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Tour de France Discussion
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| roturn |
Posted on 05-12-2014 14:50
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2 ITT (flat/mountain)
1 TTT
8 Flat stages
6 Mountain stages (4 MTF)
4 Hill Stages (2 MTF)
In short we have a pretty flat first week in the Bretagne. Then the huge hill and mountain stages will follow in most parts of the next two weeks.
The longer route preview can be found here: https://pcmdaily.c...rowstart=0
| Year | 1. | 2. | 3. | | 2013 |  Madrazo |  Cunego |  A.Schleck | | 2012 | Cunego | Madrazo |  Pluchkin | | 2011 |  Spilak |  Dekker |  Popovych | | 2010 |  Fothen |  Devolder | Spilak | | 2009 | Devolder | F.Schleck |  Gadret | | 2008 | F.Schleck | Di Luca | Valverde | | 2007 | Moreau |  Vinokourov |  Leipheimer |
Except for Cunego and Popovych the last three podiums are all contesting to be there again alongside the 2010 winner Fothen. The missing of the Italian might be quite surprising for some as he did so well in previous seasons. But apparently he did focus on the Giro this season to make him even more a Giro legend as he already is.
Also two times winner of the point jersey Tom Boonen and 2011 winner Bennati are at the start looking to contest for the point jersey one more time.
| Mo | Hi | TT |  Spilak | 85 | 80 | 77 |  Madrazo | 85 | 76 | 77 |  Pluchkin | 85 | 75 | 79 |  Schleck | 85 | 75 | 74 |  Amador | 84 | 75 | 78 | | Tenorio | 83 | 76 | 80 |
This is one hell of top climbers. 4x85 plus the very strong Amador and Tenorio as Santander`s "Co-Leader". Last years winner Madrazo surely the top favourite again even though the others got stronger this season, which in especially means Spilak, Pluchkin and Amador. Hard to say weak to a 85 climber, but actually Schleck looks the weakest of this top6 here with the weakest TT stat, but due to one TTT and one mountain ITT it`s only about one flat ITT anyway and in terms of regeneration he seems to have advantages.
Looking at the most recent performances we surely must mention Andy Schleck, who just dominated in the Tour de Suisse. He finished ahead of Amador, who had a solid race as well looking in form for the Tour de France.
Spilak on the other hand was beaten in the Dauphine finishing as 2nd, which might be considered disappointing. Still 2nd in a preperation race looks solid.
With Santander taking a 3rd in the previous 2 GT`s so far with Madrazo and Tenorio each, Pluchkin did beat them as 2nd in the Giro. So all 3 had nice GT experience already in 2014.
Well. And even though those 6 look superior to the rest we have a very long list of more 80+ climbers, who are expected to fight for the top positions.
| Mo | Hi | TT |  Intxausti | 82 | 71 | 77 | | Úran | 82 | 74 | 78 |  Taaramäe | 82 | 78 | 80 |  Sicard | 82 | 78 | 76 |  Henao Montoya | 82 | 71 | 71 |  Dekker | 82 | 76 | 79 |  Kritskiy | 82 | 75 | 79 |  Phinney | 82 | 77 | 83 |  Fothen | 81 | 74 | 77 | | Ratiy | 80 | 70 | 74 |  Kohl | 80 | 74 | 70 |  Marquez | 80 | 71 | 70 | | Suaza | 80 | 65 | 73 |
We start with the Bacardi Wildcard duo, who might steal some PT team points here. Definitely one of the strongest duos in the whole race.
Then some riders who clearly can challenge for the podium despite being weaker climbers. These are the French GT hope Sicard as also Phinney and Taaramae. All three shouldn`t be much weaker than the top guys and could give them a nice fight.
And not to forget about Dekker, Kritskiy or Henao Montoya.
The last rows are former Tour winner Fothen, who will have to hugely overperform to repeat his 2010 victory as also other top10 riders such as Kohl or Marquez. Suaza and Ratiy might have helper task, which might ruin their own GC chances.
We have already talked about the Dauphinee. It was Taaramae, who did beat the stronger climber Spilak. So watch out for the Estionian when talking about the race podium. Dekker as 3rd showed decent form as well, while Kritskiy (7th in Suisse) or Sicard (5th in Dauphinee) might have needed this last race for their final form.
And even though we already have 19 80+ riders, there might still be some weaker climbers, who hope to grab a surprising top10 or at least a solid top20.
Those are:
| Mo | Hi | TT |  Keizer | 79 | 71 | 81 | | Valls | 79 | 75 | 72 | | Keinath | 79 | 76 | 75 |  Monsalve | 79 | 74 | 70 | | Pinot | 79 | 74 | 65 |  König | 77 | 75 | 74 |  Scarponi | 77 | 75 | 66 | | Siutsou | 77 | 74 | 70 | | Kolesnikov | 77 | 72 | 72 | | Talansky | 77 | 73 | 70 |
Yes. It`s indeed the 3rd Santander rider already and also the others are real mountain goats, which make them the top favourite for the team ranking as well.
But having helper tasks the bigger favourites for the better positions are the actual team leaders in that list. Keizer, who has one of the best TT stats of all favourites, Monsalve, who lacks that strength or the weaker climbers König and Scarponi. All others could join the top15-25 but a lot depends on the work they have to do.
| Sp | Acc |  Bennati | 83 | 76 |  Boonen | 83 | 80 | | Guarnieri | 82 | 81 |  Van Heerden | 82 | 73 | | Vantomme | 82 | 78 | | Howard | 80 | 79 | | Tzortzakis | 80 | 77 | | Zabel | 79 | 77 | | Croket | 79 | 71 | | Rowe | 79 | 80 | | Bouhanni | 78 | 75 | | Nizzolo | 78 | 77 |
Former point ranking winners Bennati and Boonen are still the best sprinters in 2014 despite being the oldest sprinters in the field with 34!
Behind them lots of mid 20`s, who will try to take over.
Those are in especially Guarniere, Van Heerden or wildcard sprinter Vantomme.
But also the next with Howard, Tzortzakis or Zabel are solid sprinters, while the remaining need a perfect day.
| Hi | | Froome | 81 | | Ulissi | 80 | | Levarlet | 79 | | Roux | 78 | | Vanendert | 78 | | Bilbao | 77 | | Diggle | 77 |
Those will most likely go stage hunting in the hillier stages in case the GC riders allow it of course.
Last but not least the time trialists even though they will only have one real chance. But some riders are here just for this one stage mainly and then also have to fight against the GC riders like Phinney, who obviously is one of the best time trialists himself.
| TT |  Coppel | 83 | | Fiedler | 83 |  Cornu | 81 | | Zabriskie | 81 | | Kittel | 81 | | Sergent | 80 | | Schädlich | 80 | | Van Winden | 80 |
French star Coppel surely the rider, who wants the stage win. Phinney and Fiedler might be his biggest opponents.
And to reward their lineup here the full ING team around French super star Sicard. Instead of a good mountain squad he has to live with an incredible TTT lineup, which might favour them in the opening TTT of course.
| Fiedler | 83 | | Zabriskie | 81 | | Van Winden | 80 | | Rolland | 77 | | Navardauskas | 77 | | Sicard | 76 | | Bouet | 76 | | Clement | 75 |
Hard to see past them in the TTT and maximum Bpost coming any close in terms of stats.
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| rycadinho |
Posted on 05-12-2014 14:55
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Great preview roturn!
The season has really been build around the tour and a stage win plus a strong showing of Sicard is a must!
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| Dippofix |
Posted on 05-12-2014 15:06
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Classics Specialist
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Gotta support Pluchkin here after his bad luck last time around... also nice to see Martyn Irvine make it to Le Tour after coming so, so close to signing him in the offseason.
And didn't it start in Brittany last year too? Couldn't you find a more interesting location? 
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| beagle |
Posted on 05-12-2014 15:23
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Nice bunch of climbing monsters here
Looking at my team, that´s great example of awful planning. Bonnen will have to ride on his own, his support team looks very poor. What for I was thinking while planning??
And of course, great preview, roturn!
Manager of Polar in Man-Game
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| Heine |
Posted on 05-12-2014 16:03
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4470
Joined: 08-04-2007
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I turned blind? Can't find my team on the startlist pic
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| Smowz |
Posted on 05-12-2014 16:08
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Team Leader
Posts: 6386
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Here is the dream:
Decent opening TTT - not going to beat the uber teams (ING and Bpost) but a respectable 5th or so within striking range of jersey.
Then look at stage 2 run in ... late attack by rouler (Coppel preferably) and snatch the jersey.
The long ITT is the big aim for Coppel other than that breakaway city please 
Hang on where is tsmoha ... only joking great to see roturn on Tour duty good luck mate.
Prediction for top 3 GC:
1. Pluchkin
2. Spilak
3. Madrazo
Should be interesting to see where Tenorio ends up.
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| Forever the Best |
Posted on 05-12-2014 16:19
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3785
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My predictions:
1 Spilak
2 Pluchkin
3 Madrazo
4 Amador
5 Schleck
6 Phinney
7 Taaramae
8 Tenorio
9 Dekker
10 Sicard
11 Kritskiy
12 Uran
13 Intxausti
14 Fothen
15 Henao
The user formerly known as 'The Schleck Fan'
Gracias Alberto.
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| ember |
Posted on 05-12-2014 16:19
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Team Leader
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And here it is! Really looking forward for the battle between all the GC riders that have dared to line up here.
After Schleck's showing in Suisse, there's really no doubt he's a huge threat despite his weaker TT. Though, he wasn't up against any of his fellow 85 climber riders there.
The obvious pick is (as always after his training) Spilak due to his incredible combination of abilites in the mountains, hills and on the time trial bike. Would be great to see the Slovenian win it as a former Aker-MOT rider.
But the early 55 kilometers ITT is a big plus for especially Pluchkin and Phinney. I doubt the American can do like he did in last year's Giro, but Pluchkin could force himself into a great position before the mountains thanks to that TT. B&O shouldn't lose much in the team time trial as well, and if I have to pick one favourite before the race, I think I'll go with Pluchkin.
For ourselves it's telling that the AI rates us as the weakest team looking at the startlist. I had to put very few resources into one of the GT's and the Tour felt like the natural one thinking of all the top class riders who were likely to be here. Van Heerden hasn't proven anything at all this season, but the weaker sprint field compared to previous races could maybe see him grab one or two top 5's. Other than that I can only hope for Levarlet to get involved in breakaways, as I doubt he'll have a say versus the favourites on the hilly stages if he tries to stay with them.
Big thanks for the preview, roturn. Really looking forward to the reports despite not having the greatest ambitions for my own team
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 05-12-2014 16:49
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Sprinter
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Great preview roturn. It's really hard to pick a favorite here, as Madrazo/Spilak/Pluchkin look fairly evenly matched. Amador should slot in behind them and Schleck, if things go well. It may hurt here not having a strong mountains helper since our best is Frank at 76. Looking forward to this!
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| FroomeDog99 |
Posted on 05-12-2014 16:53
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Should be a good one. Could be any of four riders I think with Pluchkin, Spilak, Madrazo and Tenorio all contenders. The winner could hinge on the time trials, with them all similar in the mountains.
Looking forward to the reports Roturn, should be a treat. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 08-12-2025 04:14
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| roturn |
Posted on 05-12-2014 16:57
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Team Manager
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My goals for this race:
GC top20
Stage win
Sprint top10
Breakaways/KoM
Scoring wise a Giro like performance would be nice as it's the strongest squad of all GCs.
Seeing the start list having a Vuelta scoring seems more probable.
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| Alakagom |
Posted on 05-12-2014 17:04
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World Champion
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It's here. Should be a great one.
Looking forward to our PT debut. It's been a long journey from unofficial Div2 opening through PCT. 
I'd be disappointed if we came away without stage win really. I don't care about GC at all, Marquez can do a Gomez Marchante if he so wants His acceleration could be useful on less selective mountain stages. I doubt Froome does anything of note, but if he does he could target a stage win somwhere.
Vantomme has nice flat support, but not a fast leadout man, could prove troublesome, hoping he gets +5 daily form on one of the stages and snatches a podium, but stage win should be within reach with bit of luck. Baugnies and especially De Maar are nice riders for breaks so hopefully they make few.
Just hoping we loose a ton in the opening TTT so our team doesn't hold back and attacks at most possible opportunities
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 05-12-2014 17:17
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A top 10 seems virtually impossible for Henao. Hopefully he will go for a stage win and the polka dots.
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| Roman |
Posted on 05-12-2014 17:21
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Wow, what a startlist! It is going to be one hell of a battle for the places in the GC. Thankfully I will not have to root for my rider, as I don't expect anything big here from König, I sent him here as my main climber with an idea he could hopefully get himself to the breakaways and go for polka-dot jersey and hunt stages, but he could even get me absolutely nothing as well, anything from him will be a big bonus, as well from Kratochvila. I will root for my former guys Uran and Henao, but let's say it would be nice to see Andy Schleck winning the Tour on the road at least in the Man-Game.
But the main hope for me here is Leigh Howard, a few top 10 results is a must, a couple of podiums would be a nice result. It will be interesting to see how sprints will look here as Pokerstars traing seems to be much worse than elsewhere. Still my possible train Gough-Vesely-Howard will be probably non-existant in a hard race like this. Hopefully at least Sergent will help chasing breaks in flat races and will try to get a nice result in the only flat time trial. Still I will probably be more of an only watcher in this race though, it is going to be a great race. I really enjoyed this preview, roturn - I already can't wait for the first stage now! 
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| TheManxMissile |
Posted on 05-12-2014 17:25
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 17833
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Heine wrote:
I turned blind? Can't find my team on the startlist pic
Not just you
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 05-12-2014 17:28
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Directeur Sportif
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Can't spot your team in the startlist either 
Cool straight preview and i also love the somehow "classic" look of the profiles with an all-flat first week to see sprinters and TTlers get their fame, hopefully. Cheering for Spilak here, even though i would love stories like Dekker or Schleck going to repeat previous success here. Should be fun anyway. Let's hope for some epic battles like we have recently seen in Dauphine. Really enjoyed Spilak and Taaramae there. A comeback for Spilak would just be a cool story i've been taking about.
Oh, and let's go Quickstep! Also some special cheers for Rothaus
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| roturn |
Posted on 05-12-2014 17:42
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I think another team is also missing. There was an issue with the start list at first. Apparently the old screenshot made it into the preview. But your team is there with Monsalve. |
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| Smowz |
Posted on 05-12-2014 17:42
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Team Leader
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Well Wikipedia are not on that startlist either - hope Roturn noticed!
I just noticed Alakagom has got a secret weapon, keeping low key in pre race interviews...
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 05-12-2014 18:35
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Superb preview, roturn, thanks
My top5 goal here is completely unrealistic now, without Machado. We'll be riding for an optimistic top10 and perhaps a stage victory. But obviously it'll be very hard to walk away from France with a decent amount of points.
On the other hand, our lanterne rouge rivals, ING, have a unique chance here to overtake us, with the predictably considerable sum they'll make in the first week alone. From then on it obviously becomes substantially more random, but I can see Sicard finishing around 5-8th.
As for victor, my bet will be Andy. He's shown great form recently and since the Tour doesn't like to see his winners doubling their victories I'm going to place my hypothetical money on the Luxembourgian.
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| Forever the Best |
Posted on 05-12-2014 18:52
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3785
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Smowz wrote:
Well Wikipedia are not on that startlist either - hope Roturn noticed!
I just noticed Alakagom has got a secret weapon, keeping low key in pre race interviews...
Super XD
The user formerly known as 'The Schleck Fan'
Gracias Alberto.
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