Welcome to Italy, where the PT field is arriving tonight to be ready for tomorrow's departure of the 2019 Tirreno - Adriatico! As every year, the race will be held between the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic seas. With a prologue and two flat, hilly and mountainous stages each, this year's parcours provides good opportunities for many types of riders - but it will take a punchy climber, or a climbing puncheur, to take home the GC.
But let's have a look at the detailed profiles:
You may notice that we'll have three stages in a row with 200km and more - meaning it will likely take great stamina (and recovery) as well to have a chance of winning this race. Daniel Martin, 2015 winner, is the only former champion taking part in this race. Given this year's line-ups, he must probably be considered to be an outsider - but let's have a look at who's actually here:
Riders are sorted by the average of Mo, Hi, Sta and Prl, with Mo and Hi counting double. I tried to create a mix of the best climbers and puncheurs, so some of your personal favorites might be missing.
Rider
Mo
Hi
Sta
Res
Rec
Acc
Prl
Spilak
84
81
79
80
77
73
76
Taaramäe
85
78
79
80
79
76
79
Gesink
82
80
77
79
79
67
79
Herklotz
84
77
79
80
78
76
78
Morton
84
76
79
78
78
67
73
Lecuisinier
83
75
78
80
79
74
77
Dombrowski
84
75
80
78
78
75
71
Denifl
84
76
75
71
76
65
72
Wellens
81
75
79
80
76
68
72
Guldhammer
81
77
74
75
74
76
71
Martin
81
76
76
77
76
75
70
Quintana
82
74
77
76
76
66
71
Hirt
81
74
77
79
79
76
73
Lopez
78
79
74
73
73
76
71
Formolo
79
77
76
76
74
71
69
Velits
81
74
72
71
71
65
73
Berhane
81
75
77
74
73
68
65
Sepulveda
75
77
74
73
71
73
76
Ji
80
75
73
69
73
65
69
Preidler
80
78
71
77
76
69
58
Poljanski
77
77
70
70
76
71
67
Boily
76
78
72
72
69
74
61
Pernsteiner
75
77
73
71
72
72
64
Betancourt
73
80
72
71
64
74
59
Spilak brings the best combo of mountain and hill capabilities, supported by very good stamina and a decent prologue. Plus, his team has broug strong support for both mountains and hills, e.g. in Pernsteiner and Frankiny.
Taaramäe is a favorite in virtually every race he rides, including this one. He's the strongest climber on the start list, and could gain some decisive seconds in the prologue. He isn't afraid of the hills, either, where his acceleration could make up for the slightly lower base speed compared to Spilak. He's got Aasvold as a good hybrid supporter by his side, as well as Lunke for the mountains.
Gesink almost matches Spilak's profile, being just a tad weaker on both mountains and hills, but potentially slightly faster in the prologue. He just has to hope his rather weak acceleration won't hurt him too much. He's got some good support in the mountains as well, e.g. in Latour or Sequera, but there might be some weaknesses for the hilly profiles.
Herklotz obviously has to be named as well, as he wins more or less every race he rides. He's one of the best climbers, with some minor weaknesses on the hills, though. But even there, his acceleration could get him some great results. Team-wise, he can surely count on Vasyliv for the mountains, but his team may find it more difficult to control the hilly stages.
Whereas these four riders probably are the top favorites, Morton shouldn't be far away. Matching Herklotz on the long climbs, he's even a tad weaker on the hills, though, and he might lose some important seconds in the prologue already. And as for Gesink, his low acceleration may cost him some bonus seconds. Team-wise, he'll certainly not be complaining, as he has got a strong climbing squad by his side, led by Smith. Again, the hills support could be stronger.
Lecuisinier then has even more weaknesses in the hilly stages, but his great acceleration may partially make up for this. He could get a nice start with a good prologue - and who knows what's possible then. However, his drawback is that he doesn't have a lot of support - it's almost just Cataldo who could help him when the roads are going upwards. That might not be enough.
Dombrowski and Denifl then are the last great climbers, but as they're being listed only now, they must have some weaknesses. Indeed, both aren't very strong on the hills, and both may lose some time in the prologue. Denifl in addition has a rather low stamina compared to the others - some stages may seem endless to him.
We then can make a group of rather similar riders then, containing Wellens, Guldhammer, Martin, Quintana and Hirt. All are still very good climbers, but lack some speed in either hills, or prologue, or both.
Let's just mention Betancourt as well; he's one of the best puncheurs, and as a not-so-great climber, he might be a top stage hunter for the hilly stages - especially as he'll already be rather far back after the prologue.
But there are some other riders on the list, who were not mentioned, but could still create a surprise - as Tour de Slovenie winner Sepulveda, or his two teammates Berhane and Ji. We're hopefully set for a very interesting GC fight!
And then, we do of course have some stage hunters here. Let's start with the sprinters, who will want to take their chances on the 2nd and 7th stages:
Rider
Spr
Acc
Rec
Coquard
84
83
84
Groenewegen
82
81
85
Guerao
83
76
81
Kennaugh
82
81
80
Nelson
81
81
79
Van Poppel
81
78
78
Samolenkov
80
79
78
Serebriakov
80
77
79
Nizzolo
80
79
71
Coquard has the best top speed and acceleration, and should be the top favorite for these stages. Furthermore, he could use the prologue to get a great position for obtaining the leader's jersey after stage 2 - or even win the prologue? And his great recovery will surely help him for stage 7, after some very long and hard stages. In Weber and Barbier, he's got two good leadouts - let's see if this works out better for his team than in Qatar.
Qatar, a race where especially Groenewegen has shown a great performance, finishing 2nd overall with quite consistent results. In Bauhaus and Sbaragli, he has even some faster leadouts than Coquard.
Guerao has done some good things in the desert as well, but with his bad acceleration (for a sprinter), he can sometimes struggle to get to his top speed fast enough. Leadout-wise, we'll see what Hsu can do for him.
Kennaugh has a good top speed as well, and should be about as fast as Groenewegen. However, he might struggle slightly more on the last stage, due to his less efficient recovery. And he's got "only" one real leadout in Clarke - which can however still be sufficient.
Nelson has already done some good leadouts for Ewan, and can now try his own luck. In Edmondson and Matthews, he should have to good leadouts.
Van Poppel then lacks some acceleration as well, and his top speed is slightly lower, too. However, Brus does know how to do a great leadout, so we shouldn't rule him out, either.
Team Tinkoff again tries a multi-sprinter-strategy - which didn't work out at all in Qatar. Can Samolenkov and Serebriakov do better here?
Nizzolo finally will probably mainly target stage 2, as he will likely not be fit enough anymore for the last stage. He doesn't really have any support - can he just pick the right wheel then?
Finally, here are the favorites for the opening stage - the 5.4km prologue:
Rider
Prl
Res
Gonzalez Salas
80
76
Van Winden
80
70
Taaramäe
79
80
Gesink
79
79
Lammertink
79
76
Coquard
79
74
Hansen
79
73
Brändle
79
73
Malori
79
73
Goldstein
79
72
Herklotz
78
80
Jungels
78
75
Oliveira
78
75
Dal Col
78
72
Bernaudeau
78
71
Korsaeth
78
71
Gonzalez Salas and Van Winden should have the highest speed - but especially the latter may suffer from his low resistance.
An issue that Taaramäe and Gesink very likely won't encounter - they are in a great position for taking the leader's jersey right from the start.
Coquard then has the option of taking the jersey and keeping it for one more day - just as Van Winden - whereas the others on the list are likely to lose it on stage 2. But we'll hopefully have a very close race on this first day!
In terms of U25 favorites, we don't have to search far: Anyone but Herklotz taking it would be a huge surprise! Lopez as the best Mo-Hi-hybrid behind him should have good chances for 2nd, though, whereas Carthy, Ndayisenga, Godoy and Frankiny could be battling for third.
But now, let's finally look at the startlist. Two wildcards have been awarded: once again to Campari, and to ISA - Hexacta, the latter coming here with a great line-up, especially on the hills.
The first stage will probably only be posted on Friday. Sorry for the delay!
There are certainly possible race scenarios in which I could accept Herklotz getting beaten in the GC by Taaramäe and Spilak, but it definitely has to be the goal to keep everyone else behind him to secure a podium spot. Combining 3rd place points with the expected white jersey points (sorry knockout, not quite yet!) equals 2nd anyway.
In an ideal world, Herklotz rides the hilly stages aggressively to at least get bonus seconds, while certainly enjoying the stage lengths and the downhill on stage 4 in particular.
Stage 5 will then require similar efforts to what he showed on his way to win the Vuelta against slightly weaker opposition. The steep section looks juicy.
With Arndt and Demare leading elsewhere in the triple clash, we could only afford to send our pure climbers here, but I hope Silvio didn't forget how to handle hills over the winter. It'll be interesting to see how our new addition Vasyliv can fit into the team in his first race supporting Herklotz.
And what a startlist here. Was quite expected as all PT mountain riders basically can go here.
My team around Velits, Keinath, Dekker ist looking very strong GC wise but in this startlist having Velits in top15, Keinath top25 and Dekker top50 is all I can hope for...and so hope is bigger to have them racing active once they have lost a bit in the earlier stages to potentially grab the KoM or a stage win. At least would be good to see them in the break over Koep/Dlamini day for day.
A lot better chances for Groenewegen to shine again. Not sure his stats are good enough to get a train, but if he does, Bauhaus/Sbaragli are decent.
Having 8 riders here hopefully turns out well as it is a small advantage over several other teams e.g. Coquard/Kennaugh, Nelson, Nizzolo.
GC wise a thrilling and GT checking fight between Herklotz, Taaramae, Spilak, Dombrowski here. And then might be interesting to see how PCM18 handles Gesink/Morton. Later might have an improved season really, which would be good for Bennelong.
We hope that it is finally our time for some succes. A stage (or preferably two) is a must with Coquard favorite for 2, and outsider for 1, and Lecuisinier decent too.
A good race would be top 5 in the opener, winning stage 2+ leaders jersey, top 5 GC for Lecuisinier and another stagewin for Coquard. So we probably won’t get any of that :-)
Why is Van Winden in the same boat as Coquard as a rider that can keep the jersey after stage 2? He can’t sprint for anything.
Wow, that's quite a startlist, stacked with top class stage racers. SEeing how stage races have played out so far this season, I fear what feels like more randomness considering Taaramae's chances for an overall win. That must be the goal, though, as it's another race where we simply must deliver.
The support for Taaramae isn't the best, we must admit, but hopefully he uses the opportunity to race aggressive and not be passive while other contenders ride away earlyish on the key stages.
Thank you for your comprehensive preview, Fabianski!
Stage hunting team here for us. Salas for the prologue, a win would be ideal, but i'll settle with a stage podium. Then Nizzolo hopefully getting involved in the sprint in S2, and from there we have some climbers like Ndayisenga, Pedrero, Roson that can go in breakaways and fight for the KoM jersey.
Really like how strong is the startlist, making me feel great about the decision of this being the only mountain race in the season where i don't have a real leader
Poor Rein, left my Rein-bots for this... Still rooting for him over Spilak ofc ;-)
Sent quite a strong squad here myself (I think I did for all races in this tripleheader) and hoping for something special from Guldhammer and Preidler. Hopefully they will be aggressive and give us some good results
Morton was disastrous in his P-N outing last year and he's always someone, who can easily disappoint me in races. May this be one of his better outings then! Top-8 must be the minimum goal, Top-5 would be nice. Just hoping for him to not lose stupid time in splits and to be amongst those, who actually try to perform in the mountains. His support is good, just like the (nice!) preview says.
Coming off a nice start into the season, it's at least kinda "relaxing" to follow this race. Obviously, another Morton failure in one of his few appearances would be terrible though.
For the first time in Evonik history, the mountainous part of the triple header is actually really interesting for us. Lopez might not be a contender yet but this race is an important pointer towards what we can expect from him this year and whether he and Blythe can cover the loss of points through Gregs departure. Him and Vosekalns could be a cool duo for the uphill stages (plus Egger is there too) while there is little pressure on Blythe/Eislers in the sprints. Paprstka and De Bondt are only there to get some valuable XP which is rather rare for us this season.
Not sending Stoltz here might look like a bit of a dumb decision but id rather wanted him to lead out Van Stayen. The decision looks worse now that the startlist here is known with little PRL power. But im waiting for the other race to start before judging it.
Very funny for us to be in a race like this, coming from CT, as i see it looks like a great spectator race following it with no pressure. We may even steal a few PT points, (sorry)
Tirreno - Adriatico 
