Welcome to Germany, or more precisely to the Free State of Bavaria, where we'll see PCT, CT and even Amateur riders battling for the crown in this C1 stage race in the upcoming four days!
This race is pretty much unique in the calendar, as it features the incredible amount of 75 ITT kilometers, with 50 on the first and 25 on the last day. This means that the riders will be on their own for almost 20% of the total race distance!
But even though the time trial stages are mostly flat, the GC won't come for free for the pure TT specialists, as we'll have a mountain-top finish on stage 3 - which could even eliminate some of the strongest time trialists from the race!
And in between, there's the flat stage 2, attracting even a few sprinters. But they probably won't be in for more than this stage win, as the green jersey seems to be reserved for a TT powerhorse - or a climber with more than just decent TT skills.
Before we get to the gladiators participating in this (hopefully) spectacular, unique race, let's just take a look at these profiles:
What is already sure is that we're going to get a new winner this year, as no former champion is present here in Bavaria. But last year's edition - with roughly ITT kilometers more - still gives us a vague idea about what it takes to win here. It actually took a great performance by Martin Keizer to beat TT specialist Jérôme Coppel - who was the only one actually challenge the good climbers.
Still, it is clear that being a great climber alone will definitely not be enough, as the amount of time to gain on this sole mountain top finish is by far inferior to what can be lost in the two time trials. So let's first take a look at those who can do both really well:
1st-tier Hybrids
MO
TT
RES
Tenorio
84
80
76
Eastman
81
77
75
Reis
81
76
76
Shikai
81
76
76
Abal
80
76
76
Choi
80
75
76
Nepomnyachsniy
77
77
75
Ortega
76
75
74
Ivars
75
77
74
2nd-tier Hybrids
MO
TT
RES
2nd-tier Hybrids
MO
TT
RES
Ratiy
80
74
73
Figueiredo
76
72
75
Krasnoperov
80
73
69
Grigrian
76
72
68
Roglic
80
72
76
Kratochvila
76
70
68
Carapaz
80
72
76
Domagalski
75
74
69
Schelling
80
72
76
Bjelkmark
75
73
73
Duarte
79
74
75
Pavlic
75
72
73
Warbasse
78
74
73
Jones
75
71
71
Nibali
78
73
71
Matte
75
71
71
Diaz
78
72
73
Izagirre
74
77
72
Borisavljevic
77
74
74
Barbio
74
75
73
Schir
77
72
72
Goncalves
73
78
72
Bartl
77
71
74
Rolland
73
76
69
Reguigui
76
73
69
Abreu
73
75
71
As there are really many of those hybrids, we split the list into 1st- and 2nd-tier riders. The 1st-tier riders are those who have a value of at least 75 in both main stats - and it seems to be very likely that the winner will come from this shortlist.
The 2nd-tier hybrids are those who have at least 75 in one and at least 70 in the other main stat.
Well, actually, we would need to make another list, containing only one rider - the Tenorio-list! He is easily the best climber, and the second best TT specialist, so he really is the huge favorite for this race. Furthermore, he brings very good mountain support with Nazaret.
Behind the Spaniard, we would expect a really close race for 2nd, featuring CT individual leader Eastman (4th last year), Reis, last year's 3rd Shikai, Abal and Choi (11th last year). All of these are very close considering both climbing and TTing - be prepared for some hot duels!
The remaining riders in the 1st-tier list could actually go to the 2nd-tier list, as they're clearly weaker climbers. But at least Nepomnyachsniy and Ivars might well win some seconds in the TTs, whereas Ortega really barely makes it on this list.
We won't name all of the 2nd-tier hybrids - but given especially their climbing abilities, we're definitely set for a great day of racing on stage 3! And we really shouldn't rule them out, but with the time they'll lose on these 75 ITT kilometers, it seems hard to imagine having one of them winning the GC.
It will be interesting to see how much time the more TT focused riders - e.g. Izagirre (who of course is a great puncheur, but not the greatest climber) or Goncalves - can gain on the best climbers - if they have a great day on stage 3, they could be absolutely in the fight for the overall podium!
Then we have the - let's say - "specialists", i.e. the pure climbers (<70 TT) and time trialists (<70 MO):
Climbers
MO
TT
RES
TTers
MO
TT
RES
Garby
79
68
76
Kittel
55
81
70
Nazaret
79
64
77
Dillier
51
80
77
Pomoshnikov
79
64
76
Robert
57
79
70
Stancu
78
66
74
Balloni
60
78
71
Giogieri
78
66
74
Olman
52
78
66
Padun
78
65
73
Hussein
68
77
69
Stetina
78
64
74
Pokälä
64
77
73
Iino
77
68
72
Eaton
62
77
76
Hiratsuka
77
63
74
Steensen
59
77
73
Solis
77
57
75
Cheung
59
77
74
Rekita
56
77
71
Verona
54
77
75
Kovalev
53
77
59
Gretsch
51
77
72
Christensen
59
76
72
Cheyne
58
76
75
Grabovski
69
75
70
Kreuziger
67
75
70
Betilson
58
75
72
From the rather short list of climbers, we can clearly see that most of the mountain goats - actually all of them having an 80+ mountain stat - are good TTers as well. Maybe some of those named here may fight for the stage win on the third day, but it's hard to see them get a top GC result.
The same holds for the right column, the TT specialists. At least, these have got two chances for a stage win - if they survive day number three! With most of them having a mountain stat of even below 60, this could be a real danger - or at least makes it clear they probably can't have any GC ambitions. Their big hope may be too look at Coppel's performance last year, finishing runner-up despite a mountain stat of only 65...
We have mostly ignored them for now, but let's still talk about those who target the second stage: The sprinters.
Sprinters
FL
SPR
ACC
Kupfernagel
74
80
80
Lavoine
73
80
78
Ulanowski
73
80
77
Reinhardt
71
79
84
Krieger
71
79
79
Vanderaerden
72
79
75
Canelon
77
78
83
Ranneries
70
78
82
Vaquera
71
78
80
Jones
72
78
78
Boev
72
78
78
Tewelde
74
78
77
Kamberaj
74
77
76
Jaser
73
77
75
Vinther
74
77
74
Losch
71
76
77
Reza
71
76
75
Pozdnyakov
72
75
74
Geschke
70
75
74
Torckler
71
75
73
The Top 3 - Kupfernagel, Lavoine and Ulanowski - might be the favorites, given that they have the highest top speed. Of these, Lavoine should have the best leadout in Tewelde.
But watch out for Reinhardt with his great acceleration as well - and Canelon is just a beast on the flat AND accelerates lightning fast! Furthermore, three of his team mates are in this list as well - what could be their strategy on day two?
Let's take a look as well at the young riders:
Young riders
MO
TT
RES
Padun
78
65
73
Borisavljevic
77
74
74
Shirota
75
58
68
Barta
74
71
72
Brozyna
74
70
69
Rodrigues
74
70
72
Rekita
56
77
71
Cosnefroy
68
74
77
If we only had a mountain stage, Padun would probably be the favorite - but here it definitely has to be Borisavljevic, given his clear superiority in the TTs against the Ukranian. Only Rekita or Cosnefroy could match him in the TTs - could at least the latter challenge the climbers for a U25 podium?
And finally, we should mention the local riders, as riding on their home territory may very well give them a boost!
We'll see 11 Germans racing tomorrow, one of them being among the top TT contenders: Kittel will target at least one stage win, and Gretsch could get a great result as well.
Furthermore, Kupfernagel is on top of the sprinters' list, whereas his teammate Bartl will be an important mountain domestique for his leader Roglic. Krieger and Reinhardt are targetting stage 2 as well, while Pfingsten, Kämna, Geschke, Grosser and Brockhoff will mainly be on helper duties. But at least, the fans have a good choice of locals to cheer for!
That's all that needs to be said, before we jump right into the action! Just one last thing - the startlist!
As we already mentioned, we have a mix of PCT (11 teams), CT (6) and Amateur (3) teams - let's see if the "small" teams can hurt the "big" ones once again!
Sorry for the missing Amateur teams' flags - just didn't know which country they're racing for, so I couldn't paste the right ones...
Oof, what in the world is Tenorio doing here... Otherwise this would have looked like a very nice spot for Eastman to continue his dominance. Well we can all pretend we are fighting for a win, at least for like a day. Then go with the reality its a fight for 2nd.
Looks like a good chance for points. Reis knows how to podium here and is well defended by a solid squad. Realistically I agree with the 2nd to 6th assessment. After Tenorio it is a very open contest.
Thanks for such and extensive and thorough preview Fabianski. Looking forward to the reports!!
As always, we don't have any favorites here. That being said, we have a chance to compete, and we need all the points we can get.
This type of race should suit Warbasse. He's done quite well this year too. Of course, it suits every other leader here even better though, so I'm not too hopeful. It would be great of some hill stat was involved in stage 3, since a lot of the second tier pure stage racer types are not as versatile that way as Larry is.
Garby is here too, which might have been a bad idea. My thought was that with the GC already favoring time trialing heavily after the first stage, it shouldn't really cause any confusion as to my GC leader. And as one of the stronger climbers, he could be of service. But if Garby wants to attack and try for a stage win in the mountains, I'm happy to see it.
We've also got Steensen for the TT's and Ranneries for the sprint. Steensen has been very poor this year, but I guess there's still a chance that he gets good daily form for one of the TT's. Ranneries on the other hand has been surprisingly serviceable in his few opportunities this year, but I'm not counting on anything from him. If he could score a single point on stage 2, I'd be very happy.
Thank you for the great preview Fabianski!
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Kentaurus wrote:
Oof, what in the world is Tenorio doing here...
... to win. The second to last race for him before ending his season at the Kenya Mountain Classic. Hopefully this will be a simple cycle through the park like everyone thinks it will be.
I don't expect much from this race, due to the TT kms our chances of a good result will be slim.
I still hope that Kupfernagel can fight for victory in the second stage. Roglic should be able to fight for a place in the top 15.
Well hopefully Borisavljevic takes the Youth classification and he, alongside Nibali, show themselves at the right end of the Final GC standings. Won't be easy in a field like this. Good TT kilometres for both as well as for Robert!
Good first stage for Eastman, right in line with where he needs to be to ensure a podium from this race, and at least pretend to challenge for the overall.
Not a terrible ride from Warbasse I guess. I never feel good having a GC rider go early in an opening TT, and that proved correct I think. Steensen as well was about as useless as I figured.
Hopefully Ranneries can sprint tomorrow.
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy
Nice win by Kittel. Tenorio also in good position to take the win already. I'm very happy with Goncalves here. 2nd is above what I expected, now I just hope the team treats him as a leader and he doesn't lose too much time on the mountain stage. He should be able to pull of a top 5-10.
As expected stage for Desigual. Tenorio in a good spot and Eaton with a solid showing. Was hoping better for Verona but looks like he got onto the course at a bad time. Now time to stay out of trouble on Stage 2.
Bayern Rundfahrt 
The second to last race for him before ending his season at the Kenya Mountain Classic. Hopefully this will be a simple cycle through the park like everyone thinks it will be.
