Stage 6 Sergey Firsanov over Gianluca Brambilla @ 2.30
Maxime Monfort over Darwin Atapuma @ 2.05
Domenico Pozzovivo over Rafal Majka @ 2.45
Tim Wellens Win @ 25 Georg Preidler Win @ 80
Trying my luck today as well.
Stage 7
Elia Viviani over Sonny Colbrelli @ 2.33
Sacha Modolo over Giacomo Nizzolo @ 2.25
Rick Zabel over Alexey Tsatevich @ 1.77
Thanks! Glad to see others play as well. To be completely honest, I even threw 50 after Greipel at odds 6 since I thought Kittel would be dropped - sometimes, you need a little luck, I definitely had that yesterday.
Unfortunately I haven't been able to play yesterday so the best odds are gone. Saw Fuglsang over Nibali at 2,80 at bet365. But here goes.
Despite yesterday being Porsev day, as I predicted, Tsatevich decided to defy crash pains and lead out duties and stay in the top 10 as well.
Stage 7 Elia Viviani over Sonny Colbrelli @ 2.33 Sacha Modolo over Giacomo Nizzolo @ 2.25
Rick Zabel over Alexey Tsatevich @ 1.77
Throwing in a few long shots today. Anything can happen.
We learn something every day: always play against Colbrelli on pure sprint stages. He doesn't bother. Surprised that the bookies haven't found out yet...
Despite yesterday being Porsev day, as I predicted, Tsatevich decided to defy crash pains and lead out duties and stay in the top 10 as well.
Stage 7 Elia Viviani over Sonny Colbrelli @ 2.33 Sacha Modolo over Giacomo Nizzolo @ 2.25
Rick Zabel over Alexey Tsatevich @ 1.77
Throwing in a few long shots today. Anything can happen.
We learn something every day: always play against Colbrelli on pure sprint stages. He doesn't bother. Surprised that the bookies haven't found out yet...
It's even more true considering that Ruffoni is their man for flat sprints. However, that line of thought got me into trouble with Tsatevich.
I saw your Kruijswijk/Chaves bet on bet365. If I was playing there, I'd definitely had gone for that one. Very good value.
Riis123 wrote:
Yep, should've played more on today. Where are you playing?
Betsson.com. It's a bit random. They're one of the very few sites where I can use my Norwegian bank card to make deposits/withdrawals. But they seem to have good odds and the occasional interesting cycling play.
Obviously, to maximise winnings, one should play with as many bookies as possible. A few years back I made quite a good profit betting on cycling, but as I'm currently on a snail-paced Chinese internet connection with a VPN, I don't bother resurrecting my complicated system for managing deposits/withdrawals to get around Norwegian laws for the time being.
DuQuaz wrote:
When is bet365 normally opening up for specials to the following day's Giro Stage?
Around 7-8pm London time
Lost quite a bit today on some football i dont know anything about, but hopefully ill win it back on Eurovision which I know even less about. Slippery slope?
DuQuaz wrote:
When is bet365 normally opening up for specials to the following day's Giro Stage?
Around 7-8pm London time
Lost quite a bit today on some football i dont know anything about, but hopefully ill win it back on Eurovision which I know even less about. Slippery slope?
I will rumble a bit tonight on Eurovision, otherwise it gets too boring to watch with the family
Also looking forward to the H-2-H for tommorow, should be very interesting.
DuQuaz wrote:
When is bet365 normally opening up for specials to the following day's Giro Stage?
Around 7-8pm London time
Lost quite a bit today on some football i dont know anything about, but hopefully ill win it back on Eurovision which I know even less about. Slippery slope?
I will rumble a bit tonight on Eurovision, otherwise it gets too boring to watch with the family
Also looking forward to the H-2-H for tommorow, should be very interesting.
Look for Ludvigsson, Amador, Hesjedal and Boaro. Go go!
Stage 8 Przemyslaw Niemiec Win @ 50
Alessandro De Marchi Win @ 23
Matteo Busato Win @ 40
Matteo Trentin Win @ 65
Carlos Betancur Win @ 40 Sergey Firsanov over Bob Jungels @ 2.45
Profitable day. Stage win was always gonna go to Brambilla once he made the break.
Stage 9
Rigoberto Uran over Jakob Fuglsang @ 1.85
Maxime Monfort over Rein Taaramae @ 2.25
Stefan Kung over Bob Jungels @ 2.30
Rigoberto Uran Win @ 35
Bob Jungels Win @ 11
Stefan Kung Win @9.50
My bookie had a very juicy looking Valverde/Nibali h2h with great odds for Valverde which I was too slow to get on before they took it away.
Edited by Squire on 15-05-2016 11:15
Sorry for not throwing my odds in here yesterday, very hectic day with a huge amounts of money lost on football and eurovision, god bless, coupled with alcohol.
But anyways, here they are. Extremely good day - best day so far. Over 1000 DKK up today:
Formolo wins the white jersey @ 4,00
Zakarin win the overall @ 19,00
Valverde ends in top 3 @ 3,00
The last was was played in the wake of Roccaraso while the 2 others are available now. The point is I guess, bookmakers are overreacting quite a bit just after a stage, fx., Zakarin was odds 9 after Roccaraso, but have now dropped so much due to a few crashes and 1 minute lost Its no biggie.
Similarly, Jungels did on well of an ITT and he might very well win, but the odds doesn't reflect is that well. We haven't had a decent mountain stage yet and Jungels ass is a bit bigger than Formolos.
Movistar wins team GC @Â 3,75
Astana is hugely favoured, a bit too much IMO considering Amador and Movistars tradition of hunting the team GC.
Dumoulin wins mountain jersey @ 201,00
Wants to target stages.... why not, heh.
Edited by Riis123 on 16-05-2016 00:29
Nibali > Kruiswijk @ 2,00
A very good stage for Nibali. I think the rest day will do wonders against a hot Kruijswijk. Not super value really, but I think Nibali should be the favourite in this duel.
... and just realised I had a bit money left at Unibet. So here goes.
Fuglsang > Dumoulin @ 1,95
Insane value! Tom D is empty and wants to chase stage wins, so he could lose chunks of time tomorrow.
Hesjedal > Siutsou @ 1,80
Hesjedal only gets better and Sioutsou stunk it up in the ITT.
Edited by Riis123 on 16-05-2016 13:03
Impressive stuff on the TT stage! You seem to be doing well at the moment.
Now, let me be bold enough to disagree with most of your recent bets.
Of your stage 10 head to heads, I see the rider you've betted against as the favourite in all of them. The bookies seem to agree, obviously, and I understand that the odds make them attractive, but I don't really see you doing better than breaking even there (i.e. two are succesful, assuming the same stakes all over).
Movistar for the Team GC is okay value, and Formolo for white as well (but I'd favour Verona). I think Zakarin is a waste of money. I read somewhere on the cyclingnews forum that among the riders who have been top 10 in Romandie, only two (?) in the last ten years have gone on to a top 10 in the Giro (Porte and Menchov, I think). Additionally, Zakarin is rather unproven in both high mountains and three week tours (but that's also a potentially profitable side of gamling, of course).
But you've had more success than me so far, so I should most likely just shut up
I dno, I didn't really find any odds super impressive, so I have only played 100 DKK on each bet. On the contrary, I played 500 DKK on Amador against Kangert yesterday at 1,83 which was a completely gift!
I have rule that I play whatever I feels looks juicy when I first look, sorta of a play what the first impression tells you.
I without a doubt think Movistar is great value.
Formolo, dno, I have Jungels as top-10 and white jersey at some odds you can find on page 1, so I'd win much more if Jungles goes well. I actually also have Verona, but probably not more than 20 DKK.
Zakarin is the kind of rider like Porte I feel like. There is a decent probability that he will drop completely out of top-10 or go full retard and win - and after yesterdays ITT, his odds rose immensely and we all know it will be decided in the high mountains anyways!
