Welcome to Singapore and Malaysia. Despite all measures to combat the corona virus, they are able to host the third edition of the Jelajah SKL, albeit without spectators. I've tried my best to find out what the abbreviation SKL stands for, the best I could find was a furniture store or the "Save Kuala Lumpur" organization. The first edition was won by local rider Anuar Aziz, the second was won by Slagter who rode for the local Sauber Petronas team at the time. While Anuar Aziz now rides for Sauber Petronas, the team has chosen not to participate, and Campari leaves Slagter at home, meaning we will see a new name on the history list. The winners suggest this is a race for puncheurs, but looking at the profiles it is all but a regular hills race. There are four stages in only two days, a short time trial and a regular stage on each day, so multi-disciplinity is a pro. Only 14 teams and 106 riders makes this one of the smaller startlists.
Profiles
The race starts in Singapore with a prologue. The riders then depart the city state for a flat rated stage to Malaysia, but the hills in the final part suggest it won't be a straightforward sprint. The third stage is rated as hilly and is the stage where the puncheurs are here for. Concluding the race is another very short time trial in the capital of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, although it should appropriately be called an epilogue.
Startlist
Prologue
PRL
HL
SP
Prologue
PRL
HL
SP
Zmorka
82
66
62
Balloni
78
66
63
Fiedler
81
67
65
Sterobo
78
63
56
Kittel
81
64
60
Golovash
78
60
73
Kemboi
81
63
80
Pszczolarski
77
70
71
Paillot
80
71
63
Postlberger
77
68
69
Sergent
80
69
61
Atkins
77
68
61
Gonzalez Salas
80
60
61
Silvestre
77
67
80
Cataford
79
70
60
Scully
77
67
79
Mottin
79
61
51
Van Niekerk
77
67
61
Schomber
79
58
69
Predatsch
77
55
54
There are three important stats for the race: prologue, sprint and hill. We start with the stage favorites on the opener and closer. All four of these stages in all its history have been won by Chavanne for Sauber Petronas, but he made his way up to the PT with Evonik, thus a new specialist over short distance will stand up.
The favorite for the pro/epilogue is Zmorka. In fact, Repsol has three contenders with the Ukrainian, Kittel and Gonzalez Salas. A full podium sweep?
On such a short distance, creating large gaps is difficult. Fiedler, Paillot and Sergent are all close to the Repsol trio, and the win will likely come down to milliseconds.
A prologue specialist is not automatically a time trial specialist. Sprinters are fast over short distances and can be contenders for the stage wins. Kemboi is probably the best amongst the fast men, with honorable mentions to Silvestre and Scully.
Schomber is a special case, as he doesn't like long time trials and doesn't know how to sprint, but he is fast on the prologue, finishing tenth on the first stage last year. Despite not being a favorite, Balloni finished second tht time around.
Sprint
SP
HL
PRL
Sprint
SP
HL
PRL
Zabel
81
69
55
Lander
79
69
59
Nelson
81
60
72
Scully
79
67
77
Silvestre
80
67
77
Ackermann
77
77
68
Kemboi
80
63
81
Merino Criado
77
68
56
Drapac
80
53
60
Favilli
76
75
67
Houle
79
75
69
Einhorn
74
60
64
Not that many pure sprinters participating in this race, which is logical given the lack of chancess. However, having Einhorn as twelfth-best sprinter in the race is an insultingly weak field (no offense to Einhorn).
The two favorites are Zabel and Nelson. The former might be able to handle the hill but his prologue is a big letdown for a GC, while the latter will likely be one of the first to get into trouble despite being decent over a short distance.
As the sprinters stage contains a hill shortly before the end, it's worth looking at the punchy sprinters. Houle is a rider who will definitely be in contention, as are Ackermann and Favilli.
If they don't take the lead on stage one, Silvestre, Kemboi and Scully are contenders to take the jersey on stage two. They will definitely be within twenty seconds, which is the amount of bonus seconds the regular stage winners receive.
The other contenders belong to the top ten on paper are Drapac, Lander and Merino Criado, but that doesn't mean they are assured of a top ten.
Hill
HL
PRL
SP
Mountain
MO
PRL
SP
Di Maggio
82
62
65
Intxausti
80
75
60
Dowsett
80
63
66
Konig
78
73
59
Turgis
79
68
70
Giogieri
78
67
55
Landa
78
57
61
Ablenado
78
72
51
Guerreiro
77
62
72
Schleck
77
61
52
Bettiol
77
67
71
Panayotov
77
67
63
Mutsumine
77
64
63
Gilanipoor
77
68
56
Duchesne
77
68
69
Vinhas
77
57
53
Jung
77
61
63
Hill/Mountain
HL/MO
PRL
SP
Kanepejs
77
69
62
Carpenter
76
68
66
Afonso
77
58
57
Kebede
76
66
60
Ackermann
77
68
77
De Vos
75
68
62
Diggle
77
70
64
Dunbar
75
75
60
Finally the puncheurs, where the superstars have decided to stay home. The perfect chance for a rider usually in the shadows to step out in the light.
The best puncheur is Di Maggio. He finished on the podium in the first edition, but his ability on the time trial will be his big let down. Same story for Dowsett, and most of the other puncheurs to be fair.
The puncheur with the best time trial ability is Diggle, but still far off the prologue specialists. Ackermann is the best puncheur who can also leave his mark in a sprint.
Hills are just shorter mountains, so a worth to look at these riders as well. Intxausti and Konig look like good contenders for the overall as they are not bad on the prologues, and their ability on the mountains suggest they will survive the tougher stages.
Another rider to look out for is "mister 75" Dunbar. Good in all three disciplines: mountains, hills and prologues. Unlikely he will win a stage, but the general and youth classifications are his target.
Favorites
HL/MO
PRL
SP
Outsiders
HL/MO
PRL
SP
Intxausti
80
75
60
Houle
75
69
79
Konig
78
73
59
Debesay
74
74
69
Nepomnyachsniy
76
76
50
Giogieri
78
67
55
Ablenado
78
72
51
Groselj
75
72
72
Bazhkou
75
76
63
Trofimov
76
70
67
Dees
75
76
60
Dowsett
80
63
66
Dunbar
75
75
60
Duchesne
77
68
69
Ahmad Zamri
75
75
59
Gilanipoor
77
68
56
Turgis
79
68
70
Durasek
74
73
59
Cataford
72
79
60
Sterobo
71
78
56
Di Maggio
82
62
65
Sergent
69
80
61
Figueiredo
76
72
59
Silvestre
67
77
80
Diggle
77
70
64
Scully
67
77
79
Paillot
71
80
63
Fiedler
67
81
65
Ackermann
77
68
77
Zmorka
66
82
62
Kanepejs
77
69
62
Kemboi
63
81
80
So, what is the winning combination for this race? You have to be able to survive the hills, not be that bad in the time trials, and sprinting is a positive but not necessarily a negative. The algorithm to determine the favorites is definitely not sound and has many flaws, but it takes into account a weighted average of MO or HL and PRL, with a bonus for high SP.
Intxausti is named as biggest favorite. Not a bad shout, he will survive the hills and will lose little time in the pro-/epilogue. Konig and Ablenado also places high, but it is based on the assumption that MO and HL are interchangeable, which is a serious simplification.
Some riders which don't show up in the individual overviews come forward here which is only logical. Nepomnyachsniy, Bazhkou and Dees can all climb and ride against the clock, so a high GC position is not unthinkable.
Dunbar is the highest ranked rider eligible for the youth classification, but also a good shout for the general classification. Local hero Ahmad Zamri is similar to the Irishman but can only focus on the latter.
Amongst the puncheurs, Turgis is the favorite apparently. He ranks a bit higher than Di Maggio, because he's not much worse in the hills but much, much better on the prologues, although that is down to the Italian's lack of skill.
Cataford is the highest ranked prologue specialist. He might not be in the lead come the final stage, but he has the skills to close a small gap in four kilometer. Same goes for Paillot.
At the very bottom we have a few riders which the algorithm doesn't rank very high, but can become an outsider due to their excellence in a certain discipline. Sergent, Fiedler and Zmorka will struggle on stage three, but if the pace is not too high they might recover their loss in the time trials.
Silvestre, Scully and Kemboi are in the same predicament, but they might want to hold on to the bonus seconds for the top three on the second stage, for which they are favorites.
However, the winner of the third stage also receives bonus seconds, and the puncheurs are favored for those. Houle has the capability to challenge on both stages appears higher on the list due to his ability in both hills and sprints, but prologues is his weak point.
This will either be a total banger or a total fail, it's really hard to predict cause Benat is bipolar and you never know what he's gonna do. But Dees Nuts can do well, and especially Ahmad Zamri as he already has a good result in similar race under his belt.
It all comes down to the hilly stage. IA favourite wise this should similar to Hong Kong, so i expect Dunbar to be well treated and not miss any splits. Winning GC is a long shot, but it's not so unrealistic as long as Cataford and Paillot are dropped. U25 jersey is a must though
Hopefully Zmorka can show he's the top prologuist in the divisions and win both prologues and the Points jersey. Every point counts, so Kittel and Salas have to do good prologues too, and hopefully step up for the win if Zmorka fails.
Overall, an important race for the team, and given the variability of the possible outcomes, a season-defining one
Well, why did we chose this race... Probably because the manager was euphoric of having a 77 PRL rider?!? But that's of course not enough to be among the favorites for the stage win for Scully. Maybe he'll make it over the hills on stage 2 and sprint for a top result there?
However, we do have some hopes for stage 3 - especially bringing our two most aggressive puncheurs in Thièry and Lienhard, who will hopefully have a shot at the KoM jersey. They won't be able to keep up with the best puncheurs, but with a rather small peloton, let's see what is possible.
Guess thats okay? All our 3 GC hopefuls in decent positions incase there are gaps on S3. Just gotta hope for no strong winds on the flat stage and we should be okay
Schomber edges closer to greatness, can't wait for the epic meltdown of the rest of the Conglomerate when he takes his first win
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
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No points, but 14th is a good TT result for us anyway
Good to see that Scully is quite close - although given his stats he could even have matched Silvestre's time... Berg are definitely on a roll right now, although Swift didn't deliver yesterday.
Lienhard did pretty well, too - he might become an option for a scoring GC result. But I'd prefer seeing him go for the KoM jersey instead - let's see.
what a pleasant surprise this victory was, not even in my best thoughts would I be expecting this.
The idea was to try not to waste too much time in the prologue and then try to reach the lead in the 2nd stage. With this victory, the team should be at the front of the race which can help Silvestre to get a good position.
Yeah, great job by Scully Too bad he couldn't follow Kemboi, but 3rd definitely is a nice result! Lienhard was in the mix, too, let's hope he'll do just as well on stage 3, where Scully will likely not be able to keep up.
Thanks for the report, and congrats to Farfetch, who definitely are on their way back up!
jandal7 wrote:
Schomber edges closer to greatness, can't wait for the epic meltdown of the rest of the Conglomerate when he takes his first win
Evonik has won more time trials than Schomber will win stages in his career. But i am sure he will get a great GC result here to prove his doubters wrong...
Jelajah SKL 
