Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the PT sprinter show which is the Tour of Qatar! As always in the last 10+ years, this race marks the kick-off for the fastest PT boys - a truly stacked startlist awaits us once again!
5 pan-flat stages plus an epilogue - the formula is still the same, and so are the stages - more or less. In fact, after a checking the stages - and especially their final kilometers - MGUCI demanded some minor modifications. This is why the distances only match the pre-season profile ones by +/- 3km - which the pros won't really care about. The only modification that might indeed cause a difference is the addition of 500m to the epilogue. But let's not talk too much about the profiles, just take a look at them:
A sprinter will win this race, that's pretty much sure. But which one? There's so much quality at the start line - for example, six combined GC wins! We have the winners from the last five years here, with defending champion Eduard Grosu leading the field. John Degenkolb (2018, 2016), Sam Bewley (2017) and Ben Swift (2015, 2012) already know how to win here, too.
But of course, plenty of other riders will fight for the win, too. Let's take a look at the strongest sprinters and their support!
Bryan Coquard was the number 1 favorite last year - he gets the same label again. He is the fastest sprinter in the field - together with the next two riders - and has got the best acceleration of the peloton. Moreover, he is a fantastic prologue rider, and hence will be in the (extended) favorites list on every single stage. His main weakness might be his relatively low flat stat compared with other top sprinters.
In terms of leadout, Festina - OAKA are taking a different strategy from last year. Whereas they brougth two men who could have been a leader in other teams in 2019, they now have Bouglas and Farantakis as "true" leadouts. And don't forget Karatzios, who will probably be chasing breakaways once more. So the support should be strong enough - can the Frenchman deliver this time?
John Degenkolb is back! After he wasn't able to defend his title last year due to the lack of a wildcard, the unbelievable has happend: he left "his" team and jumped up to PT, meaning he'll try to get his 3rd title this year! The German is just as fast as Coquard, but has a slightly lower acceleration. Despite his better flat riding skills, one thing might hurt him in the very end: he will definitely lose some seconds to the Frenchman in the epilogue. Can he gain enough bonus seconds before that?
When we look at his support, we see that ISA - Hexacta is trying a strategy similar to what didn't work out for Festina last year: using Petit as a leadout. But it could work, as Santos is slightly weaker than the Frenchman, so they might build an actual train. Plus, all three sprinters have very good skills on the flat. With Feng and Mraouni, there are two more "flat beasts" - the sprint preparation shouldn't be an issue for the team! Can Degenkolb benefit from this and become the first three time winner?
Michael Van Stayen will try to prevent this, trying to get the first win on his own - with what will likely be his last shot. The 32 year old is the third and final of the "very fast boys". But compared with the two previously presented sprinters, he definitely lacks some acceleration - and is even worse in short time trials than Degenkolb. Despite his good flat stat, he'll likely struggle to get the overall win - or can he simply win the first five stages?
You won't be surprised to read that his team support is great - especially on the flat. Stoltz is an absolute beast on this terrain, seconded by Dzamastagic and Neilands. But all their riders are strong on the flat, as you surely know. In terms of leadout, however, they might be lacking the perfect rider. Chavanne, Blythe and Dzamastagic are definitely no slow guys, but... their boss might actually go for train surfing rather than train building. How will it work out?
We then go to the next group of three sprinters - all with an 83 sprint stat. Presumably the strongest among them is Jonas Ahlstrand. He just loses one point each in sprint and acceleration to Coquard, making him a really well-balanced sprinter, too. While he matches the Frenchman on the flat, his clearly lower epilogue skills might keep him from the overall win - but that's definitely something we thought about last year's winner, too.
What's sure is that the Swede brings one of the strongest leadouts in Appollonio. What's missing is the third man in the train, so the Italian might actually go for glory on his own. And the team doesn't have the best flat riders, either - the sprinters are themselves the strongest on this terrain. Will it be enough to prepare the sprints for Ahlstrand? And will he be able to compete at the same level as he did last year in PCT?
Ben Swift, the second two time winner after Degenkolb, is next on the list. He won a stage last year and was 3rd in the GC - but he's starting to feel the age factor kicking in. He would definitely have been among the top favorites again in last year's shape, and even now he's not much slower. He pretty much matches Ahlstrand, but has slightly lower TT skills. So the dream of a third title seems to be a tad unrealistic - but he definitely still has a stage win or two in him!
And his team Berg Cycles - one of two wildcard PCT teams - will try everything to get him there. They're adopting the "Festina strategy" this time, bringing two very strong leadout sprinters in Silvestre and Kupfernagel. Given the Portuguese's prologue stat, he might actually even be the better leader choice GC-wise... The support on the flat is great as well, with Silvestre himself being very strong, and Reckweg and Kortsidakis will surely do a great job, too. But will their strategy work out better than it did for Festina last year?
The final sprinter in this trio is last year's winner Eduard Grosu. And he comes last because he's got the lowest acceleration of these three - although it's still better than e.g. Van Stayen's. The Romanian surely won't win the race in the epilogue - but last year he didn't lose it, either, delivering a solid performance. He'll surely target a back-to-back win - will he succeed?
The potential sprint train at least looks really promising, with Van Poppel being a good sprinter in his own right, and Van der Kooij being a good 3rd man. Ariesen, Vermeltfoort and Lampaert should be tasked with chasing duties, and then try to setup the train. Grosu's win was a small surprise last year - can he beat the odds (and the competition) again?
We again step down one level in terms of top speed - a level even the legend Sam Bewley has dropped to after his first decline. Nonetheless, with his great combo of sprint, acceleration and flat, along with a really nice resistance, he'll still be among the favorites on the flat stages. The closing stage is definitely not his trump card, but he still handles his TT bike better than many other sprinters. Does he still have another GC win in him?
A lot will depend on his team, as he isn't among the very fastest men anymore. And his support in terms of leadout is impressive, with Granjel Cabrera and Soupe are more or less at the same level; let's see if they can agree on an order in the sprint train. Baska will be the first man in this train, as he's slightly weaker but does have a good speed on the flat and an even better resistance than his captain. If they get their setup right, they should be able to pull Bewley to some great results!
Onto last year's runner-up, Dylan Groenewegen. The Dutch had an impressive season, often labeled as "overperformer". His run definitely started here in Qatar, and he'll try to show everyone it wasn't just pure luck. He matches Bewley's top speed, but has a slightly worse acceleration. His flat skills are similar to most others, and he shouldn't lose too much time in the epiloge, either. All in all, he's a pretty well-rounded rider for this race - let's see if his 2019 season was a one-hit-wonder, or if he can do even better this time!
A disadvantage compared to many others is his team support, however. Sure, Bauhaus can do a great job leading him out, but as with Ahlstrand, there might be missing a "locomotive". Toupalik and van der Hoorn are pretty good on the flat, but they can't sprint and maybe don't have the resistance it takes to compete with the stronger trains. However, Groenewegen did a great job in "train surfing" last year, so the team probably won't be too worried about this.
Peter Kennaugh surely isn't the top favorite for the GC, due to the many seconds he'll lose in the epilogue. But he matches Groenewegen's top speed and asseleration, and is as fast on the flat as Bewley. This combination once again makes him a candidate for great stage results - he won a stage in 2016, in 2018 - and in 2020?
But the team support could be stronger, as Air France - KLM just send the minimum of 6 riders to this race. Their roster doesn't contain another flat specialist besides Kennaugh himself, but at least Major and Clarke could do some leadout work. However, just as Groenewegen, the Brit was a "train surfer" last year and is likely to do so again this time. Will the lottery work out in his favor?
Leigh Howard is the winner of last year's stage 2, and finished the race in 5th place. He's another one of those 82-sprinters, but his acceleration isn't top-notch. Nor is his TT skill, but at least he's really strong on the flat. But will it be enough to repeat his stage win, or to even improve on his GC result from last season?
But unlike last year, the team support is very strong this time. Meyer is a very strong leadout - and it's an open question if he should even have been the team leader, given his strong prologue skills. Kennett completes the train whereas Wohler, Christensen and Culey will be the breakaways' nightmare. It's a really strong setup, and Howard shouldn't be train surfing too much this year. Can he benefit from his teammates' work?
Rounding off this group is Romain Vanderbiest. The Frenchman is in his last prime year - and will try to win his second stage after a success back in 2011. However, his great speed comes with a rather low-ish acceleration, so positioning will be key for him. He's as strong as most others on the flat - and probably slightly stronger than many others in the closing stage. Will that be enough for a decent GC position? Or even another stage win?
In each case, he should be able to count on his teammates. Goss, Suryadi, Markus and Speirs could all help with the leadout, whereas Ji is a true beast on the flat. All the ingredients for potential success are there - how will it work out in the race?
Sondre Holst Enger is next on the list, as we arrive at the "81-sprinters". The Norvegian might stand above most all other sprinters in the final GC, due to his potential in short TTs. But he might need some luck to get good stage results, especially due to his subpar acceleration. Still, it would be a mistake to rule him out right away - and he'll surely want to show everyone he can do well even in PT, right?
And he can surely count on a decent leadout support; however, the two Frenchies Boudat and Bar are pretty similar, so they'll have to get the order right... Probably they will put Bar first, given his great flat skills - and he isn't the only one on the team, as Atkins, Tennant, Van Baarle and Coppel build a rock solid team on that terrain. Will the PT newbies upset the established teams with this setup?
We won't present the remaining 81-sprinters Van Poppel and Appollonio, as they'll most probably lead out their stronger sprint captains. Nonetheless, we get to a very interesting rider in Salem Kemboi. The 25 year old Kenyan is the huge favorite for the U25 jersey - especially given his top-notch prologue skills. And by the way, he's a really good sprinter, too - although he might struggle to get more than just some minor bonus seconds. But if he gets some, he could land very, very high up in the GC and steal loads of points from the PT teams. And just to say, he's very strong on the flat, too, and has a great resistance as his final trump card... How much will the PT managers hate him by the end of this race?
His manager probably thought he would be strong enough on his own; he just brings Kamberaj as a possible leadout, and van den Berg for the sprint preparation. The rest of the team won't be a big help for him - but does he even need that?
Let's close this part of the preview with Moreno Moser. The Italian matches Kemboi's top speed, but that's pretty much the only domain where he can keep up. OK, his acceleration is just a tiny bit weaker, but he's clearly inferior in the time trial, on the flat and in terms of resistance.
And when we look at his team, he's a really poor guy. While Team Tinkoff brought four!!! 80+ sprinters last year, he won't even get a proper leadout this time. At least, Manakov, Malori and Vorobev have got some good flat skills, so the positioning should work. Then, he'll have to pick the right wheel and hope for some great legs.
Meyer, Silvestre, Kupfernagel, Petit and Goss all belong to this category as well - but they're all here as leadouts.
And now, let's actually take a look at some numbers:
Rider
Spr
Acc
Prl
Fla
Res
Coquard
84
83
79
73
74
Degenkolb
84
81
67
76
71
Van Stayen
84
78
60
76
71
Ahlstrand
83
82
72
74
73
Swift
83
81
69
73
69
Grosu
83
80
70
73
70
Bewley
82
82
70
77
75
Groenewegen
82
81
72
73
71
Kennaugh
82
81
63
77
71
Howard
82
79
68
76
70
Vanderbiest
82
77
74
74
69
Enger
81
78
77
73
73
Van Poppel
81
78
72
72
71
Appollonio
81
78
61
74
66
Silvestre
80
81
77
78
71
Kemboi
80
80
81
78
77
Kupfernagel
80
80
74
74
66
Moser
80
79
72
72
69
Petit
80
78
66
76
72
Meyer
80
76
78
72
65
Goss
80
75
63
72
68
With 5 stages having lots of bonus seconds at stake, it is very likely that the overall winner will come from this group. But let's look at those who will target the final stage - and a potential Top 10 GC result:
Rider
Prl
Res
Andersen
83
78
Leung
82
77
Chavanne
82
76
Kemboi
81
77
Coppel
81
75
Vlatos
81
71
Yatsevich
80
81
Stoltz
80
79
Sütterlin
80
77
Paillot
80
74
Würtz
79
78
Viviani
79
77
Hepburn
79
77
Haugard
79
77
Lammertink
79
76
Coquard
79
74
Hansen
79
73
Malori
79
73
Brändle
79
73
Van Winden
79
68
When talking about the U25 riders, we already saw that there's probably no way past Salem Kemboi, as he's the strongest sprinter AND the strongest time trialist (for short races, of course) among them.
But who could come after him? In terms of sprinters, we have Hsuan Ping Hsu, Jiankun Liu and Euro-Millionaire Mads Pedersen - followed by Jingbiao Zhao, who could benefit from his strong prologue skills to get a great result.
And when speaking about TT, we can't look past Filippo Ganna, who will be an absolute beast in two years. Benjamin Thomas, Ivo Oliveira and Callum Scotson are other podium contenders in the U25 standings.
And the final question: Who will win the team standings? It will very, very probably come down to the epilogue, where lots of teams have a great depth of specialists. Grieg-Maersk might stand above the rest, having the top favorite plus two 79 riders. But King Power have even more depth. Evonik - ELKO and Farfetch Pro Cycling bring two 80+ riders each, but may be lacking the strong 3rd man. cycleYorkshire, Festina - OAKA with last year's epilogue winner Vlatos, Team Puma - SAP or Team Tinkoff - La Datcha might all be in the mix, too - a wide open race!
Enough words, now let's just take a look at the picture you all were waiting for: The startlist!
The first stage will be posted tomorrow evening, to give Tzortzakis, Silvestre, Verschaeve, Menten and De Bod enough time to fly over from Down Under. We'll go with the classic 1 stage per day.
What an outstanding preview! I hate how my team isn't mentioned a single time, but that's no surprise given our squad is built this season. No Katrasnik this time, but Per, Jans, Tarvis and more should be set for attacks (even if the UCI cut the chances for attackers by shredding those final kms).
Regarding my own team, as you say, I don't care about leadout strength as Groenewegen won't get one anyway. Last year it was more annoying as Sbaragli would have done good for him without doing more than 2-3 times.
This year it's about train jumping which hopefully works well. Bauhaus is just in my team for filling but likely the most unneeded rider in my squad I guess.
Frison could need a +5 for a surprise top10 in the prologue, but GC top5-10 or more would be with Groenewegen anyway.
Another opportunity to see how the PCM behaves with my triple Swift / Silvestre / Kupfernagel. This race is not important for us as it is a PT wildcard so whatever the result will be good.
Could not fit Halvorsen in this race with him we would have a 3rd leadout man but hopefully the team can make it work anyway somehow..
Dont expect Ahlstrand to do as good season as last but hope he can give us some important points!
Not sure what to expect, but Zhao and Kuboki are our best bets for the GC. Not really much expectations here, but hoping to be pleasantly surprised, with how random sprints always are. Too bad Kemboi is here, or our U25 points could maybe be higher.
Over the years, this race has more often than not frustrated me. thought about kicking it out of Van Stayens calendar more than once over the seasons but despite his bad PRL, i felt forced to bring him again - especially once i missed out on my fourth, fifth and sixth pthc priorities :p
As long as Chavanne and Stoltz finish s.t. throughout the race, not havibg echelons might actually benefit me slightly but Evonik wouldnt be Evonik if we wouldnt be prepared with a sick echelons team :D
Great preview! I hope Hsu can show himself in some of the sprints, I think he should be at least stronger than a few of the riders listed in the sprinters table. Last year all my tt/prologue specialists were on a bad day at the epilogue I hope it won't be like this this year. With 4 79 or more prl I obviously also hope for a decent result in the team standings. I'm looking forward to the reports
We're still stuck in the dream of Qatar being a windy race Brought the flat guys, so hopefully they can do something. Can't expect Pedersen to really be involved in the sprints, but some breaks and a good epilogue will be our target, with the possibility of winning the teams classification. Excited to see what Kragh can do as a maxed rider, though it's hard to expect a win in a short TT.
Top-10 is all we dan hope for Gc wise and in terms of stage wins. Strong team with 82-79-79-78-76 and Ji so hopefully something can be salvaged here. Coq surely the iut and our fav too
Seeing how poorly Coquard performed here last season our expectations are very low.
It will be interesting to see whether or not our sprint train works better, worse or at similar level than last season as it is significantly worse than last season.
No expectations for results here, meaning we really should be joining breakaways.
Coquard and Degenkolb must be the favourites, but I'm also curious to see Swift again and maybe even Holloway and Kemboi. If Holloway is "allowed" to sprint, he showed last year he's brilliant for PCM18. Even with the decline, his flat and resistance is kind of unique, and clearly brilliant for this game, and then there's also Kemboi who is very similar.
A big outing for ISA - Hexacta; this is a sponsor win goal race. With the close season signing of Degenkolb he is our obvious leader here. We have provided what will hopefully be a successful lead-out train, assuming PCM18 AI plays ball in (i) identifying Degenkolb as a favourite, hence train potential, and (ii) then sets up as intended with the final 3 being Santos - Petit - Dege. All have 76 FL, similar RES and increasing SP stat. Back up options of Mraouni and Juarez can also be called upon if the pack splits and some members are on the wrong side. Think the lowest FL stat in the 8-man selection is 74 with the assumption that we will be expected to contribute to hunting down the BotD. Also hopefully stands us in good stead if wind becomes a factor at all.
Fingers crossed, one of the races that will define our season. Although set as a win goal, top 5 overall would be very acceptable as would indicate our sprint approach has worked to some extent at least.
ember wrote:
No expectations for results here, meaning we really should be joining breakaways.
Coquard and Degenkolb must be the favourites, but I'm also curious to see Swift again and maybe even Holloway and Kemboi. If Holloway is "allowed" to sprint, he showed last year he's brilliant for PCM18. Even with the decline, his flat and resistance is kind of unique, and clearly brilliant for this game, and then there's also Kemboi who is very similar.
Can only hope so, but no preview should out does not usually bode well!
Otherwise will be hoping Kneisky can get some breakaway bonus seconds!
Tour of Qatar 
We're just here because big MGUCI forces us to, but this preview might just be the highlight of our race.
Brought the flat guys, so hopefully they can do something. Can't expect Pedersen to really be involved in the sprints, but some breaks and a good epilogue will be our target, with the possibility of winning the teams classification. Excited to see what Kragh can do as a maxed rider, though it's hard to expect a win in a short TT. 
