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Tour de l'Avenir Discussion
AbhishekLFC
Thanks to SotD for the preview.

Tour de l'Avenir 2022 Preview

Welcome to the biggest race on the U23 scene. While many young riders have already made their prescense in the world of cycling, the Tour de l'Avenir is where they are all collected and match up against eachother in a 9 day long, endurant and versatile race that leaves only the top cobblers envious.

The history of this race can't be negliged with former winners counting Grand Tour champions such as Robert Gesink, Aleksandr Pluchkin, Taylor Phinney, Justo Tenorio aswell as recent Tour winner Silvio Herklotz. The winners of the more recent editions, Tadej Pogacar, Nicola Conci, Mark Padun and Sam Oomen are also well on their way to make an international name of themselves.

Last season saw the bloom of riders such as Attila Valter, Adomaitis Rojus, Matus Stocek, Mikkel Bjerg, Joao Almeida and a very young Matteo Jorgensen who is with us again this time.

For a history check, the Tour de l'Avenir History page gives a great throwback into the past - and for some riders the present.

But for now, let's forget about the past, and look the to present, which in most cases are definately also the future! The route of this years edition looks as such:

i.imgur.com/oCcybf5.jpg


The race begins in Maurepas with a prologue of 6,7km, before throwing two flat stages in our direction to maybe create a little bit of traction for those that can combine prologues and sprints. The stage to Contres is long, and for some riders might be their first encounter of more than 190km of riding. Stage 3 starts in the beautyful Zoo Parc de Beauval and ends in Saint-Amand-Montrond during which we encounters the first small bumps on the road. It shouldn't be enough to throw anyone off the back though.

The same can't be said from here onwards though. Stage 4 to Morbihan is up and down all day and what the climbs lack in altitude they have in quantity. It's time to sneak away the leaders jersey for the time being and many riders will have this stage firmly studied as it can well be won from a breakaway. A lot of the GC riders will also look to this stage as a key moment to gain time on the stronger climbers or timetriallists.

The stage 5 from Rodes to the climb of Croix Neuve is hard and difficult. You cannot win this from being smarter than the others, you have to be stronger aswell. A gap can be created from the early break, but it will by mano y mano regardless of numbers when fighting the last 30 km of the stage. And there is no time to breath if you are in ambition of winning the race, because a monstrous 53km individual timetrial to Besancon will leave all the gunners breathless. The timetrial isn't completely flat, and may force riders to go over their limit and exhaust themselves towards massive and unsalvageable timeloss.

Stage 7 is the last chance to flex the muscle if you are not part of the GC battle, and while it does look like a sprint stage finish the 214km of bumpy roads with a steep climb in the final quarter of the stage could see breakaway specialists steal the glory.

The final 2 stages wnd in Pra-Loup and Saint Jean de Maurienne and is for the climbers. The first is in great altitude, which the colombians will be looking forward too, while the final stage is more sneaky endeavors which might call for the daredevils with a couple of fierce looking descents towards the end of the stage.

So who can we expect to fare well in a race like this? Let's give it some looks. We start with the favorites list.

FAVORITES

NameMOHITTACC
A. Ardila76756771
T. Johannessen75706772
M. Jorgensen74727269
M. Schmid73746775
A. Leknessund73717468
T. Pidcock737470[b]78
M. Vansevenant70756876
R. Evenepoel69727270


Many bookmakers will have their eyes firmly set on the colombian climber Andres Camilo Ardila who fancy mountains and hills regardless of altitude or difficulty. He has his compatriot Santiago Butraigo by his side making one of the best lieutenaints of the race. Also Alekss Krasts and Asbjorn Hellemose should supplement the workduties. The issue with Ardila might be the early part of the race aswell as the timetrial. He isn't horrible against the clock, but he doesn't really fancy the flat stages either, and might struggle with concentration.

A climber with a similar mindset, but not quite as strong will be the norwegian Tobias Halland Johannessen, who in fact has his twin brother Anders Halland Johannessen in the race aswell, but for seperate teams. It is the former that has an actual shot at winning the race though, but while he's a top climber his weaknesses are difficult to look past. He has a better physical package than the more obscure Ardila, but not the top level, and without a strong timetrial ability either I think it's the next rider on the list that shines the brightest!

American Matteo Jorgensen is a spectacular rider at this level and very versatile. He can climb, he can TT and he fares well in both flat and hilly stages. He even have a brilliant setup with Chaiyasombat and Quinn by his side. If we should look at a few weaknesses it might be his ability to be aggressive. This isn't necessarily a real dissadvantage though as he reads the races well, and rarely go out of his own control, but it might be a spot where others can team up against him.

Two riders in particular seem to be able to pose a serious all-round threat. Another norwegian rider in Andreas Leknessund and the british phenomena Thomas Pidcock. Both are solid climbers just outside the very best, have no issue what so ever with focus and concentration and their physical attributes are World Tour level already. Leknessund might have the upper hand when looking at the timetrial perspective, and might not lose a lot in the hills either, but he will have to beat his rivals in the timetrial to win the race. Pidcock will look to limit his losses in the timetrial, but he's competent at that and then he can attack every other scenario. He's fast - probably among the fasts, he's among the best puncheurs and he had an amazing downhill skill aswell as a furious acceleration. The team around Pidcock isn't quite matching his rivals though, whereas Leknessund have another outsider for the podium Remco Evenepoel by his side.

A rider that will look to mimic the like of Pidcock is Mauro Schmid who's a great puncheur and decent climber and a great attacker. I wouldn't be surprised to see Schmid fight for the podium in this race, but he's just a tad too weak in his strongest abilities to throw him into the plate of most likely winners. The race leaders will have to be on their toes though as just a small gap can make the swiss rider taste blood.

The final link of the race favorites is Mauri Vansevenant who has already shown great escape-artism at the biggest scenes this season. He's not quite the rider of many others, but he is probably the best puncheur, and might get enough of a gap in those stages to be difficult to beat if he get the leaders jersey.

The list of outsiders, however is a mixture of domestiques and lesser riders with some freedom.

OUTSIDERS

NameMOHITTACC
T. Chaiyasombat74706871
A. Johannessen73706474
S. Butraigo73716576
G. Leemreize73716468
T. Arensman73707066
D. Christakos73686867
M. Van Gils73716072
N. Tesfatsion72736074
N. Cemezar72707164
J. Romo70756566


For the riders already mentioned, it's needed for their leaders to have some sort of freak accident to throw them into the pool, but they will be toward the front for their leaders most of the time, and thus you can't rule them out. We have already mentioned twinbrother Halland Johannesen, but the duo of Thymen Arensman and Dimitrios Christakos is the most interesting to look at. Arensman comes from with fresh succes just out of the Tour de France, where he shocked the world by almost carrying the polkadot jersey all the way from stage 4 to Paris. It was evident though that he wore it due to willpower and not so much his overall qualities, and this is another testiment to that. He's not the best climber, nor is he the best timetriallist, but he's wellrounded and might be going under the radar. The same can be said about teammate Christakos who's a tad weaker everywhere, but the combination of the two aswell as Jordan Jegat an Alexandros Matsangos might lead to some interesting fireworks.

Of the Genii - Hyundai team we spot something similar with Gijs Leemreize and his teammates Papanov and Hocevar, but a lot will depend on whether or not teamleader Vansevenant get's the aforementioned succes early on.

A fair amount of riders such as Maxim Van Gils, Natnael Tesfatsion, Nik Cemezar, Javier Romo etc. can in theory upset the race, but it would require a lot of work and a lot of luck, as their limitations is equally strong to their qualities.

Let's dig a little into the riders that can be expected to win stages.

PUNCHEURS

NameHIMORESACC
A. Ardila75766871
M. Vansevenant75707576
J. Romo75707466
M. Schmid74737675
T. Pidcock74737578
A. Bagioli74707173
N. Tesfatsion73727074
G. Aleotti73697373
M. Jorgensen72747469
R. Evenepoel72697670


We have already covered the GC riders, and from that list we also find the most likely winners in the mountains, and like here the hills. Some honorable mentions need to be presented to Andrea Bagioli and Giovanni Aleotti aswell. The Le Creuset team will be very interested in getting away with either Romo or Bagioli who are both among the top favorites in a punchy final, but I mist admit I look at Pidcock quite a lot here, as he doesn't necessarily have to be the best, he just have to arrive at the line with him.

TIMETRIALLISTS

NameTTPRLFLRES
A. Leknessund74747278
H. Forsell73746671
M. Jorgensen72717174
R. Evenepoel72727476
S. Matsuda72747273
R. Kmielkauskas72726966
C. Perez72726968
V. Ocampo72726768
M. Papanov69736770
D. Rossi69737370


As the race kicks off with a prologue we are likely to find out first race leader in this bunch. It's a combination of riders who are strong against the clock, aswell as those who fancy the more tedious prologue. In either case Leknessund and Forsell will be looking to get away with some glory. Leknessund will also attempt to get as much time as possible, while Forsell is also the fastest rider in the race, and thus is probably looking more towards getting a head start to achieve the lead on more stages. He's also a good bet for the green jersey due to the combination of being a pre-stage favorite 5 times!

It's also here Matteo Jorgensen needs to put time into his rivals, while Evenepoel and Papanov might look at skewing the team hierarchy to their own benefit.

SPRINTERS

NameSPRACCFLRES
H. Forsell74746671
T. Pidcock72787375
J. Jimenez Retana72756766
E. Vernon71686871
B. Girmay71727173
S. Van Tricht71737071
F. Vermeersch70747171
A. Bagioli70737071
E. Lunder70757066
J. Stewart70707171


As mentioned Hugo Forsell is the fastest rider, but he doesn't have the greatest positioning. He does have a superior leadout with Cannister and stagewinner from last season, Stocek by his side. He will need that help though as Thomas Pidcock will attack all stages possible to gain time. Pidcock has Florian Vermeersch and Vito Braet who should look to deliver him, so it's very likely that these two will bump heads all the way to the line.

There aren't a lot of stand out sprinters in the field but Biniam Girmay is definately an interesting rider to look out for on more than one occassion.

The entire startlist, can be found below. Best of luck to you all!

Startlist:
Spoiler
Last nameFirst nameAvenir Team
GovekarMatevzBordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
BerthetClementBordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
RenardAlexisBordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
LazkanoOierBordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
BrunNilsBordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
MartinDavidBordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
PetrucciMattiaBordeaux Métropole - Euskotren
TesfatsionNatnaelBralirwa - Stevens
RedyDylanBralirwa - Stevens
DebesayYacobBralirwa - Stevens
MelkiAzizBralirwa - Stevens
BrustengaMarcBralirwa - Stevens
UhiriweRenusBralirwa - Stevens
CoboIvanBralirwa - Stevens
NsengiyumvaShemuBralirwa - Stevens
JohannessenAnders HallandCarlsberg - Danske Bank
StocekMatusCarlsberg - Danske Bank
ForssellHugoCarlsberg - Danske Bank
CannisterGoldwijnnCarlsberg - Danske Bank
Skjelmose JensenMattiasCarlsberg - Danske Bank
RichardsonZambeziCarlsberg - Danske Bank
LordSamuelCarlsberg - Danske Bank
ErikssonJacobCarlsberg - Danske Bank
ArdilaAndres CamiloCedevita
BuitragoSantiagoCedevita
AnsonsKristersCedevita
KrastsAlekssCedevita
WrightFredCedevita
HellemoseAsbjornCedevita
JarcAljazCedevita
BechkovAleksCedevita
RossiDiegoColombini-Adler AP
SprengerFelixColombini-Adler AP
GiuliettiLuigiColombini-Adler AP
AquilaniAndreaColombini-Adler AP
BonelloDanielColombini-Adler AP
TurnerBenColombini-Adler AP
MartinoStanColombini-Adler AP
Aguilar MendezJose PabloColombini-Adler AP
DriznersJarradCrabbe-CC Chevigny
BlouweLouisCrabbe-CC Chevigny
DonovanMarkCrabbe-CC Chevigny
Van TrichtStanCrabbe-CC Chevigny
KielichTimoCrabbe-CC Chevigny
BonneuKamielCrabbe-CC Chevigny
Van Den BosscheFabioCrabbe-CC Chevigny
DaumontPaulCrabbe-CC Chevigny
VansevenantMauriGenii - Hyundai N Cycling
LeemreizeGijsGenii - Hyundai N Cycling
PapanovMartinGenii - Hyundai N Cycling
Van DijkeMickGenii - Hyundai N Cycling
HocevarKristjanGenii - Hyundai N Cycling
ShevchenkoOleksandrGenii - Hyundai N Cycling
ParashchakYaroslavGenii - Hyundai N Cycling
KolevYoanGenii - Hyundai N Cycling
ArensmanThymenGjensidige Pro Cycling Team
HvidebergJonas IversbyGjensidige Pro Cycling Team
ChristakosDimitriosGjensidige Pro Cycling Team
KaratsivisPanagiotisGjensidige Pro Cycling Team
JegatJordanGjensidige Pro Cycling Team
LunderEirikGjensidige Pro Cycling Team
MatsangosAlexandrosGjensidige Pro Cycling Team
WaerenskjoldSorenGjensidige Pro Cycling Team
CurleyLiamGlanbia
DavisColeGlanbia
JuneauFrancisGlanbia
HealyBenGlanbia
SchunkConorGlanbia
MurphyJack BernardGlanbia
CorkeryDillonGlanbia
CemazarNikIndosat Ooredoo
YudhaMuhammadIndosat Ooredoo
MatsudaShoiIndosat Ooredoo
WibisonoRachmad NokaIndosat Ooredoo
AhmadFirdausIndosat Ooredoo
FlynnSeanIndosat Ooredoo
HueraRichardIndosat Ooredoo
OcampoVictor AlejandroIndosat Ooredoo
SchmidMauroJura Bianchi
BayerTobiasJura Bianchi
ColleoniKevinJura Bianchi
AntonelliMichaelJura Bianchi
MulubrhanHenokJura Bianchi
EggenbergRubenJura Bianchi
JanssenChristophJura Bianchi
Irgens JensenFrederikJura Bianchi
BagioliAndreaLe Creuset
RomoJavierLe Creuset
BoileauAlanLe Creuset
LouvelMatisLe Creuset
BalmerAlexandreLe Creuset
KawasakiMioriLe Creuset
DelboveJorisLe Creuset
GaribianArmanLe Creuset
AleottiGiovanniLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Van GilsMaximLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
PotockiViktorLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
BaronciniFilippoLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
Galvan RamirezOscar SamuelLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
MilanJonathanLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
RamirezJhon StivenLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
KroonenMaxLierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
BeltranGuillermo AndresMagnum - Madshus
RodriguezWilberMagnum - Madshus
ÖrkenAhmetMagnum - Madshus
PiraYesid AlbeiroMagnum - Madshus
HooleDaanMagnum - Madshus
StojnicVeljkoMagnum - Madshus
PluimersRickMagnum - Madshus
KoideItsukiMagnum - Madshus
NovikovSavvaMinions Cervelo
MerchanDidierMinions Cervelo
StöckliJanMinions Cervelo
HailemichaelMuluMinions Cervelo
DinhamMatthewMinions Cervelo
JonesTajMinions Cervelo
TurnbullCarterMinions Cervelo
PorterRudyMinions Cervelo
ColeTylerPodium Ambition
KellyJacobPodium Ambition
Morales OrtegaJacobPodium Ambition
PerezCristianPodium Ambition
WhiteConnorPodium Ambition
OroscoKempPodium Ambition
Molina PaganLuisPodium Ambition
GonzalezAbnerPodium Ambition
LeknessundAndreasRed Bull Zalgiris
EvenepoelRemcoRed Bull Zalgiris
TediashviliGiorgiRed Bull Zalgiris
JanuskeviciusMantasRed Bull Zalgiris
KmieliauskasRokasRed Bull Zalgiris
BloemJorenRed Bull Zalgiris
PlappLukeStaffbase - BHP
Van DijkeTimStaffbase - BHP
LipowitzFlorianStaffbase - BHP
HollmannJuriStaffbase - BHP
BerwickSebastianStaffbase - BHP
EngelhardtFelixStaffbase - BHP
JohanssonAlbinStaffbase - BHP
PlowrightJensenStaffbase - BHP
JohannessenTobias HallandTryg - Gobik
KaloniatisGeorgiosTryg - Gobik
EvangelosSarrisTryg - Gobik
FetterErikTryg - Gobik
Sander HansenMarcusTryg - Gobik
Wulff FrederiksenOliverTryg - Gobik
RojasHenry AntonioVolcanica - Fox
Jimenez RetanaJohnVolcanica - Fox
ChumilSergioVolcanica - Fox
RojasGabriel FranciscoVolcanica - Fox
LopezHarold MartinVolcanica - Fox
GomezNicolas DavidVolcanica - Fox
SamudioJoseph IvanVolcanica - Fox
MontenegroLenin JavierVolcanica - Fox
PidcockThomasXero Racing
VermeerschFlorianXero Racing
StrongCorbinXero Racing
Van WilderIlanXero Racing
BraetVitoXero Racing
VandenabeeleHenriXero Racing
FinklerLeonardo HenriqueZara - Irizar
AndersenIdarZara - Irizar
De La Cruz ChapulinLuis FernandoZara - Irizar
MiquelPauZara - Irizar
SamHenry AlbertoZara - Irizar
VandeveldeYentlZara - Irizar
JorgensonMatteoZwift Pro Cycling
ChaiyasombatThanakhanZwift Pro Cycling
GirmayBiniamZwift Pro Cycling
StewartJakeZwift Pro Cycling
QuinnSeanZwift Pro Cycling
JuntunenAntti-JussiZwift Pro Cycling
VermaerkeKevinZwift Pro Cycling
VernonEthanZwift Pro Cycling

 
AbhishekLFC
Reports will come from Tuesday.
 
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Luis Leon Sanchez
Thank you Sotd for the comprehensive preview!! Should be an interesting race across the terrains with no real stand-out favourite.

Our riders this edition aren’t particularly strong so our hopes rely on breakaways and miracle performances. It’ll be cool to see them all ride together though Smile

Good luck all! Always enjoy this race as a chance to see who I should be going for in transfers Pfft
 
cunego59
Very nice preview, thanks a lot! We have a relevant rider here for the first time in Tesfatsion, which is a nice sign of our team development. I'm curious if he can actually make a dent and show himself. Looking forward to this!
 
Marcovdw
Thanks for the preview! No expectations on our side, just riders getting experience. Would be nice to see the jersey at least one
Manager of Minions
 
Croatia14
Go Zara!
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2019/moty.png
 
quadsas
Žalgiris is stacked to the brim. The other teams will get a participation award, its cool
deez
 
KaiserAdler
Just here to have fun, good luck to everyone involved!
 
TheManxMissile
Well done to Perez for making the preview. Lets hope for good breakaways rides from the Caribbeans.
pcmdaily.com/files/Awards2023/teamhq-tmm.png

i.imgur.com/yYwvYPG.png
 
jandal7
If Pidcock doesn't win every stage I'm gonna be throwing shit
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."

[PT] i.imgur.com/c85NSl6.png Xero Racing

5x i.imgur.com/wM6Wok5.png x5
1x i.imgur.com/olRsxdu.png x1
2x pcmdaily.com/images/mg/Awards2021/funniest21.png x2
2x i.imgur.com/TUidkLG.png x2
 
Eden95
Excited for this, thanks for the preview!

Matsuda and Ocampo should be right up there in stage 1 & 6, and Cemazar should do a good job - hopefully enough for a top-10 Smile
Indosat - ANZ HQ

"This Schleck sandwich is going to cause serious indigestion for Evans" - Phil Liggett
 
Mresuperstar
Time to shine Jorgensen. Give us something to cheer about this season... Rolling Eyes
 
https://twitter.com/Mresuperstar
Bjartne
Amazing(!!!) preview SotD, thank you very much! Smile

Come on Halland Johannesen (the weak one Wink )

With only one rider here, we'll want to support the beautiful green Carlsberg jerseys this year. Really cool start list! Thanks for arranging this!
 
baseballlover312
Thank you Sotd for the amazing preview!

I'm pretty excited for this one. Forssell as a Pot 3 with good base stats has maybe the one chance of his career to get a real result here. Top sprinter and one of the best time trialists. His flat and hill will hold him back a little, but I'm still hoping for a green jersey push from him. We've never sent a true top guy to l'Avenir before (though Skjelmose next year will be in the mix), and it would be awesome to take something home from the race.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
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i.imgur.com/VCXYUyF.png
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DubbelDekker
Go Leknessund!
i.imgur.com/5iNQj.png
 
kandesbunzler26
Nice to get some mentions in the preview (apart from "What are they doing here?"Wink though just for our guest riders Bagioli and Romo. But our own riders are nearly all in their first season and next year (and/or in two years) they should be able to shine in their own right (at least in this particular race).

I'm excited to see what a race all those youngsters will create, regarding the stat differences aren't as big as in the normal races I hope for an interesting race.
i.imgur.com/77VDWQo.jpeg


i.ibb.co/PC3Kfz9/Signature2020.pngi.ibb.co/Hpc4z3S/FINALUSER.pngpcmdaily.com/files/Awards2023/mostimproved-bk26.png
 
Ollfardh
Maybe some breakaways?
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
 
Fabianski
Looking forward to finally getting something from Schmid, hopefully. He hasn't been great this year so far, so this should be his chance to shine. The TT however is awfully long for him, so the GC should be no option. Let's go for some breakaways then Smile
 
Nemolito
Ollfardh wrote:
Maybe some breakaways?


Yes, please.

Apart from half of my guys who are in the Magnum - Madshus team, the others are a bit divided over several teams. I think most of them don't need to worry about working for everyone, so hope to be able to see them in some breakaways.

Thank for the great preview, SotD Smile
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Imladrik
No pressure for our team, so let's go for breaks!
No French and only one Spanish rider in the fav' list, so let's hope the next generation is here (or with Le Creuset). Excited for the race.

Thanks for the preview !


“...the secret of the Great Stories is that they have no secrets. The Great Stories are the ones you have heard and want to hear again. The ones you can enter anywhere and inhabit comfortably."
A. Roy
 
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