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PCM.daily » PCM.daily's Management Game » [Man-Game] Discussion
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2020 Community Preview
Fabianski
Dear fellow managers & interested readers

I feel like I don't have enough knowledge of how all the stats really work together, and of ManGame history, so I don't feel like writing my own preview.

Instead, I'd like to invite you all to participate in a kind of prediction game. Basically, you simply fill in for each team the final position you expect them to take. Below, you can find a template for each of the divisions. You have a table with rank, team name and comments, where the latter is of course optional.

You can try to predict all divisions, or just one or two. The more participants, the more fun it will be analyzing the results Smile

Of course, I'll then post the (anonymous) results, while trying to formulate some words about the top and bottom candidates of each division. I won't set a deadline for participating now, as I don't know yet when the season will kick off. I wanted to try something new/different, so if it works, great, if it doesn't, I won't do it again next year Pfft

Please don't modify the order of the teams in the templates, just fill them in and send me a PM!

PT (22 teams)
Spoiler
RankTeamComments
Aegon - Peroni
Air France - KLM
Aker - MOT
Bennelong - Mitchelton
cycleYorkshire
EA Vesuvio
eBuddy
Evonik - ELKO
Festina - OAKA
Gazelle
Generali
Grieg-Maersk
Indosat Ooredoo
ISA - Hexacta
Isostar - Specialized
King Power
Moser - Sygic
Rakuten Pro Cycling
Team Puma - SAP
Team Tinkoff - La Datcha
Team UBS
Volvo acc. by Spotify


PCT (26 teams)
Spoiler
RankTeamComments
Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling
Andorra Cycling Project
Aramco DP
Azteca - NBCSN
Bakkafrost
Berg Cycles
Campari Asahi Procycling
Desigual
DK - SVA Zalgiris
Duolingo
Fablok - Chocolate Jacques
Farfetch Pro Cycling
GCN Racing
Kraftwerk Man Machine
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Mapei
Minions
MOL
Nordstrom - CA Technologies
Podium Ambition
Polar
Repsol - Netflix
Swisslion Cycling Team
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
Valio - Viking Genetics
Xero Racing


CT (20 teams)
Spoiler
RankTeamComments
BNZ Cycling Team
Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Carrefour - ESPN
Centovalli - Fiat
Eddie Stobart
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
Glanbia Foods Cycling Project
Guave's Sunlight Cycling
Los Pollos Hermanos
McCormick Pro Cycling
Nordica - Enel
Philips
Project: Africa
Sauber Petronas Racing
Sotto il sole di riccione
Strava
Team Europcar
Trans cycling team
Tryg - Ritter Sport

 
Nemolito
I really like the initiative and will send you my predictions soon!
 
Fabianski
Just bumping this one. I've received one prediction for CT and PCT each, and even if I count the "official" previews in, it wouldn't be as representative as I'd like it to be.
So if you've got some spare time, just fill in your predictions for one or several divisions Smile
 
Ollfardh
Feel free to use my PCT preview! Probably not going to make another.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
baseballlover312
I'd love to do this, but I just don't think I have time atm. Maybe this weekend.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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i.imgur.com/4osUjkI.png
 
http://www.youtube.com/user/baseballlover312
Fabianski
I'll put up the preview by the end of the week - although we're already going to be in the middle of TdU by then, I guess it's still early enough. Want to finish some reports first and add my own predictions to it, so feel free to submit your ranking predictions until Friday.

Other than the predictions by PM, I'll take into account all published previews, plus some posted only on Skype (with their author's permission). If you feel like your preview shouldn't be used for this (too random, or other reasons), tell me and I'll exclude it Smile
 
Fabianski
The season has kicked off, the first races are done - so it's now or never to post some more previews!

As announced before, the "Community Preview" is a collection of all the predictions posted on the forum (unfortunately, Leif's didn't get to the end yet - would surely have been very interesting, too!), predictions submitted by PM and some submitted only on Skype.

Overall rankings are established in two different ways:
- By average rank prediction, meaning "outliers" have some influence - the fewer contributions there are, the heavier they will weigh!
- By median rank prediction, i.e. the "middle" value of all predictions is taken into account. As there is an even number of predictions for PCT and CT, there are two "middle values", hence the average of both is taken.
- If several teams have the same average or median value, the other value is taken as a tie-breaker.

Without further ado, let's start with the 2020 PT Community Prediction:

Number of predictions taken into account: 7

Prediction by average rank
RankTeamAverage prediction
1pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/evo.png Evonik - ELKO2.14
2pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mos.png Moser - Sygic4.86
3pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/iso.png Isostar - Specialized4.86
4pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ebd.png eBuddy6.29
5pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gzl.png Gazelle6.86
6pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fes.png Festina - OAKA6.86
7pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/pum.png Team Puma - SAP7.00
8pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png Generali7.43
9pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bnm.png Bennelong - Mitchelton10.14
10pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/akm.png Aker - MOT12.00
11pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eav.png EA Vesuvio12.00
12pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/afk.png Air France - KLM12.71
13pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tti.png Team Tinkoff - La Datcha13.14
14pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vlv.png Volvo acc. by Spotify13.29
15pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ubs.png Team UBS13.86
16pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kng.png King Power14.43
17pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/rak.png Rakuten Pro Cycling14.57
18pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/grm.png Grieg-Maersk15.14
19pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/aeg.png Aegon - Peroni17.29
20pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/isa.png ISA - Hexacta17.86
21pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ino.png Indosat Ooredoo19.43
22pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/yor.png cycleYorkshire20.14


Prediction by median rank
RankTeamMedian prediction
1pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/evo.png Evonik - ELKO2
2pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mos.png Moser - Sygic3
3pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/iso.png Isostar - Specialized4
4pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ebd.png eBuddy5
5pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gzl.png Gazelle5
6pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png Generali5
7pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fes.png Festina - OAKA6
8pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/pum.png Team Puma - SAP7
9pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bnm.png Bennelong - Mitchelton10
10pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/akm.png Aker - MOT12
11pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eav.png EA Vesuvio13
12pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/afk.png Air France - KLM14
13pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tti.png Team Tinkoff - La Datcha14
14pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ubs.png Team UBS14
15pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vlv.png Volvo acc. by Spotify15
16pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/grm.png Grieg-Maersk15
17pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kng.png King Power16
18pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/rak.png Rakuten Pro Cycling17
19pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/aeg.png Aegon - Peroni18
20pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/isa.png ISA - Hexacta19
21pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/yor.png cycleYorkshire20
22pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ino.png Indosat Ooredoo21



Both methods see the exact same Top 5 teams - and even in exactly the same order. However, while the range of predictions is very small for pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/evo.png Evonik - ELKO (1st to 4th) and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/iso.png Isostar - Specialized (2nd to 7th),
it is above 10 for the others - meaning that most predictions saw them really high up, with just one or two outliers.
The Top 8 teams are the same in both tables, too, as the majority seems to see a certain gap to pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bnm.png Bennelong - Mitchelton in 9th and then again to pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/akm.png Aker - MOT in 10th place.

At the bottom, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/yor.png cycleYorkshire really seem to be doomed, as all predictions had them on the last 6 spots, whereas pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ino.png Indosat Ooredoo - even though having the worst median value - could reach safety according to some. But again, the bottom 4 teams are the same with both calculation methods, with just the red lantern swapped.

Overall, the team with the biggest prediction range are pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fes.png Festina - OAKA, where the numbers vary from 1st to 19th, whereas the one team where we have the highest agreement on their final ranking region are pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/evo.png Evonik - ELKO, with predictions from 1st to 4th.


PCT and CT predictions will come later today - stay tuned and discuss Smile
 
roturn
It might happen but hopefully my leaders can carry the team enough plus lots of freedom in many races for Velits/Valls to avoid relegation.
In especially as KoM jerseys can't really be predicted but hopefully being attacked by those two.
 
Fabianski
Let's move on to PCT, where we have by far the most predictions available - will this also mean that the community prediction for this division is the most accurate? Well, experience shows that it's probably the most difficult to predict as well, so we'll see.

Let's jump straigt into the numbers for the 2020 PCT Community Prediction:

Number of predictions taken into account: 14

Prediction by average rank
RankTeamAverage prediction
1pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/map.png Mapei2.14
2pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fpc.png Farfetch Pro Cycling4.50
3pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/des.png Desigual5.71
4pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/rpn.png Repsol - Netflix6.57
5pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mol.png MOL6.57
6pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/p4e.png Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff7.07
7pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/pol.png Polar8.50
8pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/lpu.png Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam9.86
9pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bgc.png Berg Cycles10.50
10pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/duo.png Duolingo10.93
11pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/xr0.png Xero Racing11.50
12pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/t3a.png Podium Ambition13.29
13pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bak.png Bakkafrost13.64
14pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/zal.png DK - SVA Zalgiris14.14
15pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/min.png Minions14.29
16pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fcj.png Fablok - Chocolate Jacques15.07
17pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/sct.png Swisslion Cycling Team15.14
18pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kmm.png Kraftwerk Man Machine15.71
19pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vvg.png Valio - Viking Genetics18.14
20pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling18.36
21pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gcn.png GCN Racing19.29
22pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/adp.png Aramco DP19.43
23pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nca.png Nordstrom - CA Technologies19.93
24pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cap.png Campari Asahi Procycling23.21
25pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN23.36
26pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Andorra Cycling Project24.14



Prediction by median rank
RankTeamMedian prediction
1pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/map.png Mapei1
2pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fpc.png Farfetch Pro Cycling3
3pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/rpn.png Repsol - Netflix4
4pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/p4e.png Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff5
5pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/des.png Desigual5.5
6pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mol.png MOL6.5
7pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/pol.png Polar8
8pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/lpu.png Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam9
9pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bgc.png Berg Cycles9
10pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/duo.png Duolingo10
11pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/xr0.png Xero Racing10.5
12pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bak.png Bakkafrost13
13pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/sct.png Swisslion Cycling Team13.5
14pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/min.png Minions14
15pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/t3a.png Podium Ambition14.5
16pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/zal.png DK - SVA Zalgiris15
17pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fcj.png Fablok - Chocolate Jacques17
18pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kmm.png Kraftwerk Man Machine18
19pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling18
20pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vvg.png Valio - Viking Genetics18.5
21pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gcn.png GCN Racing19.5
22pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/adp.png Aramco DP20
23pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nca.png Nordstrom - CA Technologies21.5
24pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN24
25pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cap.png Campari Asahi Procycling24.5
26pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Andorra Cycling Project26




After having read all the previews, it's no surprise at all that pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/map.png Mapei easily comes out on top of both tables. Actually, with a median value of 1, this means that more than half of the predictions saw them on top - meaning we have an almost uncontested favorite for promotion.
Furthermore, the community sees pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fpc.png Farfetch Pro Cycling in 2nd place, and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/rpn.png Repsol - Netflix as well as pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/des.png Desigual promote with both calculation methods as well - with pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/p4e.png Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mol.png MOL battling it out for the final promotion spot.
By the way, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/map.png Mapei and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/des.png Desigual can be the most confident in those tables, as their predictions vary the least (1st to 8th vs 2nd to 10th).

At the bottom of the table, we have three teams that seem to be doomed - especially pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Andorra Cycling Project, being dead last in more than half of the previews. But pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cap.png Campari Asahi Procycling aren't given a lot of credit, either, both being on a non-relegation spot in just two of the previews each.
And while pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nca.png Nordstrom - CA Technologies and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/adp.png Aramco DP relegate according to both lists as well, they are at least rather close to especially pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gcn.png GCN Racing, but pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vvg.png Valio - Viking Genetics and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling don't seem to be very far away, either. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kmm.png Kraftwerk Man Machine have a clear gap in the average list - but quite some part of this is due to the one preview where they end uf winning the division.

Of the newly promoted teams, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/zal.png DK - SVA Zalgiris are given most credit, and they should stay safe from relegation, while the others all seem to be in danger or even doomed. Back-to-back promotions however seem to be excluded this year - it doesn't happen in any of the prediction. Back-to-back relegation doesn't seem to be very probable, either - although pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fcj.png Fablok - Chocolate Jacques and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/t3a.png Podium Ambition end up doing so in one prediction each.

When speaking of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/t3a.png Podium Ambition - they have the second highest "range of inconfidence", with their predictions reaching from 3rd to 25th - which is as much as pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/xr0.png Xero Racing (4th to 26th). This is only "topped" by pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kmm.png Kraftwerk Man Machine (1st to 25th), who can basically land anywhere and someone will be right about them Pfft


Unlike for PT, we got some comments on the PCT submissions - and of course we need to share them here! Grin

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling
Leaders are unproven but definitely quality

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Andorra Cycling Project
Vanspeybrouck? But... why?

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/adp.png Aramco DP
Short-term solutions might keep the long-term bright

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN
The definition of insanity...

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bak.png Bakkafrost
Higher if the cool guys are cool prediction: 11th

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bgc.png Berg Cycles
Aular is only level 3? Come on...

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cap.png Campari Asahi Procycling
Sponsor products might come in handy

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/des.png Desigual
Nobody celebrates Pluchkin's birthday like Tenorio

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/zal.png DK - SVA Zalgiris
Just putting them here so Adastra wins Precition: 15th / Adastra 14th

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/duo.png Duolingo
Oh no, Gesink's in the PCT?

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fcj.png Fablok - Chocolate Jacques
The first ever double relegation? Prediction: 22nd

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fpc.png Farfetch Pro Cycling
In this house we praise RES

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gcn.png GCN Racing
Dowsett? This can't end well...

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kmm.png Kraftwerk Man Machine
Depth is great, but a little excessive

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/lpu.png Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
I'd be happy to pay his wages

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/map.png Mapei
Oh wow what a unique opinion Prediction: 1st

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/min.png Minions
So it's the same, but Uran's worse?

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mol.png MOL
MOL is good? Does not compute

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nca.png Nordstrom - CA Technologies
Less Dowsett Less Problems... still problems though

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/t3a.png Podium Ambition
Can't believe they sold Novardianto

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/pol.png Polar
Wait, no Degenkolb?

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/rpn.png Repsol - Netflix
Cheats

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/sct.png Swisslion Cycling Team
I hope Beltran has a good masseuse

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/p4e.png Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
Padun PT before it's too late, please!

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vvg.png Valio - Viking Genetics
Not mooving very far either way Prediction: 12th

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/xr0.png Xero Racing
Farfetch Reserves // Meurisse cost what?! // "Doomed" Prediction: 13th


So there's pretty much unanimity about first and last, and some agreement about promoting and relegating teams - but anything is possible, as always in this division Grin
 
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Fabianski
Let's go down another level, as we round off the community preview with a look into the managers' CT rankings. We basically have three categories of teams: those relegating from PCT, the returning CT teams, and the brand-new outfits. Will that show in the predictions as well?

Here are the 2020 CT Community Predictions:

Number of predictions taken into account: 8

Prediction by Average rank
RankTeamAverage prediction
1pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/car.png Carrefour - ESPN1.88
2pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/phi.png Philips2.13
3pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cdb.png Carlsberg - Danske Bank3.25
4pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cen.png Centovalli - Fiat5.38
5pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nel.png Nordica - Enel8.00
6pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/trg.png Tryg - Ritter Sport8.38
7pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/spr.png Sauber Petronas Racing8.38
8pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eur.png Team Europcar8.50
9pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bnz.png BNZ Cycling Team9.25
10pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gsc.png Guave's Sunlight Cycling10.38
11pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/sva.png Strava10.63
12pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/afr.png Project: Africa11.50
13pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bsb.png Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes11.75
14pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tst.png Trans Cycling Team12.75
15pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/lph.png Los Pollos Hermanos13.38
16pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/esc.png Eddie Stobart15.13
17pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gla.png Glanbia Foods Cycling Project16.38
18pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ssr.png Sotto il sole di Riccione16.75
19pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gct.png Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team17.00
20pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mck.png McCormick Pro Cycling19.25



Prediction by Median rank
RankTeamMedian prediction
1pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/phi.png Philips1.5
2pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/car.png Carrefour - ESPN2
3pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cdb.png Carlsberg - Danske Bank3
4pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cen.png Centovalli - Fiat5
5pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/trg.png Tryg - Ritter Sport7
6pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nel.png Nordica - Enel8
7pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/spr.png Sauber Petronas Racing8.5
8pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bnz.png BNZ Cycling Team9.5
9pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/sva.png Strava9.5
10pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eur.png Team Europcar10
11pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/afr.png Project: Africa10.5
12pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gsc.png Guave's Sunlight Cycling11.5
13pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bsb.png Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes12
14pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tst.png Trans Cycling Team12
15pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/lph.png Los Pollos Hermanos12
16pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gla.png Glanbia Foods Cycling Project16
17pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/esc.png Eddie Stobart16.5
18pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ssr.png Sotto il sole di Riccione17
19pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gct.png Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team18
20pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mck.png McCormick Pro Cycling20



According to the available numbers, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/phi.png Philips and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/car.png Carrefour - ESPN will likely fight it out for 1st and 2nd, with four previews seeing the Dutch outfit on top, and three of them favoring the French. One win vote goes to pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cdb.png Carlsberg - Danske Bank.
These three teams are uncontested in terms of promotion, with only the Danes missing out in one single prediction. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cen.png Centovalli - Fiat seem to be a bit in no-man's land, but should definitely be in contention, too.
When it comes down to the final (direct) promotion spot, however, the Average-based table sees all of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nel.png Nordica - Enel, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/trg.png Tryg - Ritter Sport, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/spr.png Sauber Petronas Racing and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eur.png Team Europcar very close together, with pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bnz.png BNZ Cycling Team not very far away, either.
The Median-based table has the same teams in 5th to 7th, with just the promoting teams swapped. But then, we see pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eur.png Team Europcar drop from 8th to 10th - a 2nd and 3rd place prediction definitely helped their average, but 4 previews having them just outside the Top 10, they lose some spots. In both calculation methods, they are the lowest ranked relegated team - up to them to prove everyone wrong!

In terms of red lantern, the pretty much unanimous opinion is that pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mck.png McCormick Pro Cycling will finish dead last. 7 out of 8 previews see them at the bottom, with pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/esc.png Eddie Stobart taking that not very glorious spot in the remaining preview.

Among the new teams, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nel.png Nordica - Enel are clearly seen as the best outfit, as they should even have a shot at promotion according to the community! They promote in 3/8 of the predictions, with only pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gsc.png Guave's Sunlight Cycling running away with promotion in one preview.


As for PCT, we have a few comments on the CT teams - let's take a look at them!


pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bnz.png BNZ Cycling Team
Schultz could be tremendous or terrible at that wage. Good leaders, but all are a bit limited in some way.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bsb.png Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes
Naesen's great, but not sure how useful on a CT calendar. Options elsewhere, but none stand out.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cdb.png Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Leader for every terrain, but the standout guy is a sprinter. Also little depth. Good but not as good as the top 2. Prediction: 3rd

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/car.png Carrefour - ESPN
Way too many sprinters but still top quality everywhere. TTT squad will help for GC and great depth.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cen.png Centovalli - Fiat
Moscon + Pernsteiner will be great for PCM 18 hills. Great sprinters too, but held back a little by stage races and cobbles.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/esc.png Eddie Stobart
A great puncheur squad, but still way too much aging filler taking up cap space.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gct.png Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
The sale of Bystrom leaves a terrific puncheur squad without a true top gun, and they never made up for it.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gla.png Glanbia Foods Cycling Project
They should win most TTT's and place in TT GC races, plus Bennett won't be terrible. But lacking too much.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gsc.png Guave's Sunlight Cycling
Should compete everywhere, but almost always for minor placings.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/lph.png Los Pollos Hermanos
Baugnies alone will score a lot, beyond that his season depends entirely on Marquez.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mck.png McCormick Pro Cycling
Tanking for McNulty. It'll pay off long term, but this year won't be very exciting.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nel.png Nordica - Enel
Ratiy will be great and has plenty of support. Two scoring sprinters and decent leaders elsewhere.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/phi.png Philips
Kelderman is huge obviously, Keinath will score big too. Dumoulin is underrated, and cobbles and sprints are likewise covered.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/afr.png Project: Africa
Pinot remains top tier, but the TTT squad may be useless if they drop him. Not much to fall back on.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/spr.png Sauber Petronas Racing
Best stage race team in the division, but other disciplines have been neglected.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ssr.png Sotto il sole di Riccione
Afraid Dall'Oste will actually be worse as a CT leader. Zaini will have to perform.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/sva.png Strava
GVA will score, but elsewhere I'm not convinced a puncheur train will be productive in PCM 18, even with their sprint ability.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eur.png Team Europcar
Great depth on long or short inclines, but not behind a standout leader. Missing other scorers.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tst.png Trans Cycling Team
Not bad and plenty of talents, but despite decent coverage, top points will be hard to come by.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/trg.png Tryg - Ritter Sport
Lunke + Cort is a great tandem, but maybe a little redundant. Hoelgaard will be great again and other terrains are covered well.


And that's it! Thanks a lot for all of you who participated in this preview, either by doing a full division preview on your own (all of which were taken into account), or by participating by PM. Let's see how well the "common" opinion matches the actual outcomes - and we'll try to track as well who did the best prediction!
 
baseballlover312
Thanks for putting these together! I'm happy with where we stand. Promotion is the goal and most seem to think we can do it. We'll just have to see!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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Shonak
Thanks for the previews, very cool to see another one for CT. Not sure why several puncheurs shouldnt work in pcm18 but lets see. A Top 10 would be great.
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Guave
Very nice reviews, Fabianski, and well done for coming up with this cool concept Smile
 
cunego59
12 to 13 is around where I see our team, good to have that confirmed. Thank you for putting this together Smile
 
aidanvn13
Very nice preview. The predictions here seem quite consistent with SN's so that's reassuring. Would be great if we could convert that 11th into a top 10. All depends on Pinot!
Manager of
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/afr.png Project: Africa pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/afr.png
 
DubbelDekker
Nice job Fabianski
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Nemolito
I guess 15th is a bit more realistic than the 7th place I got in the mathematical preview which was largely due to no backup stats being taken into account. With some luck I could maybe compete for a top-10, so that'll be my goal Smile
 
Ulrich Ulriksen
Great stuff, good to see the wisdom of the crowed, Will have to test the performance at the end of the season to see if the consensus preview outperforms the individual ones.


One of your previews I have to questions because if 7 out of 8 had us last and our average is 19.25 I think that means somebody put us 14th. They were clearly in a post-election fog.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling
 
AbhishekLFC
Thanks for doing this Fabianski Smile Great stuff!

I think it'll be a really close race between Carlsberg, Carrefour and ourselves, with me personally putting the order as I mentioned here. A lot depends on how dominant Kelderman can actually be and how well I've planned the others.

Looking forward to a great season!
 
Fabianski
I thought that after three months - and right before the GT season which will cause a lot of movement anyway - it's time to take a look at the current standings vs. predictions. For this, I compare the latest rankings with the median prediction, which is rather immune to extreme outliers. Let's start with the PT:

PT Rankings #3 vs. Median Prediction

TeamCurrent rankPredicted rankDifference
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/evo.png Evonik - ELKO110
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fes.png Festina - OAKA27-5
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mos.png Moser - Sygic32+1
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ebd.png eBuddy440
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/isa.png ISA - Hexacta520-15
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/iso.png Isostar - Specialized63+3
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eav.png EA Vesuvio711-4
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/pum.png Team Puma - SAP880
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/grm.png Grieg-Maersk916-7
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/akm.png Aker - MOT10100
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tti.png Team Tinkoff - La Datcha1113-2
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bnm.png Bennelong - Mitchelton129+3
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/afk.png Air France - KLM1312+1
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ubs.png Team UBS14140
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/rak.png Rakuten Pro Cycling1518-3
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kng.png King Power1617-1
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png Generali176+11
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gzl.png Gazelle185+13
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/aeg.png Aegon - Peroni19190
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vlv.png Volvo acc. by Spotify2015+5
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/yor.png cycleYorkshire21210
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ino.png Indosat Ooredoo22220


We can see that the median prediction got the current place right for 8 out of 22 teams, which is quite a lot! The average deviation is 3.37 places, but only four teams are outside the +/- 5 places margin:

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/isa.png ISA - Hexacta were obviously hugely underestimated, as they are 15 spots ahead of the predicted place, which is most of any PT team. If we only look at PpRD, they are even 3rd, which is a huge PT debut!

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/grm.png Grieg-Maersk are surely benefitting a bit from the cobbled races, and are likely to be found further down after the GTs - but who knows...

On the other side, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png Generali and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gzl.png Gazelle, predicted 6th and 5th, definitely didn't have the start they imagined. But with Spilak and Madrazo likely doing a GT and probably taking quite some points from the next few months, they might go exactly in the other direction than Grieg. But surely, they had hoped for a better start to the season, and surely didn't imagine being in the relegation fight by now.

All other teams were predicted +/- 5 spots from where they currently are - including the leaders from pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/evo.png Evonik - ELKO and the two teams at the bottom of the table, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/yor.png cycleYorkshire and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ino.png Indosat Ooredoo.

Let's see how this evolves until the next update, which is likely to be posted by the end of June.



Let's move on to PCT:
PCT Rankings #2 vs. Median Prediction

TeamCurrent rankPredicted rankDifference
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fpc.png Farfetch Pro Cycling12-1
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/rpn.png Repsol - Netflix23-1
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/map.png Mapei31+2
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/p4e.png Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff440
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vvg.png Valio - Viking Genetics520-15
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bak.png Bakkafrost612-6
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/lpu.png Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam78-1
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/duo.png Duolingo810-2
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Andorra Cycling Project926-17
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/pol.png Polar107+3
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bgc.png Berg Cycles119+2
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/min.png Minions1214-2
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/t3a.png Podium Ambition1315-2
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/xr0.png Xero Racing1411+3
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/des.png Desigual155+10
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gcn.png GCN Racing1621-5
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/sct.png Swisslion Cycling Team1713+4
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mol.png MOL186+12
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cap.png Campari Asahi Procycling1925-6
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/zal.png DK - SVA Zalgiris2016+4
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/adp.png Aramco DP2122-1
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/anh.png Adastra N Hell Energy Cycling2219+3
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/fcj.png Fablok - Chocolate Jacques2317+6
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/azt.png Azteca - NBCSN24240
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/kmm.png Kraftwerk Man Machine2518+7
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nca.png Nordstrom - CA Technologies2623+3


With more teams, it's explicable that the average deviation is higher than in PT, namely 4.5, which is about one place more. However, we can again see that mot teams were predicted within a +/5- places margin - especially the Top 4 correspond with the expectations. We do have a few remarkable outliers, though:

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/vvg.png Valio - Viking Genetics surprisingly got almost half their points from sprinter Manninen, who currently is 3rd in the individual standings, which is obviously a huge performance.

The situation is even clearer in the case of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/and.png Andorra Cycling Project, where Summerhill is dominating the cobbles no matter the race category. It will have to be seen if they can avoid dropping too much once the cobbles season is over.

Going the other way round so far are pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/des.png Desigual, which can at least partly be explained by the underperformance of their leader Tenorio. They're still sitting pretty safe in the middle of the table - but that's by far not enough for a promotion contender.

The same holds for pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mol.png MOL, whose best scorer surprisingly is Waeytens - with their presumed leader Cattaneo clearly underperforming so far.

Finally, at the bottom of the table, we mostly have the teams that were expected to be there, or at least to be involved in the relegation fight.



And last but not least, the CT:
CT Rankings #2 vs. Median Prediction

TeamCurrent rankPredicted rankDifference
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cen.png Centovalli - Fiat14-3
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/phi.png Philips21+1
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cdb.png Carlsberg - Danske Bank330
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/car.png Carrefour - ESPN42+2
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/lph.png Los Pollos Hermanos515-10
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/trg.png Tryg - Ritter Sport65+1
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bsb.png Bralirwa - Stevens Bikes713-6
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gct.png Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team819-11
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gsc.png Guave's Sunlight Cycling912-3
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/afr.png Project: Africa1011-1
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/bnz.png BNZ Cycling Team118+3
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/eur.png Team Europcar1210+2
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mck.png McCormick Pro Cycling1320-7
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/sva.png Strava149+5
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/ssr.png Sotto il sole di Riccione1518-3
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/esc.png Eddie Stobart1617-1
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nel.png Nordica - Enel176+11
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/spr.png Sauber Petronas Racing187+11
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/tst.png Trans Cycling Team1914+5
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gla.png Glanbia Foods Cycling Project2016+4


As in PCT, we have two teams performing a lot better than expected - and two teams doing exactly the other way round. The average deviation is the same with 4.5, meaning it's probably the worst of the three prediction so far.

Again as in PCT, the Top 4, were predicted correctly, with only the order slightly changing, and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/trg.png Tryg - Ritter Sport in 6th place can be considered a good guess as well.

The positive surprises so far definitely are pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/lph.png Los Pollos Hermanos and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gct.png Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team. Whereas the further could have been expected to be there due to 400k cobbles hero Baugnies, the latter have scored quite a lot of surprising points by flat beast Katrasnik. The cobbles will be over some time, but flat stages will always be there - let's see if these teams can stay up there!

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/nel.png Nordica - Enel were predicted to be a promotion contender, and now are towards the bottom of the table. This was always possible, many of the team's riders being rather one-dimensional.

It's however a much bigger surprise to see pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/spr.png Sauber Petronas Racing down there as well. However, they have done the least race days of any team so far, with their leader Ranaweera having competed only in Venezuela. They definitely are expected to gain some spots, which their PpRD ratio indicates. But every point first has to be won...

On a positive note, let's mention pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/mck.png McCormick Pro Cycling as well, who were predicted to finish dead last, but are doing much better so far. The double K, Keough and Kuss, are working well so far for them - they even have more stage wins than the leaders from pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/cen.png Centovalli - Fiat Wink


That's it for the moment. As said before, there will likely be another post pre-TdF, and maybe one just before the closing month.
 
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