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Slightly Mathematical PT Preview 2019
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 26-10-2019 11:56
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Team Manager
Posts: 31706
Joined: 08-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Format Reminder
- Riders each receive a rating based on their skills in six categories (Hill, Stage Race. Sprint, TT, Cobbles, Climbs), as also used in the OVL calculations
- Riders within a within-team ranking for each category, which is adjusted to account for realism, and reduce the influence of the strongest riders where appropriate.
- Weighted team ratings for each category calculated, based on the selected three best riders in each team for that category
- Resulting category rankings and scores are then used in four different ways, to create four division ranking lists
- These are combined into an overall division prediction.
Context - Last Year, Prediction vs Reality
| 1 |  | Moser - Sygic | 1 |  | Team Puma - SAP | -5 | | 2 |  | T-Mobile | 2 | | Moser - Sygic | 1 | | 3 |  | Evonik - ELKO | 3 |  | Festina - Dexia | -10 | | 4 |  | Air France - KLM | 4 |  | EA Vesuvio | -6 | | 5 |  | Aker - MOT | 5 |  | Gazelle | -4 | | 6 | | Team Puma - SAP | 6 | | Air France - KLM | 2 | | 7 |  | Hugo Boss | 7 | | T-Mobile | 5 | | 8 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 8 | | Evonik - ELKO | 5 | | 9 | | Gazelle | 9 |  | Isostar Slovenija | -2 | | 10 | | EA Vesuvio | 10 | | Hugo Boss | 3 | | 11 | | Isostar Slovenija | 11 |  | Bennelong - Mitchelton | -10 | | 12 |  | Team Tinkoff | 12 | | Aker - MOT | 7 | | 13 | | Festina - Dexia | 13 |  | eBuddy | -6 | | 14 |  | Team UBS | 14 | | RBC Pro Cycling | 6 | | 15 |  | Desigual | 15 |  | Grieg - Eftel | -1 | | 16 | | Grieg - Eftel | 16 |  | Aegon - Lavazza | -1 | | 17 | | Aegon - Lavazza | 17 | | Team Tinkoff | 5 | | 18 |  | Volvo acc. by Spotify | 18 | | Team UBS | 4 | | 19 | | eBuddy | 19 | | Desigual | 4 | | 20 |  | Berg Cycles | 20 |  | Porto - Prio | -2 | | 21 | | Bennelong - Mitchelton | 21 | | Volvo acc. by Spotify | 3 | | 22 | | Porto - Prio | 22 | | Berg Cycles | 2 | | |
Compared to PCT, the overall prediction did correlate better with the final outcome in PT. The division did prove to be very competitive too, with only 1000 points between 3rd and 16th, so many of these predictions could easily have ended up either better or worse.
At the very top, Puma, Festina, Vesuvio and Gazelle all rose up higher against their predictions - which in return saw some of the higher predicted teams go the other way.
Three of the five relegation teams were predicted, with Bennelong by far surpassing their predicted 21st place.
The overall prediction had a correlation of 0.69, but this was beaten by R4, with a correlation of 0.73. That comparison is included below, including a couple of spot on placings.
Context - Last Year, R4 vs Reality
| 1 | | Moser - Sygic | 1 | | Team Puma - SAP | -8 | | 2 | | Evonik - ELKO | 2 | | Moser - Sygic | 1 | | 3 | | T-Mobile | 3 | | Festina - Dexia | -5 | | 4 | | Hugo Boss | 4 | | EA Vesuvio | -9 | | 5 | | Air France - KLM | 5 | | Gazelle | -5 | | 6 | | Aker - MOT | 6 | | Air France - KLM | 1 | | 7 | | Isostar Slovenija | 7 | | T-Mobile | 4 | | 8 | | Festina - Dexia | 8 | | Evonik - ELKO | 6 | | 9 | | Team Puma - SAP | 9 | | Isostar Slovenija | 2 | | 10 | | Gazelle | 10 | | Hugo Boss | 6 | | 11 | | Aegon - Lavazza | 11 | | Bennelong - Mitchelton | -9 | | 12 | | Grieg - Eftel | 12 | | Aker - MOT | 6 | | 13 | | EA Vesuvio | 13 | | eBuddy | -2 | | 14 | | RBC Pro Cycling | 14 | | RBC Pro Cycling | 0 | | 15 | | eBuddy | 15 | | Grieg - Eftel | 3 | | 16 | | Volvo acc. by Spotify | 16 | | Aegon - Lavazza | 5 | | 17 | | Team UBS | 17 | | Team Tinkoff | -1 | | 18 | | Team Tinkoff | 18 | | Team UBS | 1 | | 19 | | Desigual | 19 | | Desigual | 0 | | 20 | | Bennelong - Mitchelton | 20 | | Porto - Prio | -2 | | 21 | | Berg Cycles | 21 | | Volvo acc. by Spotify | 5 | | 22 | | Porto - Prio | 22 | | Berg Cycles | 1 |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 26-10-2019 11:56
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Team Manager
Posts: 31706
Joined: 08-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Category Rankings
| Hills | Stage Races | Sprints | | 1 | Air France - KLM | Aker - MOT | Festina - OAKA | | 2 | Fablok - Bank BGZ | Isostar - LimeBike | Moser - Sygic | | 3 | Isostar - LimeBike | Gazelle | Podium Ambition | | 4 | T-Mobile | Grieg - Maersk | Aker - MOT | | 5 | Evonik - ELKO | Team Puma - SAP | Evonik - ELKO | | 6 | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | Bennelong - Mitchelton | eBuddy | | 7 | SPAR - Siam Cement | Festina - OAKA | Aegon - Lavazza | | 8 | Moser - Sygic | Farfetch Pro Cycling | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | 9 | Aegon - Lavazza | Air France - KLM | EA Vesuvio | | 10 | Bennelong - Mitchelton | Moser - Sygic | Air France - KLM | | | | | | Time Trial | Cobbles | Climbs | | 1 | Grieg - Maersk | Moser - Sygic | T-Mobile | | 2 | Repsol - Netflix | Team Tinkoff | Moser - Sygic | | 3 | T-Mobile | Grieg - Maersk | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | 4 | Team Tinkoff | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | Team Puma - SAP | | 5 | Podium Ambition | Evonik - ELKO | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | 6 | eBuddy | T-Mobile | Gazelle | | 7 | Aegon - Lavazza | Podium Ambition | Repsol - Netflix | | 8 | Bennelong - Mitchelton | Generali | Isostar - LimeBike | | 9 | SPAR - Siam Cement | Gazelle | Air France - KLM | | 10 | Generali | Air France - KLM | Festina - OAKA |
| HL | SR | SP | TT | CO | CL | | Aegon - Lavazza | 9 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 14 | | Air France - KLM | 1 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 9 | | Aker - MOT | 21 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 12 | | Bennelong - Mitchelton | 10 | 6 | 17 | 8 | 22 | 5 | | EA Vesuvio | 11 | 13 | 9 | 19 | 21 | 13 | | eBuddy | 15 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 11 | | Evonik - ELKO | 5 | 21 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 16 | | Fablok - Bank BGZ | 2 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 15 | | Farfetch Pro Cycling | 12 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 3 | | Festina - OAKA | 14 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 10 | | Gazelle | 17 | 3 | 22 | 15 | 9 | 6 | | Generali | 13 | 15 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 19 | | Grieg - Maersk | 22 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 21 | | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | 6 | 20 | 8 | 21 | 4 | 18 | | Isostar - LimeBike | 3 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 8 | | Moser - Sygic | 8 | 10 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 2 | | Podium Ambition | 20 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 22 | | Repsol - Netflix | 19 | 12 | 19 | 2 | 11 | 7 | | SPAR - Siam Cement | 7 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 17 | | Team Puma - SAP | 16 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 4 | | Team Tinkoff | 18 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 20 | | T-Mobile | 4 | 16 | 21 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
Overall Prediction
| 1 | Moser - Sygic | | 2 | Isostar - LimeBike | | 3 | Air France - KLM | | 4 | T-Mobile | | 5 | Festina - OAKA | | 6 | eBuddy | | 7 | Team Puma - SAP | | 8 | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | 9 | SPAR - Siam Cement | | 10 | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | 11 | Evonik - ELKO | | 12 | Grieg - Maersk | | 13 | Aegon - Lavazza | | 14 | Team Tinkoff | | 15 | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | 16 | Aker - MOT | | 17 | Gazelle | | 18 | Repsol - Netflix | | 19 | Generali | | 20 | EA Vesuvio | | 21 | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | 22 | Podium Ambition |
Well once again Moser are predicted to win, and that is the case for all four of the sub-rankings. Can they do it this time?
Isostar a close 2nd, with Air France and T-Mobile next, having also been highly tipped last season.
The Top 8 teams all almost consistently predicted to be in the Top 10. Puma were underestimated last year and could be again, with Festina, eBuddy and Bennelong are all predicted much higher than they were last season.
After that, there's really not a lot to separate the rest of the teams in the overall prediction. 9th to 17th in particular.
That leaves 5 teams, including Vesuvio  Underestimated last year, and safe in the R4 rankings though, so let's see! Podium Ambition the only team not given too much hope, with Fablok, Generali and Repsol in the mix but all with at least one prediction placing them higher.
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | … | OP | | | 1 | MOS | MOS | MOS | MOS | | MOS | Moser - Sygic | | 2 | TMO | TMO | ISO | ISO | | ISO | Isostar - LimeBike | | 3 | ISO | ISO | AIR | AIR | | AIR | Air France - KLM | | 4 | FES | AIR | FES | FES | | TMO | T-Mobile | | 5 | AIR | BEN | TMO | EBU | | FES | Festina - OAKA | | 6 | EBU | FES | EBU | SPA | | EBU | eBuddy | | 7 | PUM | GRI | TIN | PUM | | PUM | Team Puma - SAP | | 8 | BEN | PUM | SPA | TMO | | BEN | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | 9 | FAR | GAZ | BEN | AEG | | SPA | SPAR - Siam Cement | | 10 | GRI | EBU | EVO | IND | | FAR | Farfetch Pro Cycling | | 11 | REP | EVO | PUM | FAR | | EVO | Evonik - ELKO | | 12 | AKE | AKE | IND | BEN | | GRI | Grieg - Maersk | | 13 | GAZ | FAR | AEG | EVO | | AEG | Aegon - Lavazza | | 14 | AEG | REP | GRI | AKE | | TIN | Team Tinkoff | | 15 | TIN | TIN | GEN | VES | | IND | Indosat Ooredoo - ANZ | | 16 | EVO | IND | GAZ | FAB | | AKE | Aker - MOT | | 17 | IND | AEG | FAR | TIN | | GAZ | Gazelle | | 18 | SPA | SPA | AKE | GEN | | REP | Repsol - Netflix | | 19 | POD | POD | VES | GRI | | GEN | Generali | | 20 | GEN | GEN | REP | REP | | VES | EA Vesuvio | | 21 | VES | VES | FAB | GAZ | | FAB | Fablok - Bank BGZ | | 22 | FAB | FAB | POD | POD | | POD | Podium Ambition |
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 26-10-2019 13:03
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 17833
Joined: 12-05-2012
PCM$: 0.00
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Is it bad i'm happy we're not predicted 23rd? Yes, i agree we're that bad a team I'd take two 19th predictions very happily, anything other than last is an absolute win this season.
It's interesting to see the various per-terrain breakdowns. We have a heavy focus on the flat stuff, you never know it could pay off if teams steal enough points off each other as they go uphill...
And yes, Moser i agree a strong #1 option with Isostar on the podium, although Air France have done well off your ranking as i think they'll be a lot more mid-table.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 07-12-2025 21:36
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 26-10-2019 15:25
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Team Leader
Posts: 6178
Joined: 20-07-2008
PCM$: 200.00
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It would be great to see Moser finally winning the title. Will it be this year?
I'm interested to see where Festina and Puma end up. Both had extremely good campaigns last season and especially Puma with having to let go of Kelderman should have a lot of attention.
Nice to see some newly promoted teams breaking into the virtual top10.
On the other hand seeing EA in relegation zone is quite bizarre.
Thanks for the preview SN!
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 26-10-2019 17:06
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 27880
Joined: 20-10-2006
PCM$: 200.00
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I'd be very happy to just be in top-10 after missing out on an entire transfer window - so it's quite exciting to see Air France that high in the projections. Should be a fun season! |
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| matt17br |
Posted on 26-10-2019 19:38
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 10519
Joined: 28-09-2013
PCM$: 200.00
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Completely expected and unsurprsing to see my team in the relegation spots according to this prediction: I don't see myself having an easy PT debut at all with my team likely fluctuating in the second half of the table for the whole length of the season, and moreover this model tends to be unfavourable to deep teams anyway so it's never loved my team and never will I guess
Spoiler I know why that is, but I respectfully disagree with our 10th place in the TT rankings btw 
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| sgdanny |
Posted on 26-10-2019 22:50
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3587
Joined: 18-03-2014
PCM$: 200.00
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We were never going to be able to really make a mid-table with how the transfer season panned out. Hopefully Ponzi can replicate last season and then it's really in the hands of keeping our pprd high with random stage wins and such. Gonna definitely predict we're gonna relegate, so I'm happy we can still use this season to prepare for the future
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| knockout |
Posted on 27-10-2019 10:10
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8236
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
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Interesting that we are that much lower compared to last year. Dropping to 5th in each of the good categories isnt a good sign for things to come but im fairly confident that the top 10 will be rather close and that i may beat one or two teams above us.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 27-10-2019 10:20
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Team Leader
Posts: 5948
Joined: 30-11-2006
PCM$: 2200.00
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Waiting for the lightly Mathematical CT Preview 2019 got me like..
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| ember |
Posted on 27-10-2019 10:32
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Team Leader
Posts: 7059
Joined: 27-03-2008
PCM$: 900.00
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Thank you for doing this, SN!
Happy to see my team in the bunch placed from 9th to 17th. Any spot there will be good, seeing how the transfer season played out.
Feels like everyone can agree Moser starts the season as the big favourite. In hindsight, seeing all the puncheur training, they might have been better off with Hirt or Barguil to 83 mountain, but then again, if Sagan can step up and be consistent in the top 6, including a couple of wins along the way, it's difficult to see them beaten.
Isostar and Puma feels like the closest challengers at the very top. Expect that both will need to win a GT to take the crown, or at least challenge for the title, which they could very well do, seeing what Spilak and Herklotz should be capable to do. |
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| jph27 |
Posted on 27-10-2019 11:14
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Team Leader
Posts: 7374
Joined: 20-03-2010
PCM$: 900.00
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I'll be shocked if we finish in the top 10 - my most ambitious prediction for us is 15th, and that's if everything goes right. Most likely we're in the 15th to 20th range I think, so perhaps R3 will be right |
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| SotD |
Posted on 28-10-2019 07:26
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
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Top 5 would be very nice for us - I don't think we will manage it this time around though. Coquard is the big questionsmark obviously, but I doubt he and Koretzky will be as effective in PCM18.
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| Heine |
Posted on 30-10-2019 10:28
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4470
Joined: 08-04-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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The version that puts me worst this year was the best last year... Thats scary :-p
Quite happy with the predictions here for my team, better than I felt myself... I think this will be a very tight division this season
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| roturn |
Posted on 30-10-2019 10:34
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Team Manager
Posts: 22043
Joined: 24-11-2007
PCM$: 3900.00
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Festina and Moser for me the clear podium teams. Great depth and leaders.
Air France, Evonik, Puma, Isostar the teams that all could win theoretically but more likely fight for the remaining podium spot and top5.
Other than those 6 teams, I am sure one team will surprise and move into that top3-5 area as well.
In the relegation zone really difficult this season except for 1-2 teams. Other than those basically any team could land between 10th and 20th. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 30-10-2019 11:13
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8236
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
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roturn wrote:
Air France, Evonik, Puma, Isostar the teams that all could win theoretically but more likely fight for the remaining podium spot and top5.
Now that is a hot take
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| roturn |
Posted on 30-10-2019 11:38
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Team Manager
Posts: 22043
Joined: 24-11-2007
PCM$: 3900.00
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To be fair, your team basically is the one, that might get a podium but more likely maximum top5, while the other three could also win the division beating Moser/Festina, which I highly doubt for you. 
So yes, while I rate your team quite high, likely the lowest chances of those 6 teams. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 30-10-2019 13:42
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8236
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
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That sounds much more realistic to me. Id say 3.-5. Is the best case while 10th-12th should be worst case for me. But the title is too far away this year for sure.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Roman |
Posted on 03-11-2019 23:02
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4279
Joined: 29-05-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Thanks for doing this again SN. Have to say the expectations can't really go any higher after a prediction like this. And well honestly I really hope this could finally be my year. Don't really know how I can possibly improve my current team around Bewley, so this is likely now or never with Bewley declining in a year.
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