10th edition for one of the most iconic PT’s stage races for complete climbers: the Tour de Suisse. Over the years the Swiss race, one of the longest in the entire MG calendar, has become increasingly prestigious, and rightly so, including names in the winners book such as Andy Schleck, back to try to repeat his 2014 victory or at least add another podium to the 4 he achieved in this race, his brother Frank, Simon Spilak, Aleksandr Pluchkin and Andrei Amador, back here after being the winner in 2013, and the runner-up the year after.
With 4 short mountain stages, the race is supposed to make room for spectacle since the very take off, giving the chance to riders to change the looks of the GC every single other day. Add in the mix a Team Time Trial and an Individual one, as well as a hilly stage that will be hard to interpret for teams and riders alike, and you have what it takes to provide a race that is hard to predict.
After an impressive showing of strength earlier in the season with a dominant Paris-Nice victory, as well as an overall perfect 2015, the World Champion Andy Schleck comes here as the top favorite, head and shoulders above the opposition, led by Amador and Dombrowski. The former, leader of one of the 2 wild-card home teams, has not completely dominated the PCT calendar like some expected, but has certainly been the most consistent climber so far, while the latter has also been really consistent throughout the first half of the season.
Even though the 3 of them certainly come here with better chances than most, in the MG everything can happen, so let’s take a look at a complete list of favorites as well as the complete list of riders taking the start.
Climber
MO
TTR
TTT
HIL
ACC
RES
Schleck
85
74
72
75
79
82
Amador
84
78
70
75
72
74
Dombrowski
84
71
72
75
75
78
Morton
82
73
81
76
66
78
Guldhammer
81
71
70
77
76
75
Van den Broeck
80
74
60
75
69
73
Suaza
80
73
72
65
79
76
Quintana
80
71
68
74
65
76
König
79
74
64
75
67
76
Galta
79
71
70
72
61
77
Olivier
79
69
71
75
71
80
Arndt
79
56
68
76
75
76
Warbasse
78
74
76
75
65
73
Diaz
78
72
66
70
68
73
Karnulin
78
70
74
74
70
75
Cataldo
78
69
65
75
73
76
Stancu
78
66
66
69
71
74
Aru
78
64
72
74
70
75
Goos
77
76
72
74
73
75
Kolesnikov
77
72
81
72
77
74
Agudelo
77
72
78
68
68
73
Vasyliv
77
72
73
74
67
72
Kwiatkowski
77
70
73
78
75
76
Schelling
77
69
70
74
70
75
Schleck is a solid time trialist, even if he’s not among the very best, but this won’t matter a lot because of the absence of the likes of Madrazo, Pluchkin, Tenorio or even Vuelta winner Gesink. In the TTT that should matter more than the shorter TT, Vesuvio does have a good support cast – the complete TTT table will be shown below.
Amador and Dombrowski are also supported by good TTT teams and they’re decent time trialists themselves, especially the Costa Rican.
Another interesting contender for the podium is Morton, who while is not the most explosive of the climbers, has a dream TTT team behind him. Differently from Guldhammer, who’ll try to make up as much time as possible in the shorter mountain/hilly stages, lacking a top TTT team.
Also make sure to watch out for the likes of Van den Broeck, who however is held back by a pretty abysmal TTT support, Suaza, who will suffer in the shorter ascents but will likely work for his captain anyway, Quintana, König, Galta, Olivier, Warbasse, coming here with one of the better support casts, Kolesnikov, rider with no real weak points who will make up as much time as possible in the TTT, where his team comes as shared favorite.
Sprinter
SPR
ACC
FLA
RES
HIL
Time Trialist
TTR
RES
Van Stayen
83
77
76
71
78
Zmorka
82
75
Kennaugh
82
81
77
71
65
Durbridge
81
74
Holloway
80
82
78
77
69
Vlatos
81
71
Guardini
80
82
72
69
64
Kittel
81
70
Keukeleire
80
79
72
68
70
Sütterlin
80
77
Groenewegen
80
79
71
69
65
Dillier
80
77
Meyer
80
76
72
65
61
Viennet
80
75
Lay
79
81
73
66
60
Sergent
80
74
Brus
78
78
71
69
64
Howson
80
74
Aregger
78
77
73
71
71
Hepburn
79
77
Moser
78
77
70
68
67
Fraile
79
76
Weylandt
78
74
73
67
63
Dempster
79
74
Sbaragli
77
78
76
70
66
Malori
79
73
Kreder
77
78
73
71
75
Koren
78
75
Dakteris
77
77
75
70
64
Jungels
78
75
Concerning stage hunters, we can notice that the field is surprisingly full of stars. Sprinters-wise, the names of Van Stayen and Kennaugh stand out. The former is the very favorite for the green jersey, thanks to his superior punching skills, while the latter relies on one of the highest top speeds in the peloton.
Holloway, however, possibly comes here with the best sprint train to help him out in the final meters of a stage, that we’ve seen matters more and more as cycling evolves.
The likes of Guardini, Keukeleire and Groenewegen, more than others, have the skills to bag stage wins and have proven so earlier in the season, either getting very close or doing so outright.
Worth mentioning that Aregger and Kreder, besides obviously MVS, do have very good hilly skills which will help in both the easy hilly stage and in stage 1, which features 2 steep speed bumps near the finish line.
On the other hand, there are a lot more time trialists that can contend the stage win in the shorter TT, as well as helping out their captains, that is. Zmorka is probably the top favorite consistency-wise, but Durbridge, Vlatos, Kittel, Sütterlin, Dillier, Viennet and many others on a good day could just prove to be better than the rest.
TTT Team
AVG
TTR
FLA
RES
TTT Team
AVG
TTR
FLA
RES
Tinkoff
81
224
147
110
Aker
70
212
140
110
Jayco'z
81
229
143
108
Orange
68
210
141
107
Grieg
80
227
144
107
Puma
68
207
144
108
Gazelle
78
222
144
110
eBuddy
66
207
141
107
Movistar
76
224
139
109
Red Bull
66
204
143
107
Metinvest
74
217
143
109
RBC
66
208
139
107
Kenya Airways
73
219
144
106
Vontobel
65
208
140
105
I-Gen
73
219
142
107
Becherovka
64
204
140
107
Vesuvio
72
216
139
111
Evonik
63
197
146
107
Pendleton's
72
215
141
109
Pokerstars.com
62
198
146
102
Aegon
71
212
143
108
Bouygues
60
197
136
106
UBS
70
216
138
108
Bpost
60
193
140
105
The teams that will contend this are pretty clear: there aren’t many strength differences between Tinkoff, Jayco'z and Grieg. Gazelle and Movistar might put up some fight for the podium, but it will take a solid overperformance for them to challenge the top spot – which has obviously happened in the past, and Movistar’s manager knows what I’m talking about, as it’s thanks to exactly a TTT that they’re still in PT this year!
Talking about the GC aspect, it’s likely we’ll see a few teams losing terrain heavily, and Bpost, led by Van den Broeck, is the perfect example of this, but the same will likely happen to Becherovka and König, as well as a few other teams.
Small hopes for a top10 here but I guess top15 is more realistic.
Groenewegen maybe a podium on one stage and consistent top7.
Not sure how important the TTT will become for the GC fight as the mountain stages might not be that hard. Hence Schleck could struggle here to win.
Hopefully Morton has good days in the mountains for tsmoha to give him some well needed success after the latest 2 GTs. Then a strong TTT and he could suddenly attack the podium.
Quite surprisingly not the strongest lineup we could expect in PT. König may actually have a chance for top 10 overall and that would be a massive result after such a bad season he has so far. It is going to be really hard form him as my TTT squad really misses quality after my decision to sell all my good time trialists.
König probably my only hope here though. Can't expect much from Vakoc, Cink or Danacik.
Slightly surprised and admittedly relieved to see the race lack most of the 81+ climbers. That should make a top 5 a very realistic goal for Guldhammer, eventhough we don't have a great TT team to back him up. It probably comes down to the final two stages nevertheless, where it's all about avoiding bad daily form, and the top 5 should be doable.
Also interesting to see Galta fairly high up considering the climbers here, meaning I can maybe hope for a little something from him as well, if he survives the hills that is.
Schleck is the obvious favourite, and we could be in for a rather unusual podium here with both Morton and Dombrowski being serious contenders. Looking forward to the race, and thank you for an informative preview, matt17br!
We should have definately split our sprinters here instead of letting both ride Dauphine. Either would have been a top 3 favorite for two stages, like Vlatos is.
Looking forward to see what Vasyliv will do when he is finally the sole captain of a race. Top 20 should be the goal. But boy oh boy how Vesuvio will rip this race apart. They are likely to win 3-4 stages, the GC, the KOM, the points and get another 3 riders in the top 15-20. They are even likely to catch up with us from this race alone.
The sprinter field looks to good to be true. Awesome opportunity for Van Stayen to add some further points and wins to his season. Not sure why i didnt brought Dzamastagic here as that decision might hurt me a lot.
For the GC I'm cheering for Amador. It's cool to see his team getting a wildcard for their home race. Big favourite must be Schleck.
I've been looking forward to this all season! There's a weak enough field that Amador should definitely be able to podium, but he's never going to beat Schleck for the win. Hopefully there will be a good fight. Thanks for the preview and the race.
Jayco'z 81AVG, while they only have two riders of 81TT in their team. If I calculate their setup it's 611/8 = 76,38, and if I pick the 5 strongest it's 390/5 = 78.
It's still very high, but not as high as you make it at. My team of 5 is 76,8 fx.
Tinkoff is 74,5 with 8 riders and 76,4 with 5 riders.
I wonder how Stepniak can do as my main sprinter, and if he decides to sprint at all. He is relatively decent in the bumpy stuff, although no way near the strongest. But if he could get a single top 10 here it would be nice to show for the loaning out team
Also, Bernaudeau must be around 15-20th in terms of pure TTists with 78TT, so I can only hope that he will be battling for a top 10 spot while Vlatos takes a podium - If he doesn't this race will be catastrophic for us, given that we have expected to claim somewhere in the region of 120-150 points from this race.
SotD wrote:
How is that AVG for the TTT calculated btw?
Jayco'z 81AVG, while they only have two riders of 81TT in their team. If I calculate their setup it's 611/8 = 76,38, and if I pick the 5 strongest it's 390/5 = 78.
It's still very high, but not as high as you make it at. My team of 5 is 76,8 fx.
I raised the AVG artificially to make it match with the other stats in order to use it in the climbers table.
The formula was I think [(TTsum*3/8)+(FLAsum*2/8)+(RESsum*1,5/8)]/3, the max number however was more or less 74 so I just raised it to make it look better.
Good effort from Hofer here - He should be leading the U25 competition - Why isn't he?
He is younger than Piter Campero who is always contesting the U25, and was 5th in the U25 competition in the Giro d'Italia: https://pcmdaily.c...d_id=46090
Too bad Hofer wasn't able to win the sprints and the KOM as Vandewalle scored well from that first stage. The sprint being uncontested from us. Too bad Stepniak isn't trying.
I see Bernaudeau losing quite some time here. Hopefully that was just him being badly positioned and not a crash. I really don't need a 78TT rider injured.
Nice to see Dan Eaton trying something for the first time in his young MG career. Welcome in the big cycling world young fella! Not bad to see him 5th overall, won't last for too long though.
Tour de Suisse 
