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Paris-Roubaix Discussion
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| Aquarius97 |
Posted on 07-12-2017 11:57
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This awesome preview was made by baseballover321. He was due to run the race also, but he had technical problems and i had to "take care" of the report
Paris - Roubaix. Cobbles, cobbles, and more cobbles. No hills to get in the way of treachery that makes up the road surface. They say road bikes weren't made for them. They probably weren't. But like a lion in an African savannah, a few men have been able to tame the pave and make it the stage for their place in cycling history. This year, northern France will be trekked across yet again, giving the riders another chance to do just that.
There's been talk for the last decade of the progression from stars of the past, present and future in northern classics. I think it's time we put that discussion to rest. Over the past few years, many superstars have fallen from the top echelons, and many young guns have sought to find their place on the throne, but none of them have been able to come near one man.
 Sam Bewley has won the past four Paris-Roubaix editions. He's done it front long range, mid range, short range, and sprints. He's done it with help from his team, and as a lone wolf. He does it because he is simply greater than every other rider in the peloton in this niche. He has some domestiques, but in the end he usually doesn't need them. He's just that good. However, bike races are often not won and lost based on who's the strongest. They are raced for a reason - anything can happen.
One person who definitely wants something different to happen in  Greg Van Avermaet. After leader into the final turn in the velodrome last year, Bewley simply found a gear GVA didn't, and powered past him for the victory. But Bewley can't win every time, right? That's what the Belgian and Evonik will like to think, and if last year was any indication, Van Avermaet is next in line.
Both of them will be challenged by an American,  Danny Summerhill. Summerhill has had a very tough relationship with Roubaix in the past. In 2015, he paced on the front of the favorites group for dozens of kilometers, only to be swamped in the sprint and end up outside the top 15. Then last year, Summerhill spent time dominating the PCT circuit with Azteca. Now he's back and wants to finally prove that he can conquer the biggest race in his discipline. The problem - he has basically no team behind him for late in the race, and 2015 could haunt him again if he doesn't play his strategy right.
On the contrary,  Adam Blythe has had a pretty good relationship with the Hell of the North, finishing in the top 10 the past 3 years, and the top 5 the past two years. However, he is capable of the podium, and he knows it. 4th place twice in a row doesn't appease a rider of his caliber. He's got a good kick just as well as he can match others on the cobbles, so he'll be looking to use it against his opposition.
 Florian Senechal is a young start on the classics scene. He managed 3rd place from the main chase group, and no doubt he'll be looking to improve this year, as flat cobbles are his forte in every sense. Just like last year, he'll be backed by superdomestique Andy Fenn, his secret weapon. Fenn has his own history of solid results in Roubaix, and no doubt Pendelton's will hope to use him as a wildcard in their strategies.
One rider who is used to having a solid squad around him is  Pieter Vanspeybrouck. For years at Bpost he was spoiled with great domestiques . Now he doesn't really have that to back him, except perhaps Saber in the extremely rare event the race is fairly unselective. For VSB, that means attacking long might be his best shot at a victory, but it can be done. his prowess on cobblestones is undeniable.
There's a new guy on the block this year in Roubaix. Well, it'd be a little incorrect to call  Matteo Trentin a new guy on the block. At 28, he's had plenty of experience in the many facets of professional cycling. That being said, he specifically trained on the cobbles all offseason, and is looking much stronger than before. In addition, there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that Aker have the strongest squad in the race. They added pieces without taking anything away from last season. Not only do you still have Kristoff for a sprint and to help, but you have Ringheim, Breen, Gaudin, Lhotellerie, and of course the legend himself, Fabian Cancellara, every single one of which is capable of a top 20 in their own right. They can dominate the front, attack with tons of options, or go all out to protect. They have so many options and will no doubt want to use them.
Next in line is  Ruben Zepuntke. Year after year we hear about this kid's raw natural talent as the cobbles season culminates, and except huge things from. Instead, he's always just stayed on the cusp in Roubaix. At 24, he's still very young, but he's been on the scene for so long that it's doubtful he's going to get much better physically. Instead, he needs to follow a smart race and learn to fend for himself.
Adopted Sri Lankan  Jerome Baugnies has made his way over from Strava, and he'll look for a good result for his new team. They seem to be perpetually in the relegation/promotion fight each year, so obviously he will need to scrounge up as many points as he can get. The longer and more grueling the race, the more it tests endurance, and the happier Baugnies is.
 Sep Vanmarcke is back for Vesuvio. He broke through for 6th place last year, and will look to improve on that this time around. He also has very little team behind him or a strong sprint. But anything can happen depending on how the race plays out, and he'll definitely be in the mix.
Grieg - Eftel has a nice cobbles history. They parted ways with Trentin over the past off season, increasing the role of  Lukasz Wisniowski to full team leader. He's extremely well rounded, which he hopes will make up for the extra toll cobbles take on him compared to the top favorites. The drawback - well, he basically has no team, so there's that.
A few years, Pokerstars had one of the most formidable classics squads out there. Then they sold it all and changed direction. But now Ibera - Team Degenkolb, they have not abandoned their hopes.  Nikolas Maes take the lead here, and he has potential for a great result, but let's not neglect to mention Roger Kluge, who stepped up and took a shocking 3rd place in 2015, only behind Bewley and his former teammate Boonen.
 Joeri Stallaert, always one of Vanspeybrouck's best teammates, has struck out on his own with Spotify, and like Trentin, spent all winter training for this type of race. He sprint will help him from a small group, but unfortunately his knack for recovering in stage race races will not help him in the day long epic that's here.
Two riders that look to lead their respective team to a great result are  Ferreira for Porto - Prio and  Sulimov for Tinkoff Sport Academy. Both of them can keep up on the cobbles and want a good result. They just don't have much to distinguish them skills or team wise, so they'll have to distinguish themselves on the road... or lack of road.
Of course, in such a big race, the list of contenders is almost never exhausted.  David and Jacobs will team up for Festina, while  Lampaert and Sinkeldam will do the same for eBuddy.  Veelers,  Langeveld
and  Kulppi will all try to secure some minor points for their respective teams.
But for some, the experience is the only reason to be here. We can't frown upon those teams and riders either. Roubaix surely is one hell of an experience!
| Rider | COB | SPR | STA | FLAT | | Bewley | 83 | 83 | 78 | 78 | | Van Avermaet | 82 | 78 | 78 | 78 | | Blythe | 82 | 76 | 76 | 76 | | Summerhill | 83 | 70 | 76 | 78 | | Senechal | 82 | 69 | 79 | 75 | | Kristoff | 78 | 83 | 75 | 75 | | Trentin | 81 | 75 | 76 | 74 | | Stallaert | 79 | 79 | 76 | 77 | | Wisniowski | 79 | 73 | 75 | 80 | | Kluge | 77 | 77 | 77 | 78 | | Vanspeybrouck | 82 | 67 | 78 | 76 | | Baugnies | 80 | 65 | 80 | 78 | | Vanmarcke | 80 | 70 | 77 | 76 | | Saber | 76 | 81 | 74 | 75 | | Zepuntke | 81 | 72 | 79 | 72 | | Ringheim | 78 | 73 | 75 | 72 | | David | 78 | 70 | 76 | 74 | | Zhupa | 77 | 74 | 78 | 75 | | Maes | 79 | 62 | 79 | 80 | | Ferreira | 79 | 71 | 74 | 73 | | Fenn | 79 | 70 | 75 | 72 | | Breen | 77 | 73 | 72 | 77 | | Sulimov | 79 | 65 | 77 | 73 | | Weber | 75 | 77 | 74 | 73 | | Veelers | 77 | 75 | 72 | 73 |
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| Ollfardh |
Posted on 07-12-2017 12:03
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Tour de France Champion
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I'm going for a bold prediction here:
1) Bewley
2) GVA
3) Summerhill
Changed my sig, this was getting absurd.
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 07-12-2025 09:46
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| Gustavovskiy |
Posted on 07-12-2017 12:24
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Nice. Looking forward to beating Project Africa here!
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| tastasol |
Posted on 07-12-2017 12:24
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3030
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Massive preview! Great read, bbl - a shame you're not able to report it.
Wisniowski here, looking to improve on his 16th place here last season. A top 10 would be great.
Odds for Bewley to take the win: 1.01
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| cio93 |
Posted on 07-12-2017 12:25
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World Champion
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A stellar preview! Thanks bbl.
Our second Top 3 goal of the season. After Demare just outside the podium in San Remo, we hope Blythe can indeed improve on his last two results in the velodrome.
Realistically, the expectation has to be between 4th and 6th place, with the big three looking tough to beat so far this season and Senechal, Trentin and Vanspeybroeck as the only other riders that should be on Blythe's level.
Daily form and material luck will be very important as always, I do hope for a positive swing after a bad Ronde.
Weber and Declerq had a brilliant race last season in 14th and 26th. We can't expect a similar performance again, but it would be very appreciated in light of the current standings.
Up front, how about Summerhill for a change? 
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| Shonak |
Posted on 07-12-2017 12:45
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Tour de France Champion
Posts: 15579
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Very nice preview indeed. I hope for some strava riders in the breakaway (finally). This was sorta my get-go strategy to score points but somehow this has not worked as I wanted. Langeveld should probably be good for a Top 20 with some luck and good support, who knows.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| trekbmc |
Posted on 07-12-2017 13:23
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Now that's a preview! Thanks BBL! 
Young is going to win of course, but behind him Wisniowski making a podium for Poland and Stallaert winning the sprint behind his solo attack. Bewley fails to make the top 100. 
"What done is, is one." - Benji Naesen
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| viking90 |
Posted on 07-12-2017 14:43
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 3836
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If Stallaert can make a new top 10 like in RvV I will be very happy!
This race should suit him better with the lack of hills.
We can take that scenario trek |
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| DubbelDekker |
Posted on 07-12-2017 14:47
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Classics Specialist
Posts: 2797
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Veelers made the preview 
Top 20 would be nice
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| baseballlover312 |
Posted on 07-12-2017 15:02
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Thanks for posting my preview, glad my work didn't go to waste!
As you guys know, I've reported this one 3 years running, and I wanted to do it again. Unfortunately my graphics card completely died while racing this, so I had to give it up. I have entrusted Aquarius with it this season, and I believe the report will probably be better than mine have been.
On the racing side, I just want to throw this possibility out there and test the waters. What is Sam Bewley doesn't win it? What would that even mean at this point?
RIP Exxon Duke, David Veilleux, Double Feature, and Monster Energy |
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| roturn |
Posted on 07-12-2017 16:17
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Great preview and surprised I did send Boom here and to RVV. Apparently found two more race days.
Not that I expect a lot. Top20 would be great. Top30 wanted. At least more than minimum points.
Bewley - GVA is easy. Then it`s wide open with Summerhill maybe an small advantage. |
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| knockout |
Posted on 07-12-2017 18:33
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Grand Tour Champion
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2015 - Evonik followed Bewley into the velodrome.
2016 - Evonik was overtaken after the final corner.
2017 - ?
They see three times is a charm so maybe the reason why GVA couldn't win a cobbled race for me yet is that he hasn't races any for the third time?
Ofc, I'll be happy for 2nd as well should that happen but somehow I have a good feeling for this eventhough this should be the safest Bewbastard win. But last season's photo finish gives me hope.
As always I have a special guest in my cobbled team - this time it is Dzamastagic who could be useful due to his power on the flats. Expecting Nooytens to step up as well - otherwise those loans are looking bad.
A Big Thank You To All MG Reporters! |
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| tsmoha |
Posted on 07-12-2017 18:48
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Cool preview, thanks for that!
Really not expecting a big result for Vanspeybrouck, but after a quite disappointing performance at the E3 Prijs, we certainly need something like he did at RvV. Top-10 surely as the minimum goal, would definitely prefer a Top-5 though Hopefully he will have a good daily form to match those guys, who will fight for the 3rd place after Bewleyvanavermaet.
A race probably too heavy for Saber, but maybe he's up for a Top-25 result or something like that.
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| Heine |
Posted on 07-12-2017 20:50
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Come on Zepuntke, surprise everyone!
I hope this will be an exsiting race before Bewley wins it. Would be great if he atleast seemed to struggle a bit.
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| ember |
Posted on 07-12-2017 22:25
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Very, very nice preview!
Hoping for another good team performance here. A podium or Trentin would be amazing, but as in the other cobbles classics this season, anything from 3rd to 7th/8th would be realistic, I think.
Obviously depth is key for us, and it would be very nice to get results similar to the list of 25 riders in the preview, as another solid points haul would make me comfortable, even with the Ardennes looming |
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| fjhoekie |
Posted on 08-12-2017 08:23
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A rider making it to the Velodrome would be quite the achievement already...
Manager of Team Popo4Ever p/b Morshynska in the PCM.Daily Man-Game |
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| Tamijo |
Posted on 08-12-2017 10:13
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All these cob races is (you may say sadly from the outsider point of view) a battle for 3rd, and that is hard to predice.
Would be cool though if we get the big surprice
(again seen from the neutral outsider point of view, and not in the form of a crash.)
Great preview
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| Shonak |
Posted on 08-12-2017 10:32
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Tour de France Champion
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Wtf Zepunkte finally doing something for Heine after all that stuff in the PCT last year, great to see 
Bewley is such an beast, keeps toying with competition. Gratz Roman.
Race wasn't all that exciting as the past few cobbled ones but at least we saw some attacks. Thanks Aquarius for your great and fast reporting, very much appreciated.
"It’s a little bit scary when Contador attacks." - Tommy V
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| tastasol |
Posted on 08-12-2017 10:34
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Bewley again, eh? Not looking his best perhaps, but he just can win the race so many ways. Congrats on the win, Roman.
Wisniowski 17th and a step down from last year. Surely his crash didn't help him, and I much rather have a bad day here, than when it actually counts.
Thanks for the report, Aquarius.
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| roturn |
Posted on 08-12-2017 10:36
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Great report. Very well written and nicely covered.
Really weird to see what happens if Bewley is on a bad day.
Still strong enough to remain with everyone until the sprint and then still destroys them.
Senechal with a very deserved 2nd. Probably the strongest today with GVA also just average.
Weirdest to see though Zepuntke and Sulimov. Didn`t see that one coming but nice changes there for once.
Blythe yet again underperforming on the cobbles. Clearly should have done more.
My team did nothing. 2 loanies being my best riders as Boom as 55th clearly was on a rather bad day as well here and Bovenhuis is doing nothing all season so far unfortunately...
Not that I expected a lot but top30 would have been nice and imo possible on a decent day. |
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