Bem vindo a Portugal, where we are going to follow one of the longest stage races of the MGCUI calendar during the next 11 days - and hopefully one of the most spectacular ones as well!
What's for sure is that - given good weather conditions - we'll get some beautiful views of the gorgeous country of Portugal, be it the seaside, hills, or mountains. The riders, though, won't have time to admire these, but they'll hopefully provide us with a lot of action!
Actually, we do have exactly the same parcours as last year, so the 2019 results might give us a hint what it takes to win this race: you need to be a good climber, and you have to be strong on the hills as well. With the amount of hilly stages (the flat rated ones are actually rather hilly-ish, too), one could argue that the puncheurs should have decent chances of winning this one. Well, they might - if there wasn't this huge mountain stage on the second to last day! Furthermore, climbers seem to do rather well on longer hills this year - and we've got quite a lot of them! - the top favorites are probably the climbing-heavy hybrids.
When we speak of winning the Volta a Portugal - we'll definitely have a new winner this year! Last season's champion Nicolas Roche went down to CT and isn't allowed to start here, and all other former champions have either retired or are absent as well. We do have last year's runner-up Meintjes here, though. Furthermore: 5th Bennett, 6th Bobridge, 7th Chiarello.
Well, therefore let's take a look at the potential first-time winners! You may find the order rather random, so let's explain this: In an attempt to estimate the importance of four relevant stats (MO, HI, TT, PRL), a weighted average was taken, with following weights:
- Mountain: 1.2
- Hills: 1.0
- TT: 0.6
- PRL: 0.3
These values may or may not be meaningful - only the race will show! But let's take a look at what this gives us (considered are riders with either Mo >= 77, or Hi >= 77, or both):
Rider
MO
HI
TT
PRL
wAVG
---
Rider
MO
HI
TT
PRL
wAVG
Monsalve
81
76
72
72
76.77
Moscon
72
77
66
70
72.26
Meintjes
80
77
71
71
76.42
Chernetskiy
71
79
66
66
72.13
Talansky
79
77
72
72
76.32
Paulus
74
77
64
64
72.06
Konig
79
75
74
74
76.26
Calmejane
71
77
67
70
72.06
Schelling
80
75
72
71
75.97
Koretzky
71
81
63
61
71.71
Bobridge
69
83
77
77
75.84
Jaramillo
77
75
60
62
71.61
Chiarello
79
75
73
71
75.77
Gebrezgabihier
70
79
66
64
71.55
Sepulveda
75
77
75
76
75.74
Betancourt
73
80
60
59
71.39
Tvetcov
77
75
74
75
75.58
Prevar
71
80
62
62
71.29
Oomen
78
74
72
75
75.26
Skujins
70
83
59
59
71.00
Ji
80
75
69
69
75.19
Venter
74
77
60
60
70.90
Kirsch
79
74
71
71
75.06
Bardet
77
74
59
59
70.81
Carapaz
80
71
72
72
74.77
Watson
65
78
68
67
69.97
Buchmann
76
80
67
67
74.68
Skjerping
70
77
62
62
69.94
Bongiorno
79
75
68
68
74.52
Anuar Aziz
67
80
61
65
69.84
Bakelants
74
83
66
65
74.48
Mudarra
68
77
62
65
69.45
Bennett
80
76
65
65
74.35
Bratashcuk
71
77
58
58
69.16
Brenes
79
73
69
69
74.16
Zaini
66
80
61
61
69.06
Schir
77
72
72
72
73.94
Vogt
62
80
66
66
68.97
Padun
78
75
65
65
73.26
McCarthy
67
81
58
58
68.90
Moazemi
73
78
69
67
73.26
Le Roux
66
77
63
63
68.68
Carthy
79
74
65
63
73.13
Caruso
69
78
57
57
68.42
Godoy
77
74
67
67
73.13
Hugentobler
68
77
58
58
68.00
Preidler
80
78
58
58
72.97
Smirnovs
68
77
56
56
67.42
Zakarin
73
77
68
68
72.84
Stuyven
63
77
58
58
66.06
Vosekalns
78
75
62
62
72.39
This gives us Monsalve on top, which is rather straightforward, as he's the sole best climber, should not lose too much time on the hills, and is a solid time trialist. Furthermore, he brings huge support in the mountains ( Carthy) and on the hills ( McCarthy), which are both in the above list, too. And let's not forget Bettiol and Min, who add even more depth.
But on the other hand, there's his manager's statement:
jph27 wrote:
We need to hope that Monsalve can win in Portugal, which is unlikely considering his season so far
Let's see if that gives him wings or rather drags him down...
Beware of Meintjes, though, last year's runner-up! He almost matches Monsalve in the mountains and in TT/PRL, and is even a tad stronger in the punchy stages - can he make that final step up and win the race? A huge downside for him is the team support, which is virtually non-existent when the road isn't flat. That's not going to be an easy task for him!
Then we move on to Talansky. The American matches Meintjes's punch and Monsalve's TT, but is a bit weaker in the mountains. At least, his support is stronger, with Hasta and Lehtinen for the mountains and Kanerva for the hills. All of them miss out on the favorites list, though.
Konig is the best time trialist so far - let's see if this factor is really as big as it was estimated for the weighted average. However, the Czech matches Talansky's mountain strength, but is a bit weaker on the hills. But hey, if you've got Bakelants, Anuar Aziz and Le Roux for the hills, you won't be complaining, will you? Brenes should be really useful on the mountain stage, too. All in all, one of the strongest team on both terrains, and hard to say who will finally be their leader. According to these stats, it should be Konig - but let stats be stats, and let the riders do the racing!
Then we have another climber with Schelling, who's stronger in this domain than Konig, and matches him on the hills, but is a tad weaker in the TTs, where he might lose valuable seconds. His team support isn't nearly as strong as Konig's, but he does at least have Schir for the mountains and Müller for the hills.
Bobridge is the first one-sided rider on the list - at least when it comes to mountains and hills! He's among the best puncheurs, but he might lose a lot of time on stage number 10. However, he's one of the best time trialists, too, which already brought him a 6th GC place last year. Can he even improve on that? For the hills, he's got a great domestique in Watson, while all other teammates are stronger than him in the mountains, so anyone could pull him. And he can still hope for the mountain stage being ridden like we've already seen plenty of them...
We won't go through the whole list now, you can read it on your own. One thing to note is that we have many Bobridge-like riders, i.e. strong on the hills, but without any realistic chance of keeping up in the mountains. We do however not have an "anti- Bobridge", i.e. a climber who would possibly lose hours on the hills. Carapaz (80/71) is probably the "worst" example - let's see what he can do.
We'll now go to the stage hunters, where you'll mainly see the riders from above, but this time sorted by the respective terrain.
Climbers
MO
---
Puncheurs
HI
SPR
Monsalve
81
Bakelants
83
72
Meintjes
80
Bobridge
83
69
Carapaz
80
Skujins
83
68
Ji
80
Koretzky
81
71
Schelling
80
McCarthy
81
65
Preidler
80
Betancourt
80
67
Bennett
80
Prevar
80
67
Chiarello
79
Anuar Aziz
80
66
Kirsch
79
Buchmann
80
65
Carthy
79
Zaini
80
65
Bongiorno
79
Vogt
80
62
Konig
79
Gebrezgabihier
79
67
Brenes
79
Chernetskiy
79
63
Talansky
79
Caruso
78
70
Vosekalns
78
Moazemi
78
65
Oomen
78
Watson
78
62
Padun
78
Preidler
78
50
Tvetcov
77
Calmejane
77
72
Godoy
77
Smirnovs
77
72
Jaramillo
77
Sepulveda
77
70
Bardet
77
Stuyven
77
66
Schir
77
Zakarin
77
65
Le Roux
77
65
Mudarra
77
64
Paulus
77
62
Bratashcuk
77
62
Meintjes
77
61
Talansky
77
59
Venter
77
58
Moscon
77
58
Skjerping
77
58
Hugentobler
77
56
Van der Lijke
76
82
Cerny
76
75
Houle
75
79
Reimer
75
77
Ackermann
75
76
Favilli
75
76
The climbers and puncheurs are the same as in the first list; however, some "punchy sprinters" (HI >= 75 and SPR >= 75) have been added, as they could well fancy their chances on the two flat rated stages (2 + 3), as well as on those stages with a very short final hill climb (4, 7, 9).
On the mountain stage, it will be a matter of riding at a high speed the longest; it's hard to imagine a real sprint up in Serra da Estrela. For the aforementioned punchy stages, however, one rider is standing out: Bakelants is among the best puncheurs, and he's the best sprinter out of these. But if the stronger puncheurs can't get away, and it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint, watch out for Van der Lijke, Houle & Co.!
Sprinters
SPR
ACC
HI
---
Fighters
FGH
HI
Van der Lijke
82
79
76
Stoltz
85
68
Salleh
80
80
59
Ignatiev
83
73
Meyer
80
76
62
Vilela
83
72
Vanoverschelde
80
75
62
Varga
83
66
Coutinho
79
80
65
Vichot
82
76
Houle
79
78
75
Smit
81
75
Bertilsson
79
77
69
Vosekalns
81
75
Lander
79
77
69
De Marchi
81
73
Pelucchi
79
77
68
Van Niekerk
80
75
Te Brake
79
76
64
Gallopin
80
74
Modolo
78
81
73
Stuyven
79
77
Harrison
78
81
67
Calmejane
78
77
Kreder
78
80
70
Smirnovs
78
77
Reimer
77
80
75
Lane
78
76
Habtom
77
78
61
Brandao
78
76
Kalaba
77
77
69
Bayly
78
74
Bar
77
76
70
Nardin
78
73
Dzamastagic
78
70
Kneisky
78
67
On the left are the ones whose hopes are on stages 2 and 3 - most of them could basically go home afterwards. As we can see in the Hills column, most of them have to hope that the flat stages aren't ridden too aggressively, as both of them have hills not far from the finish line. The punchy sprinters will of course hope for the contrary - except for Van der Lijke, who should be the strongest anyway.
On the right we see the riders who aren't afraid of attacking. Especially for those who are rather good on the hills, the KoM jersey might be a nice goal. Stoltz would be an absolute beast in flatter races, but here in Portugal the profiles may keep him from attacking. We'll see - there will surely be attacks anyway!
PRLers
PRL
RES
---
TTers
TT
RES
Chavanne
82
76
Yatsevich
80
81
Andersen
81
76
Dennis
78
75
Dennis
81
75
Goncalves
78
72
Yatsevich
80
81
Ignatiev
78
71
Stoltz
80
79
Golovash
78
69
Hamza
79
73
Predatsch
77
77
Ignatiev
78
71
Bobridge
77
74
Korsaeth
78
71
Korsaeth
77
71
Golovash
78
69
Fominykh
77
71
Meyer
78
65
Predatsch
77
77
Laengen
77
75
Bobridge
77
74
Pszczolarski
77
72
Van Aert
77
71
Finally, let's mention the favorites for the first and the last stage. One name - the usual one - stands out for the prologue: Chavanne. However, many others arent' too far away, and on only 5 kilometers, it can turn out to be quite much a lottery. The Swiss is still the top favorite for the first yellow jersey.
We do have an even clearer favorite for the last stage in Yatsevich. However, with only 55 MO he might be at risk to not even make it to this final stage - and if he does, how will he feel? Better climbers like Dennis or Goncalves may very well have a shot at the stage win, too.
Well, we've talked a lot about favorites - let's just continue this for one more category: The U25. The formula was slightly adapted to weigh mountains and hills more, as the stat differences are much bigger, too. You will find names that you see quite high up already for the GC:
Rider
MO
HI
TT
PRL
wAVG
Oomen
78
74
72
75
75.69
Padun
78
75
65
65
74.72
Carthy
79
74
65
63
74.70
Godoy
77
74
67
67
74.22
Frankiny
76
74
64
67
73.43
Dulanjana
74
72
74
75
73.31
Moscon
72
77
66
70
73.07
De Plus
75
75
63
64
73.06
Eg
75
70
73
71
72.70
Gebrezgabihier
70
79
66
64
72.56
Guerreiro
74
75
62
62
72.37
Areruya
74
74
64
64
72.33
Roman
75
73
64
58
72.09
Min
75
72
64
64
72.06
Rodrigues
74
70
70
70
71.85
Van Niekerk
71
75
65
65
71.48
Blums
72
72
67
70
71.33
Power
75
69
65
64
71.06
Vlasov
71
69
73
73
70.59
Fritsch
67
76
65
69
70.22
One name stands above all others: Oomen. He's the most balanced rider, so that's no surprise. Carthy my climb slightly faster, but might lose a lot of time in the TTs. And the question that always has to be asked: which ones of these riders can really go for the jersey, and who has to help his leaders? At least, this list raises the hopes for a tense race.
A lot of riders have already been mentioned - and you'll soon find all names, when we'll present the start list. But let's just give a special mention of the local riders first.
Of course, we can't look past the local team Berg Cycles, who have nominated not less than 5 Portuguese riders: Brandao, Coutinho, Fernandes, Rodrigues and Vilela. Their biggest hope, however, is Brazilian Chiarello, last year's 7th. At least, he speaks Portuguese.
Only three Portuguese riders have been nominated by other teams: Goncalves, who could have a shot at the stage win on the final day, Nunes, and Guerreiro.
And now, just before we jump right into the action, the long awaitet start list! We've got a well balanced field of 11 PT and 13 PCT teams - let's see which division takes the win this time!
Just two notes:
- I tried to include some information about start and finish locations. Having never been to Portugal, I may have got some things completely wrong - just tell me, and I'll try to fix ;)
- Most stages will have the results in a separate post, as the reports would be too long otherwise. I'll put them into spoilers, which I'll remove once the race completely done.
I always have a soft spot for this race after Herklotz' emergence on the big stage here, and even though we're not back this year, it appears to be good news for us, I think.
Aker, Grieg, Bennelong and Festina are here and will use up their RD advantage over us with these 11 days.
Aker and Grieg come with throwaway lineups, while Bennelong and Festina mainly rely on two puncheurs in Bobridge - obviously a big loser of the AI change - and Koretzky who won't like the presence of Bakelants, Skujins, van der Lijke and Houle.
Bongiorno could be a decent GC bet for the latter team though, but I hope our former rider won't sweep the race just to prove us wrong.
So overall, I expect our buffer on these four teams to remain large enough after this race with the PTHC race days in our favor then.
Oh, and I loved the preview!! The report length warning sounds promising regarding the report quality too.
Will be a heartbreaking race, I guess. Bobridge may only have finished 6th last year, but we had a great race here, with something like three stage wins and Bobridge delivering big points until the mountain stage. This year, he will likely already fail in the hills (as always this year) and so we may only hope for Dennis pull a result like earlier this year, when he finished 6th in P-N or T-A (I always forget, which race is hilly and mountainous in a season).
At first, I didn't want to be here, but the preview has got me hyped!
Oomen for the white jersey should be doable (will be saying that even more next year), a decent GC might even be possible.
Stagewise, Pelucchi finds himself outclassed, as to be expected, but he has always been great in those conditions. I had Cerny in mind for a few stages as well, but with the PT here, he just finds similar but way better riders present.
We're not here, but I always loved to follow this one as the mini-GT. Judging by the startlist, Warbasse might have actually done decently here due to his versatility.
The unfortunate thing is that we have gotten to the position where I kind of subconsciously root against teams in the relegation fight with me. It's not something I'm proud of, but it is the reality. So I'll just say, I hope we have an exciting race that the PT teams dominate.
Absolutely tremendous preview Fabianski!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Let's see if Stake Laengen can continue with his amazing form... Don't expect much though, but we start with a great stage for Kragh. Hopefully he can deliver.
Big race for us considering the promotion race we're in. Meintjes looks good to do well here considering he should be one of the pre race favourites, just hoping we can deliver here without super strong support. I dont think its going to be a major hindrance considering its not likely we'll be in the yellow jersey before the mountain stage so fingers crossed!
John St Ledger in Team Bunzl-Centrica and Team U25
cio93 wrote:
Aker, Grieg, Bennelong and Festina are here and will use up their RD advantage over us with these 11 days.
Aker and Grieg come with throwaway lineups, while Bennelong and Festina mainly rely on two puncheurs in Bobridge - obviously a big loser of the AI change - and Koretzky who won't like the presence of Bakelants, Skujins, van der Lijke and Houle.
Must admit I'm surprised we even get mentioned here, as we've got "throwaway lineups in all races we're in for what's left of the season, except Moscow and Tasmania
Having said that, I remember I made an effort to fit Oss here in the planner. Several of the stages should suit him very well, like many stages have this season at PT level. There he hasn't been able to pull through at the very end and position himself and sprint for a result, but I hope he's able to do that here, when the level is slightly lower compared to the typical PT races.
Lovely preview, Fabianski, and I must say your final note makes me kind of hyped to see this race unfold
Well I'd be really, really annoyed if Bennett is that far down in reality! Big big race for us, probably a good chance it's potentially our biggest left points-wise but also in terms of variance - if Houle can better Van der Lijkem Bennett finds himself in the form he showed in Japan etc. this season and maybe Venter/Areruya picks up points elsewhere it could be huge, or it could be not much and some wasted RDs for our two biggest. Not going to make any claims, predictions or requests in such a race... but the fact Bennett has shown he at least can beat every mountain guy but Monsalve and Priedler (the PT reps) this year has me hopeful - hopefully like last year the mountain stage is brutal.
Not sure Houle coming here with Bennett was the best planning decision as he might not go for the hill rated stages he should be favourite for in the mid-to-late race and only get picked as leader for FL rated ones, but if I'm wrong he could have a ball of a time duelling Van der Lijke for 5 or 6 of the stages. If he could get himself into yellow/whatever colour the jersey is for a few days at the start that would be very cool.
Great preview Fabianski even if again I hope it vastly underrates both of our leaders! And as others have said your teasing of epic length reports makes me super excited to see one of our biggest races played out so vividly - or it could be thousands and thousands of words depicting our disappointment (in which case they'd still be lovely, obviously ).
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant." [PT] Xero Racing
A big chance for our riders to do something this season. Bardet has the highest points among those on the startlist for us, with 45. The rest combined have 23! Time to step up boys.
No way we'll be anywhere in the GC fight, and if Bardet ends up where the preview mentions, I'll take that. Really really hope we join some breaks and try to go for stage wins and KOM jersey, something which we haven't done enough this season.
baseballlover312 wrote:
The unfortunate thing is that we have gotten to the position where I kind of subconsciously root against teams in the relegation fight with me. It's not something I'm proud of, but it is the reality.
Not involved here, but looks like it's gonna be a interesting and potentially very tight race. Would be good to see a nice mix of stage winners with so many contenders and different profiles.
Heine wrote:
Off, really bad planning not to send Guldhammer here Nothing to do about that now. Gotta hope Buchmann and Preidler have good races
I'm also dissapointed not to see Guldhammer here because he'll likely cause me troubles elsewhere
Most stages will have the results in a separate post, as the reports would be too long otherwise. I'll put them into spoilers, which I'll remove once the race completely done.
Youre crazy
Startlist is a bit tougher than i hoped. Particularly on the hills where quite some competition for Skujins exists. I struggle to come up with realistoc expectations as my points haul from this race seems to be rather unpredictable. In theory, this should be a strong race for me with Skujins, Vosekalns and Moazemi covering lots of different outcomes.
Im quite sad that i couldnt send Lopez here due to XP reasons. He could deliver on a course like this.
On paper, the combination of Koretzky and Bongiorno should usually give us some good results, and with a breakaway specialist like Aidan van Niekerk probably something there too, but knowing the game it's not going to happen. Koretzky will lose a lot of time, and eventually he will attack to get a stagewin or stagepodium but finish somewhere in the region of 30-40 and Bongiorno will probably assist him being around that spot too...
We're stage hunting here, and we have some strong fighters present that could do things from a breakaway. It's a long race, so hopefully we'll get two or are three chances at that. Hoping Gallopin can sneak his way to a decent GC result as well, like he's quietly done several times already this season.
jandal7 wrote:
even if again I hope it vastly underrates both of our leaders!
You're right that Bennett is quite far down, given that he's 80 Mo, but then look at Preidler
Honestly, I just like to play with numbers. Maybe Mo should have got more weight, then the puncheurs would be further down. Maybe the hills were more important than expected, which would give Bobridge & Co. a boost. Or the final TT after 10 hard days of racing could lead to huge time gaps, in which case Konig, Bobridge or Sepulveda might be even further up - it was just a wild guess pre-race, let's find out how well it reflects reality
Firstly, thank you for a fantastic preview Fabianski! I look forward to reading the reports, even if they're likely to make me pull my hair out in frustration
This is a race that has always been good to us in the past, which led to me making it our win goal this season. Originally I had planned to send Yates here after finishing 3rd and 4th here in the past two seasons, but I worried that one of the big guns would be here, so I sent Monsalve instead.
Normally that would seem like a stroke of genius looking at this field, but then Monsalve has been useless all season so far. Neither I nor anyone else I've talked to can understand why, but it doesn't fill me with confidence heading into what is potentially our most important race of the season.
We realistically need Monsalve to win, or at the very least be on the podium and pick up plenty of points from stage finishes, in order to give us a chance of safety. Carthy is a potential top 10 finisher in this field, which helps, and McCarthy and Lander should be able to pick up a few solid stage results. But that will all be for nothing if Monsalve has another horror show.
Quite a few of the hilly stages are likely to rely on the Mountain stat, which should play into our hands, and the closing TT being quite up and down should hopefully help Monsalve as well. If it all goes to plan, it'll come down to whether the best climber in the field can win the Mountain stage. You'd hope so, but his form so far this season and the amount of descending is enough to make me slightly concerned
Volta a Portugal 
Nothing to do about that now. Gotta hope Buchmann and Preidler have good races
