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PT predictions for lazy/busy wizards
matt17br
Top  #1 Print Post
Posted on 10-10-2017 13:56
This was posted for PCT and CT, but not PT yet because predictions couldn't officially be posted until today. Get your lazy crystal balls ready.

List of predictions:
matt's prediction
SN's Slightly Mathematical Preview
Tamijo's Mathestimat
Abhishek's Rider Prediction
Abhishek's Team Prediction
Tsmoha's no formula Preview
Marco's formula-based prediction
Croatia's prediction
Edited by matt17br on 24-10-2017 14:57
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matt17br
Top  #2 Print Post
Posted on 10-10-2017 13:56
1. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/fes.png Festina - Dexia
2. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/mos.png Moser - Sygic
3. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/aeg.png Aegon - Lavazza
4. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/vsa.png Vesuvio - Accumalux
5. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/akm.png Aker - MOT
6. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/pum.png Team Puma - SAP
7. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/rbc.png RBC Pro Cycling
8. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/evo.png Evonik - ELKO
9. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/jay.png Jayco - Cobra9
10. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/pnd.png Pendleton's
11. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/ebd.png eBuddy
12. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/gzl.png Gazelle
13. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/tsa.png Tinkoff Sport Academy
14. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/spy.png Spotify - Haglöfs
15. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/hug.png Hugo Boss
16. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/wha.png Wiesenhof-Andritz
17. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/itd.png Iberia - Team Degenkolb
18. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/prp.png Porto - Prio
19. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/ayu.png Ayubowan!
20. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/sva.png Strava
21. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/afr.png Project: Africa
22. pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/nem.png Nemiroff - ABBYY
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ember
Top  #3 Print Post
Posted on 10-10-2017 21:32
Definitely appreciate the faith you have in my team, but 5th feels way too high with the team I've got this year. You must've gotten too much Trentin love Pfft

On the other hand, I expect it to be pretty close from 5th place and all the way down to 10th-12th, where it won't take much to advance several placings. Though, I agree on the top four teams. Not necessarily in that order, but those four seem to be a step above the others.

And nice to have this one going for the PT as well!
 
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matt17br
Top  #4 Print Post
Posted on 10-10-2017 22:34
You must've gotten too much Trentin love

Maybe, but PCM will love his stats I'd say, if he won't be the 3rd best cobbler in the game he's most definitely in the top 5, which should yield you 650-700 points at worst and who knows, around 900-1000 if he performs very well.

Beltran is certainly another lovely addition, too, whose importance in making up for EBH's loss shouldn't be underestimated. Sure, he won't be more than a domestique in most occasions, but he's a damn good one that can realistically aim around the 400-450 zone, why not.
(Former) Manager of pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png Generali pcmdaily.com/images/mg/2020/Micros/gen.png
 
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roturn
Top  #5 Print Post
Posted on 11-10-2017 06:50
I still doubt my team will do better than last year as I think the ~500 points I got with Keizer/Olivier in Giro/Tour are hard to repeat.

Dekker/Groenewegen might be able to grab those points as replacement and hence a similar season is possible.

But I think it`s other teams such as Puma that now overtake us and drop us down a bit.

That said, 3rd is really nice to read. Pfft
 
viking90
Top  #6 Print Post
Posted on 11-10-2017 16:00
14th, will take that anyday of the week Cool
 
Marcovdw
Top  #7 Print Post
Posted on 13-10-2017 23:12
This prediction might be very bad, but it's how someone would predict with just the OVL numbers

Because everyone's prediction is so full based of subjective things and very difficult calculations, I based my prediction relying on one stat: OVL. Which I know is not a 100% accurate reflection of the actual strength but it's good enough for me. I'll call it "Marco's overall ranking based on overall"

There are three individual rankings in the spoilers. They are all based on the average of the first n-riders of the team. The final ranking is a combination of those three rankings

"Leaders" ranking (5 riders):
Spoiler
RankTeamOVL
1Festina - Dexia79,01
2Moser - Sygic78,75
3Pendleton's78,60
4Aegon - Lavazza78,53
5Jayco - Cobra978,24
6Hugo Boss78,15
7Wiesenhof - Andritz78,08
8Vesuvio - Accumalux78,06
9RBC Pro Cycling78,01
10Team Puma - SAP77,99
11Evonik - ELKO77,97
12Aker - MOT77,85
13Iberia - Team Degenkolb77,60
14Gazelle77,56
15Porto - Prio77,51
16Spotify - Haglöfs77,46
17Strava77,44
18Tinkoff Sport Academy77,4
19eBuddy77,36
20Ayubowan!77,17
21Project: Africa77,13
22Nemiroff - ABBYY76,67


"Depth" ranking (10 riders):
Spoiler
RankTeamOVL
1Festina - Dexia77,09
2Team Puma - SAP77,06
3Aegon - Lavazza76,86
4Moser - Sygic76,79
5Vesuvio - Accumalux76,77
6Pendleton's76,72
7Aker - MOT76,71
8Porto - Prio76,45
9RBC Pro Cycling76,36
9Spotify - Haglöfs76,36
11Wiesenhof - Andritz76,26
12Jayco - Cobra976,25
13Gazelle76,22
13Hugo Boss76,22
15Evonik - ELKO76,19
16eBuddy76,07
16Iberia - Team Degenkolb76,07
16Project: Africa76,07
19Tinkoff Sport Academy76,03
20Strava75,55
21Ayubowan!75,38
22Nemiroff - ABBYY75,16


"Domestique" ranking (15 riders):
Spoiler
RankTeamOVL
1Team Puma - SAP76,15
2Aker - MOT75,97
3Moser - Sygic75,75
4Festina - Dexia75,68
5Vesuvio - Accumalux75,67
6Aegon - Lavazza75,59
7Gazelle75,53
8Spotify - Haglöfs75,46
9Pendleton's75,44
10Project: Africa75,34
11Porto - Prio75,30
12Wiesenhof - Andritz75,26
13eBuddy75,24
13RBC Pro Cycling75,24
13Tinkoff Sport Academy75,24
16Hugo Boss75,21
17Evonik - ELKO75,11
18Jayco - Cobra975,03
19Strava74,60
20Iberia - Team Degenkolb74,56
21Nemiroff - ABBYY74,25
22Ayubowan!74,03


Final ranking (0.5 * Leader + 0.3 * Depth + 0.2 * Domestique):
RankTeamOVL
1pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/fes.png Festina - Dexia77,77
2pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/mos.png Moser - Sygic77,56
3pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/aeg.png Aegon - Lavazza77,44
4pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/pnd.png Pendleton's77,40
5pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/pum.png Team Puma - SAP77,34
6pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/vsa.png Vesuvio - Accumalux77,20
7pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/akm.png Aker - MOT77,13
8pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/jay.png Jayco - Cobra977,00
9pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/hug.png Hugo Boss76,98
10pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/wha.png Wiesenhof - Andritz76,97
11pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/rbc.png RBC Pro Cycling76,96
12pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/evo.png Evonik - ELKO76,86
13pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/gzl.png Gazelle76,75
14pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/prp.png Porto - Prio76,75
15pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/spy.png Spotify - Haglöfs76,73
16pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/tsa.png Tinkoff Sport Academy76,56
17pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/ebd.png eBuddy76,55
18pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/itd.png Iberia - Team Degenkolb76,53
19pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/afr.png Project: Africa76,45
20pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/sva.png Strava76,31
21pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/ayu.png Ayubowan!76,01
22pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/nem.png Nemiroff - ABBYY75,73
Manager of Minions
 
tsmoha
Top  #8 Print Post
Posted on 14-10-2017 11:32
Yay! A Top-10 prediction for Jayco Smile Can't really say that I expect us to finish 8th, but who knows? Maybe a stellar season from Bobridge and a significally better output from Morton will make it possible. If TTTs aren't as bitchy as the Oceanian Championships ITT Pfft

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Croatia14
Top  #9 Print Post
Posted on 17-10-2017 13:32
Decided to give a short "current feelings" list. Wouldn't be surprised if this at the end is the least accurate, as I also tried to take some risks while predicting. Have fun.

1.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/fes.pngFestina - Dexia
2.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/mos.pngMoser - Sygic
3.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/aeg.pngAegon - Lavazza
4.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/rbc.pngRBC Pro Cycling
5.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/evo.pngEvonik - ELKO
6.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/vsa.pngVesuvio - Accumalux
7.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/wha.pngWiesenhof-Andritz
8.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/gzl.pngGazelle
9.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/pum.pngTeam Puma - SAP
10.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/akm.pngAker - MOT
11.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/jay.pngJayco - Cobra9
12.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/pnd.pngPendleton's
13.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/hug.pngHugo Boss
14.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/tsa.pngTinkoff Sport Academy
15.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/itd.pngIberia - Team Degenkolb
16.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/ebd.pngeBuddy
17.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/prp.pngPorto - Prio
18.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/spy.pngSpotify - Haglöfs
19.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/sva.pngStrava
20.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/ayu.pngAyubowan
21.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros16/afr.pngProject: Africa
22.pcmdaily.com/files/Micros17/nem.pngNemiroff - ABBYY
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/moty.png
 
ember
Top  #10 Print Post
Posted on 24-10-2017 14:53
Interesting predictions, Croatia14! Seems like everyone is rating eBuddy rather low though, alexkr00 must start to feel it's all part of a conspiracy Pfft Also surprising to see Pendleton's down there, as that's a team I think could very well challenge for a top 3 overall.

Vesuvio is another team I expect to do better than what you predict, simply because of the monster Schleck is.

And 10th for my team feels just about right, I must say. Hopefully we can pull off a top 10, which also feels realistic, but not guaranteed, looking at the leaders I've got.
 
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