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Vuelta al Pais Vasco - Discussion
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| Ulrich Ulriksen |
Posted on 04-02-2025 03:15
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Directeur Sportif
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 Vuelta a Pais Vasco
This week the mangame peloton finds itself in the Basque country for the C1 Vuelta al Pais Vasco. The race features a flat ITT (19k long on Stage 4 in Lodosa) a flat TTT (20k long on Stage 1 in Bilbao) and four hilly-rated stages, or perhaps more accurately medium mountain stages, the kind of steep mid-length climbs for which the region is famous. The course is identical to last year and  Oomen is back to try and win the race in back-to-back years and become the second three-time winner with Yuri Trofimov. Oomen’s countryman Gesink has the most wins with 4.
4 names stand out on the startlist as having strengths across all 3 disciplines (MT, HI, TT) (Favorites are evaluated without considering the TTT, more on that later)
| Rider | MT | HI | TT | AC | RS | | Oomen | 81 | 75 | 74 | 69 | 77 |  Johannessen | 80 | 74 | 70 | 75 | 77 |  Dunbar | 77 | 76 | 82 | 68 | 77 |  Paret-Peintre | 76 | 77 | 72 | 74 | 75 |
Oomen is the defending champion, he will be hoping to gain ground on the climbing stages as he will surely lose ground to last year’s 3rd place finisher, Dunbar, on the TT. Johannessen and Paret-Peintre are both well balanced on the climbs but give away a little more in the TT.
While Oomen and Dunbar seem like strong candidates for the win the other two could easily fall behind riders who are stronger in one discipline. There a number of riders who can gain ground in the TT:
| Rider | MT | HI | TT | AC | RS |  Cattaneo | 80 | 68 | 77 | 67 | 77 |  Fraile | 74 | 70 | 77 | 63 | 73 |  Barbio | 74 | 72 | 76 | 67 | 73 | | Canty | 75 | 73 | 75 | 67 | 71 | | Brown | 74 | 72 | 75 | 69 | 71 |  Bevin | 73 | 72 | 75 | 72 | 62 |
Among these riders Cattaneo will be a big threat if his weakness in the hills doesn’t cost him. The others will be hoping the climbing is not very selective. Perhaps a bigger threat to the GC comes from riders who are strong on the climbs and will look to minimize losses in the TT. These include
| Rider | MT | HI | TT | AC | RS |  Fabbro | 78 | 75 | 67 | 73 | 72 |  Petelin | 78 | 74 | 62 | 75 | 71 | | Van Gils | 78 | 76 | 61 | 76 | 75 | | Arndt | 78 | 75 | 55 | 74 | 75 |  Borisavljevic | 77 | 73 | 74 | 65 | 74 |  Rachid | 77 | 70 | 74 | 68 | 73 | | Abdurrahman | 77 | 72 | 72 | 68 | 74 | | Schir | 77 | 72 | 72 | 65 | 72 | | De Plus | 77 | 79 | 64 | 72 | 73 | | Van Poucke | 77 | 77 | 64 | 75 | 72 |
Borisavljevic might be the most dangerous here with his solid ability in the TT and decent climbing. That would be big points for CT team Zain-Omantel.
There are also a handful of riders who are strongest in the hills but also may be good enough on the long climbs to hold on. Although none are that strong in the TT. Buchmann and  Kelderman undoubtedly the biggest names on this list and also the best TTers, although none of these riders is great on the TT bike.
| Rider | MT | HI | TT | AC | RS |  Eiking | 69 | 81 | 66 | 76 | 74 | | Buchmann | 76 | 81 | 67 | 73 | 74 | | Kelderman | 70 | 81 | 69 | 71 | 74 |  Waeytens | 70 | 79 | 64 | 71 | 68 | | Bystrom | 68 | 79 | 61 | 76 | 72 | | Borges | 69 | 79 | 60 | 79 | 71 |  Koretzky | 68 | 78 | 60 | 74 | 65 | | Morin | 65 | 78 | 63 | 76 | 73 |  Lagane | 70 | 78 | 66 | 77 | 71 | | Kanepejs | 67 | 77 | 69 | 71 | 71 |  Lyu | 75 | 77 | 65 | 74 | 76 |
For any rider to thrive in the race they will want a good start in the TTT.
| All | Top 5 | Top 3 | | Team UBS | 74.8 | 76.8 | 77.7 | | Indosat Ooredoo | 74.5 | 75.8 | 77.7 | | Minions | 74.0 | 76.6 | 77.7 | | SEE Turtles | 73.9 | 75.6 | 76.7 | | Tryg - Eni | 72.1 | 74.4 | 76.3 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 71.3 | 76.2 | 77.3 | | JEWA TIROL | 70.6 | 75.2 | 77.3 | | Everesting | 69.5 | 72.2 | 74.0 | | Ethiopian Airlines | 68.5 | 73.8 | 76.0 | | Genii Hyundai N Cycling | 68.3 | 72.0 | 76.3 | | Cervelo Test Team | 68.1 | 71.2 | 72.7 | | Trans Looney Tunes | 68.0 | 72.4 | 76.0 | | Euskotren - Pays Basque | 66.8 | 71.2 | 73.7 | | Duvel-Tsingtao | 66.5 | 70.4 | 73.3 | | Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team | 66.1 | 69.2 | 73.0 | | Ekoi - Le Creuset | 66.0 | 68.8 | 70.7 | | Babymetal | 65.9 | 67.4 | 68.3 | | Euskadi-Murias | 65.5 | 68.2 | 71.3 | | Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo | 65.1 | 68.4 | 69.3 | | Podium Ambition | 64.9 | 67.2 | 71.0 | | Llapi-Vita | 64.0 | 66.4 | 68.7 | | Manada Coyote | 63.1 | 64.8 | 65.7 | | Hilcona Racing Team | 62.8 | 65.0 | 66.3 | | Zain - Omantel | 62.5 | 66.4 | 69.7 |
UBS brings the strongest team across all 8 riders, unfortunately for them, their leader, Buchmann, is by far the weakest rider in the TTT set up, at best he will slow them down, at worst he will get dropped.
This leaves Dunbar and Indosat are slightly weaker in terms of depth but aren't at risk of dropping their leader. Johannessen also stands to benefit as Tryg’s TTT team is also very strong. Among the other strong TTT teams are Oomen’s Lierse squad and Minions for Cattaneo, both those squads are very balanced.
SEE Turtles and JEWA Tirol also have good squads but seem to lack a leader to take advantage of that. The last of the top favorites, Paret-Peintre, is likely to have a big hole to climb out of once the TTT is done.
A full slate of teams here, 13 of the 24 from CT. Only one rider short of the maximum with a peloton of 191.
Startlist
Edited by Ulrich Ulriksen on 05-02-2025 02:24
Man Game: McCormick Pro Cycling |
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 04-02-2025 08:00
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Grand Tour Specialist
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Big race here for Dunbar. Surprisingly weak startlist also, which could make a good result even harder if teams are weaker and struggle to chase breaks down. We threw away the win in Norway earlier this season like that on the last stage, so hopefully the fa our items stay attentive here. Worried about the TTT though - I feel like we’re gonna have a bad time and be on the back foot all race trying to make up time. Hopefully Eddie can wind up somewhere on the podium.
Thanks for the preview!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| redordead |
Posted on 04-02-2025 08:12
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Always a fun race to follow. I'm guessing it's Oomen vs Dunbar for the GC.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Imladrik |
Posted on 04-02-2025 08:12
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Protected Rider
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Indeed, a weak startlist which makes me wonder whether I could have sent a GC team here. No that Ituria wouldn't have been lost in a ton of similar climbers, but the TTT could have been a bit better.
Oh well, home race, goal race obviously. Except the youngsters, we have a good set of baroudeurs who should like some of the finishes, even though hunting for the KoM is the goal. But first, don't be passive please!
“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-02-2025 08:43
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Tour de France Champion
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Dunbar isn't unexpected of course, but still a bit disappointing. Oomen won by boni seconds last year, not by creating massive gaps. Win chances go down from 90% to 10% by my estimate.
Thanks for the preview!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 04-02-2025 09:49
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Classics Specialist
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Could be a struggle for us here as we just don't have the right mix of MO-HI rider to make it work , might have a chance with Houle in a hilly sprint if very lucky on stage 2 or 3 but unsure
thanks for the preview |
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 04-02-2025 10:37
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Sprinter
Posts: 1808
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First of all thanks to Ulrich for the preview!
I didn't expect APP to feature so high in the list of favourites, so it's all about reducing the losses in the TTT. We did fairly okay in those this season so far, but his support squad here is clearly build for the hills and not the TTT. If we do okay there, we could actually be in for a really good GC result. But most of all we're back to racing after some quiet weeks 
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| Laurens147 |
Posted on 04-02-2025 12:12
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Sprinter
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With the TT's I didn't chose to be here but that could prove to be a wrong decision Will follow this closely.
Good luck everyone and thanks UU for the preview!
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
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| Dippofix |
Posted on 04-02-2025 15:09
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Classics Specialist
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Sent about as strong a team as we can for this kind of race, but I fear the mountains will be too much for Bystrom. He's done well in C1 races so far though so who knows. Our TTT on paper looks decent but we've been pretty poor thus far in those for no apparent reason, so I'm not hopeful we'll do anything of note. Maybe having it at the beginning of the race where our TTers who don't climb well are still fresh will be a slight advantage, let's see. Good luck all and excited to see a bit of the Basque country as I am currently looking into going on holidays there myself
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| Marcovdw |
Posted on 04-02-2025 19:59
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Grand Tour Champion
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Thanks for the preview, we've set up the TTT team to fully support Cattaneo but he has to limit his losses on the hilly stages to get a good GC result. Crossing my fingers
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| seancoll |
Posted on 04-02-2025 22:58
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We're here for the TTs only! Siriwardena could actually be in a decent GC position, but he lost tons of time on a stage last year so no hopes for overall GC by the end.
Maybe an Oka sprint on a hilly stage gone weak could also occur. Otherwise - count us in for hopefully not 0 points haha
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 05-12-2025 18:55
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| seancoll |
Posted on 05-02-2025 02:40
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A GREAT TTT for us... that won't matter at all because we end up 4th and not 3rd . I hope we can find something useful over the next stages, but we won't turn away the extra seconds given how our team is constructed.
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| Eden95 |
Posted on 05-02-2025 04:24
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Great ride from the team, happy that I seemed to have found a balance with the TTT team here. Last season Dunbar was too strong for the rest so I’m glad to see everyone managed to finish together.
Congrats Marco! The Minions far too good, setting such a good time early and holding through til the finish would have been nerve racking.
Thanks for the report!
Indosat - ANZ HQ
"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett |
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| Nemolito |
Posted on 05-02-2025 08:00
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Classics Specialist
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I count this as a win for Mexico, viva Casillas!
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 05-02-2025 08:47
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Tour de France Champion
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Darn, 22 seconds on Dunbar already..
Congrats Marco!
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 05-02-2025 09:00
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Team Leader
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This shouldn't be a race too suited for us. Would love to catch some breaks, but give our track record I'm not relying on that. Perhaps a top20 could be a goal. Thanks for the detailed preview UU!
Good start with the TTT. Congrats on the win Marco!
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| jt1109 |
Posted on 05-02-2025 09:18
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Classics Specialist
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Actually gone really well there for 9th
Congrats to the winners actually got some hope for the next few stages going forward |
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| Booker |
Posted on 05-02-2025 10:58
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Stage hunting here, most probably. Unlikely Lyu will manage to stick around during the second TT, so let's just rack up some stage points.
A 15th in the TTT is actually not a horrific result. But I do see why there's been such a premium placed on TT'ists during the transfer window. Every stage race seems to include either an ITT or TTT...
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| Dippofix |
Posted on 05-02-2025 13:30
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Not a bad showing in the TTT per se, except for the small fact that we managed to drop Bystrom along the way. Not that a particularly good GC showing was ever on the cards but still disappointing to see any chance dissipate so early. Hopefully this at least gives him more freedom to get stage results.
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| kandesbunzler26 |
Posted on 05-02-2025 18:34
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Congratulations to marco! 14th is another solid TTT result for us and the time lost should still leave APP in an okay position to attack in the GC. Let's hope he can profit from his hybrid skillset and sprint qualities and add some good stage results.
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