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Smowz's PT Predo
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| Smowz |
Posted on 01-06-2015 19:57
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Team Leader
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Okay you know the drill. Backwards alphabet makes me dizzy so as usual ember ends up first.
Aker - MOT:
So Aker have gone full Norwegian - why not with worlds top punchy man Hagen and sprinter-cum-cobbler Kristoff banging in a decent percentage of the wage. Dane Guldhammer and Irish outsider Dan Martin give the team some stage racing bite.
Reality check: Hagen is the only guy who is a bone fide winner, Kristoff could surprise of course a cobbler who can sprint. But you feel he is just a poor mans Bewley. Hard to see anything but a top 10 finish as this team had to whack out a million of Guldhammer and Kristoff off the free agency. Still for one of these almost single nationality teams this one aint too bad at all. Going to be deep in the top ten - nasty bastards stole Pendletons only good rider!
Jim Bowen: (Ayubowen!)
All French and Sri Lankan team with Pinot, Vanderbiest and Gautier leading a brave and underdog team. Vanderbiest has a decent history in the PT and there are plenty of great breakaway style riders further down. Petit, Kadri, Le Bon, Bouet have plied their trade in the PT for some time. Six Sri Lankans in the PT is a major boost for that nation.
Reality check:This team suck balls. Sure fire relegation material. Will likely get a few breakaway wins just to piss me off. Now lets roll the endless Jim Bowen meme’s.
Bacardi:
Kami is back with a now Spanish-Italian squad which made its big move for the less fashionable of the two Spanish Santander young bloods Justo Tenorio. Smarting from defeat at last years Vuelta a more chorine heavy course should suit him but may well bring along some differing challenges. Rigo Uran has served his time down in the little leagues and remains a good solid state racer, similar story for former Milan San Remo winner Diego Ulissi. Team has good presence in the uphills, three real hitters. That's three more that Jim Bowen.
Reality check: Tenorio probably will hope to avoid Taylor Phoney hard to see him beating him too often. This team will have its moments but look a little thin in some departments and could this be a second relegation for the team manager or a glorious second GT win via Tenorio. Interesting to see if he and Madrazo face each other, could be quite the handbags for the squeaky voiced Spanish choir boys. You know mb had them unsullied at a young age!
Becherovka:
Bewley remains the big star and Roman has continued to focus on improving his stars rather than bringing in any new names. Velits, Sagan and Howard will be looking for points again and Roman can usually find a good combination of races to put his guys in.
Reality Check: Bewley is a beast of a rider and will guarantee a top 10 finish at least for Roman. He really could win a lot - big favourite on cobbles and in sprints. No Boonan and a lesser Cancellara he will be difficult to beat. Let's bang on about Bewley some more - put short he will be demi god. But bar that Howard looks the strongest other guy, had some nice results last year and this time he is better. The Peter's should help in stage races when Bewley runs out of race days too. Velits should be good for some high finishes, if he can surprise with some high results and Sagan can do something then who knows? I think this team will creep into title race. They will be annoying out of reach for the sinewy tendrils of the Red Bull franchise or maybe not if our man with a crowbar does his work.
Bouygues:
Other than loans fairly quiet transfer season for Crommy’s team that nabbed Bakelants and Taaramae in the last couple of years. Wellens is a big loan star and Roelandts continues to be a top top sprinter and of course there is Bos. Taaramae had a decent year last time and still is one of those stage racers who shouldn’t be underestimated.
Reality check: Bakelants didn’t deliver last year, if he splutters again Bouygues just may be looking over their shoulder. Taaramae is nice enough though - the lovable Estonian looks like the iceman in Estonian colours. I think this is one of those static PT teams you know like one that will not flush, that is fortunate that there is so many new teams that their place is not under more pressure. They will probably stick around in the PT for another year. Bos is still a worthless bag of you know what.
Edited by Smowz on 01-06-2015 20:11
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| sutty68 |
Posted on 01-06-2015 23:31
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Tour de France Champion
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Jim Bowen elected Pope  PMSL  |
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 02-06-2015 06:49
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World Champion
Posts: 13662
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Nice read so far, looking forward to the next parts.
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| SotD |
Posted on 02-06-2015 09:39
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World Champion
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Indeed. It is nice to see other previews rather than just those standard ones 
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| Smowz |
Posted on 02-06-2015 22:01
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Team Leader
Posts: 6386
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Festina:
I usually tip them to win the PT - Spilak is the highest rated rider in the game but then the top 4 riders are all stage racers too with the big MO 85. He will start as big favourite for almost any race he starts which may include the Ardennes. Ricco was looked to offloaded, a marmite character who races a bit like that too in that he could be very very good but also very unlucky with crashes last year. Coppel has been swapped with sprint gamble Guerao as Festina have finally a Greek rider who has a chance to challenge for himself in the sprints in Tzortzakis.
Three really big names and a sprinter and also a young paid up member to the shyte pack of stage racers in Little Cuisine. Coppel needs a bit of hill climbing spunk to make his TT ability shine - he didn’t actually win enough chronos for me last year. I don’t think the random daily form will change that much this year so Coppel could disappoint again - well thats what his old selling manager thinks anyway. If Ricco and Spilak fire this team could win the PT and the Tour much like Vesuvio last year. Bunch of improving youngsters could prove that next year is the big one for Festina watches. But Ricco is a silly prat and Coppel is a lazy climber so just short as usual this year.
Good Energy:
Quiet transfer season with only real change Blythe improved over cobbles after a slightly muted cobbled campaign last time out. Ponzi and Guarnieri had good seasons last year and Good Energy continue to have that youthful enthusiasm feel. Very good back up stats really help the team and perform better than they first look. Cattaneo should go closer at the Giro this year - will hope for a TT heavy one in 2016.
Reality Check: Doubt team can improve on last years impressive showing, one of those long term PT stalwarts now who should finish somewhere between 4th and 12th. Ponzi had a really nice season last year and remains a consistent performer. I'll say what I say about Blythe every year really needs to land a nice cobbled result this year - of course cobbles now an easier playing field bar Bewley so big chance for him and it will be even more disappointing when he fails again. Guarnieri is just behind Bewley and Swift (and now Van Stayen) but should still score well - may just be a bit more of a pack sprint field. Good Energy may be good but are they really great and what the hell is good anyway - is it good enough?
Meiji:
Feel good story from bottom of the barrel three years ago to PT team. Unorthodox approach with Cunego, Franzoi, Bennati and Napolitano leading and 32+ Italian power squad accompanied by younger Oriental riders. It is a risk but at least a realistic attempt to stay in the PT. Cunego is a MG legend and still has strong stats on MO and HI, Napolitano still has some speed and it will be exciting to watch Ji go hard in stage races this year.
Reality check: Cunego and Napolitano are a bit too expensive for their expected yield. I think Cunego can still land a classic or two and possible some stage races - highly doubt he can take a mountainous Giro against Schleck we shall see if Meiji put him there he may be better off missing GT’s all together. Need a fair bit of luck to avoid relegation this is a team to cheer though. Should finish ahead of Jim Bowen and the Ice cream boys at least. Let's give Cunego one last cheer before he finally visits glue factory.
Metinvest:
Conveniently expanded their sphere of influence to include Pluchkin and too right as he has kept the barely interested B and O squad up for years. Nice to see the Moldovan hero get an enthusiastic manager. Not a completely one sided team either with Nolf/Sibilla giving the team an unfamiliar cobbled aspect, along with the much maligned but undeniably talented Ignatiev a guy with an interesting MG history.
Reality check: Pluchkin is awesome, pretty sure this should be enough for Metinvest bearing some almighty crashing clusterf***. Of course if Metinvest go for two GT’s with Pluich and he somehow disappoints and if the cobbled former luxury cobbled domestique duo fail to step up then this will be a relegation season. I think that is too many if’s, still I like to think we can have party on Avins butt. He may now be married but we know he is bride of Sagan (actually more like clone )
Movistar:
Let’s forget secondary sponsors. This team have gone for the Rothaus school of thought with some even riskier but nonetheless bold approaches to reforming an all hispanic promoting team into some attempt at staying up. TvG is a really nice punchy rider who seems to be at the right end of results more often than not. Maksimov winning Pt sprints? who knows will be entertaining winner - Stage racing duo Fothen and Ratiy should score steading points and Altur will be interesting to follow.
Reality check: First glance relegation fodder. But I actually will be cheering for this team, I pushed him on TvG why because I wanted the bland as fuck Yank and he snaffled up two MG legends in new shyte pack leader Ratiy and and Bos like Maksimov too boot. Some will criticise the managers inability to stay clean Spanish I say BS to that great attempt at a plan B or C at sneaking out of relagating back down to the dustbowl.
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| Mresuperstar |
Posted on 02-06-2015 22:14
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 7802
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Well said. If you didn't push me on TVG I could probably have afforded him and one of the elite stage racers in place of Fothen, Ratiy and some brought in depth riders. Or probably not... I still wonder how high they still would have gone if I keep pushing. I think a few managers still could have gone higher.
A fear relegation but it wouldn't be the worse thing in the world. A now have a strong base to build from which I didn't really have before.
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-06-2015 05:50
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
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No reality check for me
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| Avin Wargunnson |
Posted on 03-06-2015 06:41
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World Champion
Posts: 13662
Joined: 20-06-2011
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No partying on my butt!
But yeah, we are risking two GTs with Pluchkin.
Another funny read.
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 03-06-2015 06:53
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World Champion
Posts: 12429
Joined: 20-05-2009
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Hey, I dont plan on winning any GT's with Cunego, but a podium would be very nice (and even that is probably unrealistic). He is riding two GT's though, so maybe that will end up being a mistake. I just kind of felt like I couldn't have 2 GT's with no real hope of a Top 10, and I doubt I'm going to be taking many stage wins in the races either.
Edited by valverde321 on 03-06-2015 07:11
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| Heine |
Posted on 03-06-2015 08:51
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Grand Tour Specialist
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I like how you use a different style than the others Can't wait for my team (as usual)
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-06-2015 09:01
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World Champion
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valverde321 wrote:
Hey, I dont plan on winning any GT's with Cunego, but a podium would be very nice (and even that is probably unrealistic). He is riding two GT's though, so maybe that will end up being a mistake. I just kind of felt like I couldn't have 2 GT's with no real hope of a Top 10, and I doubt I'm going to be taking many stage wins in the races either.
Cunego riding two GTs? 
That is hugely surprising to me. I really don't think he can podium in any of them, no matter what happens. I guess he will be somewhere in the region of 5-10. He is a very similar rider to Ricco last season. He was 4th and had no chance at all to get a better result. He fighted to stay there, and might have been 5th. This season the competition might be even harder.
9 racedays besides the Grand Tours. What are you going to do with those? Tirreno-Adriatico + Giro di Lombardia?
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| valverde321 |
Posted on 03-06-2015 11:25
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World Champion
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SotD wrote:
valverde321 wrote:
Hey, I dont plan on winning any GT's with Cunego, but a podium would be very nice (and even that is probably unrealistic). He is riding two GT's though, so maybe that will end up being a mistake. I just kind of felt like I couldn't have 2 GT's with no real hope of a Top 10, and I doubt I'm going to be taking many stage wins in the races either.
Cunego riding two GTs?
That is hugely surprising to me. I really don't think he can podium in any of them, no matter what happens. I guess he will be somewhere in the region of 5-10. He is a very similar rider to Ricco last season. He was 4th and had no chance at all to get a better result. He fighted to stay there, and might have been 5th. This season the competition might be even harder.
9 racedays besides the Grand Tours. What are you going to do with those? Tirreno-Adriatico + Giro di Lombardia?
Im not sure he can podium either. I think if he's lucky he can at the Giro though, but its not something I expect to happen. I think in general Im hoping for a bit of luck with his grand tours.
He's riding Badaling and Lombardia as well off the top of my head and then I think Liechtenstein and another classic. Now that Im thinking about it, it would probably have been a wiser choice to ride him in one (or 0) GT's but from my view I think I will have more excitement watching him in GT's.
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| SotD |
Posted on 03-06-2015 11:29
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
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I understand that fully. I really am not a fan of having Spilak in no GT's myself, but this season I want to experiment with it prior to next season where I hope my team will finally peak.
Badaling and Lombardia are good bets for a top result, although I cannot see him doing much in Liechteinstein as there are easily 10 better riders - And I guess most of them will ride the race. In terms of points he should have probably ridden the classics - such as Liege-Bastogne-Liege and he could also do well in Milano San Remo I think, although that is a bit of a gamble.
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| ember |
Posted on 04-06-2015 22:34
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You're absolutely right that Boasson Hagen is our only rider who is winning material. Hopefully we will catch a couple of those lucky breakaways which tend to be only annoying if not part of them.
I must also say this is surprisingly many nice words about my team from you, Smowz! I'm almost disappointed
Clearly it helped to sell Van Heerden this transfer season!
In general a very enjoyable read, and with some great pictures to go with the text, thanks for the nice work. |
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| Smowz |
Posted on 06-06-2015 20:53
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Team Leader
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Orange:
All I will be thinking is of that annoying ring tone all season when I see an Orange rider - although the team is another classic cocktail of odds and sods of everything.
So this is who got Sicard - the man who is becoming a curse. Ole CT has got a couple more nice emerging guys in Kennaugh, Schruers and Kamyshev, Yeah who the frigging hell is Kamyshev. It’s a team with a guy on all terrians, Dekker is still a very strong stage racer. CT has a predomantly French team with a nice look about it.
Reality check: Sicard + Dekker use up a hell of a lot of budget and are the sort of stage racers that will win bugger all. Kennaugh isnt the cheapest sprinter around and isn't the best even of his own godforsaken island but still all three are good points grabbers if not the winners to keep the nasty sniff of relegation completely at bay. Yeah CT is hanging around his website for a while longer yet - like an old god or thunder and lightening. Jerome was on my shortlist for old codgers who could still make it
Oz cycling:
Sweet jesus how many riders do this team have - is this the Achilles heel? Still we aint on the reality check yet are we? Burger man should be the big rival to the Bewbastard. Bobo might seem like a clown has the touch of greatness added to him whilst he was at Red Bull so could be a danger in the hilly stuff and a classic double stage racer combo of wise experience in Pozzovivo and Youthful spunk in Morton. There is a decent sprinter in there too in Goss, no not the useless bag of shyte in reality.
Reality check: Too many frigging riders who are absolute rubbish. Even that old dodgy git Rogers is still here. Not sure how this jigsaw puzzle adds together, tsmoha has begun to learn his MG sums after early on disaster. Bar the joke team this plus Meiji could be battling for the wooden spoon like they were those years ago - oh hang on a minute just seen the next team in the alphabet.
Pendleton’s:
Big Phil remians the stalwart and he needs to oversee a really big campaign for Dumbo who is this teams best rider. Money spent on Tim Kennaugh and Tim Dees… let’s get to reality check already.
Reality Check: Oh dear, Oh very much dear indeed. Somebody call wackojacko this is 2015, Valverde is way way past it, unfortunately Gilbert and Kohl have the whiff of something that has been sat at the back of the fridge for too long. There is another who the Frigg cobbler in here but it aint enough and in comes Smowz’s big relegation stamp. This time I think I have got it right - this team could finish lower that Jim Bowen. Now that is an insult.
Pokerstars:
Boonan has gone - but credit must go to beagle for reforming this team almost completely from a hill hating bunch of fat boys into a really dangerous hilly squad with My Nana and CockRoach. This is the next team to put the faith in Keinath and also bought in a rider I was fancying in Faiers. The old heavy barge all out of the way Pokerstars sprint train is still around though with Degenkolb and Mohs giving the Germans plenty of sprint cheer.
Reality check: The lack of that warm ‘Boonan blanket’ covering over the stage racing cracks of this team may see them slip back from the heady heights of chasing the PT title back into the trenches with the likes of the insiduous Red Bull franchise. This team is still a very good solid concise squad, only down side is Shyte pack regular Keinath.
Project numbers:
Gesink has been trained up and his team look set for another good season in stage racing with Henao and Brambilla remaining good outside hopes. Gesink, much like Spilak and Cunego is a good duel classics and stage race threat and is the undoubted star of the team as he has been for some time. Sinkeldam gives the team another outlet for the cobbles.
Reality check: Too many ‘projects’ to climb ultra high on the PT rankings, Gesink will look to improve on what was a pretty bland 2014 for a rider used to winning one stage race per year. Should improve but it is a packed field in stage races and it looks remote that he would beat Tenorio and Phinney at the Vuelta assuming both race it. Will be safe enough from the mire of relegation this time out I think - wacko’s meltdown and jph’s xenophobia help teams like this out. No real outlet other than in the stage races and hills, then again what else is there cobbles is practically cyclocross BS after all.
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 06-06-2015 22:03
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<3
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| Smowz |
Posted on 07-06-2015 11:26
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Quickstep:
Madrazo’s new home with one of MG’s smart managers in Alakagom. Madrazo had a terrible year last time out surprisingly poor in both the Giro and Tour which proved the end of the road for his long time team, that became inactive. Not the only team to take a gamble on a hill hating sprinter. It has been a while since Lo Cicero was in the PT but he could be a smart stroke. Froome is a hill climber rather than a stem staring centre of forum hate and it will be interesting to see how he goes. Lots of guys levelling up, if team is avoiding the drop this team could be a real good one next year.
Reality check: One of these big stage race free agent guys will under deliver. Madrazo was rubbish last year and actually with the Vuelta TT heavy and having to race against Tenorio could be a dangerous in what may have been seen as a safe choice high scoring choice for the Angel of the Mountains - He and Phinney have history I believe. Lo Cicero is a dangerous one low resistance and low ACC should be fascinating to see how he goes. I think QS will stay safe and that is the main aim this year - Alak still could have his 'lowest' league finish ever in the MG.
Red Bull - Huawei:
So I got the cheque book out and had to throw a bucketload at Vesuvio to nab young Skujins. Will I get bored of him like I have so many others in the past? Holloway and Guerao for sprints and still have Jose and Cancellara for big time points. PT champions 2015? What could possibly go wrong.
Reality check:Will be very lucky to nab another monument and GT with this lot. Alarcon’s ACC boosted poor startlist Vuelta unlikely to be repeated and Cancellara could be a real cobbled dud now he is virtually collecting his pension. Blew a possible nice training budget on second tier punchear and the Sprinters are also a level below the best. Too many loans made planner pretty hard number crunching exercise - Smowz tried to be too smart for his own good probably. Also the guy is a potty mouthed dick who often gets his facts wrong, any previews he makes are best ignored though somehow statistically his previews are somehow the most accurate!
UBS-Swisscom:
Little change from Bushwhackers as Amador, Nibali and baldy still lead this team with Schumachers decline perhaps compensated by an interest in cobbles through Jacobs. Obsessively Swiss. No sprinters so it is all on stage racers and waxy chrome dome here.
Reality check: Really not that great, but Amador is a strongman - whose real life conterpart is perhaps beginning to live up to his mangame legend (unlike McLovin), Nibali will find mountainous Giro hard but who bar Andy Schleck will be there? Like Bouygues, Orange sort of boosted by some weaker newly promoted teams and of course the ice creamers but nowhere near top tier.
Tinkoff Bank:
Gusev adds extra dimension to the Russian powerhouse team. Trofimov continues to add to his legend you fancy once again this year with Kritskiy a nice self made stage racer - Has some real powerful depth with a high number of energetic Russion climbers and roulers.
Reality check: I think this team should be really solid this year and with luck genuine title challengers, Trofimov needs to shine for that to happen but he has that star quality. There does seem to be lot of riders on the roster - you wonder if fewer riders and a added leader may have worked out a bit better. Sadly not a lot of other riders available I think who are Russian who would make the grade for that - so stuck perhaps just below the race for the PT title win.
Venchi:
Phinney has a new team to ride for as Phinney is matched with Frankenstiens monster Michael Van Stayen and a couple of other outside points threats De Bie and Duarte. Phinney has always struggled as a bit of a Diesal type climber, this season looks a no brainer with his race California and Vuelta looking likely targets. MvS is a dangerous hybrid Sagan like monster who could strike on numerous terrain.
Reality Check: Duarte is shyte pack material - good and steady at PCT anonymous creep into top 10 at PT. Phinney though is multi dimensional bastard who wins chronos and stage races at will - still 85 MO boys are the dangermen, he may miss those though this year giving Tenorio etc. a bashing at the Vuelta would love to see Madrazo-Phinney battle again. De Bie has Red Bull stamp of hill crappyness a year to early for him - still I think like QS this team has legs for long PT run now after dismal first year a couple of years back.
Vesuvio:
Young Schleck will start favourite for any race still, you wonder if this edition of pcm will play to his strengths after admittedly pre 2013 versions seem to screw him over sometimes. Old man Schleck may not quite be in the knackers yard yet and of course we now have a new Red Bull cash boosted luxembourger in Gastauer. Swift will challenge in all the sprint head to heads with Van der Lijke bought in as a big lead out deluxe. Some solid additions to an already prize - winning squad.
Reality check: Big favourites for the PT title - especially as they now have hammered out their biggest challenger! Still new threats will threaten to extinct this volcano and as had been hinted they may not have the TdF winners booty to call upon with Andy looking to complete the set. All four leaders could do well but they could underwhelm equally. As pointed out last year sometimes the luck factor of what the minor riders do can help PT title cause. Still big favourites for the title.
VW:
I think this team have improved quite a lot from a team scrapping for relegation into solid top ten team. Under the table sort of leaders in Denifl, Cleays, Zepunkte and Zabel are backed up with really strong points scorers in Flugal, Monsalve and Preidler. This team look a bit like I expect Quickstep and Venchi to go next year. Should be an exciting season here for VW with guys capable of striking all over the place.
Reality check: This team have no relegation fears this year but possibly lack a single winner that will mean missing out on really big points. Denifl was a wee bit expensive but a MO boost offsets that, managed to offload some of the old relegation beaters from last year that is also good work. Heine and me have been around for the same amount of time and its good to see him clamber up the greasy pole with me - my opinion my fall though if VW start trumping the Red Bull clan
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| Smowz |
Posted on 07-06-2015 11:45
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Team Leader
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PT Rankings Predo
1. Festina
2. Vesuvio
3. Red Bull
4. Becherovka
5. Tinkoff
I am going to give high predo's to the two infamous tinkermen SotD and Yours truly. Both need some luck though to beat the teams of Trofitruffles and Bewbastard. Vesuvio probably are likely to win - but I have this feeling that Spilak will be a bit of a classics raider this time. This may just push his team high - then again Ricco is a prat so... annoyingly he will do well.
6. Pokerstars
7. Aker
8. Good Energy
9. VolksWagen
10. Project numbers
Yeah the same sort of teams that we would expect from last year plus improved VW. Pokerstars minus Boonen will feel empty somehow and Good Energy may find greater competition from their fantastic all round strength this year.
11. UBS
12. Bouygues
13. Metinvest
14. Venchi
15. Quickstep
Metinvest have the golden free agent in Pluichkin for me - I have this feeling he will win this year TdF this should at least guarentee a high finish possibly higher. Venchi and QS also have the Golden shot in former GT winners Phinney and Madrazo and importantly something else in their lockers that keeps them nicely afloat.
16. Orange
17. Bacardi
18. Oz Cycling
19. Movistar
20. Meiji
21. Jim Bowen
22. Ice cream
Here we go then - Bacardi ended up with losers prize in Tenorio but he has a good Vuelta course so they could well be okay. Barring the I've eaten too much ice cream team Orange are possibly weakest of the old PT brigade. They could be looking over their shoulder again. Oz Cycling could be the Rothaus of the year forever looking a bit cruddy (and endless unfunny jibes from me ) but somehow close to staying up - ending in glorious failure.
The obvious 'look at what you could have won' Jim Bowen tribute team and Pendletons are surely big favourites for a visit to the PCT ranks - I cannot see how Meiji or Movistar have quite got the guys to score big enough to hold out either. They will be close I think a bit of a six or seven dust off between 14th/15th and 20th.
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| SotD |
Posted on 07-06-2015 12:16
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World Champion
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I'll happily take that win, although I can't see it happen
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 07-06-2015 15:03
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 27880
Joined: 20-10-2006
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Survival = I'm happy. Nice previews, Smowz |
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