Welcome to the US of A, welcome to California! You could travel the world, but nothing comes close to the golden coast. California girls are unforgettable, and let’s hope the 190 riders from 24 teams that have made the trip here will also make this an unforgettable edition. It will be the thirteenth edition of the race, with Taylor Phinney being the recold holder, having won it four times. Last year’s winner Pluchkin won’t be here, and neither will any other former winner of the race be. I wouldn’t dare calling the startlist bad, but looking at the climbers the PCT has to offer, it could definitely be stronger. Of course, this opens up an opportunity for some other riders, who normally have a very hard time beating the likes of Tenorio or Pluchkin, to now aim for the win and actually have a really good possibility to achieve their hopes and dreams. There might be only one mountain stage in the coming week, but it’s immediately a very hard one including a HC climb. There will also be 25 time-trial kilometres divided over two stages, as well as two hilly stages where time differences can be created. There will also be two flat stages, where the sprinters can do their thing, which is sprinting. Let’s have a look at the riders who will be trying to score some points with a good GC classification.
MTN
HIL
TT
PRO
STA
RES
REC
Denifl
83
75
71
71
73
69
74
Cattaneo
82
70
79
79
76
80
80
Eastman
82
71
77
73
76
75
76
Guldhammer
81
77
71
71
74
75
74
Uran
81
73
77
77
74
80
75
Bennett
81
76
65
65
75
74
79
Henao Montoya
81
70
70
70
74
78
75
Preidler
80
78
58
58
71
77
76
Padun
80
77
65
65
72
74
76
Martin
80
75
71
69
74
75
73
Nerz
80
72
73
73
75
72
74
Yates
79
76
71
71
79
80
76
Pomoshnikov
79
74
64
64
78
76
74
Abal
79
68
75
75
71
74
71
De la Cruz
78
75
74
74
72
76
75
Roson
78
76
61
58
67
70
77
Konig
78
74
73
73
73
74
70
Ablenado
78
67
72
72
73
77
77
Kiserlovski
78
73
70
69
69
72
69
Diaz
78
70
72
72
69
73
71
Stancu
78
69
66
66
70
74
73
Nazaret
78
69
63
63
68
75
70
Areruya
77
77
65
65
75
77
77
Raileanu
77
77
63
65
74
73
76
Squire
77
77
65
65
70
70
76
Senni
77
73
74
74
76
79
76
Faiers
77
70
74
74
74
74
76
Borisavljevic
77
73
74
74
74
74
75
Scarponi
77
75
66
66
71
72
75
Bartl
77
72
71
75
73
74
75
When it comes to pure climbing, Denifl outskills all the other participants in this Tour of California. He is also very decent in the hills, but his physical and time-trial abilities might hinder him in his quest to GC glory. Eastman and Cattaneo might be a bit worse in the mountains and hills, but are still world-class GC riders. They will both be very hard to tire, and will also gain a lot of time on the other GC riders during the two time-trials, although home rider Eastman would have preferred one longer time trial instead of two shorter ones. Uran is definitely also one of the main contenders, who will show his skills both in the mountain stage and during the time trials. If we have a look at other decent time-trialists in the list of favourites we find Abal, who has the not so easy job of replacing Desigual’s leader Tenorio. The old Spaniard might not be the same rider he was a couple of years ago, which definitely shows in the hills, but could he be one of the surprising names in the top-10, or even top-5?
Guldhammer, Bennett, Martin, Padun, Preidler, Yates and Pomoshnikov are all decent hybrids and know how to survive both in the mountains and hills, but seem to lack the time-trial capacities to really aim for the win in California. Nevertheless, if they manage to have some superb results In the hills and mountains, they might just manage to actually surprise the bigger favourites as well by keeping their advantage. They will all be dreaming of this, but one man already knows he’s so terrible at time-trials to really have a chance at winning, even when he wins all the other stages. I’m talking about you, Preidler.
Henao Montoya and Nerz are both strong climbers, and while they are not the best puncheurs or time-trialists, they are also not the worst. They can count on some very decent domestiques, which have already proven their worth this season: Bartl and De la Cruz.
So far for the GC riders, let’s have a look at other riders who have a shot at winning one or more stages. First, the time-trialists.
TT
PRO
STA
RES
REC
Kittel
81
81
74
70
68
Paillot
80
80
75
74
68
Sergent
80
80
69
74
71
Howson
80
80
73
74
72
Schädlich
80
80
70
71
73
Cattaneo
79
79
76
80
80
Fraile
79
79
74
76
72
Mottin
79
79
67
74
69
Sterobo
78
78
74
69
69
Janse van Rensburg
78
78
71
71
69
Nareklishvili
78
76
70
74
69
Van Niekerk
78
77
73
75
72
Golovash
78
78
72
69
66
Hofer
78
78
74
72
68
Atkins
78
77
74
75
72
Kittel has the best papers here, at least definitely for the prologue. If the following five stages prove too hard and tiring for him, the odds move into the favour of Howson and Schädlich. Who knows, maybe Cattaneo or even Fraile will actually come out of the mountain stage so fresh, that they have the biggest possibility of being victorious in the epilogue. Paillot and Sergent are the other names to keep an eye on, as they definitely have a good chance of winning any of the time trials themselves.
There will also be two stages for the puncheurs, if the break is caught on time of course. The best puncheurs in California are listed below.
MON
HIL
SPR
ACC
STA
RES
REC
Schreurs
69
81
71
74
76
72
71
Chaves
76
79
60
72
74
73
72
Yates
70
79
77
80
77
70
73
Gebrezgabihier
70
79
67
69
74
74
72
Preidler
80
78
50
69
71
77
76
Guldhammer
81
77
70
76
74
75
74
Padun
80
77
60
75
72
74
76
Areruya
77
77
68
74
75
77
77
Squire
77
77
61
71
70
70
76
Raileanu
77
77
59
70
74
73
76
Teklit
70
77
64
70
75
72
70
Skjerping
70
77
58
65
71
67
68
Dieteren
70
77
63
66
75
70
68
Mudarra
68
77
64
68
74
70
71
Bennett
81
76
65
73
75
74
79
Yates
79
76
67
76
79
80
76
Schreurs is without a doubt the best pure puncheur, but at the same time one of the worst climbers on the list mentioned above. Let’s hope for the Dutch champion that this won’t hurt him too much, and he remains a possible stage winner. Chaves, Yates and Gebrezgabihier are three other names that will be considered favourites by the bookmakers, and probably by the other riders in the peloton as well. If a reduced peloton goes to the finish with Yates, you already know the Desigual rider will degrade the others.
On the list we can also see several GC names, including Yates. Two brothers in one race, that’s always interesting.
Last but not least, let’s see what sprinters will be looking for a win in the second and/or fifth stage.
SPR
ACC
STA
RES
REC
Maksimov
81
84
70
69
75
Zabel
81
79
74
70
79
Ciolek
81
76
70
66
73
Bonifazio
80
80
68
75
71
Kupfernagel
80
80
73
66
78
Mohs
80
77
68
59
71
Boivin
79
80
74
70
79
Lutsyshyn
79
80
69
73
74
Van der Sande
79
79
78
73
76
Kalaba
79
79
70
72
76
Stepniak
79
79
70
70
75
Vingerling
79
79
72
66
76
Aberasturi
79
78
73
71
76
Havik
79
76
74
68
75
Canelon
78
83
65
69
70
Vaquera
78
80
69
65
73
Maksimov, Zabel, Ciolek, Bonifazio and Kupfernagel seem to be the five best sprinters, with two dark horses, according to this humble reporter, being Van der Sande and Canelon.
The only thing left for me to do is to share the startlist, the only thing left for the riders to do is to win some stages and the GC!
I'd say we have a kinda weak squad for a HC race, but this is the team we have when Kudus isn't racing.
Dunbar has been great in stage races so far, but this one is probably too hard for him to be a factor in GC. Ideally Roson tries to go for KoM and the mountain stage win before getting destroyed in the TT?
Kittel needs to step up his game. He's yet to finish in the Top8 of a TT this season in 4 attempts, and here he does have a great chance to get stage + race lead in the first day. The last day will probably be too late into the race for him to win it from Cattaneo/Fraile, if he even makes the time cut on the hard days.
More than this, breakaways i hope, and maybe Valter to continue with his great form of U25 results
I hope the trio of Nepomnyachsniy, Gilanipoor and Ablenado can provide some solid GC results. Otherwise breakaways is the way to go for every rider here.
Mottin is a waste of space in what is an excellent preview
Nemolito wrote: Guldhammer, Bennett, Martin, Padun, Preidler, Yates and Pomoshnikov are all decent hybrids and know how to survive both in the mountains and hills, but seem to lack the time-trial capacities to really aim for the win in California. Nevertheless, if they manage to have some superb results In the hills and mountains, they might just manage to actually surprise the bigger favourites as well by keeping their advantage. They will all be dreaming of this, but one man already knows he’s so terrible at time-trials to really have a chance at winning, even when he wins all the other stages. I’m talking about you, Preidler.
It's not like I don't have Plan B prepared for this race - I've sent Konig as well, who proved to be very decent as both the leader and as secondary option (as seen in Hong Kong). A low key dark horse is Panayotov - while he's worse on MO and HI stat than Preidler, he's a little bit better on TT (Konig is better on TT than both, but he's also lacking high HI stat; Aasvold is with second highest HI stat)
Praying that Faiers and Diaz can pick up some top 15 GC points here and as we have seen this year already Boivin can mix it with better sprinters than him so praying for points there as well.
I decided to not send/ran out of RDs for Gesink here. Not sure it was the smartest decision with that startlist. Anyway, were looking to fight for stage honours with our secondary leaders, but it's going to be tough to find success.
Guldhammer could be a good bet, perhaps?
Good luck everyone and thanks for yet another race Nemolito!
After what I saw from Montoya on the hill stages in Portugal, I don't have much hope of a good result in this race.
But if by chance he doesn't lose a lot of time on stages 3 and 4 then a top 10 may be possible.
The team was made around Montoya so Kupfernagel will not have any help in steps 2 and 5, and choosing the wheel of another rider will be the best solution for him
for me Yates is the biggest candidate for victory in this race
Fairly shocking from Bennett, will be hard to claw that back especially with the epilogue to come. Nice to see Morne in white for a day or two though. Thanks for the preview and reports Nemo!
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Nice to see Paillot winning here, something he unfortunately was far off last year for me in most cases, though mainly important for TTT anyway.
In PCT he can use his skillset a lot more.
Tour of California
