Rank	Team	Pts
1	Valio - DeLaval	9
2	ENI - MOL	11
	GCN ProTeam	11
	Rothaus - Aegon	11
5	BNZ Cycling Team	12
	Team Cerveceria Costa Rica	12
7	Delvaux	13
8	Andorra Project - InGamba	14
9	Campari - Super Dry	15
	Oberfranken	15
	Swisslion Cycling Team	15
12	Equinor Pro Cycling	16
	Sauber Petronas Racing	16
14	Banco de Bogota	17
	Compal-Merida	17
16	Adastra - Argon 18	18
17	DK Žalgiris	21
	Eddie Stobart	21
19	Telia-Brussels Airlines	22

1	Valio - DeLaval	19
2	Compal-Merida	25,5
3	GCN ProTeam	26
4	Rothaus - Aegon	26,75
5	Team Cerveceria Costa Rica	29,5
6	Swisslion Cycling Team	30,5
7	ENI - MOL	30,75
8	Campari - Super Dry	31,5
9	Sauber Petronas Racing	34,25
10	Delvaux	35
11	Andorra Project - InGamba	39,5
12	BNZ Cycling Team	40,5
13	Banco de Bogota	42
14	Telia-Brussels Airlines	45,5
15	Eddie Stobart	46
16	Oberfranken	47,5
17	Adastra - Argon 18	50,5
18	Equinor Pro Cycling	52
19	DK Žalgiris	58,5

		Leader	Terrain	Overall
1	Valio - DeLaval	1	1	1
2	GCN ProTeam	2	3	2,5
3	Rothaus - Aegon	2	4	3
4	ENI - MOL	2	7	4,5
5	Team Cerveceria Costa Rica	5	5	5
6	Swisslion Cycling Team	9	6	7,5
7	Compal-Merida	14	2	8
8	BNZ Cycling Team	5	12	8,5
9	Campari - Super Dry	9	8	8,5
10	Delvaux	7	10	8,5
11	Andorra Project - InGamba	8	11	9,5
12	Sauber Petronas Racing	12	9	10,5
13	Oberfranken	9	16	12,5
14	Banco de Bogota	14	13	13,5
15	Equinor Pro Cycling	12	18	15
16	Eddie Stobart	17	15	16
17	Adastra - Argon 18	16	17	16,5
18	Telia-Brussels Airlines	19	14	16,5
19	DK Žalgiris	17	19	18

Methodology:
Scoring potential for the teams 4 strongest riders have been evaluated and scored on a 1-10 scale where 1 is best in the division and 10 is without a chance.

Detailed numbers will not be revealed and most teams could move one or two points to either side if I did the same tomorrow.

The team is dominated by Panayatov and Bardet, who both looks like they will be fighting for scraps all season.
They do have a decent sprinter an half-decent TT'er that can step up and take points if they sometimes avoid the big names.

Points: 18

Both Kiserlovski and Warbasse should score well in the stage races and the team even has one of the best TT'ers.
After that it pretty much ends

Points: 14

Here we have an amazing team if you add some leaders on top.
Sepulveda is an interesting rider, but the climbers seem to weak to be able to get the top results needed and no other terrains will cntribute significantly either

Points: 17

Carsi and Von Hoff will serve the team well, but will be hard to get the most out of as they can't get much seperate support.
Edmondson is an interesting rider, but can't be expected to deliver regular top results, but should always be there about.

Points: 12

A very strong puncher in Ben Nasser and a very strong cobbler in Drucker sees the team likely to get a lot of top 5's in classics while the wins could be far in between.
Neither the climbing nor the sprint leaders should deliver huge amounts of points.

Points: 15

Suaza could be a great asset despite his one-sidedness, while Zaini seems a ibt too one-sided to get the biggest points.
Matthews will likely have a hard time getting into the points on stages unless he manages to go where the big names are not. Should be able to fight for top 10's in flat classics though.

Points: 17

A great sprint team with amazing support.
Breen could do well on the cobbles and Kadri could be a good stage hunter, but.

Points: 13

A strong nationality focus can have its price and DK Žalgiris is paying it in a complete lack of top leaders but great depth.
Siskevicius could be the one to upset the order on several occasions and in flat stage races with some TT'ing Kruopis should have a chance to do well.
The rest is likely to take part in races as well.

Points: 17

If planned well Travis Meyer could be a beast.
Thorsen however won't deliver to often due to his awful backup leaving Cimolai as likely being the 2nd best scoring option (which isn't too good).

Points: 21

If Di Maggio doesn't deliver they have a solid back-up option in Serry.
Pomoshnikov and Vanoverschelde should be good for some fine points as well.

Points: 11

Methodology:
Scoring potential for the teams 4 strongest riders have been evaluated and scored on a 1-10 scale where 1 is best in the division and 10 is without a chance.

Detailed numbers will not be revealed and most teams could move one or two points to either side if I did the same tomorrow.

If Di Maggio doesn't deliver they have a solid back-up option in Serry.
Pomoshnikov and Vanoverschelde should be good for some fine points as well.

Points: 11

The top riders all have great back-up stats. The big problem is that they haven't really got the main stats to be backed up.
Sadly this is a batch of leaders that needs to celebrate each top 5 like a win to be able to keep up the spirit throughout the season.
They do have every chance to get a bunch of top 10's that could see them still ending up with a decent score.

Points: 16

A good all-round team with no big leader, but no big gaps either and some good depth that should serve them well.
Should be able to score almost everywhere.

Points: 11

Ratiy is one of the best climbers/stage races in the division, which really has to carry this team.
Van Poppel has some great back-up stats for the stage races, but he should have a very hard time really mixing in for the sprints.

Points: 15

A peculiar sprint team with a main sprinter without acceleration and a bunch of leadoutmen with huge accelerations.
The question is if they will help Van Herden och make him blow up. Neverthless being able to field a decent sprinter in every race should see them with a lot of good stage results.
Outside the sprints it's mainly cobbles and to some extent TT'ing that should save them.

Points: 11

They have a great sprinter in Salleh and a decent cobbler in Taubel and the team to support them.
Apart from those it's hard to see where the big points should come from though.

Points: 16

Reus can be great, but can also end up with a lot of unresolved possibilities depending on how his races pan out. Nevertheless relying on a TT'er is always a risky move due to their low number of chances.
Zhupa is a nice options for the cobbles, but also very alone.
Guillén is a beast if he somehow manages to actually be there to contest a sprint, which likely won't happpen often.

Points: 15

Actuall a pretty well-rounded team. One of the best cobblers in the division, decent puncher in Teuns, decent climber in Cstagli and decent sprinter in Colbrelli.
Only Kluge can be expected to battle for wins though.

Points: 12

There is a lot of pressure on Nizzolo even though he isn't expected to be able to do much against the many top sprinters of the division.
Hacecký has the skillset to do well on some mountanous stages if the big climbing teams decide to let him go.

Points: 22

Away goes all objectivity (I have tried being objective though, time will tell how well I've managed...).
Gautier is one of the best punchers in the division, König and Manninen strong challengers to the very best and Kulppi likely to be in the top 10 in a bunch of cobbled classics.

Points: 9

Sykkel_Freak wrote:
Nicely done. Will be interesting to see the full ranking prediction

In terms of my own team, I think 7th is a very realistic prediction. No doubt there's a lot of teams with similar quality this season, so I wouldn't be surprised if we ended there or even a bit lower, even though I'm hoping to finish slightly higher.

sammyt93 wrote:
I know this is just leader scoring being rated but I do feel like you have missed our TT strength as the description doesn't mention it at all. Having the joint best pure TT rider and such a strength in prologues should net us some solid points.

I'd almost go as far as predicting roughly 150 to 200 points for Gabby which should make him one of our 4 leaders, if not he is definitely the wildcard that should make us outperform your prediction as he is capable of competing with he PCT's best, not just dominating CT, even if it is in a specialisation that is rare to find.

Methodology:
Teams have been ranked separately on each terrain based on a subjective evaluation of leader strength and team depth.

Teams that are deemed without any viable options are given the average rank of the remaining spots.

These will then be combined to a final Terrain ranking where TT's and the worst other terrain are weighted half as pure TT'ers doesn't get as many chances as others and that it's only possibly to ignore a terrain half. If ignoring more than one it will either lead to more races with no leader or more C1 races, which usually has less scoring for CT teams.

The top of the field when it comes to climbers/stage racers seem very close with Kiserlovski and Ratiy looking the two strongest leaders.
Kiserlovski should have the advantage due to being more well-rounded while Oberfranken looks to have a slightly better back-up.

Below them it's very close but I have put GCN Pro Team and Compal-Merida on equal footing but both Pinot and Suaza could be threatened by better allrounders in many stage races.

Of the 79-climbing leaders I'd put Pomoshnikov on a slight disadvantage compared to König, Costagli and Anacona due to quite one-sided support tam without much depth.
Anaconas chosen style of racing which won't see him attack even if chased by a bear makes it doubtful whether he'll deliver. Banco de Bogota do have some great depth but thee big question is how they will handle the race strategy.

Despite some weak backups for Di Maggio ENI - MOL has some great hilly depth which earnes them the spot as the best team for the hills.
Close to Di Maggio in the fight for top puncher of the division is Gautier (I could be biased here). The Frenchman has some good backup stats and both the acceleration and fighting spirit to decide things. He doesn't have that one lietenant who will be there for the finale though.
If things come to a sprint Travis Meyer is your man and if planned well he could be worth a lot to Eddie Stobart.

Ben Nasser has a good sprint and strong back-up stats as well, which bring his team to 4th ranked hilly team despite Compal having some great depth.

Guarnieri is the standout top sprinter and has the team to back him up, which makes for a clear first plae for Delvaux in the sprinters ranking.
Van Heerden has a great sprint but needs a mile or so to get up in speed. Luckily for him he has a great leadout man for the job in Coutinho - unless the portuguese just jumps away and ruins it all, but I'll give Rothaus the benefit of the doubt. Could either be a dominating duo or complete failure.

While Thorsen and Guillén have great sprints they have equally great trouble actually making it to the finish line with the bunch so they will have a hard time delivering.
BNZ has a strong duo in Carsi and Von Hoff, who could help them get some very good results along the season.
Again I might be biased but Manninen is a great new name among the top sprinters, good backups and even a strong prologue which could help him snatch up a few GC points even. Having a leadout man capable of taking podium finishes in GT sprint while unmaxed last year as well as some more strong support on the flat doesn't hurt either.

Sallehs support team makes him slightly outedge Keukeleire, who again looks better than the rest thanks to a decent cobble-stats that could make him a contender in some races/stages with very easy cobbles.

For me Ricardo Ferreira stands out as the top cobbler. Solid back-up stats, decent sprint, decent hill. Not the best support squad though.
Below him Kluge is a rider, who thanks to massive flat stat and a very good print is likely to outperform his cobbles-stat a bit and will see him fight for the win more often than not.
Similar but slightly weaker we have Breen, Zhupa and Drucker.
Zhupa and Drucker look very alone on their teams though, which seems them lose out to the great depth of Sauber in the ranking.

With 3 of the 6 best TT'ers of the division obviously Swisslion has to take the top spot here.
Andorra has on of the top TT'ers as well as some good depth that sees them to 2nd place.

For the remaining a combination of backup stats for GC options and TTT-depth have been considered.

For the combined Terrain Score I have reduced the value of the teams worst terrain by 2 as it is only possible to half ignore a terrain due to it's C2HC presence.
If ignoring more than one terrain you need to pick a lot of C1 races where competition is tougher thus I have only discounted on terrain.

TT-impact have also been reduced to half since pure TT'ers have less chances than others. TT-ers with good GC chances will generally have impacted other rankings.

As I expect the final result to be somewhere in between the two models I have also made a final overall prediction based on the average finishing position of the teams.

		Leader	Terrain	Overall
1	Valio - DeLaval	1	1	1
2	GCN ProTeam	2	3	2,5
3	Rothaus - Aegon	2	4	3
4	ENI - MOL	2	7	4,5
5	Team Cerveceria Costa Rica	5	5	5
6	Swisslion Cycling Team	9	6	7,5
7	Compal-Merida	14	2	8
8	BNZ Cycling Team	5	12	8,5
9	Campari - Super Dry	9	8	8,5
10	Delvaux	7	10	8,5
11	Andorra Project - InGamba	8	11	9,5
12	Sauber Petronas Racing	12	9	10,5
13	Oberfranken	9	16	12,5
14	Banco de Bogota	14	13	13,5
15	Equinor Pro Cycling	12	18	15
16	Eddie Stobart	17	15	16
17	Adastra - Argon 18	16	17	16,5
18	Telia-Brussels Airlines	19	14	16,5
19	DK Žalgiris	17	19	18

As can be seen in the numbers I expect a fairly close CT this season. Honestly I'm a bit surprised as to how clearly the model predicts my team to win - I do think the title battle will be closer but I hope the team can live up to my predictions (Guess I have to finally accept favourite status when my own calculations re like this).

What do you think about it all?