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Tour de l'Avenir Discussion
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 28-01-2011 12:23
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There's no point pretending otherwise, this year's Tour de l'Avenir is a two horse race - between two teammates, albeit fortunately racing for two different teams here. The Santander duo of Angel Madrazo and Justo Tenorio will go head to head, having both been gaining valuable experience in the ProTour this year, Madrazo for Festina (with whom he rides for here) and Tenorio for Lafarge (Tenorio will be on the Santander squad here though).
Last season both rode together for Santander, and Tenorio took a back seat to Madrazo (10th overall and 7th overall respectively) before then also supporting Madrazo to a Silver medal in the U23 Worlds. But in a year when both have raced not only their first Grand Tour, but their 2nd aswell, Tenorio has ridden well enough to justify being dubbed the slight favourite here. After 12th in the Giro, Tenorio crashed in the Vuelta to lost time early on, and still managed 11th - some five minutes ahead of Madrazo in 16th. Madrazo also getting to ride the Tour de France, but setback by a crash, finished down in 28th.
Beyond the Spaniards, there is nobody else to challenge for the win, but the battle for the final podium spot could be interesting. Based on Mountain stat, the next best rider is Teodoro Costagli for Vesuvio (on loan from Wiggle) who has managed just 70th and 74th in his two Giro d'Italia appearances to date. He was 24th here last year, which could put him under threat from the Mercedes duo of Ryan Eastman and Tyler Brandt. 18th and 23rd respectively last year. Like the 3 previous mentioned, both riders have 2 experiences of Grand Tours to date - and like the Spaniards, both are from this year - riding on loan for Wikipedia. Eastman being 51st in the Giro and 69th in the Tour, Brandt taking 76th in the Giro and 101st in the Vuelta.
The 6th rider to make not of is yet another rider on loan! But rather than being loaned from CT to PT, Rasmus Guldhammer was loaned the other way. Team B&O have a good history with the race, and for Telenor this season he has achieved 19th in the Tour of Austria, 14th in the Tour de Beauce and 8th in the Tour of Turkey. It shows promise, and a podium could well be possible here.
A final two to mention, and finally riders who have ridden for their actual team this season. Colombian Carlos Betancourt can stake claim to something the others cannot - a professional victory. That came in his home race, the Vuelta a Colombia. Betancourt is no time trialist though, unlike Jakub Danacik of Sony Ericsson. The best time trialist of all of his rivals for 3rd place, Danacik will be a serious threat.
Looking away from simply the mountains, and Alex Dowsett is a potential wildcard for the hills. The best in the race in the terrain alongside Maurice Schreurs and Tenorio, Alex Dowsett will make a rare apperance in 100% Me colours - having spent this season on loan to La Gazzetta, and the previous season on loan to Virgin Media. He has performed well aswell, although largely in a domestique role, with performances this year such as 11th in the Tour of Qatar, and 15th in the FBD Eire Tour. 11th in the Tour of Qatar appears to be a common factor amongst the hilly riders here, as that is the finishing position Schreurs took in the 2010 season. Since then, the Dutchman has ridden solely as a domestique - with no stand out individual performances for Philips. He was 95th in this year's Vuelta, 97th in last year's Giro - having also finished 27th in this year's Tour of California. Jelle Wallays of Pokerstars and Gracjan Lejman of Yamaha may alos hope to do something on the races hilly stages - as well as American Danny Summerhill, the Wikipedia man who has been included in the Quiksilver line up.
Moving onto the time trialists, and Festina have got the edge here - although Lucas Schadlich, who is perhaps the favourite for the time trial - based purely on TT stat that is, is a rider on loan from Team Telenor-SAS. He was 8th in the Avenir TT last year, and 6th in the World U23 TT. Both of those results should be improved in, and will need to be - as on both occasions he was beaten by Tenorio. He did manage 11th in the Tour de France prologue this year though, so the progress is evident. Festina do have two of their own who should be up there in the time trials aswell. Mathieu Bernaudeau will have home advantage here, while Wen Hao Li achieved 8th in last year's U23 Worlds. B&O's Dane Morten Reckweg, and the South African Reinhardt Janse van Rensburg, owned by Wikipedia, but riding for Yamaha, are two other riders whose main focus may be the time trial.
Finally, the sprints. Peter Kennaugh is the top rider here, and will be keen for a victory after a 2nd place in a stage last year. Supporting him is Adam Blythe, who so well led out Ben Swift to a stage win in last year's race. Challenging 100% Me is Michael Vingerling, the Bbox rider on the Festina squad, and Red Bull's Brazilian Manarelli. Aiding Manarelli will be Drapac, already a sprinter winner this year in the U23 Division.
Speaking of the U23 Division, a number of it's top performers will again be on show. Stand out riders Sven Vandoussellaere and Jocelyn Bar will look to impress against tougher opposition as will the Iranian Abolfazl Gilanipoor and Pendleton's Charles Anguilet.
And so to close the preview, my pre-race GC prediction:
1. Tenorio
2. Madrazo
3. Danacik
4. Eastman
5. Guldhammer
6. Costagli
7. Betancourt
8. Brandt
9. Schreurs
10. Copeland
Startlist:
Spoiler Santander
1. J.Tenorio
2. G.Bravo
3. V.Garcia De Mateos
4. S.Guardiola Tora
5. J.Herrada
6. M.Landa
7. M.Minguez Ayala
Festina
11. A.Madrazo
12. M.Bernaudeau
13. Y.Eijssen
14. J.Keukeleire
15. W.Li
16. L.Schädlich
17. M.Vingerling
Sony
21. J.Danacik
22. T.Enæs
23. N.Gustavsson
24. C.Nygren
25. J.Nystrand
Mercedes
31. R.Eastman
32. D.Alazzawi
33. T.Brandt
34. A.Gilanipoor
35. P.Hamed
36. A.Moazzemi
37. F.Navid
38. R.Van Zandbeek
Vesuvio
41. T.Costagli
42. B.Jungels
43. P.Locatelli
44. M.Machado
45. D.Milioni
46. J.Paquet
47. T.Tenzon
Team B&O
51. R.Guldhammer
52. E.Pidun
53. M.Reckweg
54. J.Sagan
Philips
61. M.Schreurs
62. S.Cioban
63. M.Hümbert
64. J.Kahra
65. F.Schiewer
66. B.Stamsnijder
Wikipedia
71. T.Copeland
72. N.Brown
73. B.Curfs
74. K.Eeckhout
75. C.Hoag
76. B.King
77. A.Sebright
Quiksilver
81. D.Summerhill
82. C.Betancourt
83. F.Boivin
84. F.Cruz
85. J.Hicks
86. T.Kuphaldt
87. P.Mach
88. G.Nizzolo
EL AL
91. I.Shapira
92. J.Bar
93. T.Bucher
94. N.Cohen
95. S.Haimy
96. N.Margalit
97. J.Poisson
Falcon
101. M.Mat Amin
102. M.Che Samsudin
103. F.Jernov
104. M.Lund
105. C.Mathiesien
106. J.Sørensen
100Me
111. A.Dowsett
112. S.Bennett
113. A.Blythe
114. A.Bonser
115. P.Kennaugh
116. J.Perrett
117. D.Rinner
118. J.Sampson
119. B.Stockdale
Pokerstars
121. J.Wallays
122. G.Atkins
123. D.Nerz
124. S.Vandousselaere
125. J.Vermote
126. G.Weissenbacher
Milka
131. A.Bajc
132. P.Bercz
133. T.Boonratanathanakorn
134. K.Klimiankou
135. M.Kwiatkowski
136. G.O'Shea
Red Bull
141. C.Munro
142. D.Drapac
143. C.Manarelli
144. M.Matthews
145. T.Roe
146. A.Semple
147. M.Shahrulnizam
148. S.Vicelich
149. J.Williamson
Yamaha
151. R.Janse van Rensburg
152. J.Cancino
153. S.Entino
154. N.Gauer
155. G.Lejman
156. Y.Monsalve
157. J.Pantano Gómez
158. A.RodrÃguez
Pendleton's
161. B.Moore
162. C.Anguilet
163. F.Colop
164. M.Cronshaw
165. H.Kiprotich
166. S.O'Neill
167. E.Viviani
Team 1
171. G.Scarponi
172. J.Gmelich
173. R.Harvey
174. V.Jacquier
175. A.Ryabkin
176. E.Sapela
177. G.Van der Sanden
178. P.Vaslin
179. T.Vernaeckt
Bacardi
181. G.Tieri
182. E.Battaglin
183. G.Dicara
184. L.Germini
185. A.Sombili
186. I.Zito
Tinkoff
191. N.Novikov
192. K.Kuperasov
193. V.Manakov
194. V.Shmalko
195. G.Tatarinov
196. M.Toporishchev
Pearl
201. V.Pereira
202. I.Fernandes
203. D.Gonçalves
204. P.Lechuga
205. J.Simón
206. A.Torres
Domina Vacanze
211. B.Myagmarsuren
212. N.Arndt
213. M.Haller
214. T.Hasibeder
215. I.Speirs
216. J.Sütterlin
YouTwit
221. S.Batchelor
222. L.Craddock
223. M.Green
224. T.Last
225. R.Lloyd
226. J.McEvoy
227. M.Rudling
228. T.Snape
229. F.de Romijn
Control
231. A.Sungantiev
232. B.Akdilek
233. J.Chavarria
234. A.El Hady
235. M.Hasnaoui
236. D.Mkrtehyan
237. R.Perusko
238. Y.Shimada
239. D.Toth
Carmeuse
241. W.Van Den Eynde
242. J.Adams
243. D.Beatse
244. J.Debusschere
245. A.Fenn
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 28-01-2011 12:33
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This is a proper test of my lads. hope the guest riders will be obedient |
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| CrueTrue |
Posted on 28-01-2011 12:46
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Isn't this my first Avenir race? Yay  |
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| SotD |
Posted on 28-01-2011 12:48
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Will be interesting to see... I think I have a rider for pretty much all the stages, so I hope to see them in front, eventhough I suspect a bad sprinting result, like always.
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| mb2612 |
Posted on 28-01-2011 13:09
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My one man team 
Anyway, I am really looking forwards to this as it may be my best hope for victory over the rest of the season.
Edited by mb2612 on 28-01-2011 13:09
 [url=www.pcmdaily.com/forum/viewthread.php?thread_id=33182] Team Santander Media Thread[/url]
Please assume I am joking unless otherwise stated |
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| Smowz |
Posted on 28-01-2011 16:23
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A really nice and detailed preview - I agree Red Bull's best chances are in sprints. I am hoping that Manarelli looks for Kennaugh's wheel or 100% Me favourite tactic of switching lead out duties to the least likely candidate resurfaces itself!
Plenty of riders from the Red Bull mainly Oceanic squad, hoping to see the team involved in breakaways in the first seven stages - will be intrigued to see if Munro can manage a top 20 performance.
I have a funny feeling about the big differences between the top two and the rest possibly giving a surprise result!
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| mattiasgt |
Posted on 28-01-2011 19:34
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So Danacik actually got a shot at the podium, that was not expected. Thought there would be better riders here, but I had not looked through the Db. Well, he is practically on his own, so let see how he does.
(Previously) Manager of Koenigsegg
Koenigsegg: ( Media)
Livin' Loud |
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 30-01-2011 12:47
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Smowz wrote:
I have a funny feeling about the big differences between the top two and the rest possibly giving a surprise result!
A surprise result, as in not one of Madrazo or Tenorio winning?
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| Smowz |
Posted on 30-01-2011 14:12
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SportingNonsense wrote:
Smowz wrote:
I have a funny feeling about the big differences between the top two and the rest possibly giving a surprise result!
A surprise result, as in not one of Madrazo or Tenorio winning?
Yes much like what we had in the U23 season with breakaways having a much greater chance of success - a goodish rouler who can climb a bit gets a big enough lead to defend in the last three stages.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 30-01-2011 14:26
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We've seen it before in Avenir - I think it was the year Pluchkin won when Kolesnikov spent a long time in the race lead before relinquishing it in the final couple of stages.
Santander and Festina do have the numbers to chase if need be, so it wont be easy to topple them
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 30-01-2011 22:15
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oh, not anguilet. |
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| Ad Bot |
Posted on 09-12-2025 05:11
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| Smowz |
Posted on 30-01-2011 22:25
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Happy with that start - the team are pulling for Manarelli with Timmy Roe, a good choice to go for mountains jersey.
It was a bit lumpy (any lumps for the young Brazilian is a problem) so to get near a podium is good. Nethertheless we hope for an improvement on Stage two despite the late climb.
Stage three will be a dangerous one - breakaway territory mark my words
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| fenian_1234 |
Posted on 30-01-2011 22:38
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Festina are winning just about everything at the moment. |
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| Deadpool |
Posted on 30-01-2011 23:15
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Disappointed Bar wasn't up there, but I'll take the podium spot from Margalit and the sixth from Cohen. Pleasant surprises there... |
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| SotD |
Posted on 31-01-2011 09:19
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fenian_1234 wrote:
Festina are winning just about everything at the moment.
But it's the first time in half a year or so that I win a bunch sprint
Very pleassant surprise here. I though Vingerling would be around 5th on the flats, but seems Bernaudeau made a good leadout.
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| SotD |
Posted on 31-01-2011 13:40
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Great jump from Madrazo... Too bad Bernaudeau didn't get that sprint win in the start. He could've jumped to 3rd or so GC. But 1st, 4th and 6th is very very good in the GC. Seems my team is very strong in these flat stages, in the mountains though, Madrazo is on his own.
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| SportingNonsense |
Posted on 31-01-2011 13:41
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Meanwhile a somewhat frustrating start for 100% Me - Kennaugh has shown he is the fastest sprinter, just not much luck yet.
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| wackojackohighcliffe |
Posted on 31-01-2011 16:24
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Hello, stage win. |
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| SotD |
Posted on 31-01-2011 18:32
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Only 20 seconds back at this point seems very good for Madrazo. Main problem is that Tenorio is better in every aspect. He is a better climber, a better TT'er and a better fighter, so I should be happy for 2nd here.
Too bad that both my TT'ers crashed here. Hopefully they aren't injured. The flat stage next should show whether Bernaudeau is injured or not.
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| fenian_1234 |
Posted on 31-01-2011 19:31
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Fine ride from Summerhill there. |
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