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Riga - Jurmala GP Discussion
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| cunego59 |
Posted on 21-04-2020 09:57
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Team Manager
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 Riga - Jurmala GP
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Preview
We’re looking at a true flat classic as we head to the Baltic republic of Latvia. It’s only the second time the ManGame circuit makes a stop for this race, but classified as a PTHC race, there’s a lot on the line for everyone involved.
The route takes them from the Latvian capital to the seaside resort town of Jurmala, where we are likely to see a sprint finish. You may see a few bumps on the profile, but the incline never rises above 3-4% for any longer time. At 190 kilometers, sheer length also shouldn’t be a problem for our contenders here.
Speaking of contenders, the sheer number of top sprinters here is incredible. It didn’t seem reasonable to just go by sprint stat alone, so by combining a few indicators, I tried to sort the best sprinters into three tiers. Don't take them as gospel though, almost any Tier 2 sprinter could believably challenge for the win, any Tier 3 sprinter enter the Top 10 and so on.
| FL | SP | AC | RS | | FL | SP | AC | RS |  Bewley | 78 | 83 | 83 | 76 |  Kennaugh | 77 | 82 | 81 | 71 |  Guarnieri | 76 | 82 | 81 | 76 |  Demare | 73 | 82 | 81 | 72 |  Van Stayen | 76 | 84 | 78 | 71 |  Groenewegen | 73 | 82 | 81 | 71 |
Bewley is arguably the top favorite here. There's just no other more complete rider regarding both speed as well as flat and resistance stats. The latter two are the reason for Guarnieri being this high - and the reason some other riders are lower, but we'll get to that.
Van Stayen, who has one of the highest sprint stats in this race, and Kennaugh also both boast very high flat stats but lack a little in terms of resistance.
Demare and Groenewegen do, too, and additionally don't have that high a flat stat, but they're still the most complete of the remaining contenders.
| FL | SP | AC | RS | | FL | SP | AC | RS |  Lo Cicero | 72 | 84 | 78 | 63 |  Cavendish | 72 | 82 | 80 | 70 |  Guerao | 74 | 83 | 76 | 64 |  Kump | 74 | 81 | 80 | 73 |  Avelino | 71 | 83 | 78 | 66 |  Maksimov | 72 | 81 | 84 | 69 |  Howard | 76 | 82 | 79 | 70 |  Saber | 75 | 81 | 79 | 72 |  Vanderbiest | 74 | 82 | 77 | 69 |  Itami | 75 | 80 | 82 | 67 |  Ciolek | 74 | 82 | 78 | 68 |  Van Asbroeck | 75 | 80 | 78 | 72 |
In this very deep tier, Lo Cicero is arguably the rider most likely to be undervalued here. His speed is only matched by Van Staeyen and he also has the strongest team support, but his resistance just made me hesitant to put him among the top favorites.
The same applies to Guerao and Avelino, the next fastest riders on this list. The SPAR rider also lacks elite acceleration. Still, both could challenge for the top positions, no doubt.
A number of very similarly strong riders make up the rest of this group. Howard stands out for his top flat stat in combination with high-end speed, Maksimov has the highest acceleration of any rider here.
| FL | SP | AC | RS | | FL | SP | AC | RS |  Lavoine | 73 | 80 | 78 | 64 | Haller | 72 | 80 | 79 | 71 | | Tewelde | 74 | 78 | 77 | 72 | Selig | 71 | 79 | 81 | 68 |  Ulanowski | 73 | 80 | 77 | 66 | Bouhanni | 74 | 80 | 77 | 69 | | Lutsyshyn | 70 | 79 | 80 | 73 | Hayakawa | 73 | 79 | 79 | 68 |  Kip | 69 | 80 | 82 | 63 | Vanoverschelde | 72 | 80 | 75 | 64 | | Colbrelli | 74 | 79 | 75 | 72 | Lay | 73 | 79 | 81 | 66 |  Martinelli | 71 | 78 | 78 | 70 | Aberasturi | 74 | 79 | 78 | 71 |
In this group, we have the team leaders who are considered as more of a long shot, as well as some of the best leadouts.
Kulczyk, Popo4Ever and Andorra all come with a double lead, with one faster rider and one that is more well-rounded. Kip is the prime example, as his speed would easily put him in Tier 2, but his backup stats are just lackluster. Martinelli represents Generali's best hope for a decent result.
On the right side, we have some very strong domestiques. Haller and Selig are possibly the best bets for a good result if they hang on after leading out their captains, but there's a lot of randomness involved in that regard.
As is often the case, Europcar brings the deepest roster of sprinters, supporting Lo Cicero not just with Lay and Aberasturi, but also with Matthews and Modolo.
| FL | RS | FT | SP | AC | | Stoltz | 80 | 79 | 85 | 62 | 74 | | Arashiro | 80 | 67 | 78 | 68 | 74 | | Katrasnik | 79 | 75 | 79 | 62 | 70 | | Summerhill | 78 | 72 | 81 | 70 | 73 | | Dzamastagic | 78 | 72 | 78 | 76 | 78 | | Vanbilsen | 78 | 74 | 72 | 72 | 71 | | Kamyshev | 77 | 75 | 61 | 66 | 60 | | Wohler | 77 | 71 | 80 | 71 | 72 | | Breen | 77 | 72 | 74 | 73 | 72 |  Varga | 76 | 73 | 83 | 63 | 78 |
Finally, let's have a quick look at some of the riders who could try to topple the sprinters with a late attack. Stoltz is the most obvious pick in that regard, but he's not the only one. Northern classics specialist Summerhill is a name to watch as well, as are Arashiro, Katrasnik and Dzamastagic. Varga has the advantage of not having a top sprinter in his team who he might have to work for, in contrast to the other remaining riders on this list.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 21-04-2020 10:46
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Team Leader
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Unreal startlist. I'm not sure what to expect, but I guess a top10-15 would be already be a good result.
Thanks for the thorough preview cunego!
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 21-04-2020 10:58
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Directeur Sportif
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Well, Howard usually does best, when he's not amongst the favorites. So I guess this startlist could be a good thing for him/us. Just want him to be in the mix, when it counts.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 21-04-2020 12:23
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Tour de France Champion
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Vanbilsen with a late attack? Can't see Van Asbroeck do much here.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 21-04-2020 12:28
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Small Tour Specialist
Posts: 2130
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Tough competition here, but hoping Guarnieri will challenge for the win. Results lately have been below par, so we are in need of a morale booster.
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 21-04-2020 13:59
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COME ONNNNNN
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 06-12-2025 20:46
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 21-04-2020 14:48
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Not much we can do here. Maybe Teunissen can try something.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 21-04-2020 15:47
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Tour de France Champion
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Every time I'm not in a sprinter's race I breathe a sigh of relief. And that field... woah
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 22-04-2020 10:02
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Woohoo, 96th! 
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 22-04-2020 10:04
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Exciting race. Thought Avelino was cooked before the sprint, but then he managed to get in the mix. Too bad he faded in the end losing about 7-8 positions in the last couple of meters. 15th is within what I was considering to be a good result so I''l take it.
Congrat to Delvaux. Guarnieri has had a at least a few high-profile victories this season and he seems to have justified his team's sprint leadership!
And thanks for another great report cunego. I love your style, it's both informative and creative at the same time!
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 22-04-2020 10:10
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Ginanni can't handle hills anymore so he switched to showing himself on the flat. Guess it's better than nothing.
29th by Teunissen is all we could've hoped for.
Solid sprint by Guarnieri. Congrats Sykkel!
It seems like cunego's assessment that FL and RES are important was correct. Those six tier 1 riders got 1,2,4,5,6 and 13th.
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| knockout |
Posted on 22-04-2020 10:21
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Grand Tour Champion
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yikes
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Bikex |
Posted on 22-04-2020 11:29
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10th from Guerao is okay, thanks for the report and congrats to Delvaux |
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| Croatia14 |
Posted on 22-04-2020 11:32
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Not enough.
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| roturn |
Posted on 22-04-2020 11:42
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6th by Groenewegen is a good result in a sprint classic.
Obviously his bad positionining did hurt him here as he had to pass lots of riders and being quite blocked at times.
But the first 5 are okay to finish ahead, so nothing bad here.
Thanks for the report! |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 22-04-2020 11:47
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15025
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Ok guys, PTHC race means we're the ones who don't have to chase. Let them do the dirty work next time!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| tastasol |
Posted on 22-04-2020 12:37
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Nice win by our former rider Guarnieri! Congrats Sykkel 
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 22-04-2020 12:58
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A repeat of last year's 14th place for Saber is about par for the course I guess in this field.
I missed out on commenting after the great preview despite reading it, so thanks for both that and the report cunego
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| Sykkel_Freak |
Posted on 22-04-2020 20:31
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Posts: 2130
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Awesome to strike back with a win after a run of average to poor results! Really exciting race, and a close sprint. Enjoyed the report a lot! And thanks for the congratulations, guys!
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 23-04-2020 14:50
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Nice result for Sykkel_Freak and thanks for a great preview and report cunego, sorry I am a bit late to the party.
Given the stacked field I am pretty happy with 7th for Cav, keeps the points ticking along.
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