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PCM.daily » PCM.daily's Management Game » [Man-Game] General
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Tour of Northern Europe Discussion
Marcovdw
Tour of Northern Europe


History


YearWinnerTeam
2018Sam BewleyMoser - Sygic
2017Lars BoomAegon - Lavazza
2016Roger KlugePokerstars.com
2015Fabian CancellaraRed Bull - Huawei
2014Fabian CancellaraSimply Red Bull
2013Jerome CoppelMilka - AVG
2012Filippo PozzatoFestina - Conec
2011Fabian CancellaraCarmeuse Cyclisme
2010Vladimir GusevPhilips - Hummel


The tenth anniversary edition of the ProTour's prime trans-national event: Tour of Northern Europe. The race is registered in Norway but mainly takes place in Belgium and France, with a stage in Sweden as well. Fabian Cancellara is the record holder with his three victories which cannot be emulated in this edition. Bewley and Boom are the only former winners lining up this year, both one-time winners of the two most recent editions respectively. The race is known for its many different components, only climbing skill is not required. We have a mix of flat and hilly stages, laid with cobblestones, and both individual and team time trials, all in a span of eight days. If this race doesn't excite you, then frankly nothing will.

Profiles

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/profiles/pt_ton.jpg


The race opens with a team time trial but not a regular one, as it takes place on the Haaghoek cobblestone section. The race then moves to France for a flat and a hilly stage, where the puncheurs will want to gain as much time as possible before stage four. That fourth stage is a cobblestone stage, including many legendary sections from Paris - Roubaix. The time trialists come back in action for stage five, this time individually. The sixth stage is another flat stage before the race flies to Sweden for the final hilly stage, before heading back to Belgium for a final flat stage

Startlist

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Races/PT/ToNE/startlist.jpg


Team time trialAVGTTCOBTeam time trialAVGTTCOB
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Generali767775pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Isostar716973
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Grieg757277pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fab.png Fablok717269
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Tinkoff747277pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png SPAR716774
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png T-Mobile747375pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Aker707071
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/and.png Andorra736779pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ebd.png eBuddy706773
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/isa.png ISA737174pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Farfetch706674
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Ambition726877pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/rpn.png Repsol706772
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Aegon727372pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Air France696870
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Gazelle727272pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Festina696573
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Moser727075pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Indosat696771
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/pum.png Puma727371pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Vesuvio676965
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Evonik726876pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Bennelong667162


A lot of different contenders for the stages. Let's start with the team time trial, where a mix of cobblestone quality and pure time trial experience is needed. This statistical analysis takes 50% of the best five riders in TT and COB respectively. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Generali brings the best team time trial squad by far had the route been asphalted, but also has a very decent cobblestone squad to go with it, including riders capable of handling both. If I had to pick a favorite for the opening stage, watch the Italians.

In terms of cobblestone quality, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/and.png Andorra Cycling Project has the best squad followed by pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Grieg - Maersk, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Team Tinkoff and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Podium Ambition. Of these teams, Tinkoff and Grieg have a decent time trial outlet while Andorra and Podium Ambition are amongst the worst. The former two should finish higher than the latter two under normal circumstances, but it probably won't be a normal team time trial.

Other teams with a decent combination of skills are pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png T-Mobile, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/isa.png ISA - Hexacta, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Aegon - Lavazza, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Gazelle and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/pum.png Team Puma - SAP.

Time trialTTHLCOBTime trialTTHLCOB
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Fiedler836860pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Kung777372
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Yatsevich806864pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Ghyselinck776861
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Cataford797067pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Turek776858
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Malori796858pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Hansen776556
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Viviani796660pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png O'Shea776451
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Oliveira787372pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Predatsch775562


The time trialists only have one attempt on stage five. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Fiedler is the main favorite for the stage, but a high GC position is very unlikely with his skills in the other fields being underwhelming.

His closest competitor for the stage will be the pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Yatsevich. Other contenders for the podium are pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Malori, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Cataford and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Viviani.

If anyone wants to use the TT to get in a decent position, Generali has the duo of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Oliveira and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Kung which are decent enough on the hills and cobbles to target the general classfication. They need to use the time trial to get in that good position while limiting their loss on the other terrains.

CobblesCOBHLTTCobblesCOBHLTT
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/and.png Summerhill837359pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/rpn.png Vanmarcke806662
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Bewley837171pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Sulimov797065
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Senechal826765pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Zubov796366
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Blythe826668pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/and.png Machado796358
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Kamyshev826565pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ebd.png Gerts787867
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/and.png Bakari825554pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png David787565
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Trentin817461pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Polanc787370
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Wisniowski817174pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Kristoff786868
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Altur817063pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Ringheim786766
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Teunissen816664pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Puccio786661
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Theuns807465pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ebd.png Lampaert786656
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Van Avermaet807459pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/isa.png Bush786362
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Daniel806956pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Thomas785962


The cobblestone specialists only have one stage to battle for the stage victory, but it is perhaps the one where most time can be gained. All these riders could go on for a decent general classification provided they can handle a bit of hills and riding against the clock. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Bewley is the best cobblestone rider of recent years. He laid the groundwork for his overall victory on the cobblestone stage last year.

His closest competitor for the stage win will be pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/and.png Summerhill, riding for wildcard Andorra. His time trial skill might make a GC charge more difficult, but he can match Bewley on the cobbles. If there is a rider excelling on the cobbles with the stats on the other terrains to challenge for the GC, it is pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Wisniowski. He is not much below Summerhill in the hills, and tied with Bewley, but it is his time trial quality which sets him apart from the rest of this section. He has podium experience from the previous edition.

The list of stage favorites goes on beyond the aforementioned riders. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Senechal, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Blythe and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Kamyshev could be a threat if they play their cards right. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Trentin, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Altur and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Teunissen should not be underestimated. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Theuns and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Kristoff are the best sprinters if a larger group reaches the finish line, though they have to pass Bewley then as well.

PuncheursHLCOBTTPuncheursHLCOBTT
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png De Bie836872pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Furdi776565
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Gastauer825966pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Lietaer766759
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png McCarthy816958pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Vanendert766269
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Chernetskiy795266pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Hofland766266
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ebd.png Gerts787867pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Fritsch766165
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fab.png Benoot777562pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Lane765663
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Zardini776867pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Rabottini765465


The puncheurs have two chances for stage wins: the third and seventh stage. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png De Bie is the best puncheur on the startlist, and is not too bad on the time trial, but the cobblestones are where he will get in trouble.

His two closest competitors are pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Gastauer and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png McCarthy. The trio is a clear step above anyone else on the startlist, so they should use this to their advantage and gain as much time as possible on these two stages.

A special mention for pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ebd.png Gerts and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fab.png Benoot, who are known to handle cobblestones well. Especially Gerts might become a dark horse for the GC, he finished fourth in the last two years. Can he finally set foot on the podium?

SprintersSPACCCOBSprintersSPACCCOB
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Bewley838383pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Van der Sanden787967
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Kristoff837978pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Krasnov787752
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Van Heerden817270pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/afk.png Clarke787656
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Keukeleire807971pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png Hsu777772
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Petit807872pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Reimer778053
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Lander797773pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Dakteris777772
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Soupe797764pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Theuns777680
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/isa.png Harrison788173pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Edmondson777574


The sprinters have the most chances out of any specialty, three to be precise. However, it of course depends on the breakaway being caught in order for the sprinters to duke it out in the final kilometer. Once again, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Bewley is the man to beat, though he might save his resources in the flat stages for his GC ambition.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Kristoff might be just as fast at top speed, but needs longer to get there. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Van Heerden might be the third-best sprinter but he needs even longer than Kristoff.

The other contenders are pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Keukeleire, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Petit, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Lander, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/isa.png Harrison and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Van der Sanden. They also have decent helpers for a leadout.

FavoritesHLCOBTTOutsidersHLCOBTT
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Wisniowski718174pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fab.png Kaczmarek746973
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Bewley718371pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Potts747666
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png De Bie836872pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Bibby756576
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ebd.png Gerts787867pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Cataford706779
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Oliveira737278pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Trentin748161
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Kung737277pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/and.png Summerhill738359
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Boom737276pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Gaday747665
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Polanc737870pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/isa.png Arissol717272
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/pum.png Cavagna747175pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/and.png Dahl-Olsen687472
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Kruijswijk727473pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fab.png Benoot777562
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gen.png Theuns748065pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Pedersen687769
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Per707772pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Kristoff687868
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ssc.png David757865pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Vermote707470
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/pum.png Declerq737768pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/t3a.png Altur708163
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/isa.png Russo747172pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/rpn.png Basso727171
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Walsleben667575pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Senechal678265
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Blythe668268pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Sulimov707965


A contender for the overall victory should be good on the hills, the cobbles and in time trials, with the latter one slightly less important. Based on the stats, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Wisniowski is the biggest favorite taking the average of the three aforementioned stats.

Stats don't always mean everything. He was in the race last year which was won by pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/mos.png Bewley. The other former winner, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/aeg.png Boom, does not particularly excel in any department but is one of the better all-rounders.

The list of contenders is endless. Riders who have been named in any of the previous subsections can be considered contenders provided they gain enough time in their respective discipline. Some riders are not superstars in any discipline but are well-rounded riders are pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Polanc and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/gzl.png Kruijswijk. Kruijswijk even finished runner-up last year. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/pum.png Cavagna and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Per should be favorites for the youth classification.
Manager of Minions
 
alexkr00
You swapped the cobblestones and time - trial columns in the favorites preview Grin
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Croatia14
Yeah Great idea to sacrifice this race in favour of the Balcans for Kump right. National Focus paying off once more. Polanc should be a good Podium contender with his pretty unique skillset alongside Wisniowski and Bewley. Per I expect in the run for the Top10. Can't wait to be disappointed. Great preview!
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SotD
It will be interesting to see how the new AI handles this race. It could go in many different directions.

Anyway, we don't have a favorite at all here. Maybe Petit can snatch a couple of stage podiums on stage 2, 6 and 8, other than that I guess we'll just have to hope for a lucky attack.

Maxime Daniel shows absolutely nothing on the cobbles usually...
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Marcovdw
alexkr00 wrote:
You swapped the cobblestones and time - trial columns in the favorites preview Grin


Fixed. With all the tables with different orders of attributes I was bound to mix one up
Manager of Minions
 
Bikex
If all goes well (which it won't) David could fight for a good GC here. However I feel like he will loose too much in the ITT and the TTT for which I couldn't bring good support as this race unfortunately clashes with the Deutschland Rundfahrt.
 
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TheManxMissile
Here mostly to hunt stages. Marcos "He really needs to do something to get a nickname" Altur should factor on the cobbles. As always i shout out to Darren Matthews as a potential option. Kek + Edmo as a sprint duo could work. But probably nothing more than one or two Top10's and a Top25 GC finish.
i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
alexkr00
Marcovdw wrote:
alexkr00 wrote:
You swapped the cobblestones and time - trial columns in the favorites preview Grin


Fixed. With all the tables with different orders of attributes I was bound to mix one up


Of course. Great job with the preview Grin
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roturn
On paper the mix of De Bie and Boom should be strong with Zardini, Van der Poel, Van Hooydonck all adding something as well.

Dekker getting a surprising race here late in his career alongside pure support Koep and Van der Hoorn.

Far from the individual strenght I had back in 2017 but Boom still could have it here with De Bie maybe even having better chances. Problem is that the ITT is not on his side really but neither is most of the rivals.

So a good race to maybe make Balkan forgotten.
 
knockout
I decided to stick to our previous strategy and go all out on cobbles support here: 82-76-76-73-73-73-71-68. Its a gamble but it could help us a lot if the TTT is dominated by the COB stat.

This race could go in any direction and i have no idea who is favored anymore
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ember
Cool race, great preview! Grin

Really looking forward to see how it plays out, especially the hilly stages and the TTT. We’ve come here previously with far greater ambitions (looking at you, Trentin) and even won the TTT. We won’t do that this year, but I still expect is to do better than 16th-19th place, which is the place the table puts is in.

Also, this is the first edition for Hampus. Let’s just say it won’t be the final one Pfft

Considering how the season has played out, Wisniowski is the big, big favourite for the overall.
 
DubbelDekker
Exciting race, hard to predict what will happen here. We have some riders who are able to do well, but nothing is guaranteed.
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alexkr00
Well, that's not... good
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DubbelDekker
Very happy with that TTT result! We put some valuable time into many strong riders.
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Croatia14
Not a Great Start for us. Definitely should have gone for a higher pace but drop some riders like Roman.
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ember
Well done, team! Happy with that performance, and good to see Hampus and Walsleben up there. Our possible GC result here will be very dependant on how the hilly stages are raced, I think. If they go easy there, we could have a shot at a top 15 overall with one of them.

And a very convincing win by Puma, congratulations!
 
SotD
Oh dear...
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TheManxMissile
TheManxMissile wrote:
As always i shout out to Darren Matthews as a potential option.


Called it! Although relied entirely on the AI to sh*t itself to get him and AC contesting a "sprint".

But seriously, what was that stage? I think that's the worst AI i've seen all season, and i cannot figure out why...
i.imgur.com/UmX5YX1.jpgi.imgur.com/iRneKpI.jpgi.imgur.com/fljmGSP.jpgi.imgur.com/qV5ItIc.jpgimgur.com/dr2BAI6.jpgimgur.com/KlJUqDx.jpg[/img[img]]https://imgur.com/yUygrQ.jpgi.imgur.com/C1rG9BW.jpgi.imgur.com/sEDS7gr.jpg
 
Yellow Jersey
Wowowowow Summerhill with another massive win! I just hate there's no reward for these like at the TDF, but I sure am pleased to see such a big win, and he has good chances of taking another if he keeps riding like this.
 
tastasol
Obviously a very important race for Wisniowski. Probably hurt us that we couldn't bring Würtz here. Not the perfect start, but decent enough.

Not a super fan of letting Sumerhill take the stage win here, but he did a great stage, so congrats to Andorra. He's a decent climber as well, so he could be a tricky one to beat.
 
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