Many thanks to Redordead for bailing me out with a preview.
Welcome to the 4th edition of the Tour de Vineyards. The race changes it's category from C2 to HC. The 7 day event remains the same. It ends with a 20 km TTT, so those with lesser quality against the clock will be able to rely on their teammates, but last season showed that significant changes can happen on that final stage. There are also 3 sprint stages on offer so some of the better sprinters are present, along with the time-trial specialists. They will look for glory on stage 1 and then support their leaders on the final day.
With that said let's look at some of the favourites:
GC Favourites
MO
HI
TT
RS
AC
PR
Keizer
80
70
80
78
72
80
Uran
80
72
76
78
68
76
Schelling
80
75
72
76
70
71
Bernal
79
72
76
78
68
74
Alarcon
83
72
66
72
76
65
Galta
81
73
73
79
66
71
Padun
81
77
65
74
75
65
Carthy
81
75
67
76
69
65
Penasa
80
74
70
72
76
70
Faglum Karlsson
79
73
73
75
68
79
Senni
77
73
74
79
72
74
Masnada
77
76
73
75
73
70
Min
79
76
66
77
66
66
Nerz
80
72
73
72
68
73
Bartl
77
72
71
74
70
75
Ranaweera
80
73
74
75
65
73
Warbasse
78
75
74
73
65
74
Warchol
80
74
67
77
70
67
Garby
79
70
68
76
70
68
Keizer might be the most well rounded rider for this race with his time trialing and solid TTT support. Uran can climb just as good and has excellent support with him. Same with Schelling, but he should lose some time in the ITT. Bernal has to look to limit his losses and hope his team can breakthough and snatch the victory on the final stage.
Alarcon is the best pure climber here, but he's one of the worst against the clock and his team for the final stage is average at best. He needs a big performance on the lone mountain stage. Galta is solid at everything, but great at nothing. Padun is the punchiest, maybe he can force the issue on stage 6. Carthy is a very good climber, but cycleYorshire don't have their best TTT group here in part to Carthy himself.
There are plenty of other riders who could finish high on GC if things go right for them.
Sprinters
Sprinter
FL
RS
SP
AC
Leadout
FL
RS
SP
AC
Bonifazio
79
75
80
80
Sajnok
72
74
72
71
Reinhardt
71
66
79
84
Bissegger
71
73
70
71
Maksimov
71
67
80
82
Ruiz
74
68
71
72
Perera
71
73
79
80
Hadi
68
70
74
71
Guarnieri
74
73
80
78
Breen
77
72
73
72
Kennett
75
76
79
78
Tzortzakis
70
69
75
74
Haller
72
71
80
79
Park
72
70
75
76
Kalaba
74
72
79
79
Rosas
72
70
70
74
Nizzolo
73
67
80
79
Groves
71
70
75
75
Kragh Andersen
77
74
81
77
Bouglas
72
67
78
78
Boeckmans
71
68
79
80
Kuboki
73
74
77
77
Page
75
72
78
79
Gani
75
73
76
77
Aberasturi
74
71
79
78
Alaphilippe
72
69
77
77
Zariff
68
65
78
78
Pedersen
74
75
75
75
There is actually an unsual amount of competent lead out riders here for some of the better sprinters. Bonifazio, Reinhardt and Maksimov look like best three sprinters on paper with good support in case they need it. The level of the sprinters themselves though is very even across the board.
Puncheurs
FL
HI
ST
RS
SP
AC
Bellis
74
77
79
70
73
74
Dyrnes
68
78
73
73
65
77
Slagter
68
79
71
73
61
71
Gunman
72
75
71
68
70
75
Padun
67
77
72
74
60
75
Masnada
71
76
76
75
63
73
Frankiny
69
76
72
75
61
75
As expected the puncheur list here really isn't terribly impressive with some GC riders thrown in. There is one hilly rated stage on day 6 and while it looks to be an easy one, it has shown it can punish the slower or poorly positioned riders. On the other hand it may come down to a bunch sprint or perhaps we see a breakaway allowed to have their fun.
Time Trial Specialists
TT
RS
AC
PR
Durbridge
81
74
64
81
Gonzalez Salas
80
76
54
80
Howson
80
74
68
80
Kittel
80
69
72
80
Viennet
80
75
64
80
Keizer
80
78
72
80
Lammertink
80
76
68
79
Fiedler
80
71
58
79
Dillier
80
77
62
79
Viviani
79
77
70
79
Cataford
79
75
69
79
Haugard
79
77
67
79
Mullen
80
74
70
78
The opening time-trial favours those that like shorter distance, but you still need to be a proper time-trialist to compete. So Durbridge comes in #1 here. Plenty other capable names here and time trials always produce a surprise. Keizer is the GC rider on this list and he'll want to do well to gain time on others.
Team Time Trial
Avg TT
Avg PR
Avg TTT
Polar
77,13
76,88
77,03
Team UBS
76,00
73,63
75,07
Minions
74,63
75,75
75,07
Duolingo
75,00
73,13
74,27
Los Pollos Hermanos
73,25
72,88
73,10
Red Bull Zalgiris
72,75
73,25
72,95
Aker - MOT
73,29
72,43
72,59*
Binance Cycling
71,75
73,75
72,53
Jura - Fiat
72,75
71,88
72,41
cycleYorkshire
72,50
71,75
72,21
Kraftwerk Man Machine
71,13
72,38
71,62
Cedevita
71,63
71,38
71,53
Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam
69,75
72,88
70,98
Assa Abloy
69,00
72,63
70,42
Bralirwa - Stevens
69,63
71,00
70,16
Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff
69,63
70,63
70,02
Carlsberg - Danske Bank
69,38
71,00
70,01
Philips - Force India
69,88
69,63
69,78
Carrefour - ESPN
67,75
69,25
68,34
Indosat Ooredoo
67,25
67,88
67,50
Sauber Petronas Racing
67,13
67,50
67,27
* - only 7 riders
Can Polar finally win a TTT? They really should, although Team UBS, Minions and Duolingo will try to spoil their fun.
The lack of available stage points and the TT km's made us pass on this one for Rasmus, and I'm still thinking that was a good move in the grand scheme.
So instead, Warbasse gets a leader race to tune up for the Tour of America. Hopefully the hills stage matters a little and he lives up to his TT stat, cause he's bound to lose some big time on the mountain stage, and our TTT squad is horrendous. Top 10 would be nice.
We have AKA here as well due to the plethora of flat stages. Not too worried about the level of competition with him. He'll either have it or not, but this year he's usually come out in a good place. Hopefully Bouglas doesn't mess with him - I only brought him in case the hilly stage ends in a sprint.
Thanks for the preview redordead!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
All in for the mountain stage with our team as we don't have anything for the other stages. Hopefully Penasa can keep his recent run going. Hope we can keep our momentum going as well. Some cheeky stage hunting/KOM hunting will be appreciated.
Get in, Galta! We'll need a good TT to open the race, then anything can be possible here. Just like earlier this season in a stage race with a TTT, I hope we can perform being just seven riders. We could then, and eventhough the win should be out of question here, we should do better than the predicted 7th, I hope.
Also hoping Lammertink can challenge for the stage win in the opener, eventhough there are clearly many riders capable of that looking at the preview. It will take luck with daily form, fingers crossed he can compete.
One of last races of the season for Keizer, and he should have a decent shot here. Let's hope for bangin opener and keeping that numba 1 spot for entire race
Curious to see what Min can do here. Not going to be easy with the competition. We're not even the favourites for the TTT so I'm not too confident. Looking forward to it anyway.
Thanks for the preview Ulrich and good luck everyone!
I'm afraid just 20km long TTT won't produce high enough time gaps to produce significant impact to GC which don't play in Bernal's favor. Still top 10 must be minimal requirement, top 5 or better would be awesome
Oof. Well that was as bad as it gets. I have to say, 132nd from Warbasse was not in the realm of my expectations. He lost significant time on a bunch of the pure climbers, including Garby, who are all significantly worse in TT and PRL. Add Sterobo finishing outside the top 80 and yeah... one to forget.
All aboard the AKA train!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Tour de Vineyards 
