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Tour of Ukraine Discussion
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| ember |
Posted on 28-11-2025 06:30
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The Tour of Ukraine is here. The last three seasons this race have been dominated by those who can handle the time trial bike, maybe more than ever last season. 2022 and 2019 stand out for historic reasons, with the legends Taylor Phinney and Aleksandr Pluchkin winning all three stages, completely dominating the opposition and race.
Profile wise, we get served a difficult punchy prologue, a difficult looking hilly stage, but including a downhill finish, and the final flat 26 kilometers long time trial, but also including a few small speed bumps.
There is no point running around the bush anymore, we jump straight to the best TTers present. Wurtz showed last season with his 2nd place overall that even the pure TTers stand a chance here.
| MO | MM | HI | TT | RS | ACC | PRL |  Wirtgen | 78 | 77 | 75 | 84 | 75 | 72 | 80 | | Würtz | 67 | 69 | 71 | 83 | 78 | 70 | 79 |  Dunbar | 77 | 77 | 76 | 82 | 77 | 68 | 77 |  Bernal | 82 | 78 | 74 | 81 | 80 | 69 | 76 |  Kmieliauskas | 70 | 70 | 70 | 81 | 71 | 69 | 81 | | Mullen | 62 | 66 | 70 | 81 | 74 | 70 | 78 |  Powless | 78 | 75 | 72 | 80 | 74 | 71 | 78 |  Bjerg | 64 | 66 | 68 | 80 | 77 | 70 | 79 | | Beniusis | 69 | 65 | 60 | 80 | 73 | 67 | 78 |
9 riders with 80 or more for a TT stat. That surely counts for something when the race will be decided on the final day. Some of them will need to be clever and maybe even lucky on stage 2, though, if they are going to compete for a race podium.
| MO | MM | HI | TT | RS | ACC | PRL | | Bernal | 82 | 78 | 74 | 81 | 80 | 69 | 76 |  Schmid | 76 | 78 | 79 | 68 | 78 | 79 | 66 |  Oomen | 81 | 78 | 75 | 74 | 77 | 69 | 77 |  Jorgenson | 79 | 78 | 77 | 76 | 78 | 71 | 75 | | Wirtgen | 78 | 77 | 75 | 84 | 75 | 72 | 80 | | Dunbar | 77 | 77 | 76 | 82 | 77 | 68 | 77 | | Mohoric | 71 | 77 | 83 | 64 | 72 | 77 | 64 |  Evenepoel | 76 | 77 | 77 | 79 | 81 | 71 | 79 |  Phinney | 81 | 77 | 73 | 79 | 68 | 69 | 79 | | Geoghegan Hart | 79 | 77 | 74 | 78 | 74 | 69 | 76 |  Ranaweera | 80 | 77 | 73 | 76 | 75 | 65 | 73 |  Ndayisenga | 78 | 77 | 75 | 65 | 68 | 73 | 65 |
Stage 2 looks more for the MM stat than the hill stat, but that is only a wild guess. Schmid must fancy his chances for a stage podium no matter what stat proves most important, but he must pray for favourable positioning at the foot of the final climb. If the TTers are treated as the GC riders here, he could well struggle to be at the front when things look to be decided on stage 2. Oomen, Ndayisenga and Mohoric also deserve to be mentioned here, as they look to be riders more for stage 2 than the GC, unless we of course get a very selective stage 2. Oomen can still race for the GC with his decent TT, while Mohoric and Ndayisenga surely must get creative to try to bring their teams glory on that particular stage.
The GC favourites, then! Wurtz proved last season that those pureish TTers also stand a chance, but he isn't on the following list, as I must admit I hope the hilly stage gives us some kind of gaps. Here's the list of contenders, admittedly wild guessing!
| MO | MM | HI | TT | RS | ACC | PRL | | Wirtgen | 78 | 77 | 75 | 84 | 75 | 72 | 80 | | Dunbar | 77 | 77 | 76 | 82 | 77 | 68 | 77 | | Bernal | 82 | 78 | 74 | 81 | 80 | 69 | 76 | | Powless | 78 | 75 | 72 | 80 | 74 | 71 | 78 | | Evenepoel | 76 | 77 | 77 | 79 | 81 | 71 | 79 | | Phinney | 81 | 77 | 73 | 79 | 68 | 69 | 79 | | Geoghegan Hart | 79 | 77 | 74 | 78 | 74 | 69 | 76 |  Leknessund | 78 | 76 | 74 | 78 | 81 | 69 | 78 |  Ioannidis | 75 | 74 | 73 | 78 | 74 | 70 | 76 | | Munton | 74 | 74 | 73 | 78 | 74 | 64 | 77 | | Kiriakidis | 74 | 74 | 73 | 78 | 73 | 71 | 76 | | Fernandes | 75 | 73 | 70 | 77 | 77 | 67 | 77 | | Jorgenson | 79 | 78 | 77 | 76 | 78 | 71 | 75 | | Ranaweera | 80 | 77 | 73 | 76 | 75 | 65 | 73 | | Darbellay | 79 | 75 | 71 | 76 | 75 | 65 | 76 | | Stüssi | 79 | 76 | 73 | 75 | 73 | 66 | 69 | | Firdaus | 77 | 75 | 73 | 75 | 76 | 72 | 75 | | Oomen | 81 | 78 | 75 | 74 | 77 | 69 | 77 | | Aleotti | 74 | 76 | 78 | 74 | 77 | 75 | 73 |  Arensman | 79 | 76 | 73 | 74 | 77 | 68 | 74 | | Lasinis | 79 | 76 | 72 | 74 | 72 | 68 | 74 |
The depth is insane, no less, really. Wirtgen stands out as the obvious favourite, just like he does in any TT race he enters this season. However, all of Dunbar, Bernal and Powless must fancy their chances to beat him, as their TT is that good that it won't take something sensational on the hilly stage to put them in a position to fight for the race win on the final day. Evenepoel has shown his amazing class on several occasions this year, and he's definitely a rider the others must have taken note of now. His backup stats combined with his flat stat makes him a very dangerous guy here too, it feels like.
The race is reported by AbhishekLFC.
Startlist
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 28-11-2025 07:20
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Grand Tour Champion
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Another race where we have stage more than GC ambitions, and with Bjerg we have two chances this time. Otherwise it's a development race as none of the riders has any ambitions for the hilly stage unless PCM does PCM things
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 28-11-2025 07:21
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Tour de France Champion
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Oomen had some weird races here in the past, let's hope he does well on stage 2 this time.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| hillis91 |
Posted on 28-11-2025 07:41
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I was hoping for a sneaky top 10.
Looking at the field, i guess not.
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 28-11-2025 07:56
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3219
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We had different plans in transfers but now we're here hoping for a single point.
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| Heine |
Posted on 28-11-2025 08:19
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 4461
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How hard will the hill be? Will be really interesting to see this one. Ofc Wirtgen is the big favorite, but maybe, just maybe Evenpoel or someone could do something fun on stage 2
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 28-11-2025 09:43
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Ranaweera is our only chance for a good GC result here. We obviously weren't the only ones with the idea of sending his kind of rider though, so this could also end as a really low-scoring race.
Thanks for the preview, ember!
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| ember |
Posted on 29-11-2025 08:12
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Must admit this is our big, big no show race this season. No Valter/Romo, and no TTer makes it kind of difficult  Hoping for breakaway participation on stage 2! |
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| SotD |
Posted on 29-11-2025 08:45
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Given the relatively short history with the AI, I suspect we are going to do nothing here. While if we had Kinoshita, we might have positionened Kiriakidis and Ioannidis reasonably well in the GC.
Time to buy a lottery ticket.
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 29-11-2025 10:04
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Thanks for the report, Abhi, and congrats Eden for the win!
Ranaweera in 4th was quite a nice surprise and bodes well for his positioning in stage 2. And we haven't been 5th in the team classification after a TT stage that often (if ever), so the start was really well.
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| SotD |
Posted on 29-11-2025 13:59
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Wirtgen surprisingly weak here.
Our riders aproximately where I would have expected.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 05-12-2025 10:10
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 29-11-2025 14:16
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Not the best start, let's hope the AI likes Oomen tomorrow.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| quadsas |
Posted on 29-11-2025 14:48
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That was very bad no good, but I'll chalk it up to the incline and expect something better on S3
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 29-11-2025 15:04
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Bjerg's non-mention was unfortunately not out of character with the steep climb at the end. Hoping the final time trial will be kinder on him
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 29-11-2025 22:30
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Wirtgen not winning here feels weird. It looks like the mountain stat had quite a big impact on the results so given that I am quite happy with how it turned out for Remco.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 29-11-2025 23:12
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Sorry for my recent disappearance, will be catching up on things today.
Thank you for the lovely preview also! Big race for us, Dunbar coming off a huge win in PN is met by tweedledum and tweedldee once again (Wirtgen and Würtz) and alongside some other names on the startlist, it could be a difficult race. Bernal is still terrifying, Evenpoel has been great so far and also this is trained Powless’ first outing against Dunbar and Wirtgen (?) so a lot of potential for a fun race.
We have a very strong team here with Stüssi and Firdaus here as well that could be top-10 or top-20 contenders in their own right. Hoping for a hard day on the hilly stage to distance the pure TT riders and a good outing from us.
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 29-11-2025 23:23
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Well, that’s certainly a surprise! Not sure how Dunbar managed to beat Wirtgen so convincingly here, but I’ll take it  Great result, Dunbar continuing his great run of form this season so far. Long may it continue
Bernal putting in a great ride, as did Evenpoel, Ranaweera and Phinney. Hoping for an explosive stage 2, we have a very strong team here so hopefully we’re able to control things until the last km’s.
Thanks for the report!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| roturn |
Posted on 30-11-2025 08:34
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Very good start. 3rd is probably the maximum in such field. The next stage is the important one, where Phinney just stay with the best. Being high in GC surely should help him against more explosive riders.
Thanks for the report. |
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| whitejersey |
Posted on 30-11-2025 17:17
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Congrats to alex on another monster ride from Remco, that final TT will be massively intriguing now!
Also love the fact that we somehow managed to avoid a 0 pointer with a solid breakaway move from La Grenade! Should mean we are going to get around 38 points from this race which could have been so much worse!
Thanks for the report!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 30-11-2025 17:22
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Tour de France Champion
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Not too bad!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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