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Paris Tours Discussion
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Posted on 11-08-2020 14:34
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cunego59
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Paris Tours
--
Preview

After many years as a conti race, the tradition-rich sprint classic is back where it started 12 years ago: in the Pro Tour, as a PTHC race even. With that come a lot of world-class riders and higher stakes as we’re slowly coming closer to the end of the season and points become ever more valuable in the fights for top ranking positions and against relegation.

Profile
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/profiles/pthc_pto.jpg

The profile is rather unspectacular, with a few short ascents here and there but always followed by a longer downhill and/or flat stretch, giving ample opportunity to recover. It’s a long race at 234 kilometers, but all in all, a pretty straightforward one - or so it seems. Because it’s worth mentioning that two of the last three editions have been won by riders attacking the peloton late, evidence that the two hills towards the end have the potential to throw the sprinters and their teams for a loop after a long day in the saddle. The first is just 500 meters short but up to 7% steep, the second one goes on for around 1.5 kilometers, also reaches up to 7% and its peak is only a little over 7 kilometers from the finish line. Let’s keep that in mind when we look at the favorites:

Tier I Sprinters
FLSPACSTRSHI
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Van Stayen768478767179
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Coquard738483717466
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Kristoff758379757168
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Kump748180767377
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/del.png Guarnieri768281777666

To try and give a bit more context than just the pure sprint stat, I’ve sorted the many, many strong sprinters here into different tiers, estimating their likelihood of success here - but take it with a grain of salt, obviously.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Michael Van Stayen might be the top favorite for this race. Not only has he one of the highest bursts of pure speed, but he’s also an excellent rouleur, has great stamina and is an elite puncheur. The only thing holding him back a bit is his acceleration and, to a lesser extent, his resistance.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Bryan Coquard has a leg up on the Belgian in both those categories and he’s the single fastest sprinter here. His stamina and straight flat skills are a bit lackluster in comparison to some of the other riders here, though. It might also be noteworthy that Festina has given its #1 to pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Adrien Petit, who we’ll get to later, so maybe the leadership role could be a bit contentious.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Alexander Kristoff is almost a copy of Van Stayen - except just a tiny step below him and without his great uphill abilities. Still, this makes him a big threat. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Marko Kump and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/del.png Jacopo Guarnieri can’t match the pure speed of the aforementioned three, but bring other qualities to the table. Kump is almost as good a puncheur as Van Stayen and equiped with similar secondary stats, while the latter are where Guarnieri fully shines, with the best resistance stat of any sprinter and good rouleur skills as well. He also proved he can compete here when he finished second last year, albeit in a weaker field.


Tier II Sprinters
FLSPACSTRSHI
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eur.png Lo Cicero728478716364
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/emo.png Maksimov728184706960
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Howard768279757068
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/phi.png Saber758179747268
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Van der Lijke738279737176
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/lpu.png Van Asbroeck758078757271
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/xr0.png Rowe787980767066
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bgc.png Silvestre788081707167

The riders in this tier have a slight weakness here and there but enough quality elsewhere to potentially compensate. Perfect example: pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eur.png Ivano Lo Cicero and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/emo.png Roman Maksimov, who have absolute Tier I speed and acceleration but severely lack resistance and struggle on the hills. This makes them some of the most volatile riders, with big boom or bust potential.

Possibly the safest bet in this tier is pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Leigh Howard, who’s just a really good rider all around. The same is true for pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/phi.png Lacen Saber and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/lpu.png Tom Van Asbroeck, although to a slightly lesser degree.

pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Nick Van der Lijke is a good choice if you expect the hills in the final kilometers to make a bigger impact, as he can almost rival Van Stayen and Kump in that regard - and he’s also very fast. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bgc.png Fabio Silvestre and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/xr0.png Luke Rowe lack that absolute top speed, but they’re the best flat powerhouses of the sprinters and especially the latter also has great stamina which in theory should allow him to play a good role in the finale.


Tier III Sprinters
FLSPACSTRSHI
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/yor.png Enger738178717369
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/vvg.png Manninen748080717566
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Kemboi787980747763
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Samolenkov748079757164
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ubs.png Reinhardt717984736667
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/spr.png Salleh708080736559
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/p4e.png Ulanowski738077716658
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Scully747980667067
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/isa.png Contreras727880737568

Here we have the riders whose success is much less guaranteed. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/yor.png Sondre Holst Enger and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/vvg.png Matti Manninen (6th in 2018) might be the most complete riders here alongside pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Salem Kemboi and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Artem Samolenkov, but others in this tier have a shot at a good result with a great day as well.


Top Lieutenants (or more …)
FLSPACSTRSHI
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Petit768078767265
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Van der Sande757979787370
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Lander777977777269
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bgc.png Coutinho727980757465
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/isa.png Santos767878717268
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Van Heerden728172736667
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Meyer728076706562
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tti.png Serebriakov748077736761
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/phi.png Havik737976746864
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/phi.png Te Brake757976747264
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/phi.png Wippert707882757067
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/del.png Kreder737880726870
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eur.png Matthews767979726765

The first four to five riders are most noteworthy here. Firstly, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fes.png Adrien Petit as a) the strongest of this bunch and b) as mentioned earlier potentially Festina’s Co-Leader next to Coquard, if the startlist is any indication, or at least should the latter struggle late in the race.

All four of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Van der Sande, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/fpc.png Lander, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bgc.png Coutinho (who finished 7th here last year) and pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/isa.png Santos also might have a shot at team leadership, as they’re very close in skill to their respective leaders.

The other riders seem less likely to make an impact, but I wanted to highlight some of the top leadouts on the one hand, and the “throw everything against the wall and see what sticks”-approach of teams like Tinkoff and Philips, who come here with a big array of strong sprinters.


Rouleurs
FLFISTRSSPAC
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Wisniowski807475767376
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/ino.png Ji806977706775
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Stoltz808576796274
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/grm.png Andersen797276767472
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Kneisky797876756771
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/tmo.png Fiedler796775766663
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/iso.png Katrasnik797971756270
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Dzamastagic787876727678
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/akm.png Oss786576757474
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/lpu.png Vanbilsen787280747271
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/del.png Van der Haar777670727270
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/bnm.png Wohler778072717172

We also have a bunch of great rouleurs present who could try to snatch the win from the sprinters - in fact, one of them has done so here already: pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/eav.png Morgan Kneisky has won this race two years ago with a late attack.

This list could also be a lot longer, but I had to make a cut at some point. pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Mark Dzamastagic deserves a mention as the rider with the biggest acceleration, pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Micros/evo.png Yannik Stoltz for the greatest fighting spirit - both also form the core of a very good support squad for Van Stayen -, but this part of the race is simply too unpredicable to make any legitimate predictions.


Finally, here’s the full startlist:

Startlist
pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2019/Races/PTHC/ParisTours/Startlist.png
.
 
Eden95
Complete roll of the dice race here with so many top and mid sprinters. Probably suited to a more all-round sprinter with good backups as the end will get a bit hairy; as such I think this tier list does a pretty good job of breaking it up.

We’ve got all bases covered with Kristoff and strong roulers Ji and GVA for a late move, really excited to see how this plays out!
Thanks for the wonderful preview.
Indosat - ANZ HQ

"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett
 
jandal7
Very keen to see what Rowe and Debesay can do, expecting an attack from at least one to put their flat stats to use, they both have done it before this year. If an attack works it could be a sweet sweet race for us! Otherwise I suppose hope for the outside shot at a top 10 with Rowe Pfft

Thanks for a comprehensive preview cunego, looking forward to what should hopefully be an eventful report Smile
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [PCT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing
[CX] Listerijns & Kiwis

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AbhishekLFC
If we could've thrown the entire wall, we would have Pfft

We were expecting a tough startlist, and that's exactly what we've got. Hoping for Saber to match his place in the favourite's list at least. That would be a decent outing. Hoping that our 'wall-stickers' can grow some spiderman powers and get some depth points out of this race for a change.

Thanks for the preview cunego Smile
 
Sykkel_Freak
This is where we have our win goal, so we got to aim for the victory, but it will be very tough with this startlist. Guarnieri's secondary stats should give him an edge, but Van Stayen, Kump and Van der Lijke will undoubtably handle the hill in the final better. Van der Haar is an option for a late attack, but I think our chances are best in a mass sprint.
 
Ollfardh
Van Asbroeck a bit outmatched here (I don't remember Kump being that good back in the PCT Pfft ), let's hope Vanbilsen tries something!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
SotD
3 star favorite = bad result... Let's get this over with.
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redordead
Go Kump!! Smile
 
Croatia14
Come on Kump, this is finally your time to shine. He's having the World Champions slump so far, but I want to see him performing here. Go Marko!

Also rooting for van Staeyen, time to leave relegation danger behind for Evonik.
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jph27
In theory this is the perfect race for Van der Sande and Lander, and a pretty good one for Kemboi. However considering the strength of the field I expect them to struggle - positioning over the late hills will be important, and I doubt PCM will place them near the front.
 
ember
Not sure if a sprint or a late attack is the logical result here. Fingers crossed for Oss either way, as I suspect Scully will struggle on the small hills. A breakaway appearance would also be cool, as we can't really expect any result here, be it a sprint or a late attack.

Thank you for a nice preview, cunego59!

If it comes down to a sprint, MVS must be the favourite, but I must say I also fancy Wisniowski to pull of a trademark Wisniowski move.
 
knockout
In theory my team should be super strong here. Its almost entirely composed of fantastic rouleurs. Van stayen should be one of the quickest after those few small speedbumps in the final and Dzama/Eislers/Blythe is a strong leadout on a route like this.

Riesebeek, Nooytens, Becis and especially Stoltz should also be very valuable in navigating through the final by either pacing hard or maybe even joining attacks themselves as they all share fantastic FL-sta-Res combos and can survive bumps decently as well.

Between this and Moscow where Ill have the exact same lineup i expect one great and one solid result.
A Big Thank You To All MG And ICL Reporters!
And To All Who Organize Something On Daily As Well!


pcmdaily.com/images/awards/2015/Manteam.pngpcmdaily.com/files/Awards2017/thread.pngpcmdaily.com/images/mg/PCMdailyAwards2018/thread.png
 
DubbelDekker
Another PTHC race with no Gazelle on the startlist. But we don't have any sprinters so it'd have been a waste of travel money anyway.

That bump near the finish looks pretty nasty, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's MVS, Kump or vd Lijke winning.
i.imgur.com/5iNQj.png
 
tastasol
We've brought pretty much every good flat rider in the squad. Hopefully they can try something towards the end. Always expecting a late attack from Wisniowski and it's a good race to try and stay away. Would be cool if Pedersen could do a good sprint also.

Van Stayen for the win.
 
SotD
SotD wrote:
3 star favorite = bad result... Let's get this over with.


*Slow clap* Great job guys - Great job *Slow clap*
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jph27
Send three 79 Sprint sprinters with 78, 77 and 75 Flat respectively. Score only two points because they're poorly positioned in spite of their flat stats. Sums up our season really.

Thanks for the report cunego!
 
jandal7
MVS Banana

Would have liked us to show some initiative but 10th is not bad in a straight sprint from Rowe, keeping some points ticking over in our top 10 fight. Thanks for the report cunego!
30/12/14 - matt17br said "Sutty's birthday is more important than [Jesus' Birthday]"
[ICL] Santos-Euskadi | The Life And Times | [PCT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing
[CX] Listerijns & Kiwis

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3x i.imgur.com/wM6Wok5.png x3
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knockout
Banana

So glad to see this big win. Very messy final that didnt make a lot of sense but i cant be mad about that considering that i drew the lucky lottery ticket.
A Big Thank You To All MG And ICL Reporters!
And To All Who Organize Something On Daily As Well!


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tsmoha
Howard f**cked up the positioning like some others, but luckily recovered well from this and delivers a solid 5th place eventually. Which is exactly, what I was hoping for. Overall a good race for Bennelong, with Oram showing himself in the breakaway and Wohler adding a low Top-20 to Howard's good result. Funny though, that we need to scroll way down to find the third best Bennelong rider.

Thanks for the quality report and congrats to those, who did well.. Some favorites with the expected failure though.
 
Croatia14
Fuck me sideways.

Thanks for the great report and congrats to knockout for a huge win though Smile
 
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