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Amstel Gold Race Discussion
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 28-12-2017 09:29
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The Ardennes Classic are here! And the first one is the only one outside of Belgium; the Amstel Gold Race. 252 kms of ups and downs, and never going in straight line. All to finish in one of the most mythical climbs in the world; Cauberg
| 2016 | Simone Ponzi | Francesco Ginanni | Yuri Trofimov | | 2015 | Simone Ponzi | Simon Spilak | Ben Gastauer | | 2014 | Yuri Trofimov | Frank Schleck | Simone Ponzi | | 2013 | Edvald Boasson Hagen | Stefan Schumacher | Yuri Trofimov | | 2012 | Phillipe Gilbert | Jan Bakelants | Yuri Trofimov | | 2011 | Edvald Boasson Hagen | Jan Bakelants | Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez | | 2010 | Frank Schleck | Edvald Boasson Hagen | Danilo Di Luca | | 2009 | Michael Boogerd | Alejandro Valverde | Riccardo Ricco | | 2008 | Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez | Danilo Di Luca | Michael Boogerd | | 2007 | Filippo Pozzato | Fabian Cancellara | Xavier Florencio |
The top favourite, for this one and for every hilly classic, is the two-times reigning champion  Simone Ponzi. Last year he won it in a rather mass sprint. while in 2015 he arrived alone at the finish in Valkenburg. His skill set allows him to go for the win in every possible way. For Hugo Boss would be the perfect end to their best month ever, after winning Giro d'Italia and Tour of California
The other top favourite is  Jan Bakelants, a rider who has never won this race, and hasn't even finished in the podium in the last four years. The Belgian is slightly worse than Ponzi in a sprint finish, although he likes very long races like this one.
Behind the two top favourites, there is one rider that deserved to named thirdly despite not being the third best puncheur in the race. We are talking about  Peter Sagan, the man who has won both PT hilly classics so far this season, and might not find any other race that suit him better. His monster downhill abilities should be key for a great result here. A former winner (2014) in  Trofimov, who despite starting his decline is still one of the best for these races, and might surprise to win the race for a second time.
As in every Ardennes classic, there is a big group of riders that in the right day could win the race, although they should usually fight for podium places at most. While  Bobridge could be haunted by the "250 km mark", riders like  Skujins,  Spilak,  Ginanni,  Lutsenko,  De Bie and  Kelderman can't wait to sprint against the likes of Ponzi, Bakelants or Sagan, if they want to win the race. They have to attack, trying to out-smart the top favourites.
There are two riders that will be looking to a very calmed race, being the two best punchy sprinters in the world; Van Stayen and Demare. Both riders have a solid team leader in Skujins and Kelderman, but if the race ends up being decided in a big group sprint, they'll become the main favourites for the win
| Top Favourites | HIL | STA | ACC | Outsiders | HIL | STA | ACC | | Ponzi | 84 | 77 | 80 | Koretzky | 80 | 77 | 79 | | Bakelants | 84 | 81 | 78 | Demare | 79 | 75 | 81 | | Sagan | 82 | 78 | 76 |  McCarthy | 81 | 80 | 74 | | Trofimov | 82 | 79 | 75 |  Flügel | 81 | 79 | 74 | | Skujins | 83 | 80 | 76 |  Gastauer | 82 | 78 | 76 | | Spilak | 82 | 80 | 74 |  Gautier | 80 | 76 | 77 | | Bobridge | 83 | 74 | 80 |  Boswell | 80 | 77 | 76 | | Ginanni | 83 | 78 | 74 |  Bystrom | 79 | 75 | 76 | | Lutsenko | 81 | 76 | 81 | Vakoc | 80 | 75 | 74 | | De Bie | 82 | 77 | 75 | Bilbao | 79 | 77 | 75 | | Kelderman | 82 | 80 | 72 | Pichon | 79 | 74 | 76 | | Van Stayen | 79 | 76 | 78 |  Beltran | 79 | 73 | 76 |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 07-12-2025 09:46
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 28-12-2017 09:36
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Not too convinced about Bobridge here. But maybe he overperformes for a change. Top 10 must be the goal even with his low stamina. Just try something or play it smart at least.
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| Shonak |
Posted on 28-12-2017 09:45
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Tour de France Champion
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Very nice preview Aquarius. Looking forward to the Ardennes and I hope for some good results. We really need it after that rotten Giro performance by Strava.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| dev4ever |
Posted on 28-12-2017 10:11
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Lets keep the momentum going and get another win here please 
Very much looking forward to see if Ponzis progress this season continues!
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 28-12-2017 11:24
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Should be a interesting clash. Give the current state of affairs I'd lay my eggs on Ponzi's basket. A hat-trick of victories would go well with Hugo Boss's current inability to lose a race.
As to us, we can only hope most of our riders finish the race.
Thanks for the preview Aquarius.
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| knockout |
Posted on 28-12-2017 11:47
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Grand Tour Champion
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Ardennes are here, I'm excited 
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| Roman |
Posted on 28-12-2017 11:54
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Vakoc to help Sagan to score another top result? That sounds like the good outcome of all of these Ardennes classics. Agree a lot that Amstel or maybe LBL are the best chances on paper for Sagan. Fingers crossed.
Thanks for the preview.
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| DaveTwoBob |
Posted on 28-12-2017 12:25
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Hope Flügel can find the same form he found to win Strade Bianche, Top 10 will be a good result.
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| ember |
Posted on 28-12-2017 12:32
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Encouraging to see Beltran named in the long list of riders, but I don't have any big expectations here considering the performances so far this season on similar "easy" hilly terrain. Though, I guess it might not take much to turn that with a lucky result, and it would be amazing if this was the race it happened in
Really should be between Ponzi and Bakelants, but then there's Sagan who has proved all season he should be named up there as well. Seeing Spilak at the start is also interesting, as it's probably the hill classic that suits him the least on paper. |
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| Heine |
Posted on 28-12-2017 12:37
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And this is where my momentum stops :-p
Just hope my numbers can do something better than minimum
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| cio93 |
Posted on 28-12-2017 13:36
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World Champion
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It's Ardennes time!
I can't expect Kelderman to win one of these races again, but still I hope for good consistent results this week.
To start things off, I hope he can use his 80 stamina here and either follow a decisive attack or end the last Cauberg in a great position.
Demare obviously wants a similar race as last season, but then again the final sprint is too short to make up lots of places. A great daily form to stay close to the front is needed.
Overall, I hope for a Top 10 and a Top 15 result. With the potential randomness of this finish, why not get lucky though? Bongiorno's Giro certainly motivated the whole team.
Maybe Arndt and Felline can add some points with their good sprint stats as well.
At the front, it's about time somebody keeps Sagan from going complete Sagan this season  Then again, that would be maximum points going to a team we're not fighting...
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| viking90 |
Posted on 28-12-2017 15:01
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Ardennes, well not Spotify - Haglöfs strongest time of the year...
If we can repet our Top 15 in Badaling Int. from Haugard Jensen I will be very happy and maybe get Byström in Top 50 atleast.
My crazy tip is Ponzi or Lutsenko. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 28-12-2017 15:04
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Sagan is probably winning here to ensure we won't have a shot at battleing for the overall PT win.
Spilak is here and in Liege because it's classic races giving more points, so usually it is a good payout even if he doesn't perform really well...
We are hoping for a top 5 and a top 15, but it will be difficult. I'm hoping for some aggressive riding from either Koretzky or Spilak. We need to outperform Moser in these ardennes if we are to bounce back.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 28-12-2017 15:29
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A hilly race in our home country; naturally our sponsors really want us to do well here. Ginanni has great support here and I hope he has the legs to repeat last year's success.
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 29-12-2017 09:10
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What a season Sagan is having
Unfortunate for Ponzi though, always sucks to have the race favourite retiring.
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| viking90 |
Posted on 29-12-2017 09:19
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Ouch on Ponzi, atleast they had a great Giro at Hugo Boss.
We did not manage our high hopes on top 15 but we got two guys in top 30, and another one in top 50. Which is good for us in a hilly race.
Sagan is IRL Sagan this season, congrats once again Roman!
Thanks for the report!
Bruno Borges having a good seasong so far at Porto - Prio 
Edited by viking90 on 29-12-2017 09:33
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| ember |
Posted on 29-12-2017 09:37
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This Sagan kid is too good! Congratulations again, Roman
I guess we were lucky having Hoelgaard in 18th, which also is a good result from him, seeing we had no riders in the 25 riders big group chasing Sagan about five kilometers from the line. It's just a completely new world without EBH. Though, hopefully Beltran will show more than this in both Fleche and LBL, as a completely anonymous 50th place and being dropped way too early isn't what we expect from our leader.
And thank you for the report, Aquarius97! Great to have the Ardennes rolling |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 29-12-2017 10:22
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Well. Moser is just confirming their title run,I guess. Wins and podiums everywhere.
Bobridge with an anynomous race to 11th. Not good. No disaster. Should do better im the other classics. Please.
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| SotD |
Posted on 29-12-2017 10:42
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Congratulations to Moser on the PT win.
It will be impossible to beat a team that have both Bewley and Sagan winning basically every race they attend.
We can't be unhappy with our result, but we will have to settle for 2nd in the PT at most, that much can't be debatable.
Spilak as usual not as strong as similar riders, and I really don't get why. Also Clement Koretzky decided to have a bad day to finish quite far down.
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 29-12-2017 10:50
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That was quite an anti-climax for us. Ginanni has his whole team working for him all race, starts the final climb in a good position to go for the podium and then completely dissappears off the radar. 12th is just not good enough.
Sad to see the big favourite drop out of the race like that. Guess Hugo Boss partied too hard after their recent success.
And I sure hope we're not seeing the start of an era where hilly races are dominated Bewley-style as well. Congrats though. 
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