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Japan Cup - Discussion
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| ivaneurope |
Posted on 25-05-2025 08:57
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Classics Specialist
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 Japan Cup
Kon'nichiwa from Japan for the Japan Cup - the final PTHC race of the season and the penultimate race in the PT calendar. This race will present one last opportunity for both PCT and PT teams to steal ranking points from one another and for some it may change their destiny next season. The race is pretty straightforward though - 232 km criterium type race around the city of Tsukuba which favours the puncheurs. Last year Miguel Angel Lopez showed why he's the best puncheur in the MGUCI right now by winning this race in a final dash against Peter Sagan and Joseph Areruya. Now, the Evonik - ELKO rider is hoping to win in back-to-back years, but the competition will look to dethrone him. So, who are his main challengers according to the panel?
| Rider | MO | HI | ST | RS | AC |  Lopez | 80 | 84 | 76 | 74 | 78 |  Lutsenko | 73 | 83 | 76 | 73 | 81 |  Skujins | 69 | 82 | 79 | 76 | 75 |  Stannard | 73 | 81 | 75 | 76 | 78 |  Benoot | 75 | 81 | 75 | 74 | 71 |  Buchmann | 76 | 81 | 73 | 74 | 73 |  Areruya | 81 | 81 | 76 | 78 | 76 |  Valter | 78 | 80 | 76 | 75 | 78 |  Aranburu | 77 | 80 | 70 | 79 | 71 |  Vansevenant | 74 | 80 | 79 | 78 | 80 |  Ardila | 81 | 80 | 69 | 70 | 75 |  Higuita | 79 | 80 | 76 | 78 | 75 | | Müller | 67 | 80 | 76 | 71 | 73 | | Bobridge | 65 | 79 | 68 | 68 | 74 |  Gebrezgabihier | 70 | 79 | 74 | 74 | 69 |
It appears that once again MAL will be the primary target this race with Lutsenko once again tipped to be his main challenger. Last year the Kazakh rider, riding for the Gazelle team, finished in 15th place, 48 seconds behind MAL and he'll want to wipe out this disappointment. Skujins is ranked third in this prediction table, but many believe that his mountain stats may be detrimental to his chances of winning. The 3rd placed from last year - Areruya, is by far the next most balanced MO/HI rider after Lopez and he'll be be looking to do better this year.
| Rider | MO | HI | ST | RS | AC |  Schmid | 76 | 79 | 71 | 78 | 79 |  Turgis | 67 | 79 | 76 | 78 | 77 |  De Plus | 77 | 79 | 74 | 73 | 72 |  Kron | 71 | 79 | 75 | 75 | 73 |  Hirschi | 77 | 79 | 78 | 78 | 75 | | Trakhov | 69 | 79 | 78 | 74 | 75 |  Tesfatsion | 76 | 78 | 68 | 72 | 78 | | Gaudu | 71 | 78 | 78 | 75 | 70 | | Errazkin | 74 | 78 | 76 | 75 | 73 |  Sosa | 79 | 78 | 75 | 79 | 74 | | Champoussin | 78 | 78 | 76 | 76 | 76 | | Strakhov | 70 | 78 | 77 | 76 | 70 | | Bagioli | 71 | 77 | 76 | 72 | 76 |  Paret-Peintre | 76 | 77 | 73 | 75 | 74 | | Paulus | 74 | 77 | 71 | 68 | 71 |
If the conditions prove tricky and/or the top contenders hit trouble, these riders may have a shot for the top places here. But honestly, with MAL here, riders in this table will hope lady luck is on their side.
And here is the startlist as we hand over reporting duties to jt1109:
Spoiler Last name First name 2024 Team
Valter Attila Aker - MOT
Bagioli Nicola Aker - MOT
Bravo Edison Aker - MOT
Kamp Alexander Aker - MOT
Swift Connor Aker - MOT
Potts Marc Aker - MOT
Berwick Sebastian Aker - MOT
Veyhe Torkil Aker - MOT
Tesfatsion Natnael Bralirwa - Cegeka
Blouwe Louis Bralirwa - Cegeka
Kuypers Gerben Bralirwa - Cegeka
Van Eetvelt Lennert Bralirwa - Cegeka
Habimana Jean Eric Bralirwa - Cegeka
Kulindwa Lameck Marco Bralirwa - Cegeka
Huby Antoine Bralirwa - Cegeka
Ben Ameur Hatem Bralirwa - Cegeka
Aranburu Alex Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Olesen Patrick Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Sulvaran Gyasi Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Meiler Lukas Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Gregaard Jonas Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Matsangos Alexandros Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Arenas Rodriguez Jeremias Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Vainio Veeti Carlsberg - Danske Bank
Paret-Peintre Aurelien Ekoi - Le Creuset
Paulus Daniel Ekoi - Le Creuset
Le Gac Olivier Ekoi - Le Creuset
Oliveira Rui Ekoi - Le Creuset
Boileau Alan Ekoi - Le Creuset
Lapeira Paul Ekoi - Le Creuset
Garibian Arman Ekoi - Le Creuset
Vauquelin Kevin Ekoi - Le Creuset
Stannard Robert Everesting
Hindley Jai Everesting
Montenegro Santiago Everesting
Sunderland Dylan Everesting
Silva Thomas Everesting
Lau Wan Yau Everesting
Orosco Kemp Everesting
Phonarjthan Patompob Everesting
Lopez Miguel Angel Evonik - ELKO
Blums Martins Evonik - ELKO
Konrad Patrick Evonik - ELKO
Baroncini Filippo Evonik - ELKO
Gavars Eriks Toms Evonik - ELKO
Polanc Jan Evonik - ELKO
Krasts Alekss Evonik - ELKO
Vansevenant Mauri Fastned
Bobridge Jack Fastned
Bax Sjoerd Fastned
Denz Nico Fastned
De Kleijn Arvid Fastned
Lipowitz Florian Fastned
Guernalec Thibault Fastned
Hessmann Michel Fastned
Lutsenko Alexey Gazelle
Malecki Kamil Gazelle
Peters Nans Gazelle
Godon Dorian Gazelle
Nsengimana Jean Bosco Gazelle
Sosnitskiy Anatoliy Gazelle
Lander Sebastian Gazelle
Teunissen Mike Gazelle
Gebrezgabihier Amanuel Grieg-Maersk
Gaudu David Grieg-Maersk
Ssabagwanya Samuel Grieg-Maersk
Bazhkou Stanislau Grieg-Maersk
Brkic Benjamin Grieg-Maersk
Adria Roger Grieg-Maersk
Hulgaard Morten Grieg-Maersk
Vabo Tore Andre Grieg-Maersk
Schmid Mauro Jura GIANTS
Errazkin Xuban Jura GIANTS
Setiawa Andreas Odie Purnama Jura GIANTS
Rohendi Teten Jura GIANTS
Berthet Clement Jura GIANTS
Delco Lorenzo Jura GIANTS
Stehli Felix Jura GIANTS
Page Hugo Jura GIANTS
Turgis Anthony Kraftwerk Man Machine
Roson Jaime Kraftwerk Man Machine
Gall Felix Kraftwerk Man Machine
Destribois Alex Ariya Kraftwerk Man Machine
Ho Burr Kraftwerk Man Machine
Koch Michel Kraftwerk Man Machine
Dahl Olsen Gunnar Kraftwerk Man Machine
Kretschy Moritz Kraftwerk Man Machine
De Plus Laurens Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Covi Alessandro Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Fedeli Alessandro Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Calzoni Walter Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Van Den Bossche Fabio Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Piccolo Andrea Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Vandenabeele Henri Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Benedetti Gabriele Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Sosa Ivan McCormick Pro Cycling
Narvaez Jhonatan McCormick Pro Cycling
Seigle Roman McCormick Pro Cycling
Rota Lorenzo McCormick Pro Cycling
Mohammad Fikri Azka McCormick Pro Cycling
Staune-Mittet Johannes McCormick Pro Cycling
Julajuj Alex McCormick Pro Cycling
Barbier Pierre McCormick Pro Cycling
Ardila Andres Camilo MOL Cycling Team
Amezawa Takeaki MOL Cycling Team
Filutas Viktor MOL Cycling Team
Dina Marton MOL Cycling Team
Morales Ortega Jacob MOL Cycling Team
Rhim Brendan MOL Cycling Team
Carretero Millan Hector MOL Cycling Team
Gonzalez Abner MOL Cycling Team
Higuita Sergio Oxxo - Frisby
Beltran Guillermo Andres Oxxo - Frisby
Parashchak Yaroslav Oxxo - Frisby
Osorio Alejandro Oxxo - Frisby
Ulloa Jose Gerardo Oxxo - Frisby
Pira Yesid Albeiro Oxxo - Frisby
Eaton Daniel Oxxo - Frisby
Merchan Didier Oxxo - Frisby
Kron Andreas Rabobank
Champoussin Clement Rabobank
Sossa Juan Rabobank
Frigo Marco Rabobank
Van den Broek Frank Rabobank
Dima Emil Rabobank
Kalf Steven Rabobank
Van Den Berg Marijn Rabobank
Hirschi Marc Sauber Petronas Racing
Azman Muhamad Zawawi Sauber Petronas Racing
Pellaud Simon Sauber Petronas Racing
Frankiny Kilian Sauber Petronas Racing
Rossi Diego Sauber Petronas Racing
Skivild Robin Juel Sauber Petronas Racing
Tiberi Antonio Sauber Petronas Racing
Garofoli Gianmarco Sauber Petronas Racing
Benoot Tiesj Sony - Force India
Van Dijke Mick Sony - Force India
Hocevar Kristjan Sony - Force India
Van Dijke Tim Sony - Force India
Hayter Leo Sony - Force India
Franco Alejandro Sony - Force India
Kooistra Marten Sony - Force India
Alben Esow Sony - Force India
Meurisse Xandro Specialized
De Vos Adam Specialized
Medvedev Sergey Specialized
Kench Josh Specialized
Milan Jonathan Specialized
Marsman Tim Specialized
La Grenade Jeremie Specialized
Steinhauser Georg Specialized
Madouas Valentin Team Puma - SAP
Zwiehoff Ben Team Puma - SAP
Schinnagel Johannes Team Puma - SAP
Cemazar Nik Team Puma - SAP
Zegklis Nikolaos Team Puma - SAP
Van Wilder Ilan Team Puma - SAP
Stork Florian Team Puma - SAP
Wibisono Rachmad Noka Team Puma - SAP
Buchmann Emanuel Team UBS
Müller Patrick Team UBS
Badilatti Matteo Team UBS
Brun Nils Team UBS
Stöckli Jan Team UBS
Schelling Patrick Team UBS
Maciejuk Filip Team UBS
Jenni Luca Team UBS
Skujins Toms Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
Trakhov Dmitry Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
Strakhov Dmitry Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
Tikhonin Evgenii Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
Sulimov Alexander Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
Syritsa Gleb Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
Gonov Lev Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
Bereznyak Aleksandr Tinkoff Team - La Datcha
Schlegel Michal Tryg - Eni
Seibeb Costa Tryg - Eni
Wright Fred Tryg - Eni
Pedersen Rasmus Sojberg Tryg - Eni
Iversen Rasmus Tryg - Eni
Van De Paar Jarne Tryg - Eni
Malmberg Matias Tryg - Eni
Holm Jorgensen Adam Tryg - Eni
Areruya Joseph Xero Racing
Van Zyl Johann Xero Racing
Tesfaye Heyi Henok Xero Racing
Khodayari Farzad Xero Racing
Pomoshnikov Sergei Xero Racing
Strong Corbin Xero Racing
Bester Shaun Nick Xero Racing
Bloem Joren Xero Racing
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 25-05-2025 09:05
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 12680
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Big big chance for Benoot to get a Top 5 here and he should definitely he inside the Top 10. Good chance as any to keep the pressure up in an otherwise boring promotion race 
Thanks for the preview 
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 25-05-2025 09:47
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15024
Joined: 08-08-2011
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Win it or stay put of the top 50 at this point
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 25-05-2025 10:14
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Sprinter
Posts: 1806
Joined: 07-07-2013
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Thanks for the preview, ivan!
It's another stacked startlist, so a top 15 by APP would be decent, a top 10 already really good. But it's also his (and our) last clash with the PT puncheurs this season, so all points are welcome before the more promising final races start.
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| ember |
Posted on 25-05-2025 10:39
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Team Leader
Posts: 7057
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In Valter we trust! Would be great to finish the season with a good October, after a poor September for us. Excited to see how it plays out and how the downhill finish might affect the race. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 05-12-2025 15:31
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| SotD |
Posted on 25-05-2025 11:26
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World Champion
Posts: 12631
Joined: 29-11-2006
PCM$: 2980.00
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Will obviously be looking at what riders like Benoot and De Plus does here for the PCT title fight, but can't say that I'm rooting agains them, because it would be well deserved to have them re-entering the title fight in the last part of the season.
I am, however, looking more in the direction of the Gazelle vs. Tinkoff battle. Gazelle with the individual upperhand from Lutsenko who could win the race - but if he fails, he will be inviting Tinkoff back into the favorites role with riders like Skujins, Trakhov and Strakhov lurking in the shadows.
Peters and Malecki could end up being key riders in this race to even out the possible depth-deficit in the top division.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 25-05-2025 11:39
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World Champion
Posts: 13560
Joined: 05-08-2008
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Kron's leadership in GP Cycliste didn't work out very well. Hopefully, Champoussin can do better but that startlist is quite stacked.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 25-05-2025 15:37
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2797
Joined: 20-04-2008
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Last season Lutsenko was listed as the top favourite by the engine, but ended up getting dropped. Most likely explanation is that in this race MO is more important than you would think based on the profile.
On the one hand this is a bit worrying because a similar failure could be disastrous in the title race. But on the other hand, our rival Skujins has an even worse MO problem.
With Trakhov and Strakhov, Tinkoff actually beats us in the depth department, so Lutsenko will need to deliver.
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| knockout |
Posted on 25-05-2025 15:49
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Grand Tour Champion
Posts: 8235
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A podium would be good here to put some pressure on Polar and King Power.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 25-05-2025 16:42
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3837
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Very important race for us in order to survive. Looking at last year's race results, a rider like Higuita could definitely top-5 here. The competition is far fro measy, though, so let's see where he ends up.
Thank you for the nice preview.
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| Fabianski |
Posted on 26-05-2025 07:17
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Grand Tour Specialist
Posts: 5234
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Stacked startlist, as expected in this band. Schmid listed even outside the Top 15 (although I don't see any reason for him to be valued lower than Bobridge or Gebrezgabihier) doesn't inspire much hope. But hey, it was almost the same competition in San Sebastian, where he won!
Whereas I definitely can't expect him to win here again, it's still a similar profile with the downhill finish - and what I do expect is some attentive and aggressive riding again! Top 15 is the bare minimum, Top 10 would be a good outcome. If climbing skills matter, as suggested by DD, it could be a pretty good race for Mauro again.
Thanks for the preview, good luck to all!
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 26-05-2025 09:09
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Team Leader
Posts: 6174
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Win goal for us. While it definitely is a steep request for Stannard, his current form could makes us confident it isn't impossible to see that through.
Thanks for the preview ivan and good luck everyone!
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| tastasol |
Posted on 26-05-2025 10:03
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3030
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Not big expectations, but if Gaudu and Gebrezgabihier want a decent contract next year, they should do *something* here.
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 26-05-2025 10:27
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3800
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Would be amazing if Hirschi could get another top 10 here even if I am fearing his wage demands next season
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| sammyt93 |
Posted on 26-05-2025 23:53
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3800
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Wow, didn't expect Hirschi to look like the strongest rider, shame he got beat by the better tactics of Meurisse but I don't know if we'd have held off the bunch if he wasn't doing so much to keep the leading group ahead.
2nd is still a better result than we expected, he's having a strong final month and might just sneak into the PCT top 10 riders right at the death.
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 27-05-2025 00:25
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Tour de France Champion
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Can't believe I missed the preview for this. Not sure how, but apologies. Thank you for it!
Aranburu with another disappointing performance here. Seems like hybrids did very well overall, and he was well positioned when the race first got selective, but he just got burnt out and didn't have the legs in the end. Luckily, however, Gregaard punched above his weight once again. It seemed like as Aranburu got worse through the race, Gregaard got better. Which I guess makes sense given their stamina makeups. Jonas making a good selection towards the end really saved our race.
In the end, 16th and 18th is about what we would have gotten if Aranburu was closer to his true talent alone, so can't complain. Most importantly, we kept ground int he top 10 hunt. With Areruya's crazy flop (sorry jandal), I think we actually scored more than Xero here, which is insane but welcome. We lose ground on Fastned and Vansevenant, but not that much considering our almost 200 point gap to them in the last rankings. So going into Lombardia, we're going to have a shot.
Thanks for the report and congrats to Specialized!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 27-05-2025 02:20
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Directeur Sportif
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I had forgotten Sosa was here and might have been better if it stayed that way. It is good we scored a ton in September because October has been pretty bad.
Had two riders in the final group but they both finished right at the back. Maybe we had some leadership confusion with Sosa protecting Narvaez. Sosa got massively out-performed by a number of similar and weaker riders. But then so did Areruya and a a few others Seems like the race was very evenly divided between the hybrids and the fast finishers which made for an interesting dynamic in the results.
Congrats to WJ, Meurisse is a beast, able to win so many different kinds of races.
Thanks for the report JT.
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| AbhishekLFC |
Posted on 27-05-2025 05:53
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Directeur Sportif
Posts: 12680
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Another mediocre result. October isn't going great. Good thing these points don't really matter now.
Congrats to WJ and thanks for the report!
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| jaxika |
Posted on 27-05-2025 05:59
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Classics Specialist
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Not a bad result, but in the last race we need a miracle. Or we go to have some PCT fun
Thanks for the report! |
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 27-05-2025 07:33
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Sprinter
Posts: 1806
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Thanks for the report, jt! And congrats to wj for another massive Meurisse performance, the man is a beast! APP in 5th is also a great result for us and hopefully a good omen for his performances in Britain and Emilia.
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