One of the more iconic races of the IRL and MGUCI calendar, the Strade Bianche leads us onto the white roads of Tuscany. It has a rich history going back to 2009, in which there hasn’t been a single repeat winner. A few riders could change that this year, one stands out in particular, but competition will be fierce. And despite some patterns, gravel roads can lead to surprises as well. We'll see how it plays out in the report by Imladrik.
Profile
After a pretty calm first half with only one major climb - the longest of the day -, things pick up in the final 80 kilometers. The white roads await and they will push the riders to their limit. Few long hills accompany them, but it’s still a constant up and down with short ramps and quick downhills. This holds all the way through to the finish line, where we’ve seen everything from solo victories to sprints from groups as large as 16 over the last few years.
Favorites
FL
MM
HI
ST
RS
CO
SP
AC
DH
Benoot
71
78
81
75
74
76
69
71
66
Van der Poel
73
74
77
78
77
72
72
77
79
Jorgenson
73
79
78
79
78
68
65
71
69
Hirschi
71
79
81
78
78
66
66
75
77
Schmid
72
79
80
73
78
69
70
79
74
Van Niekerk
69
78
80
72
75
66
64
74
71
Van Dijke
69
77
80
74
75
67
71
74
72
McCarthy
68
73
80
77
72
67
63
71
69
Müller
70
74
80
76
71
68
66
73
63
Simmons
72
77
79
73
76
67
68
79
72
Historically, this race has favored puncheurs who are not completely hopeless on cobbles. Benoot is of course the poster child for this and he has a good track record here, having finished 3rd and 2nd in the last two years. Last year’s winner, though, was Van der Poel, who finished solo ahead of Jorgenson. It’s the same trio that dominated Viana do Castelo, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see all three of them on the podium again.
Working against that are many of the best puncheurs of the division. Van Niekerk and Hirschi finished 4th and 5th, respectively, last year. Schmid and Van Dijke join the fold as riders of similar caliber, both surely gunning for a Top 5 as well.
Müller also already has a strong result to his name here, finishing 4th in 2024 – one place behind McCarthy. The Australian competes in his 7th (!) edition, has already won the race in 2021 and has four more Top 6 results. Perhaps the most accomplished rider in this race’s history, age has taken its toll on him, but he should still aim for at least the Top 10. Simmons, meanwhile, makes his Strade Bianche debut with the same goal.
Cobbles Specialists
FL
MM
HI
ST
RS
CO
SP
AC
DH
Per
79
69
70
74
75
82
74
74
72
Girmay
77
68
71
76
76
81
77
76
71
Gamper
77
65
67
77
77
81
64
71
72
Jacobs
76
65
69
77
76
79
67
68
73
Moulingui
74
62
71
71
71
78
65
68
71
Owen
73
67
69
73
71
78
64
71
74
Orue
69
57
64
77
70
78
53
58
73
Habimana
74
70
75
74
73
77
66
71
68
Pithie
74
69
72
76
74
77
73
74
72
Ulloa
72
68
70
73
72
77
68
68
64
Tediashvili
75
68
70
76
78
77
71
71
66
Bohli
74
66
68
79
75
77
74
68
68
Nareklishvili
72
64
66
73
73
77
64
71
62
Kolev
75
57
62
73
71
77
62
67
64
Lapeira
77
71
72
74
73
76
76
74
71
Stewart
77
67
72
74
77
76
76
71
68
Centrone
74
67
71
72
67
76
53
58
75
Hvideberg
78
67
70
74
74
76
65
65
65
Jansen
72
67
70
75
72
76
75
70
65
Abrahamsen
77
71
75
73
76
75
72
75
67
Pure cobbles riders typically don’t win here, but they have certainly been competitive, as evidenced most recently by Wisniowski and Girmay finishing 7th and 18th last year, respectively. The Eritrean is back and, alongside Per, perhaps the strongest candidate of this group.
Outside of those two, the focus among the riders listed here should probably be on the most versatile riders who combine decent-ish hill stats with strong stamina and a good sprint. Grieg comes with a whole bunch of these to support or even supplant Per, including youngster Pithie, who sensationally finished 6th here last year, Bohli, Jansen and Abrahamsen.
Other notable riders in this category include the usual allrounder suspects: Tediashvili, Lapeira and Stewart will always be names to look out for, Hvideberg finished in the Top 30 last year, and if downhill has a significant impact here as has been suggested in the offseason, maybe keep an eye out for Centrone.
Pure Puncheurs
FL
MM
HI
ST
RS
CO
SP
AC
DH
Eiking
71
75
81
78
74
54
68
76
69
De Bie
69
74
80
71
70
64
68
69
61
Eriksson
72
73
79
78
74
65
65
76
71
Errazkin
71
77
79
76
75
65
63
73
67
Kron
73
75
79
75
75
64
66
73
71
Kanerva
69
72
79
75
69
55
64
76
69
Gebrezgabihier
68
75
79
74
74
53
67
69
66
Yates
72
74
79
74
67
50
75
77
62
Vakoc
69
74
79
72
68
50
69
71
64
Lagane
70
74
78
70
71
65
76
77
63
Madouas
74
77
78
76
73
60
73
73
68
Wandahl
71
74
78
76
76
58
67
75
72
Kelderman
66
73
78
74
69
58
63
66
67
Govekar
72
75
78
73
75
58
70
78
71
Gladysh
72
74
77
73
72
61
71
76
69
Paez
73
75
77
74
70
58
73
76
65
There are other puncheurs here who have missed the cut to be considered not-completely-hopeless-on-cobbles, some by just a tiny bit, others by quite a bit more. For the former, the strong Bacharu Mamachari Faito! duo of Eriksson and Lagane stand out, as does De Bie. The Belgian veteran lacks some decent punch though, which might hinder him, same for Errazkin and Kron.
Then you have riders like Madouas, Govekar, Gladysh or Paez, who would be tremendous for this type of course if it weren’t for their terrible cobbles skills. But depending on how the race will be raced, perhaps don’t fully discount them yet.
A final shoutout might give them some hope: 2015 winner Kelderman, probably the most experienced rider on these streets with 8 participations already under his belt, obviously has his best years behind him, but has been a regular Top 10 to Top 15 finisher over the years, with a 16th place as recently as last year, when he was already a good bit past his peak. If he could do it, why not anyone else on this list?
Should be an entertaining race. First (?) hilly classic of the season brings a lot of anxiety with it. How does your hills leader compare with the rest of the field? And, especially, the question everyone asks for the last few years, who tf asked for cobbles in Strade Bianche?
I’m bringing the popcorn out for the battle between the big guns Should be interesting! We’re just here to fill up, don’t expect anything to be honest.
Thanks cunego for the preview!
MG - Lotto - Caloi
[MG] New Manager of the Year - PCM.daily Awards 2022
Van Der Poel and Hirschi my big favorites here with VdP as the main one. Downhill plays a role on the gravel and I think that is what pushes it for me
Would have agreed with this completely if the manager for Bianchi hadn't made a braindead move in planning
At some point I tried Lapeira and VdP in this together and it went terrible (VdP stays at the back as he has a free role so it takes him longer to come through the group and sometimes the race is gone), while Lapeira doesn't climb well enough to get through the white roads.
Okay i thought no worries I won't do that in season.
Soo.......... imagine my surprise looking at the startlist i've double checked and i've just not changed back to my original plan.
Can VdP still win yesss have i made it 100x harder for him also yes
To me Hirschi, Schmiid must have huge chances with their DH stat, also watch out for Sprenger for Spark with 80+ DH
And for similar reasons i wouldn't be high on Benoot here or Muller think the DH/Gravel may just ruin their stamina, similar comments apply to Per the course is probably too hard.
Van Der Poel and Hirschi my big favorites here with VdP as the main one. Downhill plays a role on the gravel and I think that is what pushes it for me
Would have agreed with this completely if the manager for Bianchi hadn't made a braindead move in planning
At some point I tried Lapeira and VdP in this together and it went terrible (VdP stays at the back as he has a free role so it takes him longer to come through the group and sometimes the race is gone), while Lapeira doesn't climb well enough to get through the white roads.
Okay i thought no worries I won't do that in season.
Soo.......... imagine my surprise looking at the startlist i've double checked and i've just not changed back to my original plan.
Can VdP still win yesss have i made it 100x harder for him also yes
To me Hirschi, Schmiid must have huge chances with their DH stat, also watch out for Sprenger for Spark with 80+ DH
And for similar reasons i wouldn't be high on Benoot here or Muller think the DH/Gravel may just ruin their stamina, similar comments apply to Per the course is probably too hard.
Good to hear that you can make mistakes in planning aswell, feels good for me and everyone else
To me Hirschi, Schmiid must have huge chances with their DH stat, also watch out for Sprenger for Spark with 80+ DH
And for similar reasons i wouldn't be high on Benoot here or Muller think the DH/Gravel may just ruin their stamina, similar comments apply to Per the course is probably too hard.
I thought about highlighting DH more, as I know you found some influence in your testing (and Heine maybe, too). But looking at last year with the same engine already, places 2 through 4 had 69, 66 and 71 DH, all ahead of Hirschi. Maybe that's the outlier compared to your tests which are more representative as a baseline, but it was enough for me to not put too much emphasis on it. I guess we'll find out
As for my team, I think Madouas is probably too weak on cobbles, and I hope his inclusion doesn't mess up the hierarchy with Girmay and Habimana. Both of them are Top 15 material I reckon, and I hope at least one of them gets there. Three riders in the points (either Madouas or Kuypers as the third) would be ideal.
Van Der Poel and Hirschi my big favorites here with VdP as the main one. Downhill plays a role on the gravel and I think that is what pushes it for me
Would have agreed with this completely if the manager for Bianchi hadn't made a braindead move in planning
At some point I tried Lapeira and VdP in this together and it went terrible (VdP stays at the back as he has a free role so it takes him longer to come through the group and sometimes the race is gone), while Lapeira doesn't climb well enough to get through the white roads.
Okay i thought no worries I won't do that in season.
Soo.......... imagine my surprise looking at the startlist i've double checked and i've just not changed back to my original plan.
Can VdP still win yesss have i made it 100x harder for him also yes
To me Hirschi, Schmiid must have huge chances with their DH stat, also watch out for Sprenger for Spark with 80+ DH
And for similar reasons i wouldn't be high on Benoot here or Muller think the DH/Gravel may just ruin their stamina, similar comments apply to Per the course is probably too hard.
So you're saying I should start asking for this race to be moved to PTHC so I can win it with 85 DH Zumer?
To me Hirschi, Schmiid must have huge chances with their DH stat, also watch out for Sprenger for Spark with 80+ DH
And for similar reasons i wouldn't be high on Benoot here or Muller think the DH/Gravel may just ruin their stamina, similar comments apply to Per the course is probably too hard.
I thought about highlighting DH more, as I know you found some influence in your testing (and Heine maybe, too). But looking at last year with the same engine already, places 2 through 4 had 69, 66 and 71 DH, all ahead of Hirschi. Maybe that's the outlier compared to your tests which are more representative as a baseline, but it was enough for me to not put too much emphasis on it. I guess we'll find out
As for my team, I think Madouas is probably too weak on cobbles, and I hope his inclusion doesn't mess up the hierarchy with Girmay and Habimana. Both of them are Top 15 material I reckon, and I hope at least one of them gets there. Three riders in the points (either Madouas or Kuypers as the third) would be ideal.
I would say 70+ is more then enough; there are definitely other factors at play than just DH but a very high DH stat seems to have a huge impact i.e Spengler will probably be in the Benoot range in this race to me because of the offset impact of both. while Sprenger can climb well enough and has good ST which are both factors here for sure.
Theres also things like I mentioned above which role your riders get is going to have a impact because the roads are narrow and leaders tend to be further forward in the bunch a badly positioned rider with the ideal stats (VdP) will still be worse then a less ideal rider who hasn't used their energy up
Van Der Poel and Hirschi my big favorites here with VdP as the main one. Downhill plays a role on the gravel and I think that is what pushes it for me
Would have agreed with this completely if the manager for Bianchi hadn't made a braindead move in planning
At some point I tried Lapeira and VdP in this together and it went terrible (VdP stays at the back as he has a free role so it takes him longer to come through the group and sometimes the race is gone), while Lapeira doesn't climb well enough to get through the white roads.
Okay i thought no worries I won't do that in season.
Soo.......... imagine my surprise looking at the startlist i've double checked and i've just not changed back to my original plan.
Can VdP still win yesss have i made it 100x harder for him also yes
To me Hirschi, Schmiid must have huge chances with their DH stat, also watch out for Sprenger for Spark with 80+ DH
And for similar reasons i wouldn't be high on Benoot here or Muller think the DH/Gravel may just ruin their stamina, similar comments apply to Per the course is probably too hard.
So you're saying I should start asking for this race to be moved to PTHC so I can win it with 85 DH Zumer?
Yeah he'd very good. In testing we saw Kwanele Jele be top 15/10 repeatedly. Pidcock is obviously the ideal rider for this in theory
First goal race of the season! Looking for a win from our superstar Jorgenson. Had I know about DH effect, I probably would have brought Canal instead of JPL here. But, maybe that would have messed up PCM with Jorgenson's chances? Regardless...
Thanks for the preview and looking forward to the report!
Strade Bianche 
Should be interesting! We’re just here to fill up, don’t expect anything to be honest.
