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Vuelta al País Vasco Discussion
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-01-2020 08:55
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 Vuelta al País Vasco
PTHC: 7/3-12/3, 6 stages total 661.6 km
Welcome to the 13th edition of Vuelta al País Vasco, also known as Euskal Herriko Itzulia. Continuously on the MG calender since 2007. Most wins claimed by Yuri Trofimov his latest win was 2016 at the time riding for Tinkoff Sport Academy (today Team Tinkoff) to become 3 time winner.  Yuri Trofimov will race again this year but the 35 years old veteran today off course not as likely to get the 4th win, as he was in his prime years.
Last year’s winner  Jack Bobridge with be here again to attempt a 2nd win, 2017 winner Edvald Boasson Hagen won’t be here, but 2015 winner  Tejay Van Garderen and 2013 winner  Robert Gesink will both attend, Robert Gesink with the possibility to join the ranks of 3 time winners, he also won in 2012
The 2019 profiles is more or less the same as we saw last year, with a medium long TTT, a medium long IT, and four hilly stages one of those (stage 6) seemingly a semi-mountain profile, where some pure climbing will be important, also stage 3 quite heavy on the amount of uphill km, but not as close to the finish line.
Local spectators will have surprisingly few Spanish riders to cheer for, as we only got a single one in the race, Andorra Cycling Project’s  Barrio, a fine puncher but a very limited tempo rider.
So what will it take to win this race, or rather not to lose?
1. A first class puncher not losing time on the hilly stages
2. A good ITT rider not losing too much on the quite difficult time trial
3. A good team able not to lose too much in the TTT
4. And also some climbing ability, hard to say how much.
5 And as it always is physical skill as acceleration and resistance will help.
First stage first, who are the top TTT teams, and this is my prediction:
| Generali | 79 | | Aegon - Lavazza | 78 | | SPAR - Siam Cement | 78 | | Team Puma - SAP | 78 | | Air France - KLM | 78 | | Bennelong - Mitchelton | 77 | | Gazelle | 77 | | Andorra Cycling Project | 76 | | Team Popo4Ever p/b Nemiroff | 75 | | ENI - MOL | 75 | | Duolingo | 75 | | Carrefour - ESPN | 75 | | Rakuten Pro Cycling | 75 | | Kraftwerk Man Machine | 75 | | Delvaux | 74 | | Swisslion Cycling Team | 73 | | Philips | 73 | | Lierse SK - Pizza Ullo PCTeam | 72 | | Kulczyk - Alitalia | 71 | | Isostar - LimeBike | 71 | | Evonik - ELKO | 71 | | T-Mobile | 70 | | Moser - Sygic | 69 | | Team Europcar | 67 |
In some situations what may be the race leader is in risk of not being one of the riders amongst the best 5 TT riders from the team and may lose additional time, but that rick is not included in my estimate as that would be too complicated.
We see that about 8 teams are within reach of a good TTT, 7-9 teams may well lose devastation time already on the first day, the others not likely to podium but not likely to lose too much either.
Then let’s take a look at the ITT, sort of hilly to say the least, so we look for the best TT riders with a punch.
| TT | H | Res | Combo | | TT | H | Res | Combo |  Coppel | 82 | 75 | 77 | 80 |  Schädlich | 80 | 64 | 71 | 76 | | Gesink | 79 | 80 | 79 | 79 | Dees | 77 | 72 | 76 | 76 | | Bobridge | 77 | 83 | 74 | 78 |  Dumoulin | 78 | 68 | 76 | 76 | | Paillot | 80 | 71 | 74 | 78 |  Van Winden | 80 | 63 | 70 | 76 | | Dennis | 78 | 75 | 75 | 77 | Kung | 77 | 73 | 72 | 76 |  Sütterlin | 80 | 65 | 77 | 77 |  Bibby | 76 | 75 | 73 | 76 | | Brändle | 79 | 71 | 73 | 77 | Ghyselinck | 77 | 68 | 77 | 75 | | Kangert | 77 | 77 | 75 | 77 | Leung | 78 | 64 | 77 | 75 | | Oliveira | 78 | 73 | 75 | 77 | Politt | 78 | 66 | 73 | 75 | | Cornu | 79 | 70 | 73 | 77 |  Kwok | 79 | 62 | 73 | 75 | | Viviani | 79 | 66 | 77 | 76 | Rosskopf | 76 | 75 | 71 | 75 |  Ignatiev | 78 | 73 | 71 | 76 | Boaro | 77 | 71 | 71 | 75 |
Then the four Hilly stages, here we look for top punchers with some acceleration and resistance and a bit of climbing skill.
| Rider | H | A | Res | M | Combo | Rider | H | A | Res | M | Combo | | Lutsenko | 83 | 81 | 73 | 73 | 83 |  Waeytens | 80 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 79 | | Bobridge | 83 | 80 | 74 | 69 | 83 |  Calmejane | 77 | 76 | 76 | 71 | 79 |  Skujins | 83 | 76 | 77 | 70 | 83 |  Prevar | 80 | 73 | 70 | 71 | 79 |  Kinoshita | 82 | 77 | 77 | 72 | 82 |  Barbin | 78 | 76 | 73 | 68 | 79 | | Van Garderen | 82 | 79 | 75 | 72 | 82 | Caruso | 78 | 77 | 71 | 69 | 79 |  Sagan | 83 | 76 | 74 | 74 | 82 | Quevedo | 78 | 75 | 72 | 71 | 79 | | De Bie | 83 | 75 | 76 | 71 | 82 | Duchesne | 77 | 79 | 72 | 67 | 79 |  Mohoric | 83 | 77 | 72 | 71 | 82 | Trofimov | 79 | 70 | 72 | 74 | 79 |  Beltran | 81 | 76 | 72 | 79 | 81 | Moazemi | 78 | 73 | 72 | 73 | 79 | | Gesink | 80 | 67 | 79 | 82 | 81 |  Gebrezgabihier | 79 | 69 | 74 | 70 | 78 | | Di Maggio | 82 | 75 | 68 | 65 | 80 | Kangert | 77 | 72 | 75 | 75 | 78 | | Vakoc | 80 | 74 | 71 | 71 | 80 | Moscon | 77 | 71 | 76 | 72 | 78 |
So now we have estimates of the different types of stages, time to give a wild guess of how this might all work out in the final CG, won’t go through it in the traditional rider by rider profile, instead a list attempting to combine what we have already found.
List of race favorites.
| Rider | HI | ITT | TTT | Combo | Rider | HI | ITT | TTT | Combo | | Bobridge | 83 | 78 | 77 | 80 | Dees | 74 | 76 | 79 | 76 | | Gesink | 81 | 79 | 79 | 80 | Sagan | 82 | 71 | 69 | 76 | | De Bie | 82 | 74 | 78 | 79 | Beltran | 81 | 69 | 73 | 76 | | Lutsenko | 83 | 71 | 78 | 78 | Ignatiev | 76 | 76 | 74 | 76 | | Kangert | 78 | 77 | 77 | 78 | Paillot | 73 | 78 | 78 | 76 | | Coppel | 77 | 80 | 75 | 78 | Dyball | 75 | 74 | 77 | 76 | | Kinoshita | 82 | 70 | 75 | 77 | Konrad | 77 | 72 | 77 | 76 | | Dennis | 76 | 77 | 77 | 77 | Roe | 75 | 74 | 77 | 75 | | Gidich | 78 | 74 | 78 | 77 | Watson | 78 | 70 | 77 | 75 | | Rosskopf | 76 | 75 | 79 | 76 | Duchesne | 79 | 70 | 75 | 75 | | Bibby | 77 | 76 | 77 | 76 | Mohoric | 82 | 68 | 71 | 75 | | Trofimov | 79 | 74 | 75 | 76 | Salinas | 76 | 72 | 78 | 75 | | Van Garderen | 82 | 72 | 70 | 76 | Bevin | 74 | 74 | 78 | 75 | | Brown | 76 | 75 | 79 | 76 | Canty | 74 | 74 | 77 | 75 | | Kung | 75 | 76 | 79 | 76 | Senni | 77 | 74 | 72 | 75 | | Oliveira | 76 | 77 | 75 | 76 | Vasyliv | 75 | 72 | 78 | 75 | | Oliveira | 76 | 77 | 75 | 76 | Gonzalez Cortes | 76 | 74 | 75 | 75 | | Boom | 75 | 75 | 78 | 76 | Vakoc | 80 | 71 | 71 | 75 | | Gallopin | 77 | 75 | 74 | 76 | Gebrezgabihier | 78 | 69 | 75 | 75 | | Brändle | 74 | 77 | 78 | 76 | Sirironnachai | 78 | 68 | 78 | 75 |
Startlist
| De Bie | Trofimov | Flügel | Lutsenko | | Paillot | Cornu | Schädlich | Brändle | | Zardini | Goh | Denz | Van Winden | | Eiking | Trillini | Scheit | Sirironnachai | | Dumoulin | Veilleux | Gonzalez Cortes | Gidich | | Boom | Oliveira | Shushemoin | Leung | | van der Hugenhaben | Bagioli | Cahyadi | Boonratanathanakorn | | Frison | Razumov | van Zyl | Delgerbayar | | Kwok | Matte | Eyob | Christodoulos | | Salinas | Di Maggio | Vakoc | Setiawa | | Edet | Gebrezgabihier | Barbin | Beltran | | Bernaudeau | Paulus | Grippo | Kasa | | Vanendert | Pons | Marczynski | Scotson | | Andersen | Balloni | Brozyna | Martinez | | Bouet | Hussein | Waeytens | Groselj | | Seigle | Domagalski | Senni | Penko | | Dowsett | Skujins | Cerny | Caruso | | Zordan | Smirnovs | Moscon | Zaini | | Kireva | Moazemi | Dall'Oste | Modolo | | Ropero | Bekmanis | Biermans | Calmejane | | Cabanas | Sakalou | Van Aert | Henao | | Laizer | Riesebeek | Sajnok | Honkisz | | Mottin | Becis | Sagan | Zielinski | | Barrio | Belgasem | Boros | Mahdar | | Bobridge | Kangert | Marycz | Prevar | | Dennis | Bibby | Schlegel | Bratashcuk | | Dyball | Konrad | Polnicky | Laas | | Roe | Boaro | Hosek | Golovash | | Watson | Janse van Rensburg | McKenna | Orlov | | Canty | Powless | Kolar | Pszczolarski | | Wohler | Fejes |  Palini | Young | | Phelan | De Gendt | Le Gac | Kochetkov | | Crncevic | Gesink | Grossschartner | Sütterlin | | Duchesne | Oliveira | Lienhard | Vasyliv | | Coppel | Viviani | Van Zandbeek | Bevin | | Quevedo | Brown | Ligthart | Hadi | | Ben Nasser | Kung | Boudat | Stüssi | | Li | Dees | Allegaert | Politt | | Klemme | Rosskopf | Salcone | Ganna | | Ignatiev | Ghyselinck | Rolland | Weinstein | | Gallopin | Mohoric | Cheung | Van Garderen | | Hermans | Pernsteiner | Nonaka | Favilli | | Vendrame | Gilanipoor | Kinoshita | Wohrer | | Daniel | Kalaba | Froome | Sanogo | | Hofstede | Roman | Mutsumine | Restrepo | | Christensen | Vermote | Zhao | Kanepejs | | Zariff | Tarvis | | Kenyeres | | Katrasnik | | Goncalves |
Edited by Tamijo on 04-01-2020 10:47
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 04-01-2020 09:32
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This race suits our team quite well. Hope that Kangert and Bibby can get a nice spot in GC.
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 04-01-2020 09:44
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Thanks for the diligent preview Tamijo. There's just the tiny mistake that this is actually Vuelta al Pais Vasco instead of Catalunya 
We don't have the strongest of teams here, but breakaways and a possible top10 with Trofimov could be reasonable boals for us.
With such a myriad of factors weighing in this should be a interesting contest. Good luck everyone!
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| jandal7 |
Posted on 04-01-2020 10:04
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I wish we could redo Catalunya
24/02/21 - kandesbunzler said “I don't drink famous people."
15/08/22 - SotD said "Your [jandal's] humour is overrated"
11/06/24 - knockout said "Winning is fine I guess. Truth be told this felt completely unimportant."
[PT]  Xero Racing
5x  x5
1x  x1
2x  x2
2x  x2 |
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 04-01-2020 10:26
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Posts: 4368
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Excpecting nothing here, just a few attacks maybe...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-01-2020 10:48
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Gustavovskiy wrote:
Thanks for the diligent preview Tamijo. There's just the tiny mistake that this is actually Vuelta al Pais Vasco instead of Catalunya
We don't have the strongest of teams here, but breakaways and a possible top10 with Trofimov could be reasonable boals for us.
With such a myriad of factors weighing in this should be a interesting contest. Good luck everyone!
Copy/Paste saves time, but you have to be careful 
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| SotD |
Posted on 04-01-2020 10:59
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How are these “combo”-stats calculated? I can’t seem to find any sense in them.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-01-2020 11:18
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It is off course something like x*2 + y*1,5 + Z*,9 ............ but I haven't kept the formula's so just take it for what it is: A PREVIEW to give a general idea of what riders can be expected to preform well in the different situations.
Can't even remember if I took into account how strong MO is this season.
Edited by Tamijo on 04-01-2020 11:27
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-01-2020 11:43
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Senni's stats seem to be listed wrong in the preview, but he was the best guy in the previous hilly stage race as well, so I wouldn't object against him repeating his result. Waeytens + attacks should do the rest.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 07-12-2025 21:35
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| SotD |
Posted on 04-01-2020 11:52
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Tamijo wrote:
It is off course something like x*2 + y*1,5 + Z*,9 ............ but I haven't kept the formula's so just take it for what it is: A PREVIEW to give a general idea of what riders can be expected to preform well in the different situations.
Can't even remember if I took into account how strong MO is this season.
It wasn’t meant as a critique...
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-01-2020 12:14
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SotD wrote:
Tamijo wrote:
It is off course something like x*2 + y*1,5 + Z*,9 ............ but I haven't kept the formula's so just take it for what it is: A PREVIEW to give a general idea of what riders can be expected to preform well in the different situations.
Can't even remember if I took into account how strong MO is this season.
It wasn’t meant as a critique...
No no I understand you just can't find a line - neither can I now, its impossible to guess. The number of possibilities is endless especially after it is rounded.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-01-2020 12:22
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Ollfardh wrote:
Senni's stats seem to be listed wrong in the preview, but he was the best guy in the previous hilly stage race as well, so I wouldn't object against him repeating his result. Waeytens + attacks should do the rest.
You realize "List of race favorites" contain the "combo" stats not the official Hill stats TT stats.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-01-2020 12:28
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Tamijo wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Senni's stats seem to be listed wrong in the preview, but he was the best guy in the previous hilly stage race as well, so I wouldn't object against him repeating his result. Waeytens + attacks should do the rest.
You realize List of Favorite contain "combo" stats not the official Hill stats TT stats.
I do now 
Still interesting how Senni makes the list but Waeytens doesn't.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-01-2020 12:40
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Ollfardh wrote:
Tamijo wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Senni's stats seem to be listed wrong in the preview, but he was the best guy in the previous hilly stage race as well, so I wouldn't object against him repeating his result. Waeytens + attacks should do the rest.
You realize List of Favorite contain "combo" stats not the official Hill stats TT stats.
I do now
Still interesting how Senni makes the list but Waeytens doesn't.
Havent got time to look at it now, I am a little behind with Circulo de Juarez - must be some explanation.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-01-2020 12:57
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Tamijo wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Tamijo wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Senni's stats seem to be listed wrong in the preview, but he was the best guy in the previous hilly stage race as well, so I wouldn't object against him repeating his result. Waeytens + attacks should do the rest.
You realize List of Favorite contain "combo" stats not the official Hill stats TT stats.
I do now
Still interesting how Senni makes the list but Waeytens doesn't.
Havent got time to look at it now, I am a little behind with Circulo de Juarez - must be some explanation.
Hehe, don't worry about it, I never liked Waeytens anyway 
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 04-01-2020 13:18
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Right after Barbados, another third band choice race that will see us struggle to keep our pprd up.
However, apart from bringing Vasyliv to lead the team replacing Cavagna, this is the exact lineup that finished a brilliant third in the Copenhagen TTT, so I hope we attack the TTT. If we end it second to Generali, we'd 1-2-3 the U25 on the stage as well for extra points and bragging rights.
Then, Vasyliv's success very much depends on how climber-friendly the stages are ridden, ideally right on the fine line where it's hard enough early for 77mo to matter, but not hard enough to give the edge back to the better puncheurs before the final climbs already with splits and such. It's impossible to say for now what GC position we might realistically set as a goal here.
Another potential points income is the KoM hunt, we have Stüssi, Hadi and Bevin as potential attackers who can Top 3 over the top from a break. The same three riders are also perfectly equipped to ride consistently to a Top 50 or above, with decent mo+hil+tt.
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| Yellow Jersey |
Posted on 04-01-2020 13:42
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I've seen Dowsett, I expect nothing if form isn't there. Would be happy with a stage win TT's are too important and we're not getting anything from them.
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 04-01-2020 14:40
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Ollfardh wrote:
Tamijo wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Tamijo wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Senni's stats seem to be listed wrong in the preview, but he was the best guy in the previous hilly stage race as well, so I wouldn't object against him repeating his result. Waeytens + attacks should do the rest.
You realize List of Favorite contain "combo" stats not the official Hill stats TT stats.
I do now
Still interesting how Senni makes the list but Waeytens doesn't.
Havent got time to look at it now, I am a little behind with Circulo de Juarez - must be some explanation.
Hehe, don't worry about it, I never liked Waeytens anyway
| M | H | TT | S | Rs | Rc | A | | Senni | 77 | 73 | 74 | 76 | 79 | 76 | 72 | | Waeytens | 71 | 80 | 65 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 73 | | | | | | | | | | 6 | -7 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
Taking everything into the formulars not too hard to imagine that you may end up with Senni as leader. even if you got H as x4 here it is not enough.
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| redordead |
Posted on 04-01-2020 15:33
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Don't like the fact that this race starts with a TTT. Tour of Slovenia started the same and it turned all the strong puncheurs that lost time into brainless baroudeurs 
Beltran might be able to squeeze out a top 10, but for that the above stated can't happen and his strong mtn stat needs to come into play, which hasn't happened yet this season.
This could easily turn into a 0 pts race as well.
"I am a cyclist, I may not be the best, but that is what I strive to be. I may never get there, but I will never quit trying." - Tadej Pogačar
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 04-01-2020 16:12
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Tamijo wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Tamijo wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Tamijo wrote:
Ollfardh wrote:
Senni's stats seem to be listed wrong in the preview, but he was the best guy in the previous hilly stage race as well, so I wouldn't object against him repeating his result. Waeytens + attacks should do the rest.
You realize List of Favorite contain "combo" stats not the official Hill stats TT stats.
I do now
Still interesting how Senni makes the list but Waeytens doesn't.
Havent got time to look at it now, I am a little behind with Circulo de Juarez - must be some explanation.
Hehe, don't worry about it, I never liked Waeytens anyway
| M | H | TT | S | Rs | Rc | A | | Senni | 77 | 73 | 74 | 76 | 79 | 76 | 72 | | Waeytens | 71 | 80 | 65 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 73 | | | | | | | | | | 6 | -7 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
Taking everything into the formulars not too hard to imagine that you may end up with Senni as leader. even if you got H as x4 here it is not enough.
Thanks for the trouble, with the increased importance of the MO stat I guess Senni might be the better option anyway.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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