Welcome everyone to Brazil, where for the second straight year, riders are taking on a shorter, altered version of the 2016 Olympic Road Race route as part of the MGUCI's C2 circuit. The team selection here is incredibly diverse. We have 4 PCT teams, 10 CT teams, and 8 Amateur teams, making for a packed 22 team startlist. No doubt, each team will have their own goals depending on their level and circumstances.
The profile is interesting. In its inaugural edition last year, the race was purely for the puncheurs. Travis Meyer won it from a reduced group sprint. However, if earlier races this year have been any indication, we're unlikely to see the same kind of result this year. Climbers have found way to outmatch puncheurs in these hilly classics with longer, more medium mountain style climbs. The pure puncheurs and punchy sprinters will thus likely have a harder time of it this year. Still, the finish is flat, so if a group comes it, sprinting ability could decide the winner.
That being said, there are three distinct rider types who will be vying for victory this time around.
The Hybrids
Last Name
First Name
Mtn
Hill
Sta
Res
Spr
Acc
Chaves
Johan Esteban
76
79
74
73
60
72
Siskevicius
Evaldas
73
78
73
72
71
75
Squire
Robbie
77
77
70
70
61
71
Hoelgaard
Daniel
74
77
72
72
68
74
Goh
Choon Huat
74
76
74
74
62
68
Fernandez
Ruben
75
75
72
69
60
66
De Vos
Adam
75
75
73
73
62
69
Gaspar
Joao
75
75
73
72
61
67
Blikra
Havard
75
75
72
70
62
72
The first rider type are the hybrids. These guys can go well uphill regardless of the length or steepness of the climbs. Some are puncheurs who can also hold their own in the mountains. Others are fairly even in both disciplines. If I was a betting man, I'd reckon these groups of riders is the most likely to take advantage of this type of parcours this time around.
With that reference, Esteban Chaves is clearly the favorite here. He is both one of the best puncheurs in the race, and one of the best climbing puncheurs. Backing him up is perhaps the second best hybrid in the race, Squire. Squire is an even better climber and almost as good of a puncheur. A guy like Bravo also makes a great domestique here. If team strategy is good and the two captains can work together well, Azteca have to be the favorite. However, they will certainly need to do their damage on the climbs to claim victory. Neither Chaves nor Squire are good sprinters, and there are several kilometers of flat leading up to the finish.
Siskevicius will be a primary challenger to Azteca in that regard. While not quite as good of a climber as Chaves or Squire, he can certainly hold his own, and is a much better sprinter if it comes to that. DK Zalgris have also put a strong team behind him including strong puncheur Teklit and several climbing domestiques. His goal will be to last until the finale and outsprint his opponents.
Hoelgaard is another guys similar to Siskevicius, although he is at a disadvantage team wise. Tyrg are fielding mostly development riders, so he likely won't have much support in the later stages. We'll have to see how much that matters.
There are many other hybrid type riders in the race, although many of these riders are not used to being leaders very often. For a team like NENT, for instance, strong hybrids like De Vos and Gaspar
may be in conflict with the team's normal puncheur options. Managers will have to be flexible with their on-road strategy to determine which rider type holds the best chances as the race develops.
The Climbers
Last Name
First Name
Mtn
Hill
Sta
Res
Spr
Acc
Pantano Gomez
Jarlinson
79
71
73
74
50
68
Hirschlein
Ole
77
71
71
71
54
59
Bagot
Yoann
76
73
74
69
58
64
Baltazar
Carlos
76
71
71
72
58
69
Lundberg
Ludvig
76
71
66
71
57
65
Galiev
Ulugbek
76
69
73
79
50
58
Khripta
Andriy
75
74
73
70
62
67
Juodvalkis
Egidijus
75
73
69
70
67
68
La Lavandier
Mathieu
75
73
73
70
53
63
Niyonshuti
Adrien
75
73
73
72
66
67
Mat Senan
Mohammad Saufi
75
71
74
71
58
70
Le Bon
Johan
75
70
73
74
64
66
The second category of riders are pure climbers. These guys almost always favor the high mountains, and in previous years, they would not be expected to attend, let alone succeed here. However, this season has shown that their efforts are not completely futile in races such as these. They may very well survive just as easily as puncheurs now. However, where they hurt are the other attributes associated with hilly classics. Most of these guys are terrible sprinters and can hardly attack. That means they'll have to take big risks to go from long range if they want to win.
Unsurprisingly, most CT teams have decided to forego this risky and unprecedented strategy, as it is too big of a points risk. Instead, it's PCT and amateur teams who have tried to find a niche here. Chief among them is Andorra. They have sent a strong pure climbing squad here, featuring Pantano, Hirschlein, Baltazar, and Galiev. None of these guys are absolutely atrocious on hills, but they wouldn't normally be expected to do will in a hilly classic. Nonetheless, they have decided to try their luck here. As a PCT team, there are greater restrictions for them for puncheurs compared to CT teams, so it make sense to try to find a backdoor to results. We'll see if they're successful.
There are a few other climbers present as well. Most of these guys are from amateur teams, such as Bagot, Khripta, and Lundberg. Likewise with Andorra, these riders may be better than puncheur options on their teams even with they're lesser skillsets. So, they will try to craft the race to their strengths if they have the chance.
The Puncheurs
Last Name
First Name
Mtn
Hill
Sta
Res
Spr
Acc
Costa
Rui
70
79
71
70
68
70
Edmondson
Joshua
69
79
75
72
70
76
Bystrom
Sven Erik
68
79
75
72
68
76
Mehr-Wenige
Dietmar
66
78
74
69
66
67
Roux
Anthony
65
78
78
71
57
75
Teklit
Tesfar
70
77
75
72
64
70
Dieteren
Jan
70
77
75
70
63
66
Zingle
Romain
69
77
74
69
66
76
Pellaud
Simon
65
77
74
68
65
70
Villella
Davide
65
77
72
74
65
80
Diggle
Tom
65
77
74
70
64
70
Besada
Felix Emilio
63
77
74
74
56
77
Finally, we get to the last rider type - the puncheurs. For many years, they would have been the obvious favorites here. The multitudes of them who have been sent to race here are evidence of that. But times have changed. Will the puncheurs still be able to reign supreme on this type of stage, with climbs of several kilometers?
Edmondson hopes so. He is a rider much like Travis Meyer, last year's winner. A pure puncheur who is not terrible on longer climbs, but also not strong on them. He packs a good punch, good stamina, and a decent finishing kick. If he can survive, and the race isn't particularly hard, he can show the Meyer type win is not obsolete. That being said, BNZ have not brought a very strong team here to support him, so he'll have to do it without much help.
Similarly, Rui Costa won't have a ton of help from Euskaltel, who have sent a small squad of only six riders here, with three talents. Costa is just as good of a puncheur as Edmonson, but does not have the same acceleration or sprint ability. His advantage instead comes in his time trialing ability. Unfortunately, that won't help him here. Still, he's a class rider and is in with a shot.
On the flip side is a team like Equinor Pro Cycling. Leader Sven Erik Bystrom has the talent of a guy like Edmonson, with a tremendous team to back him up. Mehr-Wenige, Zingle, and Rovny are all worthy puncheurs in their own right, and could even surprise as a foil in this race. That being said, they are just that - pure puncheurs. This team strength will only be particularly useful if the race favors puncheurs over climbers. But that's probably fine, since they're counting on Bystrom anyway. He will probably succeed or fail in the same conditions as his domestiques.
Another name to watch out for is Anthony Roux. The Frenchman struggles even more than most of his competitors on mountains, and that might hurt him. His primary strength is also his stamina, which is not very relevant in this fairly short classic. Still, he loves to attack more than anything. You can count on him being aggressive and pushing the envelope, which could translate to overperformance.
Jan Dieteren is a similar fighter, and the top puncheur from a PCT team. While he lacks acceleration, his mountains skills are better than a guy like Roux, which may help him stick with the hybrids if the race goes that direction.
Beyond these riders, the list of puncheurs here is still very long. If the race goes in their favor, any one of them could surprise. We'll have to see what the race holds to judge just what type of rider it is best suited for. See you tomorrow!
I guess our best bet will be Freuler, but he'll have to hope for the race not being ridden too hard. He's already proven to be a strong finisseur, if he can keep up with the others.
But with the knowledge about "hilly" races gained so far, I'd definitely have nominated Saggiorato for this race, so I'm not having really high hopes here.
Looking for a pure climber approach, bit of a surprise attempt here, points don't come easy but I know there's a good chance a rider like Pantano can really benefit if the pace is high throughout all the climbs.
Hoelgaard will certainly be hoping for a sprint between those with decent climbing ability, that would effectively make it just Siskevicius he has to worry about. Heres hoping he can hold on over the semi-mountains.
With such a strong setup for this race, we should be excited, however due to the finish, my hopes aren't very high. I see this likely as a 20ish rider bunch finish, and we won't be very good in that respect. We can be hopeful, but certainly not expecting too much.
Surprised to see a rider of ours being named in the preview. Goh is certainly a dependable man but I'd be thrilled to see him snatch a noticeable result here.
This race has the ingredients for entertaining racing. Let's see if PCM follows that lead.
We ended up sending multiple different riders with a chance of performing here, should be a very interesting race as the rest of the field is also incredibly stacked.
Yeah, we finally get some great racing on a hilly parcours - which actually shouldn't have favored us. But Thièry and Freuler, who had an anonymous race and surprisingly took 12th, make this our best hilly classic this season in our final C2 outing. Well done, and that gives us even more hope for Canada!
Pellaud, on the other hand, was pathetic once again - it's definitely not a good season for puncheurs without any climbing skills.
Congrats to Hoelgaard for an outstanding race, and thanks a lot for a great report!
Absolute disaster for us, was deffo a race where I was looking at least a top 10. Thanks for the report and congrats to the managers whose riders survived the split.
Can't see the pictures in the report sadly made it a bit hard to keep up, however it was a big big one thanks BBL! Congratz also to Tryg!
Pantano and Hirschlein struggled but I can say Im happy with the race, Urcelay making into the break and grinding it out for a brilliant Top10, and Galiev also right there. With 6 riders in the Top33 I would've dreamt for more, but it wasn't a disapointment.
Yellow Jersey wrote:
Can't see the pictures in the report sadly made it a bit hard to keep up, however it was a big big one thanks BBL! Congratz also to Tryg!
Pantano and Hirschlein struggled but I can say Im happy with the race, Urcelay making into the break and grinding it out for a brilliant Top10, and Galiev also right there. With 6 riders in the Top33 I would've dreamt for more, but it wasn't a disapointment.
Hold on, I made an adjustment to fix one photo and I might have broken all of them. Any luck now?
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Solid result from Niyonshuti, and a shame that Suryadi couldn't add a few points as well. Looks like we won't catch Adriatic to win the Amateur rankings, but 2nd will do
Great report bbl, if you send me the file names from the FTP server I can try and fix it for you - the links in the report don't work when you try and go to them, which is the problem
Pretty much what I expected in this race, as I said earlier even though on paper we looked like a strong team, the way this race was going to play out would be difficult. The high pace from the peloton for much of the race was unfortunate as being out of position even for a minute would end up disastrous.
