his legs in the sprint. Very surprising, and a 4th place is a good result, especially when we expected nothing. I’m up for more positive surprises as the race progresses!  |
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| SotD |
Posted on 27-03-2023 07:25
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Thanks a lot guys. Indeed that was a textbook example of how it should be done. Koretzky super strong there to form the leadout. Brilliant stuff.
This was basically what we came to do, so extremely pleasant when a plan comes through. Everything that happens from here is just a bonus.
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 27-03-2023 07:55
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Congrats SotD with the victory! We messed up completely 
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 27-03-2023 08:27
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Great stuff from loan-in Ethan Vernon in the break grabbing the Young Riders lead for Kraftwerk.
SP63 Dieteren 8th in the sprint!
Congrats to SotD and thanks for the report Ulrich.
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 27-03-2023 08:55
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I'm happy with our youngsters here. I was hoping for a day in white for Mugisha for a bit, but second in the KoM gives us a couple points, as does El Sabbahi's 7th place in the sprint. I thought with his initial positioning, more could have been possible, but he's not at that level yet and at least he was in the mix. I hope that Uwi or especially Hadi go into the breakaway on stages 3 and 4, as that's our only realistic source of points from here on out. They should get enough of a deficit in the TTT
Congrats SotD, as the others have said well done with the sprint train. Shame that Crabbe messed up, could have been an interesting battle otherwise. And thanks for the nice report UU!
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 27-03-2023 10:28
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Happy with Kalaba getting second place. Congrats SotD!
Not sure why we needed Dennis to catch the break, we have plenty of riders who are not our GC contender...
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 27-03-2023 11:48
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Totally missed the preview, felt weird reading it after reading stage 1 Thanks for the great preview nonetheless. Don't know if we can do much here. I can see Keizer getting dropped on the hilly stages and the team losing quite some time already tomorrow. The individual TT is probably too hilly for guys like Sütterlin/Zmorka.
Nice first stage with a stellar ELCO sprint performance. Congratulations to them and thank you for the fine report
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