24 hours are left until the MG month of September starts. And if you aren't thrilled about that already, hopefully you will be after reading this preview. As tomorrow Paris-Tours will be ridden!
One of the biggest classics on the C2HC calendar, Paris-Tours is mostly known as a sprinter classic. And a quick look at the profile confirms that this may be the best way to approach this race. However, its length (233.9 kilometers) as well as a few annoying speedbumps near the finish line also makes this race very prone to late attacks. And they can certainly be successful too: Both the very first (Ricco) and last (Kneisky) editions were won by late attacks!
Favourites
SP
ACC
HIL
STA
SP
ACC
HIL
STA
Guarnieri
82
81
66
77
Mezgec
79
77
67
73
Van Heerden
82
73
68
74
Von Hoff
79
77
66
71
Guillén
81
82
61
66
Colbrelli
79
75
61
74
Carsi
80
82
55
66
Wippert
78
82
67
75
Manninen
80
80
66
71
Modolo
78
81
73
75
Keukeleire
80
79
70
73
Kreder
78
80
70
72
Nizzolo
80
79
64
70
Liepins
78
79
66
73
Vanoverschelde
80
75
62
74
Boev
78
78
65
74
Coutinho
79
80
65
75
Krasnov
78
77
63
72
Matthews
79
79
64
72
Angarita
78
77
62
71
With the unpredictability of late attacks however, most eyes during the race will be on the very best sprinters of the Continental Tour, which have already met each other quite a few times this season. Not a single rider has completely dominated those sprints, though Guarnieri had had the most success and is also the best overall sprinter on paper. Therefore, he can be regarded as a favourite.
Then on the list of favourites are three sprinters that are each (respectfully) handicapped in some way. Van Heerden famously lacks acceleration and will have to hope for a short sprint. Carsi and Guillén struggle to get themself in a good position and may also not be entirely fresh after 233 bumpy kilometres. Specially those two should perform worse than this list predicts.
More hopeful should be Manninen, Keukeleire, Nizzolo and Vanoverschelde, the other “80” sprinters here today. Especially Manninen and Keukeleire have a very balance skillset and should be able to challenge Guarnieri for the win. Nizzolo and Vanoverschelde might have some more trouble to get over the hills, though Vanoverschelde's stamina could help him a little.
Outsiders for this race are Coutinho and Matthews, who both are very decent sprinters but might lack the top speed to annoy the top favourites. On the right part of the list we see riders who should only be aiming for a top 5-result at best. Modolo and Kreder (if Guarnieri has a bad day) might benefit from a hard day and could overperform, though.
Potential Late Attackers
FL
HIL
ACC
FL
HIL
ACC
Mundle
79
65
69
Van Wyk
76
63
68
Ratto
79
60
73
Katrasnik
76
61
68
Kluge
78
68
75
Quispe
76
51
70
Quicibal
78
68
66
Van Poppel
75
67
78
Van der Haar
77
72
70
Zhupa
75
67
68
Aaltio
77
68
61
Yzeiraj
75
65
68
Kangangi
76
73
65
Verbist
75
62
64
And as already announced, there's always a chance for a late attack to stay ahead of the peloton. It's hard to predict who will try so, as many of the strongers riders of the flat will be blocked by having to lead out their sprinter. Not taking this into account, espcially Van der Haar and Kangangi look dangerous due to their punch. However, riders like Mundle, Ratto, Kluge and Quicibal and many more may show up and decide to give it all or nothing in the finale.
Last goal of the season (besides team standings). Need a top 5 here!
Lengthwise the race should suit Guarnieri well, but of course, he hasn't really delivered in C2 or C2HC races this season, so we'll see. I hope we have a strong enough team to control things, but of course it's always hard to predict how Paris - Tours will pan out.
I decided to take a risk for this one and leave my sprinters at home and bring guys to try and steal the win with a late attack/ guys with good stamina to try and make sure we definitely have someone in the final group as I want convinced my sprinters had the stamina for it and wanted to see what Mundle could do with Andrew role and no sprinter to work for.
I’ll take second, but not at all happy with the team performance. We have the by far best sprinter on paper, yet we’re not relaying in the peleton, and we’re not giving him a lead-out. I don’t get it.
Paris-Tours
