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Slightly Mathematical PT Preview 2018
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 14-08-2018 14:09
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Team Manager
Posts: 31706
Joined: 08-03-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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Format Reminder
- Riders each receive a rating based on their skills in six categories (Hill, Stage Race. Sprint, TT, Cobbles, Climbs), as also used in the OVL calculations
- Riders within a within-team ranking for each category, which is adjusted to account for realism, and reduce the influence of the strongest riders where appropriate.
- Weighted team ratings for each category calculated, based on the selected three best riders in each team for that category
- Resulting category rankings and scores are then used in four different ways, to create four division ranking lists
- These are combined into an overall division prediction.
It's not a method without it's issues, but the formulas are in place, and it doesn't take too much work to update them - so let's see what they've come up with.
Category Rankings
| Hills | Stage Races | Sprints | | 1 | Hugo Boss | T-Mobile | Aegon - Lavazza | | 2 | Air France - KLM | Isostar Slovenija | Moser - Sygic | | 3 | Isostar Slovenija | Berg Cycles | Evonik - ELKO | | 4 | Evonik - ELKO | Gazelle | Festina - Dexia | | 5 | Grieg - Eftel | EA Vesuvio | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | 6 | T-Mobile | Team UBS | Aker - MOT | | 7 | Team Puma - SAP | RBC Pro Cycling | eBuddy | | 8 | Bennelong - Mitchelton | Team Puma - SAP | Hugo Boss | | 9 | Aegon - Lavazza | Desigual | Air France - KLM | | 10 | Aker - MOT | Team Tinkoff | Team Puma - SAP |
| Time Trial | Cobbles | Climbs | | 1 | T-Mobile | Moser - Sygic | T-Mobile | | 2 | RBC Pro Cycling | Team Tinkoff | Moser - Sygic | | 3 | Team Tinkoff | RBC Pro Cycling | Porto - Prio | | 4 | Bennelong - Mitchelton | Evonik - ELKO | Team Puma - SAP | | 5 | EA Vesuvio | Grieg - Eftel | EA Vesuvio | | 6 | Desigual | Aker - MOT | Berg Cycles | | 7 | Aker - MOT | Volvo acc. by Spotify | Team UBS | | 8 | Team UBS | Gazelle | Gazelle | | 9 | Team Puma - SAP | Desigual | Hugo Boss | | 10 | Berg Cycles | Air France - KLM | Volvo acc. by Spotify |
| | HL | SR | SP | TT | CO | CL |  | Aegon - Lavazza | 9 | 21 | 1 | 14 | 18 | 15 |  | Air France - KLM | 2 | 11 | 9 | 17 | 10 | 11 |  | Aker - MOT | 10 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 12 |  | Bennelong - Mitchelton | 8 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 19 | 16 |  | Berg Cycles | 18 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 6 |  | Desigual | 20 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 20 |  | EA Vesuvio | 15 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 16 | 5 |  | eBuddy | 17 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 13 |  | Evonik - ELKO | 4 | 22 | 3 | 22 | 4 | 22 |  | Festina - Dexia | 16 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 14 |  | Gazelle | 14 | 4 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 8 |  | Grieg - Eftel | 5 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 18 |  | Hugo Boss | 1 | 20 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 9 |  | Isostar Slovenija | 3 | 2 | 15 | 21 | 14 | 19 |  | Moser - Sygic | 11 | 12 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 2 |  | Porto - Prio | 12 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 22 | 3 |  | RBC Pro Cycling | 22 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 21 |  | Team Puma - SAP | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 4 |  | Team Tinkoff | 21 | 10 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 17 |  | Team UBS | 13 | 6 | 20 | 8 | 15 | 7 |  | T-Mobile | 6 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 20 | 1 |  | Volvo acc. by Spotify | 19 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 7 | 10 |
Overall Prediction
| 1 | | Moser - Sygic | | 2 | | T-Mobile | | 3 | | Evonik - ELKO | | 4 | | Air France - KLM | | 5 | | Aker - MOT | | 6 | | Team Puma - SAP | | 7 | | Hugo Boss | | 8 | | RBC Pro Cycling | | 9 | | Gazelle | | 10 | | EA Vesuvio | | 11 | | Isostar Slovenija | | 12 | | Team Tinkoff | | 13 | | Festina - Dexia | | 14 | | Team UBS | | 15 | | Desigual | | 16 | | Grieg - Eftel | | 17 | | Aegon - Lavazza | | 18 | | Volvo acc. by Spotify | | 19 | | eBuddy | | 20 | | Berg Cycles | | 21 | | Bennelong - Mitchelton | | 22 | | Porto - Prio |
Certainly there are some surprising positions in there, with teams that subjectively I would place higher, and others lower, but I therefore think it's quite interesting to have this posted as is.
Moser and T-Mobile are found to be the two strongest teams, with Moser predicted for the title. Evonik completing the podium, with Air France comfortably the top promoting team.
Festina placed in 13th, with Aegon surprisingly down in 17th - and long-term PT squads eBuddy and Bennelong both in the bottom 5, and actually only one newly-promoted team relegating, Berg Cyles.
Of the four rankings used to construct this final table, I would probably say that I expect R4 to be closest to the truth. And certainly looking at the second half of the table, that does see Aegon and eBuddy higher, while Tinkoff, UBS and Desigual are lower.
9 teams were placed in the Top 5 for at least one of the four predictions, while as many as 11 teams feature in the Bottom 5 in at least one of them.
| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | … | OP | | 1 | | | | | | | | 2 | | | | | | | | 3 | | | | | | | | 4 | | | | | | | | 5 | | | | | | | | 6 | | | | | | | | 7 | | | | | | | | 8 | | | | | | | | 9 | | | | | | | | 10 | | | | | | | | 11 | | | | | | | | 12 | | | | | | | | 13 | | | | | | | | 14 | | | | | | | | 15 | | | | | | | | 16 | | | | | | | | 17 | | | | | | | | 18 | | | | | | | | 19 | | | | | | | | 20 | | | | | | | | 21 | | | | | | | | 22 | | | | | | |
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| Heine |
Posted on 14-08-2018 14:31
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4467
Joined: 08-04-2007
PCM$: 200.00
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I wont complain, even though I prefer round 1 and 2 personally...
Great to see my team rated really well in the categories I went for and comparably really bad in the other categories, makes me wonder if I should just have went for more climbers or time trialers instead of Docker/Selig/Soupe...
I will be really happy if we end up top 2, I will not be able to keep this team together next season, so a great result this year would make me really happy. A lot depends on how Rein does it in his races, if he looses in a random bad daily form or Spilak beats him in everything in TDF I could fall down the standings quickly
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| roturn |
Posted on 14-08-2018 14:48
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Team Manager
Posts: 22043
Joined: 24-11-2007
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There is some bug in it.  Hopefully my team is doing better than just surviving.
Guess e.g. race days are not a part of formulas, hence someone like Bewley looking good statwise but it ignores that he is limited?
Also when seeing De Bie, I hope to be better than 9th in hills to be honest. Guess the lacking depth (77/75/74/74) which isn`t too bad neither, makes the team that far down, while De Bie alone clearly is better than probably 3-4 others. In fact I have some hopes that he is right behind the 3 big puncheurs and on a similar level as Sagan even. |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 14-08-2018 14:53
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 11786
Joined: 19-07-2010
PCM$: 300.00
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Looking at the Giro startlist, I'm starting to believe that such a scenario as written here ain't too unrealistic anymore 
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 14-08-2018 16:02
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 27880
Joined: 20-10-2006
PCM$: 200.00
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I can promise you that Air France won't be anywhere near top 4  But thanks for doing this again - always enjoy the previews. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 14-08-2018 17:19
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8236
Joined: 21-12-2010
PCM$: 500.00
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And there my record of beating every single prediction for four years (if my memory doesnt fail me) ends
Slightly less variance between the four different subrankings for more polarized teams like tmobile or Evonik - have you made any bigger changes to them?
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 14-08-2018 17:44
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Team Manager
Posts: 31706
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Well most notable is that last year's R3 - which had Evonik relegating - has been dropped. It was clearly less accurate than R4/R5, where the values of the worst teams in each category were increased. So it got dropped, while R1 and R2 have been adjusted to account for that too. Those two only look at the category rankings, and now treat anything worse than 18th as 18th.
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| SotD |
Posted on 14-08-2018 20:40
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
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I certainly hope for better than 13th, but everything depends on how well Coquard work.
I’d like to Think we can land a low end top 10 result.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 14-08-2018 21:35
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World Champion
Posts: 13561
Joined: 05-08-2008
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| Shonak |
Posted on 14-08-2018 23:17
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15579
Joined: 16-07-2013
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Isostar coming into PT, already smashing the place before any racing started.
Looks like this year could be quite a thrilling fight.. but then again as soon as bewley amd sagan rack up the wins, its over
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 15-08-2018 09:24
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Team Leader
Posts: 6177
Joined: 20-07-2008
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How savage!
Very much a possibility for us this year, especially with the Giro (and clashing races) probably meaning a blunder for our planning.
Interesting to me is that Tinkoff, who everyone is predicting to relegate, floating around 8-12 in 3/4 of the simulations.
Thanks for doing this again SN, it's always interesting data!
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 06-12-2025 22:39
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| viking90 |
Posted on 15-08-2018 09:32
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3836
Joined: 24-01-2009
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Would never guess we are ranked 18 in Stage Race, two decent leaders and some solid helpers. But we really miss a great leader there with higher mountain stat.
Another preview where we are close or even relegated, no surprise there actually. |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 15-08-2018 09:54
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R4 does indeed place Festina in low Top 10; eBuddy as a bit higher up; and Tinkoff in relegation - so certainly meets the subjective views more.
viking90 wrote:
Would never guess we are ranked 18 in Stage Race, two decent leaders and some solid helpers. But we really miss a great leader there with higher mountain stat.
Another preview where we are close or even relegated, no surprise there actually.
Yes, the strength of the leader is key - and while stage race is much more than just mountains, the fact is that Aegon and Evonik are the only PT teams without an 81+ Mountain rider.
Having the two decent leaders does show through more in the Climbs rankings though, since the best riders will be listed as best team rider for Stage Race, and then only 2nd or 3rd for Climbs - thus getting a lower weighting for that category.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 16-08-2018 13:27
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World Champion
Posts: 10616
Joined: 29-10-2007
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The grimmest of outlooks for Puma so far, in particular when R4 looks the most to your liking.
R3 looks downright horrible for us in comparison to the average prediction across the different previews, with f.ex. Desigual ahead of us despite being consistently worse in the respective categories besides COB.
But then again, I haven't selected a Top 5 rankings goal out of a strong conviction but rather to get some financial leeway in the Blythe sale, so not entirely reaching that would not be a disappointment.
6th would surely mean an enjoyable season again, 9th wouldn't be awful either unless it really would mean ending up behind Festina yet again..
We'll see if maths are indeed the solution this time around, thanks for compiling this! (and for apparently fixing our microshirt)
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| ember |
Posted on 16-08-2018 20:39
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Team Leader
Posts: 7058
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Thank you for doing this again, SN!
Very interesting to see what the numbers predict. Also think they're quite good looking at the prediction, as I think they've got both the winner and most teams in the bottom half correct. Of course there's the odd exception, like Air France and I think eBuddy too will do quite a lot better than this prediction, but all in all, it looks pretty good.
Fingers crossed 5th place or thereabout will prove correct on my team, that would make me happy with the season, no doubts about it |
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