Hello and welcome to the final race of the season for PT teams, as well as one of the most prestigeous ones: the Giro di Lombardia. Many riders will hope for individual glory, but for some among them, this is primarily about team success, as the relegation battle is in full swing. A lot is at stake here in Italy!
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The race route hasn't changed for a while now. It features some long climbs in the final third that will likely weed out a lot of the weaker climbers. But in the actual finale, there's only one short ascent. As a consequence, we've often seen sprints from groups of 10+ riders to decide the race. Last year though, Lopez and De Bie attacked from the pack and just barely managed to stay ahead. So, getting away is possible for individual riders or small groups - but it's very difficult.
Favorites
MO
HI
ST
RS
SP
AC
Lopez
79
84
76
74
66
78
De Bie
71
84
77
76
72
75
Lutsenko
73
83
76
73
72
81
Mohoric
71
83
78
72
67
77
Sagan
74
83
78
74
73
76
Yates
70
81
77
70
77
80
Unsurprisingly, the defending champion tops the list. Lopez is not only perhaps the best pure puncheur in the peloton, but also the best climber among these favorites. De Bie came very close to the win with a second place last year, he’ll certainly try to top that in an effort to lead his team to safety in the relegation battle.
Lutsenko already has a podium in this race to his name as well, finishing 2nd two years ago, as well as 4th in 2017 and 8th last year. Mohoric is still waiting for that Top 10 spot, but certainly has the means to do so, as does Sagan, who got into the Top 5 twice but not yet on the podium.
Simon Yates has yet to make any impact on this race, and on pure puncheur skills, he certainly can’t keep up with the previously discussed. He still makes the list because he’s easily the fastest of the favorites and should be seen as the top candidate in any sprint finale. And you can ask three-time winner Simone Ponzi how useful those sprint skills are in this race.
Outsiders
MO
HI
ST
RS
SP
AC
Buchmann
76
81
73
74
65
73
Koretzky
71
81
77
70
71
79
Vakoc
71
81
75
71
71
74
Formolo
79
80
76
76
69
71
Gidich
76
80
78
77
62
75
Waeytens
71
80
72
70
66
73
Gastauer
69
80
75
67
65
73
Müller
65
80
76
71
66
72
Areruya
79
79
76
78
68
76
Benoot
75
79
75
74
69
71
Chernetskiy
71
79
80
69
63
71
Trakhov
69
79
78
74
69
75
It’s a deep field, as you’d expect, with lots of rider eyeing a Top 10 or even Top 5 finish. Koretzky and Vakoc stand out for their fast finish, while Buchmann – who’s tasked with saving his team from relegation with a strong result –, Formolo and Gidich will in contrast hope for as selective a race as possible to make use of their climbing skills. The same is true for Areruya and to a slightly lesser extent Benoot.
Müller on the other hand will struggle on the longer climbs, the race might become too hard for him. Gastauer, Trakhov, Waeytens and Chernetskiy also don’t have the best climbing stats, and, with the exception of Trakhov, not great backup stats either.
Climbers
MO
HI
ST
RS
SP
AC
Kudus
84
77
79
77
63
70
Dombrowski
84
75
80
78
60
75
Pluchkin
83
73
75
75
65
71
Padun
81
77
72
74
60
75
Godoy
81
76
75
76
59
75
Barguil
81
75
77
77
64
75
Berhane
81
75
77
74
62
68
Choi
81
74
77
76
59
68
Preidler
80
78
71
77
50
69
Yates
80
76
79
80
67
76
Roglic
80
76
75
76
69
74
Schelling
80
75
75
76
58
70
In addition to the best puncheurs, there are also some elite climbers present who will try to either make this race their own or support their puncheur teammates. Kudus, Dombrowski and Pluchkin stand out as the top riders, and while both of the former have favorites on their team, Pluchkin and Padun are actually wild card team Popo4Ever’s best options here, as is Yates for Farfetch.
The same might also apply to Godoy, Choi, Preidler and Schelling if their comparatively weaker puncheur captains don’t get over the climbs well.
Barguil, Berhane and Roglic on the other hand should be pretty clearly in domestique roles.
Teams without riders on any of these lists, who will instead have to fully rely on breakaway action to get any sort of result, include Puma - SAP, Generali, Grieg - Maersk and Amayim - Cervelo.
It’s the season finale, so let’s hope for some exciting racing worthy of it. Here’s the full startlist:
Hopefully we can bid farewell to the Pro Tour in somewhat memorable fashion, and no better man to attempt that than the man who has animated so many races to keep us relevant this year, Joseph Areruya. We just need a hard race but not too hard, requiring at least 79 in MO and HI... Areruya and Formolo could battle for 2nd behind MAL
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
Team orders: Yates mark Buchmann at all costs. Competing for the win should be secondary and only achieved if the other teams manage to keep the other favourites together for that all-desired bunch sprint finish.
Hate that it comes down to the last race of the season (again). But given my track record, I shouldn't be surprised. Let's do this!
Too bad Koretzky lost the wheel in the end. He has the sprint to steal a couple of positions in such a final, but 12th is OK.
Decent depth too from a race where we played and active role from start to finish.
The 3 releagtion aspirants made a good final show, and the “right team” lost in the end. Big congrats to Aegon and Zwift for securing another season at PT level. And the win for Yates too obviously!
Heart was absolutely thumping there, great report! Gutted by that finish after such a race by Areruya, really thought he might be on for something special. I really hope one day I can bring him back here for a victory. But what a brilliant final race of our PT adventure by him showing what is now his trademark aggression and animation, and our whole team taking charge of the peloton for a time and helping set pace, I really love to see it.
Congrats Mre, that's an all-timer in terms of historic performances, after a big month Yates comes through with his big breakthrough victory with the team's destiny on the line, absolutely stunning.
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
Thanks for the report and congrats More for both, the win and staying up.
De Bie really carried the team this season, surprisingly strong all year while the rest of the team had far too many of days, in especially Olivier and Groenewegen.
It was a close one but in the end the team did just enough to stay up for another year on highest level.
With rankings decided and already having won this race, im glad that we saw an aggressive Lopez for some fun racing. Pretty sure the goal was a top 10 so theres that too.
Giro di Lombardia 
