The Contininetal circus is heading for Cyprus, where the Tour of Cyprus will be held for the first time: this new event on the calendar certainly features an interesting mix of stages - starting with a flat stage, a partly hilly, partly flat cobbled stage, continuining with a challenging mountain stage and concluding with a hilly stage! It should be a thrilling event for all riders involved and it's definitely hard to say, whether the cobbles or the mountains will have a bigger impact on the final GC here.
Well, where to begin? The mix of different terrains makes it a race tough to predict and it's really hard to say, for which approach the different specialists will go here. Let's go by categories first:
Climbers Several strong climbers could not resist to try their luck in this new race. Obviously, we should mention those climbers first, who do know how to ride cobbles at times: Roglic, König, Kwiatkowski, Medvedev and Liphongyu as the best cobblers amongst those mountain goats. It certainly depends on how hard the cobbles stage will be raced, but given the amount of cobbles, you can definitely lose big big minutes before you hit the mountain stage. The mentioned riders may limit the losses though and that's quite an advantage on other premium climbers here.
Cobblers It's a stacked field of cobbles specialists and the reason should be clear: with the cobbles raced prior to the mountains, it's at least a great chance to take the leader shirt (and of course a stage win) for one day. Given the rather undulating profile of the stage, riders like Vanspeybrouck, Zepuntke, Theuns, Van Keirsbulck or David may fancy their chances to achieve a notable result. But of course you have to consider Blythe, Zepuntke, Burghardt, Nolf and maybe also Thomas (who's enjoying a great season on flat cobbles) as possible contenders for this second stage.
Vanspeybrouck, Burghardt, Theuns or Kasperkiewicz as those, who actually handle mountains in a way, that may allow them to fight for a notable GC result eventually. At least, they should distance several other cobblers on the Mt Olympus stage.
Puncheurs The mix of stages may suit cobblers and climbers better, but of course there's also a challenging hilly stage concluding the tour: Dowsett, Juul-Jensen, Pellaud or Rabottini as the most promising "non-climbers" here - with guys like Kwiatkowski, Roglic and Bennett not only amongst the better climbers, but also the puncheurs.
Hybrids So we should consider those guys as the GC favorites, shouldn't we? As already mentioned, Kwiatkowski, König, Roglic or Liphongyu come with solid allround skills. Given the importance of the mountain stage, those climbers look quite promising for the GC here.
Also Juul-Jensen comes with a nice package, being one of only a few riders with 70+ in the three needed main stats: just like Marzuki, Riesebeek and Andersson! Also Grashev comes with an interesting combination of climbing and cobbles and so does Stybar (though not on the same level), who could be a thrilling asset for his Becherovka amateur's squad!
The Sprinters
Favorites
HI
SP
AC
Outsiders
HI
SP
AC
Guerao
65
83
76
Suryadi
62
79
76
Thorsen
54
82
85
Tewelde
64
78
77
Appollonio
66
81
78
Nepomnyachsniy
64
78
76
Kip
56
80
82
Jørgensen
59
78
73
Lavoine
60
80
78
Alaphilippe
73
77
77
Meyer
62
80
76
Cimolai
66
77
77
Boivin
70
79
80
Planckaert
65
77
77
Rowe
66
79
80
Jaser
66
77
75
And let's not forget to talk about sprinters, who also do have a chance to go for a stage win on the opening day: Guerao and Appollonio as the top favorites. They do lack the acceleration in comparison to some other promising sprinters here, but both should benefit from their superior sprint skills. For Thorsen, this 190km stage may just be too much, but he's been solid here and then and will definitely try to stay in the mix until the end.
The same goes for Kip then. Lavoine, Meyer, Boivin, Rowe, Tewelde and Jorgensen as other possible contenders for the first stage. Outsider's chances for Alaphilippe, Planckaert or Jaser.
I love this profile so much, just looks set for an amazing race!
Really couldn't resist brining Kwiat here, if it goes to the climbers it could be him up against Roglic for the win but it could always go to the cobblers so it's risky. I do think the amount of time that can be lost in the mountains is huge compared the fact that a cobbled day could be more passive though.
Interesting to see what Kaspa does here too, I really just thought of him as good support for Kwiat but kinda wondering if he could push for a top 20 if the race goes a certain way, though we really haven't seen our lower tier guys compete for depth points so far this year.
Generalli wins this of course, either Roglic or Theuns, probably a 1-2. I want to see Bennett do well for Xero as well!
Thanks as well for the fittingly awesome preview tsmoha, super psyched for this race!
I didn't come simply cause it would be a waste of race days really, I'm in love with the profile and there are so many possible outcomes that this is set to be one of the best races of the season I'm sure. Rooting for a Grashev win, I'd really like to see a pure hybrid take this one home
Well this is a big one for Kwiato and Roglic. Laughable startlist in terms of climbers, whoever didn't bring their lower tier 81-82 climber threw away a win here. Cobbles won't have a lot of impact imo, climbers will decide the race.
After last year's flop in Benelux (favourite Schoonbroodt getting blocked by my puncheurs), I decided to pretty much only send Riesebeek here. I hope he will do well in the GC.
Scary race though as Netia and Xero might score well, so honestly I'm going to focus on the relegation contenders more than my own team.
Brilliant race though, and I'm hoping for more gimmicky races in the future. Thanks tsmoha
Oh man, this is probably our most stacked lineup ever. Garby, JJ, VSB, Nolf, Appo all here. We went all out. Not sure why we did that, but we did.
That means that we have a favorite for every stage of the race, which I like. A lot of contingency plans. GC wise, I have no idea what that looks like. It could destroy my GC chances completely with lack of a real leader. I guess my hope is that everyone does as well as they can on the stages that suit them and that shakes up to the best guy for the course in the top GC places for us. My inclination says that's Juul-Jensen, but with the hilly stage being the last one, not sure he'll get the chance. We'll see. Also, Appo needs to top 3 in that sprint stage or we just wasted another race for him.
In any case, I'm super excited for this one. Awesome preview!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Yay here it is, what a profile We brought many prongs to the race in Rowe, Debesay and Bennett as well as some great all-around domestiques - Jams, Areruya, MTK, Ngamoki and Davison. The startlist of climbers is way too strong for my liking, as is some of the hybrid skills of other guys that aren't Debesay.
If Debesay can make the front group on the cobbles and the main group behind the top puncheurs on the hills then do his best in the mountains, hope he can do well. But I think this may go the climbers, so a shame Bennett is swamped a little more than expected for the top5.
But really just looking forward to seeing how this goes, can't wait
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Went with the cobbles squad + Sarmiento. Didn't want to risk Úran here. I hope we can make the race on the cobble stage as hard as possible and put some of the climbers at great distance. Wonder how the AI will treat this race.
Definitely expect this one to be one for the climbers, really, where the cobble stage will see some of the climbers miss out, but most stay with the bunch, similar to what has happened in ToNE and other races where a cobble stage is mixed with other types of stages.
But definitely looking forward to see how it goes. I fancy Kwiatkowski if the hilly stage proves selective, as his brilliant puncheur abilities should see him able to gap other climbers. Though, obviously he needs to stay with them on the mountain, but he has proven before he's able to climb better than the average 78 climber.
F*ck knows how this will play out. But by bringing a cobbles focused team we're limiting our overall season losses, no potential wasted days for a bigger GC/Puncher rider and our cobblers always have more days than pave to ride. We have to compete on Stage 2 and being outside the Top5 there has to be considered a poor result.
Between Burghardt and Grashev i do have some hope of an overall solid result. Not thinking we'll get the win but sneaking into the Top10 could be doable with a splash of luck. Manage that and sneak a stage win would be brilliant, but either/or will suit me plenty.
F*ck knows how this will play out. But by bringing a cobbles focused team we're limiting our overall season losses, no potential wasted days for a bigger GC/Puncher rider and our cobblers always have more days than pave to ride. We have to compete on Stage 2 and being outside the Top5 there has to be considered a poor result.
Between Burghardt and Grashev i do have some hope of an overall solid result. Not thinking we'll get the win but sneaking into the Top10 could be doable with a splash of luck. Manage that and sneak a stage win would be brilliant, but either/or will suit me plenty.
The most awaited race of the season for me, screw GTs. This will hopefully be the best race of the year. Sent a leader for every stage so who the fuck knows how this will go. Hoping for some good points for sure.
Seeing that König was one of the climbers most skilled on cobbles I just had to send him here as I expect the mountain stage to be decisive but the cobbled stage will see many miss out I hope.
Decided not to bring any real cobbles for the risk of them doing well and then blocking König/making König work for Kulppi on the cobbled, which would be silly but absolutely plausible with AI.
Interesting to see Omarsson among the top hybrids even, doubt he'll do much though as the mountain stage should be much to tough for him.
Thanks Appo. Really needed that fricking intermediate sprint point. Very important. more important than paying attention to the stage finish even. Thanks.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Tour of Cyprus
