It’s time for the self-proclaimed fourth Grand Tour, and the biggest stage race below PT level - the Tour of America! 15 teams are present this year, 11 from the PCT and 4 from the CT. Despite always providing drama right across the three weeks, historically this is a race that has been avoided by the top PCT and CT stage racers. That has all changed this year, with some of the division’s big names present - but we’ll get to that after we look at the route.
The Route
The first week of the race takes place across the border in Canada, starting with a 3.2km Prologue around the streets of Edmonton. Three flat stages follow, meaning that we should expect a sprinter to be wearing the leader’s jersey in time for the first real test for the GC riders - a slightly lumpy 34.3km ITT on Stage 5. Stage 6 then provides our first mountains of the race, with a short but steep summit finish on Mount Norquay, before another chance for the sprinters on Stage 7, provided they survive the climb in the final 40km of the stage.
Week 2 begins with three more days in Canada, starting with a brutal summit finish atop Mount Revelstoke. There will be no rest for the riders over the following days, with a long Ardennes Classic style route for Stage 9, and another huge summit finish at Apex Mountain Resort on Stage 10. We then cross the border for a third summit finish in four days, with the long climb up Beartooth Pass, before some brief respite with the flat Stage 12. The riders won’t be able to relax too much though, as Stage 13 sees them take on the second ITT, 40.8km which should shake up the GC once again. Then we finish the week with a hilly stage that looks perfect for a breakaway, though we may see the GC contenders attack on the final climb - especially those who have lost major time the previous day.
And what to say about the final week? Six consecutive stages which should have huge implications for the GC and the KoM classification, starting with a 235.9km stage ending with a summit finish at Red Mountain Resort, which features two Category 1 and two Category 2 climbs. The next day sees another summit finish atop Horseshoe Mountain, by which point the riders will already have crossed a HC climb, before a slightly easier hilly stage with an uphill finish on Timber Peak. Stage 18 is another mountain stage featuring three Category 1 climbs, although the long descent to the finish may inhibit large gaps being formed, before we reach perhaps the race’s most decisive day - 195.3km to a summit finish at Mount Rainier, featuring 8 climbs including a summit finish. After that, there’s just the small matter of a 17.2km Mountain ITT on Yakima Peak before the ceremonial ride into Ellensburg, for America’s answer to the Champs Elysees.
The Favourites
Now we’ve discussed the route, let’s have a look at those riders here seeking to stand on the podium in Ellensburg in three weeks time. The first riders to discuss are the four strongest climbers on the startlist, who will all try and take different routes to victory. Reis and Shikai have been rivals throughout their career, developing into almost identical riders, and both will hope to build a gap in the Time Trials and then manage the race on the climbs, knowing they may not be able to match the accelerations of some of the other favourites.
Their main challenge in that sense is likely to come from former winner Berhane, who will have to go on the offensive in order to minimise his time losses in the Time Trials. And we can’t count on Machado, who even in the twilight of his career still has the ability to climb with the best, although he may suffer on the longer and harder stages.
Behind these four on the list of favourites come two slightly weaker climbers who will hope that their all round skills keep them in contention for the win. Marquez is an explosive climber who will need to be at his best as he tries to save his team from relegation, while Nerz is the kind of solid stage racer you would expect to excel in a race like this.
After our top six favourites come a number of pure climbers (who we will discuss later in the Stage Hunter section) and some of the weaker stage racers. These riders split into two camps - the strong all rounders, and those riders who aren’t quite pure climbers, but have weaknesses as stage racers. The former camp is headlined by the likes of De la Cruz, Warbasse, Ranaweera (who should be the big favourite for the U25 Classification), Senni and Teklehaimanot, with all but the latter seeking good finishes here to boost their teams prospects in the relegation battle. In the latter camp, we have riders like Duarte, Suaza and Ablenado who can TT well but may struggle on the hills, and Garby, who isn’t the best Time Trialist but wouldn’t expect to struggle too greatly on the hills.
MO
HIL
TT
STA
RES
REC
ACC
Reis
81
73
76
78
76
78
63
Shikai
81
71
76
74
76
78
66
Berhane
81
75
66
77
74
73
68
Machado
81
74
71
72
69
69
67
Marquez
80
71
70
70
78
77
80
Nerz
80
72
73
75
72
74
68
Duarte
79
67
74
73
75
76
72
Suaza
79
64
72
64
75
65
78
Garby
79
70
68
71
76
75
70
De la Cruz
78
75
74
72
76
75
73
Warbasse
78
75
74
75
73
72
65
Ranaweera
78
73
74
75
75
74
65
Ablenado
78
67
72
73
77
77
65
Senni
77
73
74
76
79
76
72
Teklehaimanot
77
74
74
72
72
76
70
The Stage Hunters
As previously mentioned, there are a number of riders here to hunt for stage wins, and in the cases of the climbers and sprinters respectively, the KoM and Points classifications. The pure climbers are headlined by Seboka, Pantano Gomez and Vinhas, although the former duo may be pressed into the service of their leader Machado, limiting their own opportunities.
MO
HIL
STA
RES
ACC
Seboka
80
62
63
70
67
Pantano Gomez
79
71
73
74
68
Vinhas
79
69
72
73
60
Atapuma
78
73
71
72
73
Medvedev
78
64
65
77
72
Scarponi
77
75
71
72
70
Parra Bustamente
77
74
73
74
71
Bardet
77
74
72
70
75
Iino
77
73
73
72
67
Hoem
77
72
74
69
62
Hiratsuka
77
74
73
74
60
Hirschlein
77
71
71
71
59
We also have a number of strong puncheurs who have made the trip here, seeking to fight for stage wins. Zordan, Kratochvila and Hategeka are the strongest on the hills, while all of the listed puncheurs are solid climbers, with Kratochvila and Dall'Oste likely outside bets for good GC positions if they gain time on their favoured terrain.
HIL
MO
STA
RES
ACC
Zordan
77
73
72
72
74
Kratochvila
77
76
70
68
64
Hategeka
77
72
74
69
66
Dall'Oste
76
76
71
74
71
Rodriguez Galindo
76
74
72
72
67
Roche
76
74
72
69
66
With the two long Time Trials, it should be no surprise that a number of specialists have made the trip here to try and add to their point tallies. Pure Time Trialists such as Ford, Cruz and Ligthart are the likely favourites, but riders like Craddock, Rolland, Ahmad Zamri, Barbio and De Luna will hope to exceed expectations if climbing has an effect (especially in the first TT) as well as using their abilities against the clock to aid their fight for good GC positions. The same riders, with the addition of Chavanne (82 PRL) and Van Aert (77 PRL) should be the big favourites for the opening Prologue also.
TT
MO
RES
Ford
80
51
62
Cruz
78
54
72
Ligthart
78
54
66
Steensen
77
59
73
Sebright
77
56
70
Craddock
76
72
75
Rolland
76
73
69
Ahmad Zamri
75
75
74
Barbio
75
74
73
De Luna
75
74
72
Joeaar
75
63
70
Finally, the sprint field is headlined by Itami, Kragh Andersen and Haller, all of whom could claim to be the strongest sprinter present. Gaviria is another rider who could lay claim to that title, with the second tier of sprinters containing a number of other notable names such as Aberasturi and Manarelli.
We should be able to get a top 10 GC and the Youth jersey out of this one, hopefully we can add a stage win or 2 along the way, looking towards Gabby for the prologue win and hopefully some early days in the leaders jersey.
This is definitely a stronger startlist than we anticipated, I was hoping it would be too many racedays for a lot of the stronger guys and that we would have been in with a shot at the podium. At least we should still see the Sauber jersey, or more likely the youth jersey, towards the front of the bunch late into stages which has been a bit of a rarity this season.
I definitely think it's the right choice not to participate here, given the startlist. We'd have to hope for breakaways once more - and 21 RDs is too much of a risk when you don't have a proper GC/stage win contender, imho.
But will still follow the race, of course Thanks for the detailed preview, jph!
Never thought that this race would become so important when signing up for it but here we are. Decent hopes from a few riders, not least in Marquez but the likes of Wippert and Ligthart in stages that suit them. Not very sure what to expect from Marquez as he has been hit and miss all season. Really need him outperform his place in the favourites list but it could very well go the other way.
Nonetheless, looking forward to our first appearance in this race. Let's see if we leave here with memories worth remembering.
Thanks for the great preview jpg and looking forward to the reports
First time we're in this race, and we're immediatly under pressure for points. Senni should top 10 with Dall'Oste in support and there's a few stages Gaviaria should like as well. Thanks for the preview, looking forward to this!
First time ever in this race, and its because I did the calculations from last year. Anyone with even a decent showing here gets a lot of points, so the hope is Shikai can atleast finish on the podium, and Itami can take stage wins. If that happens, I like our chances of a big points haul. Looking at the startlist I think Shikai should be the favourite for the MO tt, with Rolland right behind him, and only Berhane and Reis I could see realistically finishing ahead of Shikai, due to their Hill stat.
This race has been the big "wildcard" that I've been waiting for all year, so Im hoping it goes well. The first week doesn't suit Shikai the best, the MO stage is more of a hill, but after that only one non flat day doesn't suit him, as every other climbing stage should be a MO day, rather than MO/HILL
Really excited on this, Machado did really good in the Tour and I'll call that practice to here, Machado is strong enough to fight for the podium and we really do hope to achieve that goal, we bring a really strong team to support him in the mountains so secondarily also the KOM classification would be a nice result, the team is fully focused on performing in the mountains so I expect nothing less. Let's go!!!
Thanks for the preview jph and all your reporting efforts recently, much appreciated.
Kraftwerk have gambled a lot of race days here and after Osterreich we are hopeful to get points from our depth.
Nerz should compete for the top 5.
Teklehaimanot could manage a top 10.
Geniez and Ablenado might make around top 20.
Gonzalez Cortes and Tatarinov provide good mountain support.
Looking win the team competition with this depth.
Haller should make some podiums on the sprint stages but only has Gough for chase/leadout support.
Our entire season rides on this race, and it looks like we made the wrong choice. Very surprised to see so many big names here. Two years ago Garby was maybe the 5th or 6th best mountain climber in the race. That is far from true now. Same with sprinters - I didn't see so many coming here with so few opportunities after the first week. Now I can't trust AKA to do anything.
I guess I really should temper expectations now, but honestly, we can't afford to. Warbasse needs to do well. He has been solid this year on all terrains, and that needs to continue, so he can weed out the more one dimensional guys. AKA needs to place highly in the sprints. We can't compromise.
I'm looking forward to the racing, but I'd be lying if I wasn't also dreading it now. It seems our final battle against relegation might not be much of a battle at all.
Thanks for the awesome preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
As almost everyone, I expected less stacked field. TOP20 for Kratochvila and few podiums in sprints will be considered as success. Or maybe Nych will finally remember his attacking spirit from last season when he shocked cycling world by stealing of U23 RR title?
As a couple of you have said, we also were eyeing this race. It's actually a win goal for us. In that regard it's a relief to see Reis atop the favourites table, but Shikai, Berhane, Machado, Marquez, to name a few, are all pretty even candidates. The latter especially makes me uneasy. Andorra has a prominent climbing squad which could prove useful. Reis is generally a last week fish in GTs. Let's see how it works.
Plenty of hopes and gambles on the table. This has all the ingredients for a superb event. Thanks again jph for your work and dedication. Great preview!
A quick note - the prologue was an absolute shambles, summed up by the fact that I had to edit things afterwards as one of the Control Team riders ended up in 7th after me just leaving him to do his ride on automatic. However, the remaining stages are much better, I promise
As to why, I'd have to attribute it to a combination of factors. It was largely downhill and features a lot of twists and turns, and the wind was very variable. Still surprised at how the results look like they came out of a random number generator, but it's something to learn from when looking at stage design going forwards.
Thanks for the explanation, couldn't figure out how Senni was the worst of us. Let's see how the AI handles that combined with Dall'Oste's 5th in GC Edited by Ollfardh on 01-07-2020 11:09
6th by Atapuma was an extremely pleasant surprise for us, only 1 second down. However, we need to rely for Aberasturi if we have any hope for yellow jersey the next few days.
Fun start for Atapuma, let's hope this is only the beginning!
And let's all give a round of well deserved praise to jph who's just finished Baltic Chain tour and is now reporting Tour of Britain and Tour of America similtaneously! That's really impressing and we're so grateful for all the hours you're putting down.
Wow, prologues are absolutely broken. No coherence whatsoever. I was interested to see how AKA would do with his 75 prologue. No need to wonder, he finished 115th
Foss finishing third is pretty hilarious. But that's perfectly fine. I mean, how could I complain about any unexpected stage podium? I'll take it. Plus, Foss starts in the white jersey, which is cool.
I guess the race really starts now.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Tour of America
