Hello, and welcome everyone to beautiful Norway, where we will be treated to an exciting and unpredictable 208km of cycling in Lillestrom, just 18km north of Oslo.
We have defending champ, Ramon Domene here, although riding for a different team this time round. Will his experience at the race help him to repeat? His team manager would obviously love it if he could however, Domene is not the strongest classics rider on his team. Insausti, and Owen both look better on paper, so perhaps Domene will be stuck in a helpers role.
Top 10 Favourites
Surname
FL
HIL
STA
RES
COB
SPR
Nolf
73
65
76
71
79
62
Baugnies
77
71
79
72
79
64
Van Avermaet
74
72
72
69
78
74
Taubel
73
65
69
73
78
61
Van Lerberghe
74
66
75
74
77
75
Thomas
73
58
72
67
77
72
Sinkeldam
74
75
74
70
77
68
Schreurs
72
67
75
75
77
72
Owen
73
69
73
71
77
64
Maes
78
65
76
71
77
60
As a predominantly flat cobbles race, there is one name that stands out to me as favourite, and that is Baugnies. His combination of Flat, Stamina and cobbles will make him tough to beat, and to back that up, he's one of the stronger riders on hills as well. His only shortcome is his sprint finish. Nolf, Taubel, Owen
, and Maes are in a similar vein to Baugnies in regards to their sprint, so a reduced group at the end is the outcome they are likely hoping for rather than a larger peloton.
Despite the flat rating on the profile, the hills could prove decisive here, and if that is the case, Van Avermaet and Sinkeldam could be the favourites from this group of Top 10 favourites. van Avermaet in particular is a strong podium candidate due to his versatility.
Outsiders
Surname
FL
HIL
STA
RES
COB
SPR
Tsatevich
74
77
74
73
75
75
Schoonbroodt
72
75
75
73
74
68
Menten
71
73
73
75
75
67
Marcos
74
73
71
65
74
74
Insausti
70
64
76
73
77
57
Eeckhout
72
61
71
71
77
64
Thomas
73
58
72
67
77
72
Naesen
75
72
77
73
76
77
Okbamariam
73
65
70
73
76
72
Flaksis
70
65
75
70
76
61
Lindeman
73
64
72
69
76
74
Domene
73
57
73
68
76
74
Tsatevich is here as the strongest puncheur and while the hills may not be difficult enough to create major gaps, they may help to keep him the strongest once its time to lift the pace and perhaps he will try a move on one of the hills, rather than on cobbles. Schoonbroodt
looks like another solid contender, but just lacks that finishing speed. With one of the better STA+RES combos, he might be a dark horse for a Top 5 of the outsiders group due to his versatility as well. Marcos and Lindeman
will be hoping for a sprint, likely, but watch out for either of them if they make it into the decisive group. The same can be said for Naesen who has the 2nd best STA behind Baugnies, and great all-round ability as well. In fact Naesen may be considered the strongest of the "outsiders" and really wouldn't be out of place if he won here. With two of his team-mates aforementioned already, he's got good support to do so as well. Thomas has the cobble abilities, but his lack of HILL and RES may harm him here. He will need to try something on the cobbles and create a gap to those with a better
Breakaway Options
Surname
FL
HIL
STA
RES
COB
SPR
FGH
Wallays
72
75
72
71
64
64
82
Bovenhuis
73
71
74
70
74
62
79
Kuznetsov
76
70
75
73
69
72
76
Albert
72
66
71
69
75
60
76
van den Berg
76
64
75
76
75
70
75
Quicibal
78
68
69
71
63
62
75
Sinkeldam
74
75
74
70
77
68
75
Novardianto
76
68
70
78
69
73
74
Hagen
68
75
74
72
65
71
74
Just for fun, I decided to look at who might have a chance if they decide to join the breakaway. Obviously Sinkeldam is more of a favourite, but this shows that if he's allowed to go clear early on, he may never be brought back. Someone like Bovenhuis or Albert would be extremely dangerous due to their cobble rating, but Kuznetsov and Novardianto while being weaker on cobbles are not that bad, and definitely have the skills to do well if they can somehow stay in the lead group past the final cobble section.
Flat cobbles are really where Sinkeldam is at his best, so he figures to be weaker than some of the guys he's beaten in hillier races. Nolf and Baugnies should be the strongest here I think. For us, it will be about Sinkeldam making the front group, and maybe hoping De Vreese has a good day for depth points.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Come on Baugnies, make me proud! Penultimate race for him as for most CT cobblers, but this should suit him way better than Kigali, so I do hope he scores points here. Only way to score decent points in C2 is to finish very high, but with his skillset that should definitely be possible.
Quicibal might have enjoyed reading that he is a breakaway option, but I've made him clear that he will have to work very hard to reel the break back in. If he dares to join the break now, I blame you
Well, that was about as bad as it could possibly go. No result for us at all is disappointing obviously. Glad Sinkeldam at least tried to attack once, but he visibly sat up in the finale, which is obviously always frustrating.
This should have been a great type of race for De Vreese, but this is the 3rd or 4th time this year he has done one of these stupid mid range attacks and not reached the break, only to cook himself. No idea what the game sees in him for that to be so common.
Thanks to valv for a very detailed report! Congrats to Nemo, and nice to see GVA actually doing well too.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Not gonna lie Valverde, you had me at the edge of my seat. I really thought you were foreshadowing and the break was going to survive, but thanks to a strong move by Taubel, an elite trio finally made it back.
Baugnies is not the best sprinter, but I've seen him outsprint way better sprinters in HC as well, which might be because of his stamina and just having more in the tank near the end. No depth points for us, but I can live with that
Thanks for the great report to finish an amazing day for Los Pollos!
Don't know if these results are enough for a top-7/promotion, but they surely can't do any harm
Hmm. 7th by Naesen is not ideal. Without the breakaway, that would have been 5th, and maybe more if the final kilometers were less hectic and a more coordinated bunch sprint. I liked Okbamariam attacking, but Schoonbroodt doing the same just a bit later was completely unnecessary. Still, he managed to finish 15th, which I guess makes it an okay result for us. Congrats Nemo, after a slow start, Baugnies really did assert himself as the top cobbler we expected him to be Not looking forward to Kigali all that much with the shape he's in Thanks for the report, valv!
Incredible ride from Paprstka to get 5th after multiple attacks. Good job by Van Lerberghe to recover from being dropped and get 10th. Bovenhuis contributing as well makes it a good day for us.
[C2] Lillestrom GP 
