First of all this preview will fail big anyway and is actually less a prediction with riders out, riders in, look at depth and talents.
It`s more a quick overview over each PT team checking the 5 terrains (mountain, hill, TT, sprint, cobble) and their chances on those.
As it`s written A-Z and not finished yet, there is no other way to go that direction, hence here you go with the first couple teams.
It`s a simple, less graphical overview, hence you need to get the DB aside if you want to see the exact team stats if you don`t know them already.
Air France - KLM
***** Hill *** Mountain *** Sprint ** Cobble ** Time trial
The big star is coming new into the team from the FA market. Probably well spent 1.27mio for Boasson Hagen is giving them one of top Hill 5 star rating. The skillset of perfect hill, great flat, decent sprint and also not that bad on longer climbs and against the clock. Boasson Hagen is simply a machine and should be a big threat for the Ardennes and all hilly stage races.
Going to the next rating. No 4 stars but twice with 3 stars rated are the climbers and sprinters. Sicard is the elader already for some time and could become a consistent top5 finisher. Good on long climbs even though lacking to the very best. Therefore also above average on hilly stages and a good time trial in his repertoire. He is joined by Quintana, who basically is a bit weaker in all terrains but still a potential top10-15 rider in the PT events while the support is decent in Koch, Salinas and Rosch.
Top sprinter is Kennaugh, who uses to underperform unfortunately for no reason at all. Great sprint, great on the flat and still not as good as the very best and often not performing as good as similar riders. Still a solid points scorer I think and in Clarke and Lutsyshyn having some solid support.
2 stars for cobbles despite having a 82 cobbler with high flat. Reason is simple. Kamyshev loves the steady pace but hates accelerations and hence is missign a lot of moves, which is dangerous in the classics, when coming back is difficult. Also when coming to the finish in a group, he regularly will finish last.
Time Trial also with 2 stars. Sicard as mentioned will profit from it but other than that they have Kwok, Bernaudeu and Andersen. That`s on paper not really weak but in TT events they will struggle to get a top 10 very often and for a TTT they also miss a bit depth.
Aker - MOT
**** Sprint *** Mountain *** Hill *** Cobble *** Time trial
A very interesting team with strong 80+ riders in all terrains and also with good depth and good allrounding.
Starting with their strongest part, which imo is the sprints. 3 riders above 81 is impressive with some solid leadouts as well. Their star is on paper Ciolek with highest sprint and highest flat. Though also a regular underperformer and no 1st tier sprinter in the PT. Vesely and Enger though both add as great leadout or to cover all races with a 81+ sprinter. Great point scoring potential hence and with Scully, Dakteris and others good support.
Mountains got a 3 star rating, even though their best is only 81. But Guldhammer has shown to challenge the best and might be in for couple of top10 results while also Galta did okay last year despiting missing the kick a bit. And then they have Beltran as well, who is a combo climber with the potential to challenge in races, others won`t like.
And with Beltran we start also the hills as he got some nice training, which makes them their top puncheur. And as said, in especially on hard hill races, he should do well e.g. Hallstatt Classic or couple of stage races. With Vakoc he has a fantastic support, who might be able to grab a top10 here and there himself while the depth in the whole team is impressive.
3 stars also for the cobbles and it was close to 4 even as Trentin is a great allrounder. Not only good on the paves, also a solid sprinter and good over hills. Should regular score big with some surprise results on the upper side and maybe a podium in some big events. The support is good with 2-3 riders with him late in the race.
And also the TT strength is getting 3 stars, hence nowhere really a weakness. Paillot is their main rider, who might get a solid result here and there. Coming from the CT to PT is a big step forward though, but he knows riding on the highest lever already from before. The next riders are not as good as him but it`s a solid TTT team for Guldhammer and Galta.
Bennelong - Mitchelton
**** Hill **** Time trial *** Mountain ** Sprint * Cobble
On a first look the team changed a bit from last year and is moving towards a climbing/puncheur squad mainly.
Their best strength are the hills as no other than Bobridge is their leader, a top3 rider in stage races combining hills and a TT and a potential top3-5 rider in the classics. Support is okay with riders such as Watson or Lane, but nothing that impressive to give them another star.
Time Trial was their key in all seasons basically. It still is with 8 riders over 77 and some more 75/76. But they lack the big star they had in the past as their 80+ riders all left. TTT wise still one of the strongest lineups and hence a team to potentially defend their Copenhagen - Malmo crown.
Morton is young and he developed year for year and last year also had a fantastic GT, which he should be able to repeat this year. Some podiums and many top5 results wouldn`t surprise me.
Behind he has decent support. Haig with some top15 results himself while Dyball and Smith are solid riders as support. Solid but no incredible.
Sprint down to 2 stars despite Howard being a potential top5 sprinter here and there. But he is not as strong as the top sprinters and most important he lacks support. The team better not doing any leadouts and hope for a good wheel on his own.
Even worse for the cobbles. One single rider above 70 and then only a 74 Edmondson, who is a nice rider to have though being also a decent sprinter. But big points would be a surprise, in especially as the next best is just a mid 60 rider and most are below 60 even.
**** Mountain *** Hill *** Time Trial ** Sprint 0* Cobble
Another promoted team with huge changes this offseason. In especially the new leaders will face the team but will it be enough to go down again?
Their two transfers are both stage racers and hence the mountain strength is key for them and is getting 4 stars. Gesink was a long term eBuddy rider and should have ended his career with them really. Though the former GT winner is having his last huge season with Berg now and he combines as many important 80`s as no other probably. The combination mountain/hill/TT is impressive and should see him again in the podium fight in GTs and win area for all other stage races. Only his acceleration could be better. Cattaneo is similar but without the hill skills. In a suited GT he might still finish close to top5-10. A great duo to have and then a row of mountain domestiques to support them at least until the final climb.
The hill area is getting 3 points as their best Gesink has limited race days and might spend them on mainly mountaineous races. Though mixing it here and there and giving less than 3 stars would have been cruel. Vogt hoopefully is only a support rider. Won`t score really as leader in the PT, not even in PCT. Paulinho was imo the best puncheur last year but he struggled behind Vogt just like McEvoy. Point Scoring in comparison to his wage Vogt was good but surely those two could have gotten more without him. In the PT they might lack a lot though.
Next up TTs also with 3 stars. Gesink the one reason, Van Winden the other. Both might score decent in TT events. But also Cattaneo and Balloni are good with some semi decent riders for TTTs to avoid big losses there.
Their top sprinter Kupfernagel had a huge 2016 but struggled last season and should again do so on PT level. The better bet is Silvestre, who has the bigger engine but also missing the speed then. Support is small and hence can`t expect a lot from them.
Well more than from their cobblers. Their best is Gesink! At 66 and he won`t ride any cobbles most likely. Hence the not planned 0* were needed here.
Desigual
**** Mountain *** Time Trial *** Sprint *** Cobble ** Hill
Back in Pro Tour for Desigual, former Newton, former CSC. Though completely different without Van Garderen as their main rider.
The long mountains are their biggest strength, that said hope is on mainly Tenorio, probably THE rider that underperformed the most in last couple seasons. A potential GT winner, who even struggles to get into the top10 every time. Great climbing, great TT skills and okay on hills and not even that bad acc...still underperforms. Co-Leading is veteran Nibali with still okay skills. Only his acc really hurts, always did while 3 support riders with solid backups are good to have.
A balanced team and hence lots of 3 stars now starting with TT. Tenorio is their best, Fraile not far off and neither is Oliveira. Not the big scorers in TT events only but with another 3-4 additions a solid TTT squad for the big tours or the Copenhagen Malmo event.
Also on the cobbles they have a solid rider. Young 25 year old Altur is a rare Spaniard, who likes the classics. Not the very best but good enough for solid results here and there. Support is minimum but at least Tsatsevich should be there with him for some time.
Maksimov as main sprinter always a gamble. Though he did well recently and I have a feeling he takes 2-3 wins this season and regular top5-8 rider in the classics. Zabel is the younger and more talented, though still missing a bit to the top class and hence more aiming top10`s then big points. Not the best riders for a leadout hence likely more focussing on other teams.
The hill squad might be one of the weakest in the division despite having couple of 75-77 range riders. But that`s basically breakaway material only and hence their hope to score on that terrain.
EA Vesuvio
**** Mountain *** Hill *** Time Trial *** Sprint * Cobble
A team with some changes to be made. Frank Schleck retired, his brother is on the way down. Time for the new generation.
That said, Andy still is the team leader and will still go for the GT and stage race wins. It`s just more difficult as Spilak and Taaramae should have passed him and also Dombrowski, Machado, Morton, Amador etc. are dangerous. At least Pluchkin in the PCT is helping them. Co-Leader Keinath is good for a top10 in GTs as shown. Minimum top15 and stage hunting is working as he is a perfect rider for this, while Goos also showed great potential as helper while Kirsch is likely the main worker only.
It was close to 4 stars actually as Gastauer can podium the big classics. Though he sometimes hides himself and underperforms. The support is not elite class but lots of mid level puncheurs, hence quantity is solid. Van der Lijke already interesting due to his combination of hill and sprint and hence MSR surely of big interest.
But first the TTT around Kittel. He is the pulling machine for TTTs and might even go for wins on stages or TT events, if it wasn`t against Phinney or Gesink. Jungels and co add to a solid TTT setup.
The team never was a sprinter team since the departure of Ben Swift. Though in Van der Lijke they have an interesting option on a nice age. That said, he must participate first, which was a problem in the past. Think it will be better in 2018 and with Afewerki and Reimer, he has good support even on harder stages, while both might surprise here and there themselves.
Coming to the cobbles and yes, I dare to give Bakari 1 star only. He will be a fun rider to watch but Schlechter is the one scoring the points (small ones though). A single top30 and Bakari`s signature was well worth it already though.
Edited by roturn on 12-08-2018 15:41
**** Mountain **** Sprint *** Hill *** Cobble ** Time Trial
Year 1 after the Gesink era. How will this end and how do they want to replace him?
Later is easy to say. Get a star out, get a star in and Dombrowski is definitely one. He already showed GT podium skills and sometimes was strongest even. When not meeting Spilak or Taaramae, he might actually win one this season. Less strong on the TT but a pure beast on the uphill. Brambilla surely is of great help, though also a rider to go for leadership in other GTs or stage races. Top15-20 and a stage win is solid for him while Aru and ;ajka are likely the main support climbers.
Their sprinters look big. Grosu got some nice skills over winter and is a top5 sprinter surely with the chance to win some stages or classics this year. In especially when having Van Poppel as leadout and there`s the likely problem. Grosu is good enough for a sprint train but only Van Poppel is good enough of giving him support and that`s 1-2 riders too less and also questionable if they race together a lot. Grosu on his own still a big threat but probably with less potential.
Hills or cobbles was close. In the end Boswell won the duel due to the bigger depth behind. Not the very best and a top10 already is a big success but a very aggressive rider that I like a lot and always enjoy going for longer attacks than other puncheurs.
Gerts is their top allrounder with skills on hills, cobbles and sprints. Also their likely leadout at times. The allround skills surely will see him getting some results this season and e.g. TONE is a good race for him, if his time trial was a bit better, he could win. Lampaert as 2nd cobbler mainly a support.
TT is okay but not more. Howson can surprise on a good day and Lammertink is a good TTT rider but behind them not a lot, which is probably not that bad as otherwise even Dombrowski would struggle to keep contact. Hence losing time in TTTs will happen.
Evonik - ELKO
**** Sprint **** Hill *** Cobble * Mountain 0* Time Trial
And interesting team with just 3 main top scorers with some serious lack in TT depth.
To be honest, first three terrains were really hard to rate and basically all could have been 3 stars or 4 stars. So see it as rather 3 1/2 for all.
Van Stayen got some nice training and now belongs to the best sprinters. Though the acceleration is below average while the hill skill addition is obviously best. Perfect for MSR and similar races but also a danger for a Qatar podium. The leadout is as usual great for him. Dzamastagic, a regular overperformer in hard races, Mansilla, Horton all are nice to have with Van Avermaet coming into play as well at times. Problem only is the limited race days for Van Stayen in comparison to pure sprinters.
Skujins is their hill leader in most races. His lack of TT skills make race planning easy. Hill yes, TT no and you have the perfect races for him. Smirnovs, Vosekalns, Sergis and co. will be there to support him pretty good. In some hill raecs Van Stayen will lead and hence even harder to plan him with 38rd. Expect him to cover lots of classics and just couple of stage races.
The cobbles were hard to rate as 3* feels to low with a rider such as Van Avermaet, who is one of the top3-5 cobblers. In especially with the allround skills on hills and sprint. But he is no Bewley and also at age 33 not as strong as in the past. Most important though the lack of support. Nooytens as main rider and likely only to survive until the final third.
Coming to the 2 terrains, that the team basically ignores. One is doable, two is risky. Vosekalns (who?) is the top guy! Only rider to maybe challenge for a top15 in GTs, more likely top 20-25. Sergis, Sakalou and Egger then for a top50. Tough stuff.
Even worse for TTs. Best is Becis and Mansilla at 69. Lowest in division or even the whole cycling world. Might become a 0 pointer in TTs for them and regular last in TTTs.
Festina - Dexia
***** Sprint *** Mountain *** Hill *** Cobble ** Time Trial
A hugely big change for the reigning champion with big stars Spilak and Coppel out and youth are taking over as their leaders are younger than 28 maximum.
5 stars in sprint is quite somethingbut with Coquard being trained to maybe the best sprinter or at least a top3 one, it`s well deserved. In addition Tzortzakis is back with the team and while decreased a bit, he still is more than solid and a great leadout in some races. Then a long list of Santos, Bar, Weber, Ackermann or Daniel. What a sprint train this will be in races such as Qatar or the Vuelta?
Even without Spolak the team is strong for the GTs. Though it`s all about Lecuisinier more or less. He is top5 GT material with great backups and one of the best in that young age. Question is if he is doing 1 or 2 GTs as this would mean all rd used already. The other riders Chamorro, Hugenhaben and Vasyliv are good but more or less support only on PT level. Chamorro at least can surprise here and there with a top15-20 or KoM hunting.
Koretzky is their man for the hill events and without Spilak might have more freedom in some of them. He has great stats but is lacking the 1-2 hill trainings for regular top results. A top5 here, a top10 there is likely the maximum this season. Hugenhaben is of great support but not a leader himself and hence won`t score a lot.
On the cobbles they changed from David to Daniel. This is more power in the classics and with his sprint might be able to get 1-2 top5s. More likely though ending between 5-10 most of the times, also as his support in Weber and Archimandritis is more or less average only.
TTs were difficult to rate as Vlatos is a rider to potentially top3 in any TT but he is basically the only one and likely the most important guy for Lecuisinier in the stage race TTTs. Other than that only Vasyliv and Hugenhaben have some strengths there...in general they will lose big time on any TTTs, which is not ideal for the French.
Edited by roturn on 13-08-2018 14:31
**** Mountain **** Hill *** Cobble *** Time Trial 0* Sprint
With Pluchkin out and Schleck on the decline. Will it be the year Madrazo is back in full form?
Let`s start with mountains as this is the obvious thing to do when having a 85 rated rider, right? Well in Madrazo`s case similar to former Santander team mate Tenorio, the number of underperformances is high. A lot higher than you would guess stat wise. If he can avoid Taaramae, Spilak, Dombrowski, he wins a GT though. Still better than Alarcon/Morton. No other rider can reach more than a top15 max in a GT or even normal stage races. Formolo/Kangert/Bibby when planned very good, might do something in longer and less contested PTHC races maybe.
I still rated their hill squad 4 stars but admit, it was a present as 3 stars would have been okay as well with Ginanni on the way down. But the Italian still with chances on big results while the depth is key here. Except for some excemptions basically everyone in this team can climb hills or even longer mountains. Though leading wise the hills will see more struggle than the mountains, hence Ginanni needs to cover most.
Cobble 3 stars also just three. Teunissen is good but due to missing acc and hill he is not as strong as the top5-7, hence will regularly land outside the top10 even. Potts and Kruiswijk are his only support, which is just okay. Later at least can top10 in TONE to score some extra points. Just like maybe Bibby or De Gendt even with notable results there.
TTs also just 3 stars. Their depth is impressive with a TTT train of minimum 73 and all but one above 75. Though they lack the top individual TT rider that scores in those stages. Just a TTT lineup really. Though most combine TT skills with other strength which never hurts.
Sprints. No. Best is Bibby says enough. They will miss a lot of points there and hence despite having awesome depth, the missing sprint points will drop them at least 5-7 positions in the ranking.
Grieg - Eftel
**** Hill *** Cobble *** Mountain ** Sprint ** Time Trial
Nicely balanced on the first view but where is Boasson Hagen and how do the new leaders work out?
Big news post renewals that their star Boasson Hagen and one of the top2 puncheurs in the game did not extend his contract. What was supposed to be a stunning chance in the PT right after promotion was in a gamble. However they got the 3rd best puncheur in Bakelants as nice replacement on excellent wage. He combines some mountains skills as well which make him interesting in many races. On 36 rd though unlikely he goes to a GT for stage hunting and GC points. The backup is average. Depth yes, but no top class support.
Wisniowski is their leader on the cobbles, which worked well in the PCT. Thogh while his package looks awesome being so close to a full 70+ stat line, the top stat of 80 is not as strong as the very best. He will still be around the 5th to 7th a lot as he might take many high positions of the small groups behind the very best, that went solo in front. Support in Ringheim and some others is good enough.
Also 3 stars for mountains as I like the addition of Martin, who shamefully had a off-year in 2017. Just like Bakelants in his last prime year but he is good enough to get a stage race win as previously shown. In GTs though more the top5-7 rider.
2 points for the sprinters. Boeckmans is good and might grab a win even but he is not the very best and has no solid leadout for him. Should still score a bit small points in many races that sum up.
Time Trials won`t be their favour. Was close to give 1 star but seeing the depth, it`s still good enough for a second. Only a TTT lineup but this one should be in the mid table area with some decent support riders for Martin.
Hugo Boss
***** Hill **** Mountain *** Sprint ** Time Trial * Cobble
A good squad in 2017 with nice additions and hence even better in 2018.
Let`s start with the hills. Ponzi is their star here and together with Boasson Hagen the best in the division. He will win at least one Ardennes and be up there in every race he starts. 5 stars in total as support is good in Slagter even for some races on his own on PTHC level and also Landa and Mudarra are solid.
4 stars in mountain due to Alarcon being still one of the best pure climbers and depending on the opposition in GTs he might grab another win or a podium at least. He just shouldn`t participate wherever the very best stage racers are with a better TT. Carapaz is their 2nd option and more a top15 or KoM rider. Still solid for another 2 GTs with Slagter, Ablenatdo being the support.
With Kristoff they got a big sprinter upgrade. Not the very best but a potential top5 on many stages gives them a lot more points than last year. Havik and Aberasturi to support him. He better not going to the Vuelta though as it`s most guaranteed 4-5 better sprinters there. When taking him to one of the other GTs, he should get 1-2 wins instead.
TTs with Salas deserve 2 stars but he won`t score a lot imo. He is one of the weaker 80 rated specialists but with Ligthard and Aramendia at least having some depth for TTTs.
Cobbles instead could have been 2 instead of 1 as Kristoff is solid with this sprint and also Havik as support has this combination. But 78 is not that much in the PT and with him being in many sprinter races, I doubt he can score a lot on cobbled races. He surely attempts in Roubaix or East Midlands, but just not sure about him there.
Edited by roturn on 14-08-2018 07:36
***** Mountain **** Hill *** Sprint * Cobble 1/2* Time Trial
A first time PT team with a all-time great and about to shake things up against veteran teams and it`s with 4 Sloveniens as leaders! Impressive.
A Slovenien team with the Nation`s superstar on the market? Well, obvious to go all-in on him and let`s be honest, even at 32 years he still is a beast for like 3 years minimum. It wouldn`t surprise me if he wins a GT which would make a great debut for the team in those kind of races. Only rider to beat him is imo Taaramae and hence both better don`t pick the same GT. Faiers is a nice rider with some GT history as well with ~top15-20 results and KoM hunting. Same can be expected by 35 year old veteran Ricco, who both will need to take over in the non Spilak races.
The hill area looking really good as well with 82 and 81 on paper and good depth behind them. Though Spilak is limited in rd and hence except for some races, Mohoric is their guy. His acc is great and hence a dangerous rider, who just needs 1-2 trainings to become a top puncheur. His age is on his side obviously. Pernsteiner and Kratochvila are nice riders as backup. Both with a good mo/hi combination. That said, from a personal view, later is imo the kind of guy for a CT team to lead just like Wyss and Bratashcuk. Hence for their own palmares they are in the wrong team.
Sprint and 3 stars was a close decision. Kump is a great sprinter and adds nice puncheur skills. Hence some kind of Demare/Van Stayen light and more like Van der Lijke, who is good but not that good. Will be interesting to see how he sprints against the big guys. Support is tiny and hence going down a star was my thinking at first.
The cobbles got only 1 star even though Polanc is having a nice stat line. Though only 78 is too less for the PT and his variability doesn`t help him in most races. Cyprus isn`t possible for him. He might do okay in the TONE though with a likely top10 as best cobble result I guess.
Last but not least the TTs. Spilak is best but only in stage racers with recovery coming to play. Faiers as only decent alongside him and then some low 70s. Not the kind of support team Spilak or Faiers would like for the TTTs and hence time loss guaranteed.
Moser - Sygic
***** Cobble *** Hill *** Sprint *** Mountain * Time Trial
Bewley and Sagan are annoying riders for 21 managers in the division. Reason why I didn`t want to give them more than 3 stars really.
Though in cobbles, it wouldn`t be fair to give anything but the 5*. Bewley is simply a cheat when coming to the big races over paves. His palmares is impressive and likely never be beaten in the next 100 years. Who thought, Boonen was great, didn`t imagine how Bewley is doing. Support looks mediocre but Boros is a beast with 2-3 more solid riders for him. Shows that the top top guys don`t need the very best behind them.
Sagan is only 82 but riding like a 85 riders with his 2017 training. Luckily he got no more and hence those that got trained might close the gap. Though Sagan still is the best behind the big 3! And he will still win 1-2 classics as last year even though with Boasson Hagen back on PT level, it won`t be easy.
And yes, only 3 stars for Bewley in the sprints. Why? Simply as he does not have as many rd`s as other sprinters that are used for sprint races. With all cobbled classics and maybe even TONE (unlikely I guess) he won`t have that much left. Might not do a GT as other sprinters and hence missing out on the big Vuelta flat stages for example. Surely can still win or podium the shorter flat races such as Qatar, but his main points come from the cobbles.
3 stars also for the mountain squad and they lost their best in Velits! Though the new star will be Barguil, winner of the 2017 Tour of America and now with more experience and training becomeing a top10 contender in the big races. His backup stats are excellent, maybe a bit more potential in TTs but give him 1-2 more trainings and he will attack the top5 in GTs. Similar with Hirt. Now finally maxed, he is a top10 rider for GTs with this stats. And both get decent enough support in all their races.
Next and last the TTs. Their leaders aren`t as strong as the best and hence the support can`t be too strong. Though it could be a bit better. Turek and Danacik are average and they are the team`s best. A team that will struggle to get any points from TTs this year.
Porto - Prio
**** Mountain *** Hill *** Sprint *** Time Trial 0* Cobble
As a Portuguese team is supposed to, they will do nicely in the mountains with 4! Yes 4 80+ climbers and some riders behind!
And still only 4 stars for the big strength! Was close to give 5 but decided to leave this for the better stage racers. Machado started to decrease but still can reach a top5 in GTs I think. Same goes for Intxausti, who is basically a top5-10 rider in any race he enters that isn`t too hilly. At 31 2-3 years on high level still for him. Then young Reis the guy for the future but with serious acc issues, that need to be worked on for bigger results while Vinhas as last is their luxury domestique, that other teams don`t have!
Hills and 3 stars for Claeys, who is a good rider on some days but is lacking on many other days. Though if you can do well with such one dimensionality, it`s in the hills and hence, he won`t do too bad. Borges though, who was last year main reason for a decent season by the team will be slowed down a bit and hence won`t repeat it.
Avelino is a strong sprinter but I think in PT against Swift/Coquard/Grosu he will struggle. A win or two are possible but he won`t score a lot and with Carvalho he might do okay as leadout but not their big scoring potential and 2 stars were close!
The TT squad will do decent in TTTs when all are together as their weakest then is 74 with Nascimento at 79 the best. Though this includes the top3 climbers and hence not sure they race that many TTTs together. So more likely they drop down some spots due to that but still okay.
Cobbles is a no go for them and unfortunately they have quite a lot of races there. They won`t score anything but let`s be hones, also low 70 wouldn`t score more, so why bother?
***** Time Trial **** Cobble *** Mountain * Sprint * Hill
Phinney will still carry this Northern American squad but new star in the making is Bennot.
A team with main focus being time trials? Yes! With Taylor Phinney you are basically guaranteed 5 TT wins a season! And 5 stars due to his skills to do more than time trialing as also for the addition of Cataford, Brown and Rosskopf. Still I feel the team could have added 2-3 more mid 70 riders to attack the TTTs a lot more.
Next up cobbles as Summerhill is likely a top3 rider there. Bewley and Van Avermaet might be the others with 2-3 more to add on most days. But Summerhill really should step up his game this year. Young, Laporte and new rider Benoot are solid support. Last already decent right now but with 2 more xp levels to go, could be a really good rider in the future with lots of allrounder skills!
And finally coming to mountains with 3 stars only despite Phinney able to win a GT or even podium it. Reason is, he is the only rider in the team capable of a top10 or even top15 in the big races plus he can only do 1 GT and another 1-2 stage races and with his TT skills, he will spend time in time trial events as well. Hence without him, they really struggle to fill squads of GC value in 4-5 races.
Their sprinters aren`t good enough for the PT. Yes, Houle is nice and has a great, great flat, hill, sprint combination, which will surely see him up there in some occasions but he is no big scorer I think and also Young won`t do a lot despite also having great stats in general. With the right sprint leader in front of them, they could make the best sprint train though, hence a thing to consider for 2019!
And they still beat the puncheur squad. Phinney as best surely won`t race many hill races and neither is a man for the classics. They lose big points there when sprinter Houle and allrounder Benoot are your best chances. Rosskopf as time trialist could be added as well as 4th tier stage racer.
Team Puma - SAP
**** Mountain **** Hill *** Sprint *** Time Trial * Cobble
Herklotz at his best will put this team on a fully new level! And then there still is Project Demare, who is close to reach his 80+ goal. Just for fun though.
Herklotz was a star in the making for some time now and still has a great palmares already I feel. Now maxed he is soon to win his first GT. Might not be this year as Schleck, Gesink and Spilak are still too good while Taaramae or Madrazo also are 1 level ahead of him. At least on many days. Though Herklotz has one of the best backup stats you can imagine and just could use a bit more TT to become the very best with a bit on mo also helpful. Behin him Nerz, who looks better than he performs and Bongiorno as great support riders while it`s actually Arndt to be co-leader in the GTs capable of a top10 somehow. Yet another of those riders, you like only if he is riding for yourself as big overperformer. 5 stars were close to be honest.
4 stars for hills as well as Kelderman is a great rider and just would need a tiny bit more to be a regular top3-5 finisher. His support is better than for many other teams with versatile riders such as Felline, who ha a nice sprint or Mager, who can climb as well. Just 3 riders can`t ride hills below 70! And those are high 60`s. Demare and Herklotz as well can ride hills very well and hence will win a stage here and there on a hilly rated stage. Later in especially loves MSR but has strong rivals there.
Demare also the top sprinter and in fact a very good one capable of winning on pan flat stages as also on very hard hill stages. Though while the 80+ project is interesting, the amount of hill sprinters is damn high these days and hence it`s not as special as it felt like 4 years ago. Still a top scorer with an under average train, which might hurt him on some days. Not always the best in positioning himself very well.
Also the TT area looking good with SĂĽtterlin being the team`s best and on a good day can win a TT. Van Baarle, Bevin add nicely alongside others for a solid TTT squad. Most important that the team also is decent on hilly TTTs.
Declerq as best cobbler without support says it all. The team won`t score a lot there but might do decent in the TONE with him actually. Not the best TT and hence not the top5-7 rider but maybe a late top10 when the cobbles prove selective.
Team Tinkoff
**** Cobbles **** Time trial *** Mountain * Hill * Sprint
Tough season ahead and without Trofimov they lost the biggest point scorer. Even the weaker version of him in 2018 would still be their best rider I think.
The TTs are another highlight here. Next to Kritskiy also Yatsevich adds the 80 here and then Malori, Dal Col and Vorobev for a 79. The strongest top5 in the MG I think and then some low 70`s to fill the squad. Not ideal to have such big gap but still one favourite for the TTTs as long as they ride together. Dropping quite a bit once 1 or 2 are missing from the lineup.
84 mountain and just 3 stars...yes Kritskiy is one of the main riders to struggle with other top climbers in the same raes. On paper he looks good and lacking mainly a bit of acc. Though there are like 7-8 better stage racers these days and hence the GT podium, which would be the needed score by such rider, is too far away. Behind him a list of 77 climbers, which are great support or in case of Kolesnikov one of the most underrated riders in the peloton. Regular top15`s in GTs or other stage races and a win or two are not surprising for some reason.
I said it before. Without Trofimov they just lack in too many races and the hill squad despite a 78 and 77 rider in Chernetskiy and Zakarin won`t score a lot. Simply not on PT level and even in PCT wouldn`t score massive. Depth is fine though with some lower mid 70`s for some breaks.
Similar might be said about their sprinters. Porsev their best and he is surprisingly good despite bad backups. Though they lost their best in Boev, who was another overperformer in many races. At least in Samolenkov they have a decent sprinter in some years. Next year at his max and then maybe some training should see him a solid rider. No worldbreaker neither though.
**** Mountain **** Time Trial *** Hill ** Cobble * Sprint
Picking up Trofimov was one of the best moves this FA season. PAying 1mio for him though hurts and was too much really.
Amador I think did podium last year as wildcard rider. This year he can do it again with points counting, which is good for the team, that did promote again after some time in PCT. He is a great allrounder and often is ignored a bit when talking about best stage racers. He surely goes into that top rider area imo and at 32 that`s his last chance to really win something big. Schelling is a nice rider. I enjoyed reporting his coup in last years Tour of America, when he was closely beaten though. A bit of training makes him a nice rider in 2018. Support is strong with couple of 75-77 riders.
One of the strongest teams against the clock as well. Dillier as best might get a top result here and there but mainly their TTT strenght is huge with Amador being a great rider as well. Ivars, Goncalves, Schär and couple more. All in one squad and they might win the TTT events.
Hills could have been 4 stars easily as Trofimov due to his allround skills still belongs to the very best. Though at 34 his time is slowly beyond him. Still I love this pickup for the team as he adds something to the great base and will see them score a lot. 45 race days might be used for hill races alone, but if used in a hillier GT, he might surprise a lot there with big points rewarded. Might actually be the team`s top scorer in the end. Reichenbach as mainly backup is where he belongs. Not good enough for pure leadership and a highly inconsistent rider.
2 stars on cobbles only despite having a great rider in Spengler. Though he is 1 year away from his best and so are his results. He will score regularly but not the biggest points. He is missing the great backup stats for the top area and it might change with his final step.
Reinhardt as best spriner is too less for the PT. Though he is a rider that keeps surprising quite a bit here and there. Hence wouldn`t be surprised if he wins 2 stages this season despite low scoring in general.
Such a fantastic uphill team with Taaramae being their best. Just waiting for the moment Krasnoperov is doing crazy and ruins the Estonian`s life.
Bold 5 stars for the mountain squad. Taaramae main reason obviously. Since 2017 the best stage racer imo and this is the year, he wins the GT after some bad luck last year. Main support will be Krasnoperov and Moschella. Not liking any of them a lot but as support it might be enough with some more in place. Marquez is more the kind of backup leader in other races. His acc makes him a valuable rider on 80mo only. Not sure on PT level as it`s quite some time since last time but might grab a late top10 or top15 regularly. Preidler got some training and he was really good in 2017. Not sure he can repeat it. Might even be too good now on paper to repeat it. We`ll see.
One of the best TT lineups. Taaramae able to win stages but it`s Fiedler, who will be Phinney`s biggest rival. A rider than can win any TT against the best and helping to make Taaramae gain big on TTTs. Hofer, Bontenackels and Predatsch add niecly while hte remaining are a bit lower but still decent. Geniez a rider that really suits Taaramae`s support team well actually.
And also 4 stars on the hills as Van Garderen is coming. He is a big improvement and will see them in the top5 of the big classics as well scoring a lot of points there! Buchmann yet a year from his best is great support already and might surprise here and there just like Preidler on this terrain.
Coming to the ignored areas. Sprints despite two 79 riders. That`s CT sprinters at max but might show up a few times. Selig next year will be their best and also just leadout material.
Even worse for the cobbles. They had hopes in Zepuntke but never got him perform properly. Now they decided to ignore the cobbles and hence getting lots of 0 pointers as Schwarzmann not only is their best, he might be the only one finishing most of the classics.
Volvo acc. by Spotify
**** Sprint *** Mountain *** Cobble ** Time Trial * Hill
Ahlstrand is the face of the team for some time already. This might be his year, otherwise Stallaert might take over the burden of the face.
Though for now Ahlstrand leads their top strength. He is looking really good with that stats and should be better than in the past. With Bertilsson he has a solid leadout alongside Ariesen but think Stallaert should be used in the flat classics and stage races as well to deliver him the best chances.
Abal and Wellens for the GTs and stage races. First was a big performer for them in 2017 and is able to do so again. His hill weakness is often ignored quite well and hence he scores more than you`d expect. Wellens looking better on paper but is struggling here and there. Feel it will be a tough season for them in general as even top10`s aren`t guaranteed a lot with other riders improving.
Stallaert really improved nicely and might actually be able to grab some top5`s or even a big win this season. Though beating Bewley is hard, beating some of the others as well. With his sprint though he is able to win the sprints from the groups and hence double up his points in comparison to others. Support could be better but he has enough of them for most races I think.
TTs with Haugard, Campenaerts and others is more PCT strength individually but it`s a good TTT setup for Abal mainly and a chance to surprise there when all are riding together.
The hills could be better and imo this is where the biggest need was in the transfers. Jensen can surprise regularly Sagan like but he still is 2-3 stats too far down for it. Great backups, not the best main stat. Except for some points here and there he won`t do much really.
7-8 GT sprint wins was a massive 2017. Unchanged mainly they aim to repeat this but competition is higher and how to replace the longterm leader Keizer?
Swift and Groenewegen was probably the best sprinter duo in the PT last season and remain unchanged. Though many rivals got big training and it will be difficult to repeat this. Future is looking good though as the Dutch is only 25. Sbaragli remains as leadout while Van der Sanden got replaced by weaker Bauhaus and loanie Martinelli to do something. Surely the leadout could have been better for such strong dup, which will hurt the team significantly.
De Bie got trained in the end and is now a top5 puncheur with nice backup stats. Also at 27 only future is looking good. Though he won`t regularly beat the top3 puncheurs and then is equal to 1-2 others. Hence reaching big points in the top5 is his main goal. Support is Zardini and Thurau instead of Villella and Thurau. Quite similar really without the top guy though.
The mountain squad became a lot weaker. Instead of 81/81/79 it`s 80/80 now with Keizer out and Dekker on the way down with 34. Olivier though got some training and might help to score a bit more to replace Keizer. Zardini replaces Koep as most important support rider which is coming handy. Top10`s though will be difficult to reach really.
The TT squad is not as strong without Keizer and hence no big scoring expected in the ITTs. TTT wise a lineup around Dekker as leader can still be decent with Boom, Gallopin, Dumoulin and Frison added. It`s up to Boom and Gallopin mainly though to replace Keizer in the TT stage races though and first is having his first decline as well, which is not ideal.
Don`t expect big or any scoring in the cobbles except for the TONE maybe with last years winner Boom, who still is a valuable rider for that combination race. Tough to form a lineup of 7 70+ riders on the paves but then still suck hugely there. Aegon makes this possible and top50`s would be a success already with Orue being their best.
Edited by roturn on 15-08-2018 08:30
The Pro Tour this year is close as rarely with 2-3 teams from the top having gotten hugely weaker while there is no single super weak time as it was at times in the past.
Tinkoff and Desigual imo are the secured relegation teams as their leaders Kritskiy and Tenorio struggle too often and they need to carry the most of their team really.
Then basically all from 12 to 20 can be mixed and 1-2 teams surely will surprise and go higher. I mean it`s Dombrowski in eBuddy, Ahlstrand in Volvo or Morton/Bobridge in Bennelong, which is a shame to rate them taht low. Same for Berg and Gesink, Aegon and Swift/De Bie, RBC with Phinney/Summerhill, Grieg and Bakelants...
The quality is just stunning in 2018 and hard to say.
Let`s go at the higher area. I feel like Moser should win it as long as Bewley is still with them but the cut in rd hurts him a lot. T-Mobile is ready for the title I feel and Taaramae will take care of it. Though it`s a risky prediction seeing they ignore two terrains more or less.
Puma is imo the team that could swap with them as Herklotz is now maxed and his full power isn`t known yet while also Hugo Boss improved nicely.
Isostar the big unknown as promoted team but having Spilak always helps. Even more if you have a great base already and he comes in addition.
The longer I watched this btw. the more I am afraid of relegating myself and thinking SN`s Math calculation is quite well. Though I just keep talking to myself that the combination of De Bie/Swift/Groenewegen and co. is enough to survive this "pending" year of my team in the partly re-build.
In worst case though it wouldn`t be that difficult I think/hope to keep the young core together even in PCT. Edited by roturn on 15-08-2018 08:44
Yap, our team is becoming more one-dimensional by giving up on cobbles this year. On the other hand, we almost had no sprinter last year (Saber rather scored on cobbles than in sprints), so we kinda added a terrain, that we didn't feature last season. As for TTs, I kinda gave up on my hopes for Durbridge to snatch a lucky podium with his 81 TT, so I'm fine with just focussing on TTTs now. Achieving our fourth Copenhagen TTT crown would be awesome, but it will be tough, I fear.
Always nice to read these preview wall of texts! Gives great insight into all teams, which can only be enjoyed
I think you are very much spot on for my team, highlighted with the stars for all categories, only having one with four stars, but none with less than three stars. Definitely excited to see how it turns out to be points wise.
The only thing I disagree on is the comment on Ciolek, but after all cio has done his best for several seasons to talk him down, eventhough his results have been pretty good, especially for a 83 sprinter with weak acceleration Hopefully we are lucky with what sprinters he meets in his races, as I think a leadout can do him a world of good and make him a consistent top three sprinter in such races (obviously not Qatar and similar!).
I like this format. Helps me getting a better overview of the different moves and strengths for those teams i didnt really track during transfers. Thanks a lot!
@Mre: Must admit though I don`t know his schedule and the prediction probably only comes true if he can avoid to race against Swift, Grosu, Coquard, Degenkolb etc. most of the times.
Thanks a lot! Your prediction seems to be more pessimistic for my team with a couple of teams that i see behind me getting a few more stars than me and also the text reads slightly more like a relegation candidate than a top ten candidate. Is that where you see my team or was that just because you wanted to mention the existing weaknesses in each of my leaders?
I agree that Gregs support isnt fantastic and that i gambled quite a bit on not committing more ressources to it but i think i have decentish depth in the support and i dont think that group is much weaker than in the 2016 season. De Vreese could be nearly as good as Nooytens and also Horton or maybe even Stoltz and Smirnovs should be useful helpers for him despite cobble stats that dont suggest that on first glance.
Fair enough
Just was worried that e.g. the Desigual text/stars were imo much more positive while imo i should be quite a bit ahead of them. 10th sounds more in line with what i expected
I think while it will show in the predictions later, the stars are not 100% ideal indeed. They more work as team internal check, not that much for a division wide comparison, in some cases probably yes, but in the lower regions, 1-3 stars not so good.
Hopefully we are lucky with what sprinters he meets in his races, as I think a leadout can do him a world of good and make him a consistent top three sprinter in such races (obviously not Qatar and similar!).
