So for the upcomming season i made such a thing for the Continental Teams (for now). If people like it I will also make one for PCT and PT later.
So what is this?
Just a little survey to see what people think and predict for the upcomming season in the Continental Dvision.
How to participate?
Just click on the Link below, answer the questions in the form and thats it.
How does it work
Just rank the best teams from 1st to 5th in the different sections. Also rank all teams from first to last overall (not necessary to do all if you dont know for this question)
What else?
Your username is just required to see who already sent it and to make somehow sure people just dont spam, it wont be published (but I may secretely judge you for your answers ). Please be a good human and only just answer once and for yourself!
Till when can I take the survey?
I plan to collect and publish the results next week. So please do so till the end of 17th of september.
I can't say I enjoyed this exercise as it simply told me how steep of a hill our team needs to climb in most categories. Hopefully other teams view us a bit stronger than I do.
Looking forward to the results and seeing even more CT teams post goals and leaders!
Would be nice if we get a few more participations. At the moment its not a lot to really evaluate it. SO dont be lazy and spend these 5 mins to click some boxes
I did it, but I found the process way too tedious.
I had no interest in the terrain ranking, but I had to do it anyway because it was mandatory. Also I probably made some mistakes having to scroll up and down all the time and try to figure out which abbreviation was which team and just misclicking boxes.
Not very user friendly and definitely not for the lazy.
Would've been much easier to just post a list here on the forum or through PM.
Yeah its a bit of a hassle and for next time i can try to make it more comfortable but the good thing about a survey is that it is a bit less work for the one person who does it then just collecting it all and organizing with PM.
Anyway, i heard you and next time i will make it more lazy-ass friendly
You've basically done it backwards from what i'd have done.
So instead of listing the all the teams, i'd have just listed the terrain and 1-5, so then people only need to think "hmm who's #1" and type that team name in - vs scrolling back and forth through them all. Same for the ranking, list positions and let users add in the team name.
Would just streamline everything on the user side, but admittedly make it a little trickier for you to then tidy & present the data in the end.
Edited by TheManxMissile on 14-09-2023 11:04
I added to the survey. But full predictions below. I have two versions, v2 is the one I like better so used that in the survey. The main difference is it downgrades punchers and upgrades cobblers versus v1.
Both predictions are at a rider level with no consideration given to team make up. Since CT points didn't matter to me much this year I didn't update the algorithm for 2022 data and of course moving to PCM22 is another wild card.
The point total's aren't meant to be specific but give an order of magnitude, so Tafjord is a strong prediction for 1st but JEWA and Gjensidige are basically interchangeable for 3rd and 4th (under v2).
Thanks to everyone who participated. Like many stated, this wasnt the easiest way to do and I will do it different next time i will do something like that!
I started the evaluation of the data and will start with presenting you the predicition for the overall ranking you decided on:
Team
Average
Variance
1
Tafjord Kraft
2,11
0,99
2
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
2,18
2,04
3
Podium Ambition
4,20
1,54
4
Crabbe - CC Chevigny
5,73
3,74
5
Team Würth MODYF
5,73
2,70
6
Strava
6,90
3,24
7
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
8,10
5,47
8
Ekoi - Le Creuset
9,40
4,15
9
Stela - Vita
9,50
3,56
10
Manada Coyote
10,20
5,02
11
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
10,89
2,33
12
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
11,09
6,16
13
Caja Rural Cycling Team
11,44
3,50
14
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
12,00
3,83
15
SEE Turtles
12,67
3,09
16
Mercatone Uno - Weba
13,63
5,22
17
Hilcona Racing Team
13,67
5,21
18
Saeco
14,11
4,38
19
Adidas - Eurocash
16,78
2,53
20
Babymetal Cycling
18,44
2,06
Its the average position you preict the teams on obviously. Variance is the standard deviation from the reults. If you take both into consideration then Tatfjord Kraft is the favorite going into the season. Closely followed by Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team. After these 2 there is a small gap to Podium Ambition and then there is a group of 3 (Crabbe - CC Chevigny, Team Würth MODYF and Strava)who should compete for promotion. But even then next follow closely.
At the bottom it seems pretty clear with Babymetal Cycling and Adidas - Eurocash which are predicted to have the hardest seasons. The other places are really close and seem to have a hard battle.
Lets look at the variance to see where the preidctions spread the most. Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh, JEWA TIROL Cycling Team, Mercatone Uno - Weba & Hilcona Racing Team are the most unpredictable and it makes sense that these are all new teams. Tafjord Kraft there is the least deviance so it should be an easy year for them if we look at our predictions.
-----------------
Next will be the analysis for the individual sections. There Teams will get points if they show up in the Top 5, like seen in the following table:
Indeed, really nice to see all these predictions for CT
I can’t wait for the season to start!
From my POV I don’t see us a real promotion candidate, but you never know. The mountain/hill/sprint department is so stacked it’s hard to predict how it will turn out.
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
Lets start with how people ranked the stage racing sections of each team. Who will be the best in this department? Scoring is like I explained at the Overall section.
Team
Score
1
Crabbe - CC Chevigny
45
2
Team Würth MODYF
41
3
Caja Rural Cycling Team
38
4
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
37
5
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
32
6
Tafjord Kraft
18
7
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
16
8
Ekoi - Le Creuset
16
9
Strava
8
10
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
4
11
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
4
12
Podium Ambition
2
13
Saeco
2
14
Stela - Vita
2
15
Babymetal Cycling
1
16
Adidas - Eurocash
0
17
Hilcona Racing Team
0
18
Mercatone Uno - Weba
0
19
SEE Turtles
0
20
Manada Coyote
0
I would say it's pretty open here, not a huge advantage for any team but we have a "winner" here with Crabbe - CC Chevigny. Most likely because Chiarello is there and he obviously is a huge favorite for every race he will attend.
Second goes here the incredible awesome Team Würth MODYF (I am not biased or so). Not with the top rider like Chiarello but with Elosegui and Schelling two good riders and quite some support in the mountains and at TT's.
Third we have Caja Rural Cycling Team. Lead by Ablenado and Munoz they also have a bunch of helpers and sure will do great.
On the other side we have quite a few teams who didnt get to be in the top 5 of anyone. 5 Teams couldnt score a single point in this section. Hopefully they will have "better luck" in the next ones!
Now we will see what people think about the puncheur sections of each team.
Team
Score
1
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
85
2
Ekoi - Le Creuset
50
3
Manada Coyote
49
4
Crabbe - CC Chevigny
18
5
Tafjord Kraft
13
6
Adidas - Eurocash
12
7
Podium Ambition
11
8
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
10
9
Caja Rural Cycling Team
8
10
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
3
11
Strava
3
12
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
2
13
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
1
14
Hilcona Racing Team
1
15
Babymetal Cycling
0
16
Mercatone Uno - Weba
0
17
Saeco
0
18
SEE Turtles
0
19
Stela - Vita
0
20
Team Würth MODYF
0
Here we have a more clear result. First is here Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team! With Eiking leading this section and Skjerping as Backup this was to be expected. Especially Eiking will definitely be able to dominate CT if he can reach his full potential in the races.
Second and Third are close together but also a lot ahead of the rest of the competition. Ekoi - Le Creuset with Teuns & Co. has a really strong and also deep lineup when it comes to the hills. With this deep roster they will have a strong contender in each hilly race they attend.
The puncheur section of Manada Coyote is lead by another scandinavian hills specialist: Jensen. A really strong and also versatile rider with good chances in many terrains. Mudarra another strong rider at this team and behind these 2 other follows to support them.
This time 6 teams couldn't score. Team Würth MODYF who went second before got 0 Points here.
Just Cobbles. We expect here not so much diversity if we look at the teams. So lets see what you thought.
Team
Score
1
Strava
101
2
Tafjord Kraft
34
3
Stela - Vita
32
4
Saeco
28
5
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
26
6
Podium Ambition
16
7
Crabbe - CC Chevigny
15
8
Caja Rural Cycling Team
5
9
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
3
10
Babymetal Cycling
2
11
Mercatone Uno - Weba
2
12
Hilcona Racing Team
1
13
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
1
14
Adidas - Eurocash
0
15
Ekoi - Le Creuset
0
16
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
0
17
SEE Turtles
0
18
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
0
19
Team Würth MODYF
0
20
Manada Coyote
0
Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a unchallenged winner in this category! Strava , with Gaday and Owen both leaders are really strong on cobbles. With some fairly decent ammount of support they should be able to bring a lot of points to the team.
With quite some distance 4 teams follow Strava in this category. We will focus here on the 2 new Teams Stela - Vita and Saeco. Stela - Vita comes with Lampaert and Merlier as their main guys for the cobbled roads. Lampaert had a nice year last year with Colombini lets see what he can bring to his new team. Saeco relies almost completely on one rider for this but this rider is Trentin! He got a bit older but still in great shape for the CT and should do really well at cobbled races.
As to be expected for this years CT there were quite a lot Teams who couldnt score and even some who scored probably doesnt have the most convincing cobbles section.
Now its about the fast men at the last kilometres, The sprinters.
Team
Score
1
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
76
2
Mercatone Uno - Weba
50
3
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
48
4
Team Würth MODYF
19
5
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
17
6
Adidas - Eurocash
11
7
Crabbe - CC Chevigny
9
8
Hilcona Racing Team
8
9
Stela - Vita
8
10
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
7
11
Babymetal Cycling
4
12
Tafjord Kraft
4
13
Ekoi - Le Creuset
3
14
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
2
15
Caja Rural Cycling Team
0
16
Podium Ambition
0
17
Saeco
0
18
SEE Turtles
0
19
Strava
0
20
Manada Coyote
0
We got a more clear result here than we did expect. And with that the winner of this category is Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo. how could they snatch the victory here? Nur Aiman Zariff, a great sprinter from Malaysia is leading this team when it comes to sprints. Still a young rider and he will be support by veterans Scully and Naesen.
Then we look at the second place here. Mercatone Uno - Weba, they really have a strong and deep lineup for sprint finishes. The reason they are 2nd isnt any surprise, it's called Saber. The winner of last years indiviual standing will ride for them this year. May have become a bit old but still gold! Van der Sande & Co. will support him.
Third is the austrian team JEWA TIROL Cycling Team. They most likely snatched a lot of votes for their leader Degenkolb. Not the most explosive one anymore but still with a high speed at the end. Boudat is another weapon for them when it comes to sprinting.
I would say the sprinting competition in CT is pretty deep so its a bit surprising the points arent spread more.
Just a man against the clock, sometimes with his team mates but you know what i mean. The TT-Guys!
Team
Score
1
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
97
2
Podium Ambition
54
3
Tafjord Kraft
54
4
Team Würth MODYF
29
5
SEE Turtles
22
6
Crabbe - CC Chevigny
5
7
Manada Coyote
3
8
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
1
9
Hilcona Racing Team
1
10
Adidas - Eurocash
0
11
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
0
12
Babymetal Cycling
0
13
Caja Rural Cycling Team
0
14
Ekoi - Le Creuset
0
15
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
0
16
Mercatone Uno - Weba
0
17
Saeco
0
18
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
0
19
Stela - Vita
0
20
Strava
0
We a another clear result and not really many teams who could score at all.
Again Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team takes the victory in this category. Van Moer and Knotten are the guys they will rely on. In addition to them they also have some more with decent skills in TT and Prologues to support them in Team-TT's.
Second comes Podium Ambition with clear podium ambitions in Timetrials. They present a really deep TT section at there roster, lead by Vanderpool, Hennis, Campbell and Canty. Will be thrilling to watch at TTT's.
Tafjord Kraft shares the number of points with Podium Ambition and comes also 2nd. Not as deep as them in sheer numbers but with Belevics and Vangstad 2 really great leaders for Timetrials. Maybe these 2 can carry the rest in TTT's.
Only 9 teams got points here and only 5 got more than 5 points. Seems like a pretty clear section for the upcomming season.
Next one will be the last individual ranking, the roleurs!
In my opinion a really underrated category of riders. The roleurs will try everything to win with willpower and there skills on flat roads!
Team
Score
1
Babymetal Cycling
67
2
Stela - Vita
52
3
Tafjord Kraft
46
4
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
32
5
Strava
28
6
Crabbe - CC Chevigny
25
7
Ekoi - Le Creuset
6
8
Hilcona Racing Team
3
9
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
3
10
Caja Rural Cycling Team
2
11
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
1
12
Mercatone Uno - Weba
1
13
Adidas - Eurocash
0
14
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
0
15
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
0
16
Podium Ambition
0
17
Saeco
0
18
SEE Turtles
0
19
Team Würth MODYF
0
20
Manada Coyote
0
On top of these ranking we see fresh colours! The japanese team of Babymetal Cycling claims that category. I assume this was because of Arashiro-san in their roster. A really strong contender when it comes to flat stages who knows how to fight.
Second Place here goes here Stela - Vita. A funny similarity to Babymetal is that the responsible rider for that Ranking also is the same as the team nationality! The albanian Yzeiraj is one of the top notch fighters out there. Honorable mention also to Demiri, a young talent but already equipped with strong willpower.
Tafjord Kraft finishes 3rd here. With Belevics again and also Breen, Eislers and Vangstad going most likely for stage & race wins as escapists.
So this it is for the individual categories! Have fun tudying them. In the next days I will also present you the combined rankings in comparison to the overall prediction.
Lets see the overall scores of the teams and how this summarize view of the individual categories compares to the overall prediction shown earlier.
Team
Total Score
Prediction
Pred. Rank
Difference
1
Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team
258
2,18
2
-1
2
Tafjord Kraft
169
2,11
1
1
3
Strava
140
6,90
6
-3
4
Crabbe - CC Chevigny
117
5,73
4
0
5
Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo
107
12,00
14
-9
6
Stela - Vita
94
9,50
9
-3
7
Team Würth MODYF
89
5,73
5
2
8
JEWA TIROL Cycling Team
83
8,10
7
1
9
Podium Ambition
83
4,20
3
6
10
Ekoi - Le Creuset
75
9,40
8
2
11
Babymetal Cycling
74
18,44
20
-9
12
Caja Rural Cycling Team
53
11,44
13
-1
13
Mercatone Uno - Weba
53
13,63
16
-3
14
Manada Coyote
52
10,20
10
4
15
Simba Cement - Tanga Fresh
34
11,09
12
3
16
Saeco
30
14,11
18
-2
17
Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
26
10,89
11
6
18
Adidas - Eurocash
23
16,78
19
-1
19
SEE Turtles
22
12,67
15
4
20
Hilcona Racing Team
14
13,67
17
3
By points we have a clear winner and everything else than promotion would be a huge disappointment, no pressure . Gjensidige Pro Cycling Team finished 2nd, but very close, at the preidiction and comes out first by points, so gaining one spot. The other way around for Tafjord Kraft, but there second place is also really stable.
Strava could gain 3 spots compared to the prediction. Crabbe is the only Team that had a stable position for both rankings. On 5 we have one of the team with the biggest gains, climbin 9 spots with their points, Air New Zealand-Alfa Romeo. Also 9 positions were gained by Babymetal Cycling, not dead last when summarizing points anymore!
If we look at the teams who lost the most spots compared to the predictions then we have to name Podium Ambition and Bordeaux Métropole - Euskotren. Both lost 6 places compared to that ranking. Overall it seems pretty consinstent.
So enough from me have fun with analyzing the data yourself! We're done now!
Only one part of these predictions seems to be inaccurate:
Ezeefreak wrote: No Shirts anymore this Year
In all seriousness, these are fun to see for sure, but not too exciting for our team. Glad to know that my overall ranking sits above my point total.
Think SEE Turtles are the only group with points in just 1 category - TT, while I'm sure there are some others with just 2 categories filled. Hoping to really fight against the odds this season I guess.
For specific teams, I'd stand by thinking Podium Ambition is more likely to rank close to their overall guess of 3, than their ranking points of 9. Sadly for Babymetal, I'd assume the same.
Tafjord stands out having points in all individual areas at the top, and figure that has to be to their benefit as they can highlight specific races in each area to focus instead of needing all hills or all sprint races each those that don't exactly fit their strengths.
). Please be a good human and only just answer once and for yourself!
