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Paris Nice discussion
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| Smowz |
Posted on 01-05-2014 21:39
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This year's race to the sun could be renamed race to the sky with two geniune mountain top finishes and the famous though recently rarely used Col d'Eze mountain time trial.
The tour begins with some rolling stages as usual, however with a twist for the first time we have a team time trial to kick things off. Just the one pure sprinters stage before we roll into two hilly stages - the first is a relatively gentle one before a really tough lumpy 'medium mountain' stage on the 4th day. There are five difficult climbs on this 210km day with a number of other smaller leg breakers.
These could well be days for breakaways but with two mountain top finishes to follow this, the mountain climbers will get their days. They will need to get their thermals on as they climb to the ski station at La Chaud on stage five, the cow bells will be ringing with the ski season still going on. The stage finishes with two short 7km slopes, first up the 9% average Cote de Laffrey certianly no laughing matter and then up to the ski station itself which is a slighter 7% average.
Stage six is headlined by the Montagne de Lure which is a long steady climb averaging 7% but the distance is a difficult 18km. At this early stage of the season these two mountains stages are really the first true mountain tests.
A sprint stage is squeezed in before the Col D'Eze Mountain TT on the final day, where it is expected again that the climbers will have another battlefield.
Startlist:
It is a very different startlist to last year with the star acts from last time not turning up including defending two time champion  Trofimov. However we have some superb stage racers here instead:
 Spilak is a former Tour de France champion and multiple Dauphine champion, he was a close third here in 2012 and with heavy investment put into him by his team he will expect at least the same here.
Whilst his most fancied stage racing rivals are absent  Schleck is certainly a danger, not least as he has possibly a stronger time trial team around him for the opening day chrono. Indeed it is a similar case for Italian  Nibali and French darling  Sicard.
Spilaks old rival and soon to be Tour de France champion  Dekker raced to 4th here last year and is back with his team desperately needing him to perform and one of Spilaks new teams former stage racer  Fothen is in a similar position. Watch out also for the trained  Velits who will have his first assessment here.
This is a decent course for pure climbers with little chrono ability if their team can cover for these deficiencies 2011 Paris Nice winner  Sella may struggle though with only six teammates. Meanwhile Rujano may be in a slightly better position after the TTT. Also watch out for  Van Den Broeck who had a nice year last year picking up good all round results.
Other decent shouts for a high finish would have to include  Taaramae, the Estonian will once again be tested in ProTour climate.  Dan Martin will look to improve on a solid year last year as will the up and down  Keinath. We should also mention  Rothaus - Aegon's tactic of sub par GC men all throughout the season, in this race Gomez Marchante.
Some young GC names will look to make a headline for themselves or at the very least hone their form going into important stage racing goals later on in the season. French second favourite  Pinot,  Good Energy trio Faiers, Cattaneo and Costagli and  Brambilli fit this category.
Scanning the startlist it is hard to find any headline sprinters this will be very encouraging for those teams with weak sprinters. French fast men Bouhanni, Bonnet and  Soupe may have realistic stage win chances against the likes of Trusov and Kreiger.
PCT team  Gazelle are here, though mountains are not their thing look out for this team to try something on the flatter stages and you never know with Weening.
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| cio93 |
Posted on 01-05-2014 21:44
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Holy shit, I just fell in love with Dekker's hair 
Cheering for the young gun Sicard and obviously VDB, but Schleck and Spilak have a very strong advantage with the MO stat gap here.
Plus, I'd love to see my old rider Bouhanni take something from this race.
Edited by cio93 on 01-05-2014 21:44
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| rycadinho |
Posted on 01-05-2014 21:52
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Nice preview as always Smowz.
It'll be one heck of a race, I'm really nervous/excited about Sicard - If he delivers here, then we can believe in a huge upset in the Tour.. but if not, then it'll be a long season. Rolland will hopefully be able to stay with Sicard for a long time, thanks to his nationality bonus.
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| ember |
Posted on 01-05-2014 22:01
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This is the only race this season where I have absolutely no expectations at all. Featuring in a breakaway or two will be a massive achievement 
Nice preview, Smowz. I'm cheering for a Spilak win, and I think he must be the favourite for the race, considering his outstanding combination of mountain, hill and time trial skills. |
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 01-05-2014 22:08
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Brambilli
But what a startlist. It should be a great race.
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| CountArach |
Posted on 01-05-2014 22:10
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That picture makes me want to punch Spilak in the face so badly.
Well I've sent my grade-A TTT lineup here with the hope that I can get VDB enough time to ensure that what he loses in the mountains will ultimately not hurt him as much and still give him a chance at a strong top 10 finish.
Judging from the two startlists here and at Tirreno, Catalunya is going to have the weakest GC line-up ever. I can imagine there will be a ton of sprinters though.
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| Ad Bot |
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 01-05-2014 22:32
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TTTs have always been a weak side for Vueling, and I'm starting to think it wasn't too wise to send Dekker here...
Competition could have been worse, though, so it shouldn't be too bad with two mountain top stages and a TT. |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 01-05-2014 22:37
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Quite happy with the relative competition level, hopefully Andy can go strongly. The first TTT test of the season too. It's not quite the lineup I will have to support Andy in other races, but it is similar, so will be interesting to see how it compares to Festina, and how much gains ING will make.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 01-05-2014 23:03
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CountArach wrote:
Judging from the two startlists here and at Tirreno, Catalunya is going to have the weakest GC line-up ever.
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| roturn |
Posted on 02-05-2014 00:08
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Hope for a top 15 here. Only possible if the time loss on the hills isn't too big though.
Some decent time trialists to reduce that loss. But far from my best.
I should have known the weak Sprint field. Guardini could have taken a win eventually.
But happy that Krieger in his only leader role can get a nice result. Always feels great when your former level 1 talents are mentioned in previews.
Nice preview and looking forward to the races. |
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| Bushwackers |
Posted on 02-05-2014 02:41
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Not really sure what to expect from Nibali here. A top-5 would be nice, but I'm sure he'll be a step below that. I'm excited to see how our improved TTT setup does her as well.
Should be a good battle between Spilak and Schleck though, I'm looking forward to watching that.
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| Roman |
Posted on 02-05-2014 04:37
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2x overall top 10 result would be good. Hopefully it was a good idea to send both Velits and Rujano here...
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| Smowz |
Posted on 02-05-2014 05:49
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@alex you know I like to misspell guys sometimes I think I will keep Brambilli
@roturn Kreiger of course has special place for me, being in SRB in 2013.
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| roturn |
Posted on 02-05-2014 09:17
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Smowz wrote:
@alex you know I like to misspell guys sometimes I think I will keep Brambilli
@roturn Kreiger of course has special place for me, being in SRB in 2013.
In the end I really like to idea of Krieger being here instead of the Italians. Surely those would have done better, but Krieger won`t get the chance elsewhere before next season. So an unmaxed German sprinter in a PT field being able to eventually top5-10 is awesome.
He obviously learned a lot from Van Stayen and (a bit less) from Van Heerden last season and I am very thankful.  |
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| rjc_43 |
Posted on 02-05-2014 10:07
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Limit losses on the TTT and then go for the breakaways hopefully. A trio of sub top climbers might be able to do one good stage result... might...
[url=cleavercycling.co.uk]  [/url] |
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| SotD |
Posted on 02-05-2014 11:53
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If Spilak doesn't win this I will have a very hard time fighting for the overall PT podium I guess. I can't expect to fare "easier" anywhere else. the competition is still fierce though, and clearly the TTT isn't my cup of tea anymore. I was considering letting Tzortzakis ride here, but in the end I decided that I needed him to support Guerao. But seeing that all the worst sprinting competitors will also be there I won't get anything out of a train anyway, so I should have brought him here.
I'm crossing my fingers for some attacks though. That's always fun.
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| niconico |
Posted on 02-05-2014 14:57
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Looking forward to the TTT. It's not my best line-up for that here, but there are similarities. Dempster-Steensen-Christensen is a strong trio to have for that particular stage though.
Hopefully we can set up Keinath for a Top 10.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 02-05-2014 17:56
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I doubt Bushwackers ever expected to win a TTT! It puts Nibali in a dangerous position, so I am glad that it is Nibali and not Amador who is here for them.
5th is good for us - it is nice to already have a 42 second advantage on Spilak. I feel like ING and Festina lost out a lot in the wind conditions there.
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| SotD |
Posted on 02-05-2014 18:03
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Hmm no luck here. I know we aren't good at TTT's but we should have done better than this I think. It will need a very good stage or two to pass both Nibali and Schleck now. Damn.
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| alexkr00 |
Posted on 02-05-2014 18:06
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18th in a TTT 
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