Original idea from Croatia, the place for people who want to predict the PT but don't have the time to actually justify their decisions with words. Feel free to bomb this thread with predictions!Edited by trekbmc on 13-08-2018 13:38
So nice to finally see a PT where the winner is not >90% sure Basically the first time in 3 seasons but feels even longer. So is it Moser that are favourites this year? IMHO, they are. They should be able to score around as many points as last year thanks to the new arrivals that seem to almost compensate for the riders they lost during the off-season, and considering they scored a lot more than pretty much everyone except for the now weaker Festina, I think this should be their year. Bewley is Bewley, Sagan has proven to be a monster last year - might score a bit less this year seeing some great puncheurs back in PT, then the mountain duo of Hirt and Barguil that is gonna be even better in the future I guarantee with both looking like perfect riders for a couple years of training. They lost some of their core but I feel like their top riders should be enough to secure a title.
Aker also got quite a bit stronger, but coming from a disappointing 2017 from basically all their riders, I don't feel confident in putting them above Moser. Their depth is incredible, easily the best in PT, but of course they lack that top 25 in points rider most teams seem to have at least one of. Beltran to 81 could be huge, but in reality he shouldn't be much higher than someone like Gastauer and the likes. Trentin could improve on his solid 2017 with GVA declining, then the mountains core should also score around the same as last year and as well as this a new great sprinting train will yield them quite a few points.
T-Mobile is a difficult one. Taaramae is supposed to score 2.5k+ and I don't see him not doing it this time around with no crashes to compromise his season. TVG is an awesome signing guaranteed something around the top 30 in scoring, Fiedler will be a top time trialist for another few seasons - but he doesn't have a great TT support cast behind him which means the team won't hope to win races like Copenaghen, but besides these riders they don't have a lot of depth. Their leaders are good enough to imo have them on the podium but I don't see them winning it all for at least another year.
Evonik and Puma, very similar teams and therefore very close in quality. I'm narrowly giving the edge to Puma because while I believe Van Stayen could eclipse his own 2017 scoring and Demare's 2018 is going to be closer to his most recent points total, Herklotz is going to slay already even before he gets that sweet 84 or 85 mo, which should be enough for Puma to compensate the difference in quality between Skujins and Kelderman, and the lack of a GVA - who despite his decline will likely still podium most cobbled races. Then of course Evonik is a team with not lots of riders, while Puma's 2nd-3rd tier riders depth looks slightly better. Make no mistake, I think these are still teams that could fight for the title with some luck, but I simply feel like Puma has the higher ceiling if their depth riders perform well - and if Herklotz 'surprises' some currently better rated riders.
Teams I ranked between Vesuvio and Aegon are pretty much interchangeable really. All of them are deep teams with at least one huge leader, except the not that deep Hugo Boss that however has 4 basically guaranteed top 50 riders with 2 of them that were top 10 - doubt that both Ponzi and Alarcon will have as good of a season though. I'm putting Vesuvio the highest because except for Schleck's decline, I don't see any of their riders scoring much less than last year, while there's one in particular, Van der Lijke, that should definitely score 5x+ more than his awful 2017. This is still a team that finished 4th last year, and their core looks just as good as the past seasons really. Festina basically changed completely losing their best two riders and replacing them with mostly domestiques. While there's basically no way they podium this time around, they still have a team good enough for the lower top 10.
Gazelle, Isostar and Aegon are all very close in quality imo, the former not making huge shake-ups, mostly just swapping Koren for Teunissen, that should improve the Slovenian's points tally slightly, but then also seeing a huge rider in Ginanni declining for the first time and therefore losing a few important points. Isostar is easily the best looking newly promoted team after a busy transfer window, but despite Spilak, a trained Kump - who has 2 or 3 riders that are his clones but better, the solid but not exceptional Mohoric, they're not looking at more than a high-midtable finish for this year. Polanc is good but has a lot more riders ahead of him in PT compared to PCT where he did shine, and after him the list of big scorers is basically over. Don't see them finishing in the top 5, but could get close with some luck for sure.
Aegon has trained two of their most important riders, but this feels more like a transition season for them since they're probably looking at whether De Bie improves a lot or not before making their next moves based on this. They lost Keizer, saw Dekker decline some more, Boom have his first decline as well - though that won't hurt him I feel - and added some domestiques to make up for that point loss. They finished 5th last year with 500 points on the next team thanks to some great scoring by their 2nd tier riders, but a lot of the teams below them improved enough to overtake them in this year's ranking I think.
Should still be enough to keep teams like eBuddy and Grieg behind, both squads that are good enough to avoid relegation in my books and both in very different situations. eBuddy lost Gesink and added the much younger Dombrowski but didn't have the money to take him to the next step, while they decided to improve their sprinting core instead. Grieg added some great - but old - leaders and trained the fantastic Wisniowski but don't have a lot of riders to support Boeckmans who will be forced to jump from wheel to wheel. Still a good enough team to survive imo, but the next offseason will be tough for them. I see Air France slightly behind them. By adding EBH and keeping their core together they may be looking good, but underperforming riders such as Kamyshev and Quintana almost cost them promotion last year and will cost them a place in the top 10 this time.
In danger of relegation could be UBS, RBC and Bennelong, which slightly unrelated but I can't help but refer to as Jayco. The latter should be able to survive thanks to their good TT depth - and also pretty nice leaders - while UBS and RBC, despite the former also having a TTT team of comparable strength to Bennelong, will bank on their leaders not to disappoint a lot more. Granted: when it comes to UBS, Trofimov declined but is still extremely solid, Amador is still a potential GT podiumer, but the riders behind them are what differentiate them from a top 10 team to a relegation contender. Same goes for RBC: not a lot behind Phinney and Summerhill. Houle would be great with +2 in SP but would still have 4 riders of similar calibre ahead of him, in the current situation he's just not good enough to podium races.
Anyway, all these teams should be able to survive because imo below them there's a marked drop in overall quality. Volvo has a few top 50-tier scorers but if last year they barely survived this might not be the case again this time around, even with Stallaert getting trained a bunch and Ahlstrand having less sprinters ahead of him. Wellens and Abal are also likely not going to perform as well as they did. If they do, however, they do have a shot at surviving. Berg has one great scorer in Gesink and one solid one in Cattaneo, but one issue with it is that they're both good at the same things - well what differentiates them is that Cattaneo sucks at hills - and also that their leaders in other categories are no more than average. Machado declining will hurt Porto a lot because PCM seemed to treat him very well thanks to his 84 in MO. Now there's a lot more riders ahead of him, and his backups are notoriously not that good. The addition of Intxuasti should make up for that though. Claeys is also nice but far from the best puncheurs in the division, and might hurt them more than they realise with my rider crush Borges probably being better than him. Avelino looks nice but he disappointed last year.
Last two teams are in my opinion, and unfortunately, locks for relegation. I don't see any scenario where a team whose best AVG rider is constantly underperforming survives really. Zabel also is not good enough for leading a PT train to regular top 5s and Maksimov is not exactly a solid sprinter, the cobbles might just be their best speciality with Altur who is decent - not great - and Tsatevich who is a rider I'd love on my own team - not sure what his calendar will be though and doubt he does all the cobbled events when he's also their hilly leader - with 77. That leaves a solid TTT train but to be real, their PCT team might have had as many chances to survive as their current squad, maybe more. Tinkoff got unlucky during renewals - I assume? - and again during the transfer window with all their targets getting hella expensive. Kritskiy is basically Tenorio, Senechal is one of the best cobblers in the division and will score more with a weaker GVA, but the rest of the team would likely be midtable in PCT. Don't see them surviving either.
Welp, this became a wall of text, I enjoyed writing it though and didn't take longer than 1/1.5h so I'm still gonna classify it as lazy . Hard to predict this year's PT but I can definitely identify 3 or 4 different tiers of teams, which at least makes it slightly less tedious to rank them. Again, those points in the table don't matter much.
Edited by matt17br on 17-08-2018 14:32
Nice write-up Matt and i believe you you've got most teams in a similar position as i would have put them. I'm quite surprised though that i'm suddenly predicted so high this season after years of being predicted too low despite my best rider declining and losing my 2nd best (non hybrid) puncheur (Siskevicius), my 2nd best climber (Koch), my 2nd best cobbler (Taubel), my 2nd best leadout man (Dakteris) and of course my best TTist (Mathis :redface with mostly weaker replacements
5th would be amazing although being directly behind Puma would suck
1. T-Mobile
Taaramae, Fiedler and TvG are more than enough reasons to paint the calendar with high-profile pink victories throughout the season. Cobbles are a miss and sprints won't get them much either, but that's little to take the title away from them imo.
2. Moser - Sygic
Bewley and Sagan inc. could well be labeled no.1 candidates as well, but having one less safe big-point-scorer will turn the table in disfavour of Roman's legion.
3. Hugo Boss
After a superb first season in the PT the best smelling team of the division comes back to try and reclaim the title. With everyone's nightmare Alarcon and WC Ponzi at the steering wheel they are sure to spread havoc. Lastly the addition of Kristoff makes them season champion candidates.
4. Team Puma - SAP
Herklotz leads a concrete solid GC squad which will definitely pay its dividends. Kelderman and Demare are going to amass strong results, while Sutterlin and the massive depth of the team will keep the ball moving through the season.
5. Evonik - ELKO
Evonik is actually a very cleverly-designed team. MvS, GvA and Skujins are threats in favourites in any race they enter (except for Volta a Portugal that is). Elsewhere they have some of the most succulent lieutenants, whom are all bound to look for breakaways, given how terrible they are in TTs.
6. EA Vesuvio
The gamer volcanoes are perennial candidates to a PT top5. Their Schleck dependence has been handled very carefully with the last twin starting his decline this year. With Gastauer and van der Lijke as leaders for the hills and flats they are a safe bet for a top10 at least. Kittel should score better than last year and there's even Keinath! All eyes are on Bakari, though!
7. Aker - MOT
The norwegians are probably one of the most difficult to label. While they have lots of depth and will likely be competitive in every race they enter, their multiple (and I mean multiple) leaders will at times only be top10 contenders. They should be title contenders next year though if they can manage to train one of those numerous leaders.
8. RBC Pro Cycling
Well Phinney is half a team in itself. Add Sumerhill into the mix and you have a serious issue to contend with. They have lots of depth too but lack a third man that could send them into title contention.
9. Bennelong - Mitchelton
The non-oceaniac intolerant aussies have doubled-down on their Morton craze. Their GC man should score a lot more than last year with his training, especially now he won't need his training wheels. Bobridge and Howard are the other leaders and should be very reliable as should their TTT squads.
10. Isostar Slovenija
The radioactive slovenes are one of the best promoted teams. Spilak should shine in a dream move to a home team in the PT. There's also Mohoric and Kump and an interesting hill depth. Polanc could provide some results too, but there's no support there. Going to follow them thoroughly this year.
11. Gazelle
The antHILLopes have decided to keep their frustrating leader Madrazo who gets another chance to perform. They also keep their trademark hills strength with Ginnani as their star. Teunissen is a nice addition, but the dutch has only Kruijswijk and Potts for support. They should end mid-table but could diversify to challenge for the title in the future.
12. Air France - KLM
The french aviators have an interesting setup and could experience widely different outcomes depending on their leaders actually performing to their manager's expectations. Eddy Boss is almost enough to avoid relegation. Then you have Sicard with some climbing support. Kennaugh and Kamishev could perform to bring them up to 11th, but they could well finish 5 places lower.
13. eBuddy
Dombo replaces Gesink in an astute move to compensate for the aging dutch. Grosu takes centre role was well and then you have Howson, van Poppel and Boswell to make up for the rest of the race days. The trio of Aru, Brambilla and Majka should keep haunting GT contending teams.
14. Festina - Dexia
The PT champions have taken this season to adjust their clocks. Despite being represented in every terrain they will struggle to achieve last year's result. Lecuisinier, Vlatos and especially Coquard are still solid leaders, but sprints are arguably the least lucrative terrain. Koretzy and Daniel should sweep top10-15s too, but yeah a very different team.
15. Grieg – Eftel
The nordics are back in the top tier. They have ditched EBH for archnemesis Bakelants. The rest of their leaders aren’t top notch but Martin’s HIL and ACC stats work in his favour and Mr. All-in-one will provide strong results.
16. Team UBS
The Swiss are led by their eternal leader Amador. They have snatched Troffitruffles who despite decaying is still an impressive rider. Spengler, Reichenbach and Reihnardt are good semi-leaders, but the bulk of the points is going to rely in the former. Relegation shouldn’t be an issue.
17. Aegon – Lavazza
The cafeine-powered insurance agentes have become sprint specialists with Groenewegen and especially Swift at the point of the spear. De Bie a strong rider in the hills too. Olivier and Dekker aren’t going to be world beaters though. Should the sprints become more volatile they could face a tough season. There’s always Boom to win TONE though!
18. Team Tinkoff
The russians have experienced an unusual active off-season. While Kristskiy continues, Trofimov's departure hasn't been properly accounted for. Senechal and Sibilla add another dimension and their TTT depth is still there, but they to have lost more than they have gained.
19. Berg Cycles
Berg add to the tally of portuguese PT teams which could well reach 0 next season. They have brought MG-legend Gesink and Cattaneo who had an impressive 2017 season. Both could score great but their unique set of stats needs careful planning to make them shine. They have a good number of semi-leaders, which I don't think will score incredibly well. Else they could escape relegation.
20. Desigual
Desigual have promoted solely to re-ignite their rivalry with Porto - Prio. Hence their reconnection with Spain. Apart from Tenorio you have Altur, who's become a serious cobbles rider, then Zabel and the manager's secret little affair Maksimov. Nibali, Fraile and Nelson 'El Pesetero' Oliveira can't make up for the flaws of the rest of the team. Tenorio could face a second relegation in a row.
21. Porto - Prio
The chauvinistic portuguese team manager must have taken a generous swoop of Port wine when making this squad. Climbing prowess is abundant, but then it's hard to be excited about anyone else. And even their climbers aren't going to win much - besides Volta a Portugal, obviously. Relegation will be hard to avoid.
Also, OMG can you train Borges please!?
22. Volvo acc. by Spotify
Like the previous side the swedes haven't managed to add much winning potential to their roster, despite having a good range of (semi) leaders. In all honesty it's hard to see Ahlstrand have a weaker season than 2017 and Stallaert has become rather good. Abal and Wellens though don't excite me as much, hence why I think Volvo is only going to slow down Spotify
21. Porto - Prio
The chauvinistic portuguese team manager must have taken a generous swoop of Port wine when making this squad. Climbing prowess is abundant, but then it's hard to be excited about anyone else. And even their climbers aren't going to win much - besides Volta a Portugal, obviously. Relegation will be hard to avoid. Also, OMG can you train Borges please!?
This did make me laugh out loud Think 8th is a bit high for us myself though it's so tight in the mid-table it may just take one or two surprise results and that could happen for sure
Loving Gustavo's high rating for us, even though we really would need some great results from Bobridge and Morton to go that high in the rankings. The Giro startlist is worrying though and I tend to believe those other predictions, that see us fighting against relegation, may be spot on eventually. But hey, a surprisingly strong season is always possible if everything goes right.
14th might be about right, but boy would I feel uncomfortable being that close to relegation. I really hope for a good start, so I can ease a bit until the Giro where I will hopefully bounce into the top 10 and stay there for a while atleast.
SotD wrote:
14th might be about right, but boy would I feel uncomfortable being that close to relegation. I really hope for a good start, so I can ease a bit until the Giro where I will hopefully bounce into the top 10 and stay there for a while atleast.
Well, I`d say you are in a luxury position in comparison to me.
PT level just totally raised this year in depth.
SotD wrote:
14th might be about right, but boy would I feel uncomfortable being that close to relegation. I really hope for a good start, so I can ease a bit until the Giro where I will hopefully bounce into the top 10 and stay there for a while atleast.
Well, I`d say you are in a luxury position in comparison to me.
PT level just totally raised this year in depth.
Not much imo. The points I'll score from cobbles is minimal compared to you. Maybe 300 points more (due to you being significantly better in TONE).
Your sprinters are better than mine, your puncheur is better than mine and you have better depth in GC riders. I think you have an overall better team to be honest. I think it's fair to assume that your GC riders will outscore Lecuisinier, Chamorro and Vasyliv by quite some.
SotD wrote:
14th might be about right, but boy would I feel uncomfortable being that close to relegation. I really hope for a good start, so I can ease a bit until the Giro where I will hopefully bounce into the top 10 and stay there for a while atleast.
Well, I`d say you are in a luxury position in comparison to me.
PT level just totally raised this year in depth.
Not much imo. The points I'll score from cobbles is minimal compared to you. Maybe 300 points more (due to you being significantly better in TONE).
Your sprinters are better than mine, your puncheur is better than mine and you have better depth in GC riders. I think you have an overall better team to be honest. I think it's fair to assume that your GC riders will outscore Lecuisinier, Chamorro and Vasyliv by quite some.
Well, as long as both of us remain ahead of bottom 5, I guess all can be marked as "sabbath year".
Basically the first time in 3 seasons but feels even longer. So is it Moser that are favourites this year? IMHO, they are. They should be able to score around as many points as last year thanks to the new arrivals that seem to almost compensate for the riders they lost during the off-season, and considering they scored a lot more than pretty much everyone except for the now weaker Festina, I think this should be their year. Bewley is Bewley, Sagan has proven to be a monster last year - might score a bit less this year seeing some great puncheurs back in PT, then the mountain duo of Hirt and Barguil that is gonna be even better in the future I guarantee with both looking like perfect riders for a couple years of training. They lost some of their core but I feel like their top riders should be enough to secure a title.
with mostly weaker replacements 
Think 8th is a bit high for us myself though it's so tight in the mid-table it may just take one or two surprise results and that could happen for sure 
