I am opening this thread so people who haven't got much time, inspiration or motivation to build a prediction with some good graphics and information of each time can do it here.
Feel free to bomb this with predictions and opinions
Nice try on the PT rankings, which has many special things to consider, which can be tricky for manager outside of it.
Happy to see us so high, but i think we will aim for few places lower, maybe 5-6th?
Festina and Vesuvio are top3 material, but i think they can be joined by Tinkoff ,which you put very very low, that is probably the most way off thing, together with Orange being so high, i would put them lower. (sorry CT)
I will maybe come with own simple prediction in this thread if i will find some more time, but it is tough even for PT manager to come to some conclusion!
Nice try Jph27! I guess this one is a bit closer to reality, top6 teams should be these you mentioned, maybe Jaycoz and Tinkoff replacing someone like Orange,Metinvest or Aker there.
Gazelle should be the best promoting team for sure and could attack top10.
Aegon could do a bit better this time, with Swift and DeBie, i see them rather out of relegation..Movistar for example is worse than Aegon i think.
I am surprised that people see Tinkoff so low. They have two great point scorers, rest is worse indeed, but points flow could be steady...
Being in the "Just relegation" spot once again after 2014 would really hurt.
Hope you are wrong and Swift, De Bie, Keizer, Olivier, Boom can score better.
All I want is to stay clear of the relegation places to be able to continue with this solid foundation of a PT roster and get rid of PCT fears for hopefully eternity.
17th is our goal, anything above is just extra budget for next year.
I guess that Grieg, Kenya, RBC and to an extent Movistar would need a medium-sized miracle to beat us, I agree with that.
But after that, it all seems very close to me, so I don't want to be overconfident yet. Red Bull probably need a monster Alarcon though to significantly separate themselves from the aforementioned, but who knows what surprises the season will bring?
This is more or less what I sent in to SotD, just some minor changes done afterwards. Added some description etc.
1. Becherovka - The monster of a bike rider that is Sam Bewley is the reason behind the number one spot. Guaranteed to take a bunch of big wins with his great support. Velits and Sagan should give the team a good amount of points in the other terrains. They lacked the extra points from a second tier GC contender last season, but with König's training, I think they will clinch the title this time.
2. I-Gen - The winner last year, and besides some sponsor changes, the team hasn't changed that much in. A couple of second tier leaders have left the team, with Riccardo Ricco the most notable name. Still, with world beaters like Spilak and Coppel it should be a great season. May miss a rider in the hills (when Spilak is not riding). Lecuisinier developement sees him as a proper GC threat and replaces Ricco when it comes to that. Not the best sprinters or cobblers, but should pick up points on a regular basis.
3. Metinvest - "The Pluckhin team". The Moldovian had a great season in 2015, and would be amongst the top three favourites in any race with a mountain that he enters. With Zmorka and Grosu's development the team also looks much stronger this time around. Great TTT-setup, with the mentioned Zmorka and Ignatiev as the best. The latter enjoyed a good season, and is a key for the team with his strong performances in races like Milano-San Remo. A decent sprinter in Grosu and cobblers like Nolf and Albert should see them score on most terrains. Need to escape the hills with some long attacks...
4. Vesuvio More or the less the same as last season, with Van der Lijke and Vanmarcke in for Swift. Even though the team needed a cobbler, and Van der Lijke is an exciting rider, they should be nowhere near scoring what their lead sprinter did last season. Good leaders in all terrains other wise, with Andy Schleck being the obvious "go-to"-rider.
5. Aker - Lost Dan Martin, who was a great point scorer last season. Still, that meant that they held on to Boasson Hagen. He wasn't performing great in the classics last season, and needs to take a step up. Guldhammer were a consistent scorer last season, and will be looking to do the same. Alexander Kristoff have been trained for the Martin money, and could be an even bigger threat that last season. Most of the talents have also reached 4.100, giving the team good depth.
6. Tinkoff - Two top leaders in Trofimov and Kritskiy. Trofimov had a great season last year, and Kritskiy is set to take a step up after recieving some training (and with many riders on his level now in the PCT). Lacks PT-leaders in the other terrains, especially with Gusev declining.
7. Bouygues Telecom - A great team on paper. I'm a huge fan of Taaramäe, and Bakelants should be one of the best in the division. He need to take a step up this season, after a some what dissapointing 2015. "Lost" Tim Wellens after he returned to Bpost after the loan spell, and the team clearly miss those second tier leaders. A decent sprinter in Roelandts as well, but just seems like the team is very empty behind their great leaders.
8. Pendleton's - Survived, somehow, last season. Now we'll finally see a fully developed Dombrowski. They also managed to sign Nibali, who surely can't do it worse than last season. One of the cobblers in Senechal, and a good hilly leader in Lutsenko should see them score good on most terrains. None of the riders in the team can sprint though.
9. eBuddy - A great rider in Robert Gesink. Use him right, and he should score tons. Henao is another certaint point scorer. Good depth behind them, but surely misses some clear leaders in the other terrains to really join the battle amongst the top, top teams.
10. Aegon - Ben Swift, together with Bewley the best sprinter in the divison, should see them score a lot of points. They have a decent train for him as well. Also loving the look on Sean De Bie, who should be able to score on a regular basis. Don't really know what to expect from Keizer, but he certainly have the abilities to score big if he's picked for the right races.
11. Gazelle - Have kept the core that got them promoted, though Monfort is declining and a declining Pozzato left the team. Added some big names on top of that core with Angel Madrazo and Francesco Ginnani. Both certain point scorers that should see them enjoy their first spell in the PT. Lacks sprinters, but that's the Gazelle way. Oh, and great depth.
12. Bpost - Not a team with the biggest names, but Vanspeybrouck is amongst the top cobblers, and Boeckmans amongst the best sprinters. Two good GC options, with Wellens fully developed. Claeys was a huge failure last season for Volkswagen, and is a gamble. A good depth should help them to points in most races.
13. Evonik - Another promoted team. They went and got themselves three great leaders in Greg Van Avermaet, Toms Skuijns and Michael Van Stayen. Those three alone should keep the team relatively easy up, but they clearly lack a climber to challenge the top 5 teams. Van Stayen and Van Avermaet had a relatively bad co-operation last season, hopefully they'll click better in a new team.
14. Puma-SAP - Just how many points will Kelderman's training be worth? Hopefully for cio it will pay off. Blythe is a great leader for the northern classics, and we finally have the awaited arrival of a fully developed Arnaud Demare. With many sprinters being trained, it will be interesting to see what he and Ciolek can do. Nerz wasn't impressive last year, but the team have good depth and should survive on that.
15. Pokerstars - Captains in, and captains out. Great riders like Ginanni and Roche have left the team, while Justo Tenorio have entered. Should be relatively even point wise, looking at the great abilities that the Spaniard possesses. Degenkolb have recieved some training, and makes for a very interesting sprint duo together with Erik Mohs.
16. Orange - A team that could surprise. Dekker have been replaced by Cattaneo, and in general the team have riders that could do great on all terrains. But then again, neither Sicard or Cattaneo are huge point scorers. Schreurs have a weak season behind him, and tougher competition this year. The same for the trained Kennaugh. Kamyshev is a rider with great stats for most part of the cobbled races, but really miss a good sprint. Only team with three 80+ MO riders.
17. Jayco'z - Three (/four) good captains from Australia, always good to see a successful focus like that. A trained Bobridge and a fully developed Lachlan Morton should be great captains for the team. Burghardt is declining, but should be able to do another season in the top of the northern classics. Almost strange to think that Goss won the WC a few years back. With sprinters being trained here and there, Goss doesn't look like a favourite in the sprints anymore. tsmoha got himself a great talent in Saber, and as always a great TTT-setup. They lost Pozzovivo and Visconti, who scored over a 1000 points combined. That's points that Morton and Bobridge need to add from last seasons tally. Could therefore be a hard second year for Jayco'z.
18. RBC - Could Taylor Phinney keep them up alone? Even though he is trained this year, Venchi just barely stayed up (before disbanding) with him and Van Stayen last year. None of the other leaders are PT-material, and will struggle to score consistently. Good depth, but need a huge season from Phinney in order to stay up.
19. Kenya Airways - As RBC, also this promoted team went all in for one leader. Ponzi enjoyed a fantastic season last year, and is even trained this year around. Will he be able to repeat last season, though? He surely needs to if Kenya want to survive. As RBC (x2) they also lack other PT-leaders. Meyer have "enjoyed" some bad seasons in CT, and FroomeDog should be happy if he's bothered to sprint. Vandenbergh desperately misses a sprint. Sergent is a very good time trialist, but lack a TT-team to really get the best out of him. Kwiatkowski had a great season in PCT, but it would be a rather impossible task repeating that a higher level.
20. Red Bull - Have lost Skuijns and Cancellara, and haven't really replaced them. Mohoric is brought in, but needs some more experience before he is ready for a leader's role. Cavendish and Holloway could obviously do good, but as mentioned before, the sprinters field is a tough one this year. Need a great season from Alarcon, who still have back up stats as domestique. Not great support or depth either. Could be a tough one for Red Bull, this.
21. Movistar - Lacks a great leader. Van Garderen had a great season last year, but it would be hard task to repeat that with even more great hilly riders. Abal replaces Fothen and Ratiy, but not really that much better. Altur have reached 80 cobbles and could impress here and there together with Tsatevich. Maksimov is as always a gamble. The team have a good depth, but looks tough for them this year.
22. Grieg - Shit. No real leaders. Trentin and Guarnieri can do the occasional top 10. Decent TTT. Way too many riders. Will be better in the future, hopefully.
Nice insight tastasol! Happy to see us Metinvest so high again, top5 is our goal and that is all that matters. I agree with everything you have said about us.
The ranking seems very close to what i would have made, maybe just Jaycoz a bit higher on expense of Aegon or Evonik, who lack the depth of second year PT team.
I love the comment on your own team.
You will be back, dont worry!
I struggle a lot to predict where my team will end and thus, I was worried a bit already when the first two predictions saw my team right in the relegation fight but 13th would sound a lot better already
Had to laugh a bit when I saw that you ranked 5 promoted teams on back to back promoted places mid table but all of them could finish thereabouts
Unfortunately, I think my team Orange is way overrated in the first two while tastasol's is probably more accurate.
Schreurs was pretty useless last season with no noteworthy results at all, so Orange will probably be invisible in all the hilly classics yet again.
Dekker has been replaced by Cattaneo, who I obviously have high hopes for - good stats, but his horrible last season worries me a lot. Not really sure why he was so bad, to be honest, but we'll see. He has to deliver this season.
Kamyshev is a question mark. This is his first season as fully developed, so I'll just have to see how good he really is...
Then there's Kennaugh who's been trained - but the same goes for pretty much every sprinter in the peloton
But - despite the negativity - I'd say the team has improved overall since last season, and we did manage 15th. So - an improvement over that would make me happy
I haven't really had the chance to check and rate other teams yet, though.
CrueTrue wrote:
Dekker has been replaced by Cattaneo, who I obviously have high hopes for - good stats, but his horrible last season worries me a lot. Not really sure why he was so bad, to be honest, but we'll see. He has to deliver this season.
Worth noting (if you weren't aware) that Cattaneo has only just maxed out, so this is his first season on these stats.
